Looking At the Next Three Games
An interesting thing happened on the way to Michigan's first B1G game: someone forgot to tell Michigan they weren't supposed to improve at this rate. Rationally, most of us looked at this team as a 7-8 win ball club; while that still could be the case, the ceiling seems conceptually much higher. No one who earnestly looks at this is saying Michigan is "back", but the question I have, is do they have to be "back" to do the unthinkable? The last decade has been a humbling experience for this program and its fanbase, and as such, I don't think anyone is looking past even Maryland, let alone Northwestern. However, it's not a stretch to say we have a better than average shot of going into the Michigan State game 5-1. If it plays out in that fashion, things of course, get interesting. If Michigan beats State, which seemed largely improbable even 2 months ago, what's the new ceiling? Because after that game, Michigan has again, a better than average shot of winning the remainder of its games leading up to "The Game." I'm certainly tempering by expectations, but looking at this rationally, I don't feel crazy for asking the what if questions.
September 28th, 2015 at 12:15 PM ^
I hope you don't post this 6 more times.
September 28th, 2015 at 12:19 PM ^
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September 28th, 2015 at 12:17 PM ^
Looking at the next 4 games will be the next thread.
September 28th, 2015 at 12:18 PM ^
For discussing football topics on a football discussion board; what the hell was I thinking?
September 28th, 2015 at 1:02 PM ^
i couldn't agree more Voldemort. Every thread on this board starts out with some smartass comment about how it shouldn't be a thread or with the all too clever IBD. Oh my GOD that's so hilarious...in before delete, hahahaha. Morons.
From now on let's just have this board and we'll just look at the screen. No more threads! Especially ones about football.
September 28th, 2015 at 1:23 PM ^
Anyone who posts that shoudl be auto-banned. /*ducks
September 28th, 2015 at 1:32 PM ^
It's part of the shtik of the blog. The first few comments are smartass, then hot takes, then reasonably intelligent/thoughtful comments (longer to type), the crazies post after midnight.
September 28th, 2015 at 2:21 PM ^
It's just that 90% of the smartass stuff is toothless and predictable, and sometimes goes on for pages. Most is just slightly above the level of NFL studio analysts doing their yuk-yuk/toss the football routine.
As for the next 3 games, I'm thinking that Harbaugh has them quite focused on Maryland (actually focused, not coachspeak) and as a fan, I realize I kind of enjoy taking it that way too. Growing up I used to look at Michigan's schedule in August and invariably predict every game as a probable win; most times they would end up with 3-4 losses to a Northwestern here, or a non-con road game (usu. ND or Pac 10) there. If I start thinking they might go 11-1, 12-1, 14-1(!!!!) then the season becomes a stressful exercise in not-screwing-up, rather than simply being happy that we have a real coach who is quickly making this program great again, W-L record aside. What September has taught us (as it does every year, though we don't learn) is that all of our projections about the Big Ten and Top Ten are very different now than they were in August, just as they will be, again, a month from now. If we have a hard time scoring against Northwestern and Minnesota, for instance, a couple fluke plays or turnovers could swing those games.
So, all I'll say is I'm confident that this weekend Michigan has a very good chance to win a conference road game, something we rarely saw in 2008-2014.
September 28th, 2015 at 12:25 PM ^
September 28th, 2015 at 12:28 PM ^
I don't sit and watch the board hawkishly for repeated commentary. Seriously, I worry about a lot of you. I have no idea where most of you find the time to do such things.
September 28th, 2015 at 1:34 PM ^
"find the time..."
Underemployed?
September 28th, 2015 at 1:39 PM ^
in the middle of a work week with I imagine lots more time to engage in banter with the folks responding to your thread. So what are you exactly saying here? Sounds like you are blowing off work just like the rest of us. Let's not have a pissing contest about this though.
September 28th, 2015 at 2:00 PM ^
I don't get the time to post much, hence the sporadic nature of my activity.
September 28th, 2015 at 4:03 PM ^
September 28th, 2015 at 12:23 PM ^
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September 28th, 2015 at 1:35 PM ^
will give us trouble. Especially if it's the edge that Peppers isn't holding down. Our LB's have really stuggled this year getting on theiri horse and containing the edge. Northwestern will give us fits in the first half and hopefully we'll adjust in the second half. Also State will be able to completely ignore the pathetic Purdue and Rutgers teams the next two weeks to prepare for us. Rudock may guys in his face all night and that game may get really ugly. Playing at Minnesota will also likely be an ugly game. Penn State may have found something by the time we play them and Happy Valley isn't an easy road game environment.
