MBB: Conference Predictions and other Talking Points.
Merry Christmas fellow MGo-Bloggers! There is certainyly some Harbaugh-steria going on and rightfully so. It's been a tough non-conference season so far for our boys on the court. I was pretty bummed about our start along with many of you until I realized how bright our future is.
What do you guys think happens with our squad over the next 3 months and into next season?
I think we finish 9-7 in B1G play and grab 2 wins in the B1G tourney to finish 18-13.
That puts us on the wrong-side of the bubble and leaves us as a top NIT seed. This actually may be a plus for our young team because it likley means more basketball for our guys and some extra home games. We may be able to win the damn NIT when you think about it if our team matures.
I also think we take a game off of Ohio State and Sparty.
Ricky Doyle will emerge as a legitimate 12 and 10 guy.
Caris Levert will be in the running for B1G POY and spurn the NBA for a return to Michigan and a rare Senior season.
We will return our entire squad minus Beifeldt and return to top 10 status next season. Next season may be our best chance to win a National Title as we will be littered with upper-classmen and experience.
Things we need to do to make a National Title happen..............
1. Better player retention. It's great that we put out a lot of pros but of the 7 we've put out recently, only Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway Jr. have really contributed. Darius bounced around and Manny is in the D-League. Mitch has been hurt and not played. He needed another year or 2 of development. Nik is mired behind a more talented player in Maclemore and is hardly playing at all in Sacramento. GR3 is hardly logging any minutes off of the bench in Minnesota. As a fan of these guys I won't judge them for leaving early but it's hard to argue with the results in favor of them having been ready for the jump to the NBA. All 3 are getting paid a lot of money....but all 3 could have certainly benefitted from another year of college ball. The turnover that Michigan experienced last season should not ever happen again. Somewhere the ball was dropped and losing 3 sophomores to the draft and 1 5th year transfer is just ridiculous attrition. We need all of our guns back in 2015/2016.
2. We need another elite recruit. We've been in on a lot of top notch recruits and been left at the alter time and time again. Beilein has got to land a Thornton/Winston or a Battle. We cannont keep taking developmental flyers on our schollies. We need some more elite talent in Ann Arbor. 3 stars that play like 3 stars and 4/5 stars that arent ready to contribute in accordance to their star ratings will spawn the regression we are currently seeing this season. We need some talent infusion. There is no excuse to not land a Deangelo Russell/Devin Booker or Stanley Johnson type player given the success of our program. We need to recruit better.
3. In-game development this season will be huge. Beilein is a master at this and we need this entire freshman class to be ready for the Big Show next November. They need to be good enough to win a B1G title with. Simple as that. We have the potential to be a dynamic and athletic team next season with a ton of experience. Giving the young bucks quality minutes will be key this season....even if we take some lumps in the process.
4. Caris Levert needs to return for his Senior Season. I'll re-iterate this. Yes, I know Caris is viewed as a top 16-20 pick. He could technically go and get paid. If that is his sole motive then he likely will. However, Caris has an unorthodox game that still needs development. He has not shot the ball well and is still inconsistent. He is a great talent but with his growth over the past 2 years, 1 more year of development could lead Caris into the Naismith category and a potential top 5 status as an out-going Senior. He could also throw on another 10-15lbs of muscle and take his game to the next stratosphere. i really feel that if Caris leaves too early he could end up D-League like Manny Harris. If he stays and fully develops, he could conversley be the next Jamal Crawford. He has a lot of untapped potential in my opinion. For Michigan to reach the Final 4 again its going to take a fortunate occurence like Caris returning for his Senior Year. I think its a good possibility but will obviously be heavily dependent upon his B1G season performance.
Thoughts and Ideas? I'm working the desk at the Police Station here in Sarasota until midnight and have nothing better to talk about than Michigan Hoops! Merry Christmas everyone and Go Blue!!
December 24th, 2014 at 10:49 PM ^
Sorry I couldn't resist
December 24th, 2014 at 10:52 PM ^
December 24th, 2014 at 10:57 PM ^
College hoops is the most lop-sided of any of the major sports. It's tough to compete year after year unless youre a blue-blood. Michigan's player-development (early NBA entry) and inability to stack 5stars is really making it hard to keep up.
