Looking at OSU and PSU schedules in 2020
At first glance it looks kind of depressing.
-Neither of them play UW or Minn.
-Both get Iowa at home.
-OSU has to go to MSU, but Sparty is going to be utter garbage next year.
-PSU goes to Neb. Maybe Frost hits stride next year, but who knows.
-They play each other at PSU.
-We’re home to PSU and at OSU.
So, aside from each other and us, OSU has zero B10 games that don’t look like pretty easy wins, and PSU should be favored in all their road games as well.
Which means that, barring some huge upset, we go to Columbus facing an OSU squad with no more than 1 conference loss. So even if we are 8-0, it’s still likely we have to win there to go to Indy.
Assuming we lose to OSU (I’m sorry, but they’re at home and have a heisman caliber QB coming back. I’m not going to delude myself about our chances) it looks like our best chance is to run the table, hope that PSU beats OSU at Happy Valley and we get in on a tie breaker which, sad to say, does not include “longest without a division title”
So we all need to be big PSU fans next year because, if they lose another B10 game besides to us, that knocks them out of any 1 loss team tie breaking scenario and probably makes it so we’ll have to go a perfect 9-0 in B10 play to get to Indy, which is going to be pretty damn hard to do.
January 14th, 2020 at 12:35 PM ^
Let's see how we fare against:
- Wisconsin
- Penn State
- at MSU
- at Minnesota
Before we become PSU fans. We may not need to cheer for them depending on how the beginning of the season goes.
I don't see MSU doing anything next year I just included them since that's a pretty rough stretch from Sept 26th-Oct 17th
January 14th, 2020 at 12:40 PM ^
I’m not blowing that stretch off by any means.
I’m just saying, due to the unbalanced conference schedules, how tough it’s going to be to win the division title even if we get through that stretch unscathed. Which is no sure thing.
And we owe it all to that asshole Jim Delaney.
January 14th, 2020 at 12:49 PM ^
I don't know if we can blame the schedule. At some point Michigan is going to have to win away from home and beat the Buckeyes. Our road record isn't as simple as poor scheduling by the Big Ten.
Harbaugh is paid over 7 million dollars a year. He's paid to win regardless of the schedule. He needs to get it figured out.
I do agree Delaney is awful!
January 14th, 2020 at 1:03 PM ^
Yeah, but the fact of the matter is when you add 2 absolutely awful football programs to a 12 team conference, and put them same division even, it’s sometimes going to throw the competitive balance way out of whack.
Maybe it favors us another time, but the fact that, next year our 2 top division rivals both get to duck out on 2 of the top 5 teams in the conference, and we get hit by them both, is pretty crappy.
And, I can’t stress this enough, this was all done in the name of adding RUTGERS and MARYLAND to the conference
January 14th, 2020 at 1:14 PM ^
But they added them to our division. I guess I'm just more of the thinking if you are going to win anything, you'll have to beat some good teams along the way. Minny just happens to be good again.
January 14th, 2020 at 7:15 PM ^
Delaney took big money to screw michigan. Hard to believe but here it is - truer than Snowden's memoir :(
January 14th, 2020 at 12:38 PM ^
Also, fuck Jim Delaney.
This kind of unbalanced schedule crap, where neither OSU nor PSU have to face what are most likely the top two teams in the west next season, while we have to face them BOTH, is a direct result of him just having to add Rutgers and Maryland to the conference because something, something, tv market share, something.
January 14th, 2020 at 12:54 PM ^
It's not Jim Delaney's fault that Minnesota hired a good coach and that Nebraska shit the bed in the post Pelini era....
January 14th, 2020 at 1:07 PM ^
But why does Michigan have to play Wisconsin every year? That's on the league office.
January 14th, 2020 at 1:23 PM ^
And why do conference games have to be scheduled years in advance?
At they end of each season they should see who finished 1-3 in each division and have them play each other the next year, so there’s at least something close to consistency in scheduling of the 3 non division games. The NFL does something like that with their strength of scheduling between seasons and it works pretty well.
It wouldn’t be perfect and as ideal as a totally equal schedule, but it’d be a lot better than the seemingly at random crap fest we have currently.
But, for reasons I can’t comprehend, the conferences have to make out their schedules our years in advance. You know who the teams in your conference are, just see how they finish and say “Based on this year’s finish you’re going to play at X on thus and such a date next year.”
Groups like the NFL and soccer leagues around the world can do it, why can’t the B10 FFS?