I'm betting we go 9-3 (beat one of our rivals) and draw top notch SEC team in the bowl game that will be favored against us.
We just don't have a stud yet at any of the skill positions on offense and I think you need at least one if you're going to go 10-2 or 12-1. I hope I'm wrong but you have to imagine that good coaches will scheme around our defense after seeing it for a few weeks and we have no idea who will show up on offense from week to week.
September 28th, 2015 at 2:47 PM ^
I actually had a worm of a thought this weekend that Purdue might scare the daylights out of MSU. Why?
1. Purdue's offense has improved, while MSU's defense (secondary in particular) is very mediocre right now, not to mention very injured.
2. Transitive: Purdue played even with BG, who is probably superior to CMU & WMU, each of whom hung tough with MSU.
3. Look-ahead to U-M -- particularly, maybe resting dinged up players because, eh, it's Purdue.
4. For some odd reason, MSU has struggled with Purdue under Dantonio. They haven't lost, but there have been many strangely close games.
5. Feelingsball: with Oregon getting vaporized by the team Michigan lost to by one score on the road, MSU can't help but wonder if they're as good as they thought they were, which might get them to play tight. I also have a hunch that the incremental improvement that Hazell has shown will result in at least one stunning win this year.
September 28th, 2015 at 3:23 PM ^
that I read posts like this, the more I realize that people do not realize what State has become during the eight year restroom break our program has taken. They start the season slow while they get their bearings, they play up and down to the level of their competition, and then the machine keeps rolling when Big Ten season starts. It is not a one year thing, it is going on its sixth year and I have seen no reason why this year is any different. A close(but not that close) win v. Oregon is being used against State now because Utah beat Oregon soundly? State is going to obliterate Purdue.
I am being forced into "State fan" mode right now to try to manage expectations. Guys, State is very good, I have seen no evidence of any "fall off" from previous years and have been impressed with their play. And why would we want State not to be good. Isn't it best case scenario that they are ranked and very highly regarded when we play them?
September 28th, 2015 at 4:03 PM ^
I've watched a few of their games while splitting with another and I don't think they've played a complete game yet. In the Western game they were up 27-10 at the half and played flat the second half before Oregon. Their defense held Oregons offense to 21 points which isn't the makings of a terrible defense. Air Force I didn't see but anytime Central plays MSU it's usually their best game of the year. Central more than held their own with Oklahoma State (lost by 11) and should have beat a Syracuse team (lost by 3) that lost by 10 points to LSU.
September 28th, 2015 at 7:52 PM ^
had nothing to do with being a Michigan fan or even thinking/hoping that State isn't any good. I'm a college football fan endlessly intrigued by matchups, and this one intrigues me more than, say, MSU/Rutgers. Could MSU obliterate Purdue? Sure. But you are projecting here; I'm not playing "Michigan fan" so you don't need to play "State fan" -- and I offered no opinion over how highly I would like them to be ranked.
Since you brought it up though, State's "slow starts" in previous years were mostly on offense, while an airtight defense carried them. Last year they gave up 40+ to three very good offensive teams (not to mention 31 to one, ahem, terrible one) and now with Narduzzi gone, injuries, and questions at corner, there are definite chinks in the armor as of now. I watched the whole Oregon game and thought MSU, yes, was the better team. Also, yes, they could have easily lost that game, so I'm not sure what you mean by 'not that close.' We won't know for sure until later in the season, but right now both Michigan and Michigan St. strike me as being in the Top 10-15 range.
October 3rd, 2015 at 3:12 PM ^
September 28th, 2015 at 3:46 PM ^
, the LBs have been the least impressive. Saw several occasions where Morgan and Bolden had problems getting off blocks on Saturday, but thanks to good run support by our safeties, BYU still couldn't break off any big runs.
September 28th, 2015 at 12:31 PM ^
September 28th, 2015 at 12:59 PM ^
yes, because what YOU concentrate on affects the football team in such a big way.
