Michigan #25 in PFF ELO Rankings
Top three: (1) Alabama, (2) Clemson, and (3) OSU.
National Championship Win Probability: 0.0%
Conference Championship Win Probability: 5.0%
Highest-Graded Returning Player: WR Ronnie Bell (72.2)
The Wolverines always have a tough path to get to the Big Ten title game. They have the same odds as Penn State, with Ohio State being the heavy favorite with a 71.4% implied probability to win the Big Ten East.
Michigan's chances will be heavily tied to the play of Cade McNamara, who posted a 70.7 PFF passing grade on 72 dropbacks last season. This could finally be the year that the Wolverines overtake a rebuilding Ohio State team if McNamara breaks out.
https://www.pff.com/news/college-football-pff-elo-rankings-for-all-130-fbs-teams-early-2021-season
I'm not sure that I agree with PFF that OSU is rebuilding.
Depends on how you define rebuilding. They do need to replace a fair bit of experience, so they’re probably a step behind Bama/Clemson. So rebuilding in that sense, but still lightyears ahead of the rest of the B1G so “rebuilding” in that sense.
I think the correct term, unfortunately, is "reloading".
To your point, "rebuilding" is probably not the word I would use to describe their season outlook. They do have decent amount of roster turnover along the offensive lines, defensive backfield and obviously at QB. I think it is safe to assume based on their recruiting that they will replace those players with future NFL draft picks as well.
I do think however it is possible, they take a step back this year based on how well they are able to break in their starting quarterback. I read a stat that this is the first year since 1952 that the starting QB at Ohio State has not attempted a pass at the collegiate level. While it's certainly possible and would be totally on brand for OSU to have that player step in and not miss a beat, I don't think it's necessarily a given. To maintain their current three year trajectory, they would need Stroud/Miller/McCord to step in and perform at the level of a first round NFL draft pick this season. While it's certainly possible the death star continues to roll on, we'll have to wait and see if that actually happens. The defense will probably be good, but not impenetrable. Taking a step back at QB might slow the offense down enough for a couple of teams to beat them in a close game. 71% probability of winning the league seems realistic to me. Likely, but not virtually a foregone conclusion.
Sigh... I know Barrett was a RS freshman who was injured his whole first year. I doubt he threw a pass before starting and the result that year was pretty good for OSU.
You could be correct. I think Barrett stepped into the starting job at some point during the season during his RS Freshman year, which maybe is technicality. It was from an ESPN article I didn't care to fact check.
Either way, things seem to always work out perfectly for some reason down in Columbus so I get "I'll believe things won't go perfectly for them when I see it" perspective and share it to some degree as well.
It was the year Braxton Miller hurt his shoulder or neck just a few weeks prior to the season starting. A flunkie MSU co worker of mine was celebrating another B10 title when the news broke in August.
Replacing a top NFL caliber qb can be tough on a team . Just look at LSU last year .
Lets just hope thats the case this year .
Since I have absolutely no idea what an "ELO Ranking" is and the linked article offers no clues, I'll just contribute this for everyone's enjoyment:
...as we enjoy another sunny and warm Blue Sky spring day.
Was about to make a similar observation. ELO to me was Jeff Lynne, not PFF.
WTF Gruuuuuuuuuuuce?
Thank you. Prompted some very fine memories.
Love me some Electric Light Orchestra!
Elo ranking is a ranking methodology used to rate participants in zero sum games, which was developed to rank chess players, although the major chess ranking organizations (FIDE/USCF) no longer use it directly.
Well played.
Elo not ELO. It's named after the guy who developed the rating system and not an acronym.
The data is rather incomplete and skewed due to the last year, don't you think?
ELO. It's no Blue Oyster Cult, it needs more Cowbell.
What about ELP?
It was a sad year when Keith Emerson, Greg Lake, and Arnold Palmer passed away.
TL/DR but what makes the OP thinks this is the year UM overtakes a reloading OSU?!?!? Our best returning player is a decent receiver with mediocre to poor hands that wouldn't see the field at O$U. I think this is the year that we clean house....again.
Its not the OP saying that. It's the text from PFF.
Hey ELO, "Don't Bring Me Down"
Best ELO song right here! ^
No love for Mr. Blue Sky?
truest post on the board in weeks. mr blue sky is a banger.
This could finally be the year that the Wolverines overtake a rebuilding Ohio State team if McNamara breaks out.
This has gotta be a troll on the writer's part. No reasonable person thinks this Michigan staff and roster are even close to Ohio State's level.
I've always wondered how closely national writers follow Michigan in the past, but this year has made it very apparent they do not follow us closely at all. A lot of media folks think we'll be the 8-9 win team we usually have been but they seem to have no idea the, uh, situation we are currently in.
What was our ranking when the season finished last year? 110th? (If it wasn't, we still looked it.) And the line about finally overtaking a "rebuilding" OSU team this year feels rather patronizing.
When this OSU quarterback who has never thrown a collegiate pass ends up throwing for 535 yards and 5 touchdowns in game one, do we even bother putting our "surprised" faces on?
I'm sorry. I'm still feeling the aftermath of last year and it's sucked any enthusiasm that I would normally have for football season.
Hard to believe that our highest rated player's PFF score is a 72....compared to the other teams in the top 25, and especially considering that recruiting hasn't been all that bad. Player development I guess....sigh:(
Ok cool...so Bama, Clemson, OSU, and Nortre Dame in playoff. Bama wins
yawn
Hey! One of those teams could be replaced by Oklahoma or Georgia! Wouldn't that be exciting?
Who cares. We are not winning shit anytime soon.
I hope and pray Cade and Gattis break out, but the Defense has to not suck too.
I’m don’t necessarily disagree with the statistic but the fact that not even 25 teams have an above 0% chance to win the national title is a problem.
Michigan is the 6th-rated 2021 Big Ten team for PFF. The Big Ten teams’ pre-season rankings: 3-Ohio State, 9-Iowa, 14-Wisconsin, 19-Penn State, 24-Indiana, 25-Michigan, 38-Minnesota, 42-Northwestern, 51-Nebraska, 56-Maryland, 70-Michigan State, 80-Purdue, 82-Illinois, 108-Rutgers
Although Michigan needed three overtimes and an impressive performance from Cade McNamara to beat “rival” Rutgers last November, with Michigan in the Top 25 and Rutgers in the Bottom 25, as famed groundskeeper Carl Spackler would say, Michigan has that going for ‘em, which is nice.
Absolutely classic line! +1
LOL, OSU only reloads like Alabama and Clemson. I still think an 8-4 record would be a great accomplishment this season. I see losses to WA, WI, PSU and OSU. There are still several toss games that if they lose could put them in the 5 to 7 win category. But it will be interesting to see how the team plays. I suppose if the offense can score points, The team could get 10 or 11 wins. We shall see.
that jeff lynne is a notorious harbaugh apologist.
wait, maybe not. what’s ELO, again?