January 14th, 2020 at 1:31 PM ^
Wisconsin is rotating off our schedule after 2021. Then we will get Nebraska for 2022-2025, and OSU will get Wisconsin for those years. So conference is trying to keep it balanced.
Why did we get Wisconsin as our long term crossover first? I think there are a couple obvious reasons.
1. Previous divisional alignment. In the Legends division we were with Iowa, Nebraska, Minnesota, and Northwestern. Thus in the new West division that left Wisconsin, Purdue, and Illinois as teams we didn't have recent annual games with. By contrast PSU and OSU were in a division with Wisconsin until that point.
2. Competitive balance. Of the Wisconsin, Purdue, and Illinois teams matching Michigan with Wisconsin was the most competitively balanced. PSU got Iowa, and OSU got Nebraska. Which makes sense because Nebraska was still performing well in the Pelini era.
3. We hadn't played Wisconsin since 2010. Where as we had played Purdue and Illinois as leaders/legends crossover games in '11 and '12. So we had a more recent history with Purdue and Illinois.
So it isn't some grand anti-Michigan conspiracy. Is it unlucky that Nebraska tanked post Pelini and Wisconsin is at a program high point? Sure. 5 or 6 years ago the blog was lamenting over the fact that we weren't playing Wisconsin anymore. Is 6 consecutive years too much? Probably, but we won't have to face them as a regular crossover for like 20 years now. Just the periodic 2 games every 7 years or whatever the cadence is. That is until the conference either expands or goes back to 8 conference games.
January 14th, 2020 at 2:42 PM ^
So playing msu osu on the road in the same year where home games include wis n psu then playing psu wis on road in same year playing osu msu at home. Yep delany didn't plan this.
January 14th, 2020 at 7:54 PM ^
PSU gets UM and OSU at home in the same year and away in the same year.
Dont see them bitching...
And Northwestern had to play in ann arbor two consecutive years and I dont see them bitching...
Maybe instead of bitching about the big ten you should bitch about Harbaugh's teams not showing up for big games, especially on the road...
January 14th, 2020 at 8:07 PM ^
Didn't the Leaders and Legends divisions only last 1 year though?
January 14th, 2020 at 11:47 PM ^
3 years.
2011 through 2013.
January 14th, 2020 at 12:41 PM ^
Forget PSU & OSU for a minute. Let's take an honest look at ours and do a "too early" predictions. At best I have us 9-2 heading into Columbus with worst case 7-4. BTW scheduling a road game, at Washington, to open the season is the 2nd dumbest thing we've done scheduling-wise since Harbaugh came back (putting ND back on the slate was #1 IMO).
at Washington - Loss.
BALL STATE - win
ARKANSAS STATE -win
WISCONSIN*- win (but not a sure thing)
PENN STATE* - win (but not a sure thing)
at Michigan State* - win ( but not a sure thing)
at Minnesota* - loss
PURDUE* - win
Bye Week
MARYLAND* - win
at Rutgers* - win
INDIANA* - win
at Ohio State* - Do we even to ask?
So 9-3 heading to a bowl game. Rinse, repeat.
January 14th, 2020 at 12:46 PM ^
So 9-3 heading to a bowl game. Spend the off-season making excuses and re-cranking the hype machine. Rinse, repeat.
FIFY
January 14th, 2020 at 12:52 PM ^
This is MICHIGAN FOOTBALL.
January 14th, 2020 at 12:55 PM ^
That game was announced while Hoke was still the coach and Brandon was still the AD, so pre-Harbaugh.
https://mgoblue.com/news/2014/8/20/U_M_Announces_2020_21_Home_and_Home_with_Washington.aspx
January 14th, 2020 at 1:00 PM ^
Well shit then that decision doesnt even make the top 10 dumbest things Brandon did.
Hey I've got a question. For all the shit Brandon took when he suggested the OSU game might get moved from the last game to earlier in the year (remember Legends & Leaders), how do you think that idea would be received now? My guess is we wouldn't be nearly as opposed to making that game a little less "special" today as we were 6 or 7 years ago.
January 14th, 2020 at 1:11 PM ^
Great point! I wouldn't be as opposed to this as I was previously given our on-going ineptitude in The Game.
Quite frankly, I am sick of telling my large family on Thanksgiving "this is the year" to have me be reminded 1 month later on Christmas "what happened to your team?"
January 14th, 2020 at 1:44 PM ^
Yup on Thanksgiving after the Lions start the tire fire on the holiday season.