September 28th, 2015 at 12:36 PM ^
There are a lot of "ifs" in there and it doesn't make me feel comfortable. We lost to Maryland last year and Northwestern is ranked so I'm not ready to start talking about MSU. Also, I feel it would be smart to temper the expectations considering after the UNLV game just last week many of us were thinking the team regressed and Rudock was not the answer.
September 28th, 2015 at 12:41 PM ^
If Michgan wins - then they will have more wins. I am pretty sure of the math, but could someone double check?
September 28th, 2015 at 12:44 PM ^
One game at time. Focus on Maryland.
September 28th, 2015 at 12:58 PM ^
studying tape right now and am going to email Harbaugh with my findings.
September 28th, 2015 at 2:55 PM ^
I'm sure he will give them the consideration they are due
September 28th, 2015 at 12:59 PM ^
September 28th, 2015 at 1:20 PM ^
Doesn't matter. Just like the players and the coaches, we have to focus only on the next game, not the last game, the team's improvement, rankings, etc. So shut the hell up and stop having fun. This isn't supposed to be fun, it's WAR, BABY!!!
September 28th, 2015 at 12:44 PM ^
Michigan still has a long way to go. If you rewatch the game (I have - 3 times), you'll see that only a handful of their runs were what I would call dominant by the OLine (if that). A lot of sub-adequate blocking going on leading to a ton of getting stuffed after 0-3 yards. The team will go as far as the Offense will take them because the upper level teams will score some points on us.
Don't get me wrong, I think that we're going to be better than I thought this year. But, let's not get ahead of ourselves.
September 28th, 2015 at 12:59 PM ^
to late to not get ahead of ourselves.
September 28th, 2015 at 1:02 PM ^
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September 28th, 2015 at 1:06 PM ^
September 28th, 2015 at 1:11 PM ^
about to scroll through the Top Ten to see whose ass we are kicking in the national semi-final.
September 28th, 2015 at 1:01 PM ^
September 28th, 2015 at 1:03 PM ^
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September 28th, 2015 at 1:07 PM ^
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September 28th, 2015 at 1:21 PM ^
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September 28th, 2015 at 1:20 PM ^
I'm not sure what you mean by better than average shot, but if you mean 50%, we don't have a 50% or greater shot of winning all of our remaining games up until OSU. Yes, in each of those games we have an above 50% shot, but collectively, we have about a 13 percent shot of winning all of them. With current FPI win probabilities, which are still too early to be reliable, we only have a 35% shot of winning games Minnesota through Penn State, if we make it through MSU undefeated.
Of course, that would likely improve our FPI and win probabilities significantly, but just saying, being a favorite in each game isn't the same as being favored to win all games.
September 28th, 2015 at 1:27 PM ^
Using Massey Ratings, we can come up with a decent estimate of how many wins we can expect based on the most recent data in the alogrithm. Mind you, it does weight previous season data, so take these for what you will, but there are 4 games of this season in this as well.
Right now, it would come out to the following:
3 wins - 15.54%
2 wins - 44.68%*
1 win - 22.88%
0 wins - 6.76%
* - this includes the most likely single scenario right now (28.86% by itself), which would be coming into the game against MSU 5-1 and exiting it 5-2
September 28th, 2015 at 1:30 PM ^
Lets see ... if the OL continues to improve and Rudock can continue to play like he did yesterday, we have a good chance in any game we play. If there is any regression in those departments, we will lose to MSU and OSU.
Huge variance in potential outcomes with this team.
September 28th, 2015 at 1:31 PM ^
It's ok (for fans) to look past Maryland, they're terrible. Northwestern looked ok against Ball State, just OK not great. However their defense has been stout all year, the offense not so much. NW will be the next test before Sparty.
September 28th, 2015 at 1:41 PM ^
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September 28th, 2015 at 2:26 PM ^
The most important game is the NEXT one. Feels great to be on the right track, but take nothing for granted. The aftershock is like a great exhale of relief for the M community after a long period of suffering, and you can understand it. I would bet that JH and the players are already over it, doing their best to meet the challenge of Maryland on the road at night.
Having said that, MD is a must win, NW looks like a trap that is going to be very tricky, and MSU looks like we MAY have a chance to be in the game. We'll see, but I am focused on MD (not that it makes a bit of difference).
September 28th, 2015 at 2:27 PM ^