December 24th, 2014 at 11:08 PM ^
December 24th, 2014 at 11:37 PM ^
December 24th, 2014 at 11:47 PM ^
I'll be watching every Kentucky game in the tournament, hoping to catch one of the all-time upsets
December 25th, 2014 at 2:03 PM ^
I agree 100% with you, but I remember the 80's and 90's when teams had seniors who got better. Kids stayed and the game was so much better ( IMO).
Kentucky and Calipari ruin it for me. He is a crook (not my opinion) and there is no way most of those kids even go to classes after first semester. I wouldn't.
Even isiah needed two years under Knight to learn to play within a team (or at least begin to play within a team concept).
Both games would be better served with 21 as minimum age or football rule of 3 years if you start. NBA is brutal now and college is still great with parity, but it would be nice to actually watch superstar players get better over time.
Although as I wrote this, I did have to reconsider a little. Think about programs that get 3 and 4 stars who stay 4 years going against 5 stars who are one and done. The experienced team has a better chance because they can play the game better and know each other.
Guess I am confused, but I hate Kentucky/Calipari.
December 24th, 2014 at 11:00 PM ^
The Big Ten really only has 1 great team. The rest are good to ok. Michigan no doubt is one of the more talented teams in the conference and they have an excellent coach. They'll get better. I think they'll go 12-6 in conference play and get an 8 or 9 seed in the NCAA tourney.
December 24th, 2014 at 11:03 PM ^
First of all Stringer Bell is an awesome MGoBlog name. Secondly, i disagree with 12 wins. I haven't seen the consistency to pull that off and every road game will be a pick-em. I would love to see it though!
December 24th, 2014 at 11:12 PM ^
You're right, they're definitely inconsistent. But I saw the same thing last year. No doubt that team was much better than this team, but we saw that team start off sluggish as well. I know this team will get a lot better under Beilein's tutelage and should emerge as one of the top teams in the conference when all is said and done. Just my opinion.
December 24th, 2014 at 10:58 PM ^
but then Kentucky will just have platoons every year with 10 5 stars if it's 2 and done. We either need to recruit as well as them or have Calipari busted for recruiting violations.
December 24th, 2014 at 11:00 PM ^
and we get in, but the B10 seems down this year so we might need 10 wins.
December 24th, 2014 at 11:12 PM ^
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December 24th, 2014 at 11:14 PM ^
We saw the same thing last year. Lost to Charlotte, struggled against an average Florida State team, got dominated at Duke for the most part. No doubt this team has a ways to go, but they will get much better. That you can be sure of.
December 24th, 2014 at 11:29 PM ^
December 24th, 2014 at 11:32 PM ^
Last year's team was better, a lot better. That's why they won the conference, got a 2 seed and went to the Elite 8. This year's team won't come close to those accomplishments. But I use last year's team as reason to think that this team should get a lot better and should do pretty well in what I think is a down Big Ten.
December 24th, 2014 at 11:39 PM ^
Losses: @ Penn State @ Maryland @ MSU @ Indiana @ Illinois
I also think we lose to Wisconsin and Nebraska at home. Not sure why Nebraska....but they look relatively scary. I could also see us dropping a home game to either Iowa or Ohio State too.
December 24th, 2014 at 11:49 PM ^
Don't we play 18 conference games? Or did that change due to adding Rutgers and Maryland? Either way, you could definitely be right.
December 24th, 2014 at 11:56 PM ^
Yep 18...I'd guess he mean 9-9 or 8-10. My guess I think is 8-10 right now.
December 25th, 2014 at 1:32 PM ^
I agree, but think they have a chance at .500 in conference. Until this team can generate offense against decent teams, they are in trouble.
Love the optimism, Coach Beilein is one of top coaches in US, maybe #1 as far as x's and o's. But this team is sorely lacking in athleticism.
My two cents, but 8 - 10 in conference. NIT bound, can't overcome losses to NJIT and EMU.
Sadly, not much help coming next year. Even if D. Robinson is a steal. Levert is gone. Athleticism is actually going to go down next year unless they can get J. Brown.
Sorry to be pessimistic, but they don't have the horses right now. 2016 looks great if they can get battle and Thornton, or either one. Doyle looks to be solid Big Ten player with experience and strenth training.
December 24th, 2014 at 11:15 PM ^
December 24th, 2014 at 11:19 PM ^
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December 24th, 2014 at 11:19 PM ^
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December 24th, 2014 at 11:23 PM ^
However, he will be in th discussion just based off of numbers alone. He will likely average 16-17 ppg and stuff the rest of the stat sheet. I really hope he stays man....