January 14th, 2020 at 1:26 PM ^
I don't care what they did this year, if Harbaugh can't beat Minnesota on the road in his sixth season, then he needs to be fucking fired.
January 14th, 2020 at 4:40 PM ^
Have you seen Blue play on the road vs. any team with a pulse? Not to mention, Minne will treat the game like their super bowl.
Minne 31
Blue 17
Book it
January 14th, 2020 at 1:47 PM ^
Washington-Loss
AS-Win
BS-Win
Wisky-Loss
PSU-Loss
MSU-Win
Minny-Loss
Purdue-Win
Mary-Win
Rut-Win
Indiana-Win
OSU-Blowout loss
7-5 Possible 8 wins if bowl against non SEC team.
January 14th, 2020 at 2:00 PM ^
Washington's going to be debuting a new coach and QB on September 5th, Michigan "should" win that game.
January 14th, 2020 at 2:07 PM ^
Exactly. I don't know why people consider a 7-6 team with a new QB and coach as an automatic loss.
January 14th, 2020 at 2:12 PM ^
Go look up the last time we won a non-con, true road game west of the Mississippi and tell me what you find. I’ll give you a hint, the most recent one wasn’t this century or against a P5 team.
January 14th, 2020 at 3:53 PM ^
When's the last time we went out there and won a game by more than one score (against a P5 team)? If we win, it won't be easy.
January 14th, 2020 at 4:01 PM ^
Adding in the “more than one score” caveat, I believe the answer to be 1974, @ Stanford which was a final of 27-16. Someone though can crack open their SuperGuide and fact check me if you want.
January 14th, 2020 at 4:15 PM ^
Michigan-Washington games have a tendency to be very very weird...we should win that game but I would noot be surprised if we lost in Seattle
January 15th, 2020 at 7:56 AM ^
1. Opening game not played in AA
2. West coast
3. New QB for Michigan
This is why we lose
January 14th, 2020 at 4:36 PM ^
Is it also fair to put "(but not a sure thing)" next to your predicted Ls? I think UM's roster is better than both and would favor UM at a neutral site. "9-2 at best" is pessimistic even if 9-2 is realistic.
January 14th, 2020 at 12:43 PM ^
I don't think I could ever be a PSU fan (certainly not a big PSU fan) under any circumstances.
January 14th, 2020 at 12:48 PM ^
Penn State has beaten OSU once under Franklin, in a game they should've lost. I think too much credit is given to them being capable of doing so again.
January 14th, 2020 at 12:55 PM ^
I don't disagree on 2016, OSU was much better, but PSU should have won both the 2017 and 2018 (especially 2018) games, and didn't, so it evens out.
January 14th, 2020 at 12:51 PM ^
“So, aside from each other and us, OSU has zero B10 games that don’t look like pretty easy wins”
....LOL that you threw “us” in there as not an easy win. If I am Ohio State, I circle Michigan on the calendar, but when predicting a W...probably more certain about that W than any other game. We are their Indiana.
January 14th, 2020 at 12:51 PM ^
We will always have to win against OSU to go to Indy.
The chances of OSU having 2 conference losses while we have 0 heading into the final week is infinitesimal.
January 14th, 2020 at 1:11 PM ^
Just stop FFS.......I’m sick of this acting like OSU is the fucking Patriots or something.
Yeah they’re the premier program in the conference and are going to be favored to win it most years. But this reverence and awe that they’re so far out in front that we’re going to be eating their dust for all eternity, is just pathetic.
If Wisconsin can go from what their program was pre Barry Alavarez and Bill Snyder could turn K-State from the worst team in the nation to a 10+ win squad for several seasons, there’s no reason on God’s green earth why the University if Michigan can’t approach something close to parity with OSU.
January 14th, 2020 at 1:20 PM ^
Um there kinda is though.
We have chosen (for good or bad - not the point of this response), we have CHOSEN to not compete for the best athletes for our football team with the elite football programs.
1. We dont allow on-line classes (everyone else does)
2. We dont employ bagman or if we do, not nearly to the extent of the OSUs, the Alabama's Georgia, LSU, etc.
3. We have an adversarial local media. You dont think that matters? See how many "wrong doings" are reported by local Baton Rouge, Columbus or Tuscaloosa news media.
