Michigan 8th Best Program of the last 40 years: Reddit User Algorithm
Link to today's Michigan entry:
https://www.reddit.com/r/CFB/comments/15turjk/ranking_the_top_131_fbs_programs_of_the_last_40/
Link to how the rankings work:
https://www.reddit.com/r/CFB/comments/12nja3j/ranking_the_top_131_fbs_programs_of_the_last_40/
"Michigan may have been ranked behind Nebraska in 1997 for me, but the Wolverines get the last laugh by ranking above the Huskers over the last 40 years. Michigan comes in 2nd in the Big Ten with a #8 overall ranking, pretty good considering the 7 year “dark period” under Rich Rodriguez and Brady Hoke. Michigan’s had 16 AP Top 10 finishes over the last 40 years, very impressive consistency thanks to coaches like Bo Schembechler, Gary Moeller, Lloyd Carr, and Jim Harbaugh. Michigan has a strong case to be the GOAT college football program if we go beyond 40 years, ranking 1st in wins (989), 3rd in win percentage (.731), 2nd in national titles (11), 3rd in consensus All-Americans (87), and 2nd in weeks spent in the AP Poll (903)."
8Michigan
9Nebraska
10Clemson
11USC
12Penn State
13LSU
14Notre Dame
15Auburn
16Texas
17Tennessee
18Oregon
19Virginia Tech
20Texas A&M
21Wisconsin
22Washington
23Iow
24West Virginia
25Boise State
26UCLA
27Oklahoma State
28BYU
29Michigan State
Remaining teams in the countdown:
Alabama, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, Miami (FL), Ohio State, Oklahoma
All teams with multiple titles in that time period.
August 17th, 2023 at 7:25 PM ^
Meh. What have you done for me lately? I'm good.
August 18th, 2023 at 8:54 AM ^
Every year counts.
In fact, I'm highly irritated by his preferring Nebraska over Michigan in 1997.
August 18th, 2023 at 10:43 AM ^
I smell recency bias with UGA being above us. After polymath Herschell Walker left, they spent ~20 years in the darkness of mediocrity far more so than UM. If you're looking at 40 years, Auburn, Tennessee, LSU, ND, have had better average runs than UGA over that whole period. If you're looking at the last 5 years, then sure. But, this is way off as a tetra-decade snapshot. We spent ~6 of those years engaged in mediocrity. UGA went 96-63-1 from 1989-2000, followed by Mark Richt who managed a 74% win rate, but never got over the hump to elite. Vince Dooley's last 6 years, 1983-1988 (to go back a full 40) saw him go 50-18-2 with zero SEC titles. That's 18 of the 40 years in profound mediocrity. To rank them above ND/UM is absolutely ridiculous recency/SEC bias.
August 18th, 2023 at 11:01 AM ^
Georgia has more national championships, total wins (and fewer losses), and 10+ win seasons than we do in this time period. The entire series/algorithm by the Reddit poster has been very informative and insightful. I would encourage people to check it out.
August 18th, 2023 at 11:10 AM ^
Is it really recency bias, though?
Michigan stats, as listed in the Reddit post:
-
349-140-5 record
-
1 national title
-
13 conference titles
-
15-21 bowl record
-
32 consensus All-Americans
-
183 NFL players drafted
UGA stats that I dug up:
- 363-137-5 record
- 2 national titles
- 4 conference titles
- 27-10-2 bowl record
- 22 consensus All-Americans
- 208 NFL players drafted
This tells me that Georgia has been, overall, more successful than Michigan. The lack of conference titles can be attributed to the fact that they were second fiddle to UF during the Spurrier years and couldn't overcome the SEC west teams for a long stretch. Otherwise, better record, more national titles, more bowl games, better bowl record, and more players drafted.
EDIT: also, UGA has 18 seasons with 10+ wins compared to 16 for Michigan.
