Lunardi's Latest Projections (3/12 @ 630 ET)

Submitted by bklein09 on
Where does Bracketology stand after the afternoon games? Did Penn State and Richmond play their way in? How did losses affect Alabama, Clemson and Michigan State? And what about Harvard? After an excruciating loss at the buzzer to Princeton, do the Crimson have any chance to end their 65-year tournament drought as an at-large? 

Check back with ESPN.com later for Lunardi's latest bracket. For now, here's a preview: 

TOP SEEDS 

East: Ohio State 
Southwest: Kansas 
Southeast: Notre Dame 
West: Pittsburgh 
*Next In Line: Duke 

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN 

Big East (11) 
Big Ten (7) 
Big 12 (6) 
ACC (5) 
SEC (4) 
Pac-10 (4) 
Atlantic 10 (3) 
Mountain West (3) 
Colonial (2) 
West Coast (2) 

LAST BYES (avoid First Four games in Dayton) 

Michigan State 
Illinois 
Clemson 
Saint Mary's 

LAST FOUR IN 

Colorado 
Penn State 
Virginia Tech 
USC 

FIRST FOUR OUT 

Boston College 
Alabama 
Georgia 
UAB 

NEXT OUT 

Harvard 
Missouri State

bklein09

March 12th, 2011 at 6:52 PM ^

I think a lot of the fear in the past week or so, especially in my case, has been more a product of not expecting things to go well for us.

Over the past 5 or so years it seems like a lot of things have gone wrong for us. Even if it seems that they shouldn't.

I'm afraid of bad luck.

But logic tells me its all good.

Hoping for a 10 seed!

Winged_Knight

March 12th, 2011 at 6:54 PM ^

I'm still having trouble figuring out why anyone would think that. How could a win from a single team that we were 8-10 spots ahead of all of a sudden have people ready to jump of a cliff? That's not too mention we beat this same team 2x!!

 

I guess people just want something to worry about...

AAB

March 12th, 2011 at 6:58 PM ^

being Michigan fans, we follow the Big 10 way closer than any other conference.  And the Big 10 is the only conference where all the bubble teams are really making a huge push, so that -- combined with the few notable upsets that are actually happening -- is giving people a false sense that bubble teams are going nuts.  People just aren't noticing Clemson and Va Tech and Bama getting killed, let alone teams like Georgia collapsing.  

Muttley

March 12th, 2011 at 7:38 PM ^

Still alive and able to fight upward in their team color. LAST BYES (avoid First Four games in Dayton) Michigan State Illinois Clemson Saint Mary's LAST FOUR IN Colorado Penn State Virginia Tech USC FIRST FOUR OUT Boston College Alabama Georgia UAB NEXT OUT Harvard Missouri State And the only leagues with potential bid-thieves still alive are the A10 (Dayton v Richmond tomorrow) and the WAC (Boise State v Utah State later tonight) That's it. There are only two potential teams alive (the potential bid-stealers) to take at-large spots from Lunardi's list. Lunardi may not be perfect, I don't think his margin of error is +/- 10 spots, which is what it would take for us to fall out of at-large.

MH20

March 12th, 2011 at 10:27 PM ^

The Matrix has us up to a 10 seed now.  Previously, we were an #11, but now are the last #10.  According to the Matrix, that would pit us against Georgetown, the first #6.  I know that the Matrix isn't an actual field and doesn't use the committee's S-curve, but I think we'd matchup well against the Hoyas.

vegasjeff

March 12th, 2011 at 7:04 PM ^

The selection committee doesn't like to wait until after the last games, and Penn State beating Wiscy for a second time and MSU for a second time is enough to warrant the Nittany Lions' inclusion.

Michigan is in and so are the Illini and Spartans (barely).

MH20

March 12th, 2011 at 7:26 PM ^

The committee really can't wait for the conclusion of the BTT final in order to get their picks in time for the 6pm selection show.  Because the BTT final begins at 3:30, there is just not enough time for them to factor in all the ramifications after the fact.  So, sometimes the seeding of B1G teams in the final seem a little off -- I seem to remember one year that Wisconsin ended up with a 5 or 6 seed when it seemed pretty obvious they were at least 4-seed material.

Oh, and why does the B1G choose to have their championship game so late in the game?  One word: money.

the Bray

March 12th, 2011 at 8:06 PM ^

I don't think that's exactly true.  What they've said they have done in the past is basically have two sets of brackets, one for if team a wins, one for a team b win.  Once the Big Ten Final is over, they go with the bracket for that winner.  CBS gets the brackets about 15-20 minutes before the Selection Show airs - there's enough time to grab the correct bracket and hand it over.

MH20

March 12th, 2011 at 10:35 PM ^

Well, it sounds like you know what you're talking about, so I'll defer to you and say that I'm wrong.

I did look real quick, though, and found the scenario I was talking about.  In 2004, Wisconsin won the BTT and ended up 24-6 overall.  That record, from a team that won a major conference tournament should elicit better than a 6 seed, don't you think?

2004 BTT results

2004 NCAA seeds

the Bray

March 13th, 2011 at 12:50 AM ^

I agree, that seems like an awfully low seed for Wisconsin in that instance - but I don't exactly remember their RPI and all that good stuff from that season. Sometimes, weird stuff happens. I remember thinking Michigan should have been higher than a 6 seed in 1992, too.

Muttley

March 12th, 2011 at 10:40 PM ^

LAST BYES (avoid First Four games in Dayton)

Michigan
Michigan State
Colorado
Penn State

LAST FOUR IN

Saint Mary's
Clemson
Virginia Tech
USC

FIRST FOUR OUT

Alabama
Georgia
Boston College
UAB

NEXT OUT

Harvard
Missouri State
VCU

 

And bid-thief Boise State down 24-14 to Utah State w/ 8 min to go in 1st half.

GoPackGo

March 12th, 2011 at 8:16 PM ^

Michigan as the 6 seed in D.C. please...like to keep my attendance streak at M NCAA games alive, and this might be the only locale to do that at....