MBB path to the NCAA Tournament
Is it possible for Michigan to still make the NCAA Tournament? Yes. We must end the regular season no lower than 6th in the B10, have at least two wins against ranked opponents and have an RPI in the high 40's or low 50's.
To end up no lower than 6th in the B10, UM must beat PSU and IA on the road and IN, NW and MSU at home. These are not gimmees and, in fact, the odds we win all five games is low, but UM is playing as well as anyone in the B10 right now (save maybe OSU) and three of these games are at home. The toughest of these games will be PSU in State College this weekend. The other road game is IA. Although IA just smoked MSU in Iowa City, they are the worst team in the B10 and we handled them relatively easily in A2.
This leaves three regular season games against ranked opponents -- IL (away), WI (home) and MN (away) -- and the B10 tourney. If we can win at least one of these three remaining regular season games against ranked opponents and our first game in the B10 tourney, UM will be 20-12 going into the second round of B10 tournament play. A win in the second round will get us to 21 wins (20 for RPI purposes), including two or three wins against top 25 opponents, with an RPI in the 40's. Additionally, UM will have ended the B10 regular season in 6th place (with sweeps against MSU and PSU, the most likely other B10 bubble teams) and come in 4th or higher in the B10 tournament. Under this scenario, unless the NCAA limits the B10 to only five bids (very unlikely), UM will be going dancing in March.
February 4th, 2011 at 5:18 AM ^
Also, a few of our losses that seemed like they could have gone either way were against very good competition. Syracuse, Ohio State (twice), and Kansas. We do have a game against Wisconsin coming up that could be a huge factor.
February 4th, 2011 at 5:44 AM ^
We really do not have any bad losses. The worst two losses are to IN (RPI 126) and NW (RPI 87) on the road. The way IN is playing, they might yet end up in the top 100 in RPI as well. In the past two weeks, IN has beaten two top 25 teams (MN and IL).
February 4th, 2011 at 1:35 PM ^
Every win by Syracuse and Kansas is going to help Michigan's RPI. Syracuse will help especially given the Big East is far and away the best conference in America.
February 4th, 2011 at 6:09 AM ^
Love your optimism, but I would be pleased with NIT this year, NCAA next year.
February 4th, 2011 at 6:22 AM ^
February 4th, 2011 at 8:13 AM ^
The most important games remaining on our schedule are PSU, MSU and NW. We cannot come in 7th in the B10 and those three teams are the competition for that spot.
PSU (5-5) and MSU (5-5) currently sit in front of us (3-7) by two games, despite the fact that we won the first head-to-head against each. We cannot afford to lose any further ground to either if the goal is to finish 6th in conference. Also, by sweeping both, we put ourselves in an advantageous position of we all end up on the bubble at the end. NW (3-7) is neck and neck with us right now, but we have a much tougher OOC schedule and higher RPI. Still, they won the first head-to-head and we need to at least split with them in the outside chance they become a bubble team.
We have eight regular season games remaining. We need to win three desperately -- PSU, MSU and NW -- plus any other three regular season games. That gets us to 19 wins and almost certainly a tie for 6th place in the B10. After that, we need to win at least one (and possibly two) B10 tournament games to get our RPI into the acceptable range. If we win in the second round, we will also probably pick up another top 25 win. That is how we get a bid to the NCAA.
February 4th, 2011 at 8:21 AM ^
Dude...its not happening
If you have to say if this scenario plays out, if this happens and we're lucky...you get what i'm saying. Lets hope for the NIT.
February 4th, 2011 at 10:12 AM ^
Division 1 has 37 conferences, each of which gets an automatic bid. All but one or two of those conferences use tournaments after the regular season to determine which team gets their automatic bid. The B10 (and presumably most conferences) is just about halfway through its regular season (e.g., UM just played its 10th game out of the 18 on the schedule).
Bottom line -- we have two months to go before at-large bids are handed out and very few teams (less than half the 68) are locks. More than half the field is still in the "if" category right now. I am just thankful that the team hasn't given up on this season as quickly as some of the people on this board.
... you get what i'm saying.
February 4th, 2011 at 7:52 AM ^
Might still be possible but there aren't really any wins that stand out
The MSU win did stand out but MSU proceeded to get blown out by Iowa the next game...other than that Mich has lost to OSU twice, Minnesota, and Wisconsin
Right now I'd say no, they'd have to beat some of those ranked teams down the stretch to even be in the discussion.
February 4th, 2011 at 9:19 AM ^
February 4th, 2011 at 7:52 AM ^
Period. No other way.
February 4th, 2011 at 8:25 AM ^
http://www.realtimerpi.com/rpi_Men.html
Check out Boston College w/ an RPI of 43 at six games above .500 with a SOS of 20.
Not including last night's loss, Michigan was three games above .500 w/ an SOS of 21 (and an RPI of 77), so now we're four games under .500. Which by my very rough estimation, means we have a shot if we go 6-2 down the stretch and then don't go out in the first game of the B1G tournament.
THis isn't like last year where we had an RPI of ~120 at this stage.
February 4th, 2011 at 8:03 AM ^
Ain't happenin'. I think M is one of the 64 best teams in the country, but the Big Ten Conference level of competition is going to make it extremely difficult to make the tourney. At the beginning of the conference season, I too, though M had a legitimate shot at the NCAA tournament. Not anymore, the conference is too tough.
Is Oakland going to make the tourney? I don't know, but they have a much better shot than M, even though we are clearly the better team. Next season expectation will be winning record in the Big Ten and decent seed in the tourney.
February 4th, 2011 at 8:30 AM ^
I'm not an optimist about this one. I love this team, but we needed to win a few of those close ones against the ranked teams.