August 18th, 2023 at 11:29 AM ^
So, conference titles don't matter? The SEC wasn't regarded as the premier conference until the last 15 years, so winning 1 per decade is questionable. Also, I would surmise that we likely have a stronger strength of schedule.
August 18th, 2023 at 11:38 AM ^
You keep moving the goalposts, I see. To say that the SEC was only considered a premier conference until the late 2000s is patently absurd.
The SEC won 4 national titles in the 90s (92 Alabama, 93 Auburn, 96 Florida, 98 Tennessee).
They won 5 national titles in the 00's (06 and 08 Florida, 03 and 07 LSU, 09 Alabama).
As for winning only 4 conference titles in that span, asked and answered. UGA was UF's bitch in the 90s and 00s like we were osu's for pretty much all the 2000s and 2010s.
As for SOS, I don't have it for 40 years, but there is a reddit post showing SOS over the 1998-2017 period and UGA comes in at #20 while Michigan is #26.
August 18th, 2023 at 1:14 PM ^
Auburn wasnt national champs in 1993...that was FSU
August 18th, 2023 at 2:43 PM ^
I haven't moved any goalposts. Four conference championships in 40 years says all it needs to, on its own. And you have confirmed what I said, that the SEC was a top conference before the mid-aughts, but wasn't the juggernaut that it later became. As for SOS, this is a 40-year snapshot, and UM used to play incredibly difficult OOC schedules before they went the lame-ball money-grabbing way of everyone else. You've quoted a Reddit SOS from that period of diminishing OOC scheduling. Picking 3 years prior to that at random, the schedules are below, and qualitatively confirm my premise. UGA didn't play a ranked OOC team, while UM scheduled three top-five teams. Again, this is a 40-year snapshot. So wins are aren't a measuring stick in a vacuum.
Unquestionably, the last 2 years have been incredibly special for UGA. And while it isn't UM blowing UGA away over that 40-year period- it's obviously very close- it still appears to me to be recency bias that they are that high. Had you, in August, 2021, asked what the average UGA fan thought of the previous 38 years, and asked the average UM fan the same, I think Dawgs fans would have felt much more aggrieved at their performance, and felt like they had lived for generations in the shadows of FL, Tenn, Alabama, and even Auburn. The average UM fan would have felt like their team had underperformed at times, but was still relatively elite for most of that period, and hadn't lived in OSU's shadow until the previous 15 years.
1984
UGA, So Miss, Ga Tech, Memphis
UM: #1 Miami, #16 Washington (and a 9-game B1G schedule)
1990
UGA: So Miss, East Carolina, Ga Tech
UM: #4 Notre Dame, UCLA, Maryland
1996
UGA So Miss, Texas Tech, Ga Tech
UM: #5 Colorado, Boston College, UCLA
August 18th, 2023 at 1:32 PM ^
IMO, the biggest factors should be 1) overall record, 2) national titles, and 3) conference titles.
The bowl record is already factored into #1, and as it's a team sport, individual accomplishments shouldn't matter that much - though if you do want to count them, college awards should matter more than NFL Draft status. College football may be a feeder for the NFL, but that's not why it exists.
1) - It's close but a slight edge to UGA
2) - UGA has the edge, by 2-1
3) - Michigan has a decisive edge (13-4). In fairness, the SEC went to a title game in 1992 while the Big Ten didn't until 2011, so it was easier to win a league title in the latter, but Michigan was the Big Ten's official representative 10 of those years.
If you want to count individual accomplishments, Michigan has the edge in All-Americans (32-22) and Heismans (2-1)
I think that's pretty close overall.
August 19th, 2023 at 12:42 PM ^
Up until their recent stretch of absolute dominance, I thought Georgia and Michigan were remarkably similar programs in the modern era (whatever that means). Michigan is also ascendant at the same time, but UGA has the clear lead right now.
August 18th, 2023 at 4:02 PM ^
Yeah it's kind of a shoulder shrug but somewhat interesting and I can't really disagree with the slotting.