December 24th, 2014 at 11:35 PM ^
December 25th, 2014 at 11:25 AM ^
December 25th, 2014 at 12:32 PM ^
December 27th, 2014 at 8:40 AM ^
December 24th, 2014 at 11:35 PM ^
I think the squad will improve as the season goes on, but at this point, it will be a fight just to make the tournament. Certainly doable, and I'm confident we pull some upsets along the way, but this is definitely going to be a down year. Goes to show how much we need high end recruits/playmakers like McGary, Stauskas and GRIII. I trust Beilein's ability to develop talent, but you can only take so many flyers on 3* kids. At some point, you're going to face a team that my only has good coaching, but just superior talent. I.e Kentucky.
I'll give Beilein a flyer on this year though. He's earned it after the production he's given the past 3 years. I
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December 24th, 2014 at 11:44 PM ^
December 24th, 2014 at 11:49 PM ^
Yikes this non-conference go-through was bad. I think this team has the potential to peak high. When, how, and if will be the biggest questions to solve. I do believe this team will peak, but it will be late in the conference schedule.... maybe even too late for a tourney shot. I've got us as a low 10-12 team right now (maybe having to play a play-in game to get in), but I do think we peak high at some point this season. Doyle and Donnal are starting to come around, but I highly doubt they will be contributing much in the conference schedule.
I believe in JB, but this really doesn't look like a good end to the season... Till then HARBAUGH
December 24th, 2014 at 11:53 PM ^
But you never know when it will "click" for these young guys. as for the returning players, irvin has really been a disappointment as far as his consistancy goes. and caris is not the type of killer that stauskas was. caris' draft stock has got to be plummeting right now. he has shown nothing that make me think he is a sure fire nba first round guy.
as for the rest of the season.... i think 18 wins is the most likely outcome. however i could see us ending with 14 as a low and 20 tops. just think, that 20 could have been 23 and a tourney lock if they take care of smu, njit, and eastern.
December 24th, 2014 at 11:57 PM ^
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December 25th, 2014 at 12:28 AM ^
12-6 in conference play. That puts us at 19-11 going into B1G tourny, where I see us winning two games. This team will turn a corner next month, just watch. It'll be nice when all the pessimists rally around this team.
December 25th, 2014 at 2:46 PM ^
December 25th, 2014 at 12:29 AM ^
In Beilein We Trust!
December 25th, 2014 at 2:14 AM ^
December 25th, 2014 at 4:01 AM ^
Jaylen Brown would be nice as far as landing high end recruits go. For the season, the only games I see as definite losses are @OSU, Wisconsin, @MSU, @ Indiana (we never win there) and @Maryland. I think anywhere from 8-10 to 13-5 is possible. I'll say 11-7.
December 25th, 2014 at 7:08 AM ^
December 25th, 2014 at 11:40 AM ^
I think Walton is going to get healthier in the next couple weeks and come on and be a rising star through Big Ten season. He has been hampered, resulting in an inability to create or finish at the rim (and subsequently it has affected his confidence and shooting). Walton appears to be the team's emotional leader and being injured can get the whole team down.
Doyle/Donnal are going to be inconsistent throughout the year, but I expect we see less and less Max Befieldt and more and more of the freshman, which is a good thing as Max simply is not athletic enough to play big minutes on a good team.
Kam Chatman is going to get better with confidence. Late in the Arizona game, when it was Kam, Donnal and walk-ons, Kam attacked and scored at will. Part of that is the level of defense he was facing, but much of it was mindset. He was the alpha dog in that situation, and showed his talent much more than he does when pressing with the starters in the game.
I wouldn't write this team off, they will improve and be a lot more fun to watch by the end of the year.
December 25th, 2014 at 1:04 PM ^
I think we finish third in the Big 10 at 12-6. Team will really hit a stride come February. This season more than ever these past three years or so we will see John Beileins offense really become the focal point. I know we shattered efficiency records last year, but I think this season will show how effective his system can be without a go to scorer night to night. We do not have that guy just yet who can take over, but I think by tourney time Walton will be picking up the torch left by Burke and Stauskas.
And Harbaugh will just generate a buzz of energy throughout the athletic program. 2015 will be a great year all around. Go Blue!
December 25th, 2014 at 3:56 PM ^