4. We pride ourselves on our academics and that our players will be ready for "the game of life" post football. The other schools dont care and prepare them for one thing and one thing only - college football
And if you believe, as I do, that recruiting and talent on the field is >>>>>>>than coaching then until we decide to make some changes (and i'm not advocating we do) then we will continue to attract a different caliber of player than OSU. Which makes it damn hard to beat them
January 14th, 2020 at 1:41 PM ^
The “no online classes” policy is stupid. There are countless students, some of whom are taking honest to goodness difficult majors at top schools across the nation, who take some online classes. Not to mention all the companies and and other organizations that conduct their affairs online.
It’s 2020 FFS and saying “We don’t offer online courses” just to make some stupid point about your standards, is beyond asinine. UM might as well say “Oh we don’t let our athletes use calculators and ball point pens. As far as we’re concerned, it’s abacuses and quills and ink, just like the education gods intended, for us.”
January 14th, 2020 at 1:51 PM ^
100% absolutely correct. But...But...But... It's the Michigan difference...leather helmets included in 2020. UM is sooooooooo arrogant and Harbaugh pretending to be an academic coach is laughable. he has been whining since his Stanford days and even complained about Michigan.
January 14th, 2020 at 3:36 PM ^
And yet you can get your online MBA from the Ross School?
https://michiganross.umich.edu/graduate/online-mba
January 14th, 2020 at 1:52 PM ^
Parity requires beating them yes?
All I've pointed out is that the road to Indy goes through OSU. We will have to beat OSU to go to Indy because our chances of entering the final week of the year with a two game conference lead over them is very small.
Perhaps your ire is directed at OP for complaining that PSU and OSU don't have hard enough schedules...
January 14th, 2020 at 12:58 PM ^
LOL, we are not going to Indy unless we are going to watch two other teams play in the championship game.
8-4
January 14th, 2020 at 12:59 PM ^
There's a reason that every OSU game can be penciled in as a win - they're that good. They'd be favorites away at every school in both divisions of the B1G.
Michigan needs to go on the road and beat a team that's as good as, or better than, us. It's time. PSU was a great opportunity to beat a good, but not unbeatable, team last year and it didn't happen. Maybe it will at Minnesota?
January 16th, 2020 at 2:59 PM ^
I'm not sold on Minny yet. But yes, it all comes down to beating the top teams, and specifically OSU. It all comes down to one game and when we finally pick up a win against the evil empire our national image changes. Unfortunately, they could be even better next year than they were in 2019. They'll probably be stronger in all areas except the DBs and RBs although Teague could be their next breakout back based on what he did last year. We need a win in Columbus next year to stop our downward spiral in the worst way
January 14th, 2020 at 1:02 PM ^
NO MORE DIVISIONS!
January 14th, 2020 at 1:28 PM ^
I get a charge out of all these posts saying we'll at most have 1 loss heading into the OSU game? And invariably people say @ Minnesota is an automatic win. Minnesota will be very good next year, might even be better than they were this season when they beat Auburnb in their bowl, the same Auburn who beat Bama. People also chalking up Wisky as a win are crazy, they blew us out this season, that's a 50-50 game. PSU is also a 50-50 game. At Washington is another tough game. And then we have some other teams that are improving on our schedule.
We were 9-4, we lose our 5 year 5 star QB off the roster and replace him with an unknown, we also lose our interior O Line who were all top 50 recruits, and our 2 time All Big Ten first team LT. While losing 2 of our top 4 WRs one of who was a 5 star. Defense returns plenty, but we do lose enough to give me pause in saying the D will be better.
So we were 9-4, are we better on paper in 2020? I don't think so. And the schedule is just as hard. Not ready for official predictions because there are a lot of roster spots still in flux, but 8-4/9-3 seems right with 10-2 being the ceiling.
January 14th, 2020 at 2:00 PM ^
@Washington isn't easy, but I would take them over Oregon or Utah. They're replacing a great HC, breaking in a new offense, QB, and o-line. Their defense will be legit, but they've been on a downward trend since their CFP appearance. Needless to say, if Harbaugh can't beat this Washington team in his 6th year with all this talent (yes, I know we'll have a new QB and 3/4 new offensive linemen), then something is wrong. We have good to great coordinators (if you believe Don Brown is just limited by the talent lately), top ten-ish overall talent composite, and we hung tough with Bama despite mediocre QB play.
If we lose to Washington, Harbaugh needs to start packing his bags, and only a win vs Ohio would save him in my book. 6 years is plenty of time to beat a good but not great Pac-12 team on the road. And that fact that @Minnesota is considered a loss already is another bad sign.