Is it possible for Michigan to still make the NCAA Tournament? Yes. We must end the regular season no lower than 6th in the B10, have at least two wins against ranked opponents and have an RPI in the high 40's or low 50's.
To end up no lower than 6th in the B10, UM must beat PSU and IA on the road and IN, NW and MSU at home. These are not gimmees and, in fact, the odds we win all five games is low, but UM is playing as well as anyone in the B10 right now (save maybe OSU) and three of these games are at home. The toughest of these games will be PSU in State College this weekend. The other road game is IA. Although IA just smoked MSU in Iowa City, they are the worst team in the B10 and we handled them relatively easily in A2.
This leaves three regular season games against ranked opponents -- IL (away), WI (home) and MN (away) -- and the B10 tourney. If we can win at least one of these three remaining regular season games against ranked opponents and our first game in the B10 tourney, UM will be 20-12 going into the second round of B10 tournament play. A win in the second round will get us to 21 wins (20 for RPI purposes), including two or three wins against top 25 opponents, with an RPI in the 40's. Additionally, UM will have ended the B10 regular season in 6th place (with sweeps against MSU and PSU, the most likely other B10 bubble teams) and come in 4th or higher in the B10 tournament. Under this scenario, unless the NCAA limits the B10 to only five bids (very unlikely), UM will be going dancing in March.
Hoke was top notch at this aspect of his job.