Only question I have is - why 40 years? Seems pretty arbitrary. If we go 50 years is Michigan top 5? Maybe, or closer to it. 20 years? We're lower.
August 17th, 2023 at 7:29 PM ^
Georgia has done themselves a lot of favors the last 2 years for a list like this….pre Kirby Smart I would have said they were probably around like the 12-15 spot at best, they now find themselves top 7 at worst.
edit: also, considering the “multiple national championships” thing seems to be a big draw, I’m surprised to see LSU that far down, and Miami top 7 at worst. Miami has been mediocre at best for about half of this time period.
August 17th, 2023 at 7:46 PM ^
LSU was bad in the 1990s. 7 losing records out of 10, a 2-9 season (1992), a 3-8 season (1999) and 2 other 4-7 seasons (1998 & 1994, plus 1989, just outside of the 1990s). Add it all up, it's an aggergate losing record for the 1990s as a whole. So that dragged them down.
Miami, meanwhile, hasn't had a season record worse than 5-7. That was last year and 2007. They also went 5-6 in 1997, but otherwise they've always won 6+ games every year.
------------
I've been following this Reddit series myself. I am a data dork and keep my own database of scores and such. My own algorithm, I had LSU pegged #14 for the 1983-2022 time period. So #13 was actually higher than I thought. FWIW, I had Michigan pegged #6, they came in #8 instead.
My personal top 20 (1983-2022), FWIW: Ohio State, Alabama, Florida, FSU, Oklahoma, Michigan, Georgia, USC, Miami FLA, Notre Dame, Nebraska, Penn State, Auburn, LSU, Clemson, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, Oregon, Washington.
August 17th, 2023 at 8:04 PM ^
Child of the 90s ignorance here, was mostly unaware of programs who were mediocre in that era, so thanks for clearing it up. Still feel like their 3 national championships would bump them up a little, but understood.
edit: but now thinking even more, the 2007 National Championship was a little underwhelming with 2 losses after that wild season. If there was ever a season for a 12 team playoff, 2007 was it.
Also, LSU having to play Bama twice in 2012 was BS, and they likely would have won that NC in the pre 98 era ranking system.
okay, done talking about LSU, lol
August 17th, 2023 at 9:09 PM ^
Miami is a great barometer for determining how long you've been a CFB fan. If you're a real blue hair Miami was mostly a middling independent. If you're 40-60 they were this uber-talented team that dominated on the field for stretches and always had an air of swag and importance that helped define the 80s/90s. If you're 20-30 you maybe saw the tail end of their dominance and otherwise have watched 2 decades of unmet hype. Like, half the guys on a college football roster weren't alive the last time Miami finished the year ranked in the top-10 of the AP poll. It's really starting to look like the Canes just had some systemic advantages for a couple of decades and those times ain't coming back.
August 17th, 2023 at 11:39 PM ^
I remember late 90’s and very early 2000s Miami well. Miami and FSU were the original “Bama type” teams in my memories as a kid and preteen (Also Michigan of course, lol, coming off the 97 champ) The stars of the 2001 Miami roster basically dominated the peak of my NFL watching years too. So many studs on that team. But once Clinton Portis left, Miami fell off the map completely it seemed. And like you said, it seems they may be destined for mostly mediocre football for years to come.
August 18th, 2023 at 8:23 AM ^
When Miami was in the Big East, they won 9 conference titles, including two national titles, two finishes at #2 in the country, and one finish at #3.
Since they joined the ACC beginning in 2004, all they have is two division titles, with the highest national ranking of #11 in two seasons.