I'm with the guy that said winning the Big 10 tourney...
February 4th, 2011 at 8:43 AM ^
This year is basically 2008/2009, but without any wins against highly ranked opponents. Even with quality wins against top 5 competition that season, we were still one of the last 4 in.
I suppose there's still a way, but it doesn't seem particularly likely.
February 4th, 2011 at 9:26 AM ^
... but there are some offsetting changes from two years ago to this year. First, the NCAA added three at-large bids by going from a 65 to a 68 team bracket. Second, the ACC is seriously down this year. The Pac 10 and SEC are also a bit down. With the expansion of the bracket and those three "power' conferences being down, the remaining three power conferences should benefit on the margin. In other words, unless we see an unusually high number of longshot upsets in conference tournaments, additional at-large bids should be available for deserving teams from the B10, B12 and Big East.
February 4th, 2011 at 2:17 PM ^
Agreed, and I like what you've said in this thread so far. The fact that we're even having this discussion is encouraging. I'm really hoping that next year will not be a (potential) bubble year.
February 4th, 2011 at 9:47 AM ^
We have shown really good signs and there have been very few games where we've absolutely not been in the game for at least half the game. Purdue and Wisconsin ended up blowouts but we were relevant in those games. The Northwestern/Indiana road losses I think were our worst played games. We have enough left on the schedule that this team could get hot and possibly get in the discussion for at large.
That being said...you are depending on this young, fairly one dimensional team to go 6-2 to get to .500 in conference the rest of the way? I think that's beyond optimistic... I think our best chance is ripping off a few wins in the Big 10 tourney like we almost did last year
February 4th, 2011 at 8:38 AM ^
The NIT would still be a very good outcome for this year, and one most of us would have gladly accepted in the preseason. I still think this team is too young to sustain the kind of streak it would take to get into the NCAA. When the refs sodomized them with what seemed like five terrible foul calls in a couple of minutes last night, they became demoralized and let up for a couple of minutes, which was just enough time for OSU to take control of the game.
An older team would have just fought harder, kept making OSU work, and hoped for things to balance out in the end. They may not have, but it would have given them a better chance at an upset.
February 4th, 2011 at 9:02 AM ^
Indiana blew Michigan out the first meeting
MSU will be wanting revenge
PSU is one of the toughest places to play in the Big Ten
Iowa is hot right now
NW easily beat Michigan the first time around
Michigan has not been consistent this year. They'll win some of these games but there has been nothing to make me believe they win them all. Michigan has played better against ranked teams this year than against unranked.
February 4th, 2011 at 11:21 AM ^
February 4th, 2011 at 2:34 PM ^
PSU beat Wisconsin, Illinois, and MSU at home this year. All ranked at the time.
Iowa had 2 nice wins recently. The blew out Indiana (something Michigan didn't do) and MSU. Not to mention the game is at Iowa this time. It "should" be a win but Michigan has played to its competition's level most of the Big Ten season.
You say NW and IU should be wins at home..really? Based off of what are you saying this? Michigan's astounding 2-4 home record since the Big Ten season started? Or off the last games when Michigan was blown out by both? If anyone is grasping at straws it is you.
As for why JB and RR are not held to the same standard, it is basketball vs football.Michigan has never been a consistent basketball power in the Big Ten as in football. Do you know when the last time Michigan won a Big Ten regular season title in basketball was? 1986. From that year until now in football Michigan has won 11. That is why they are not held to the same standard.
February 4th, 2011 at 9:24 AM ^
You lost me at "UM is playing as well as anyone in the B10 right now (save maybe OSU)". Umm...MAYBE??? As much as reality may suck, they've won 23 straight this year. Drop maybe from that sentence and maybe I read the rest of your post.
February 4th, 2011 at 9:29 AM ^
Thanks for the analysis and discussion. You've convinced me that there is still hope we can make it as an at-large team.
PSU is going to be a tough game -- we had our hands full here in AA (though the students were out of town so the crowd wasn't its best). I do like the way we've played lately, so hopefully we can contain Battle and beat them on the road.
February 4th, 2011 at 9:37 AM ^
This season would be a success if we do well in the NIT.
This season would be amazing if we do well in the NIT and Little Brother doesn't make the NCAA tournament
This season would be epic if we make the NCAA tournament and LIttle Brother does not.
I'm hoping for the "epic" option, but we'll see how the rest of the games go.
February 4th, 2011 at 9:47 AM ^
Am not too familiar with the Big Ten Tournament, so someone please explain. Does every Big Ten team make this tournament? And, isn't the winner guaranteed a NCAA berth?
February 4th, 2011 at 10:14 AM ^
All 11 teams makes the B10 Tournament. The top 5 seeds get a 1st round bye and the bottom six play each other for the three remaining 2nd round slots, at which point it becomes an 8-team tournament to the death (5 byes + 3 1st round winners = 8 teams). Winner gets the NCAA auto bid.
February 4th, 2011 at 10:58 AM ^
bracket-prognosticators state that Michigan going .500 gets us into a serious discussion to join the dance.
That would be very difficult for this young squad to accomplish, but do I believe they are not capable?
Hell no. This team has shown me it's more than capable.
Making the dance will boil down first to the continuing rate at which our team matures on/off the court. And it will likely then boil down to our game against the sparties to end the regular season.
That game is winnable too. I see a lot of fight in our team.
February 4th, 2011 at 12:29 PM ^
20 wins or the B10 tournament championship is the only way. With every loss, NIT is even looking more doubtful. Don't want to sound like Debbie Downer because I love M basketball, but reality is reality.