August 18th, 2023 at 11:00 AM ^
I don't think they were "Bama type", in the sense that Saban has built Bama in a much more deliberate way than Miami and FSU were built. Saban has built an organization. I agree with the OP that Miami and FSU were the beneficiaries of systemic recruiting and scheme advantages, utilizing FL's immense talent reservoir while also switching to a modern method of emphasizing speed on D and a pro-style attack on O. The confluence of these factors made those teams the models for the pre-spread, pro-style elites of the late 80's to mid aughts, kind of ending with the USC dynasty. Since then, recruiting has become much more nationalized, and the organizational model pioneered by Saban has become the norm, as well as the spread-to-pass offense. Once everyone caught on, and rebuilt their systems, Miami's huge disadvantages (location, school size, stadium, local support) have buried them from whence they will never return. FSU, on the other hand, as a huge state school, just needs the right coach to do what Smart/Saban/the string of OSU criminals have done.
August 17th, 2023 at 7:46 PM ^
Can't hate on that ranking to be honest. We have been consistently a conference champion and 10 win team over the past 40 years, but lack of Championships likely driving the ranking down (e.g., programs like Miami with MUCH more variance).
August 18th, 2023 at 10:59 AM ^
Yup, I've been following along, and we're the highest ranked program with less than 2 Natty's in the 40 year time frame, which tracks. While we are definitely consistent, even despite the 7 year walk through the wilderness, the lack of top line achievements drags us down. Add one more Natty in those 40 years and we're probably top 5 easily.
August 18th, 2023 at 11:04 AM ^
There are some teams who hit it right here and there and win natties, that are otherwise shitshows and shouldn't be ranked above teams like UM, ND; like Auburn, LSU for a long time over the last 40 years, and even Miami for the last 20 years. Miami is actually really hard to place. A tale of two vastly different worlds.
August 17th, 2023 at 7:50 PM ^
I have been following this for a while. I'm a bit surprised to see us in front of teams with multiple titles, but it's just some guys algorithm.
What really saves Michigan in this algorithm is the 31 top 25 caliber seasons. What hurts us is the lack of #1/2 teams.
August 17th, 2023 at 7:58 PM ^
Given that almost 20% of that stretch was coached by RR and Hoke, I can't complain with us still being in the top 10.
August 17th, 2023 at 9:27 PM ^
Just think where Michigan would have been had Harbaugh been given the chance to coach after LC after the Richrod fiasco. Odds are a lot better than 8th but then again, we never know what would have been the outcome of a younger Harbaugh at Michigan
August 17th, 2023 at 11:29 PM ^
Fake News
August 17th, 2023 at 11:53 PM ^
Michigan may have been ranked behind Nebraska in 1997 for me, but the Wolverines get the last laugh by ranking above the Huskers over the last 40 years
Scott Frost already made sure we had the last laugh.
August 18th, 2023 at 5:52 AM ^
Oh, not to be all pedantic and stuff, but ... perhaps that Reddit user should title his ranking as the list of the "most successful" programs in that time, or "winningest," though those titles have their own problems.
Regardless, when you factor in things like game-day experience; uniforms; educated/dedicated fan-base; student-athlete experience; value of degree; fight song; and "overall coolness, dammit," we clearly are the best.
August 19th, 2023 at 1:00 PM ^
And, if our song is anything to go by, also the leaders!
August 18th, 2023 at 7:07 AM ^
But #1 in our hearts
August 18th, 2023 at 7:09 AM ^
internet rando desires attention and karma, makes up algorithm to get it.
August 18th, 2023 at 10:02 AM ^
this is a bit rude. he puts a lot of work into it and a lot of people find it enjoyable. the countdown to #1 has been a pretty fun ride.
August 18th, 2023 at 7:48 AM ^
Bama and OSU are 1 and 2. Book it. Even when OSU was struggling with Cooper, they were winning 10 games.
Bama has just won a ton of titles. Don't see how anyone surpasses them
August 18th, 2023 at 11:26 AM ^
I've been saying OSU is #1 from the beginning, but a lot of people think it's Bama.
It's really been shitty luck that our primary rival happens to be the most dominant college football program of the last 40 years.
August 18th, 2023 at 11:48 PM ^
Michigan, best program over 130 years