Looking at M Football Going Forward - An Outsiders Perspective.

I'm the Owner/Moderator of a Michigan Football Forum. We have several contributors from other BIG programs. This is from one of them. In it he discusses the problems Jim Harbaugh faces going into 2020 and beyond. The guy is good analytically when it comes to CFB and he knows recruiting cold. Thought his post was worthy of mgoboard comments ........ 

I'll say this about M going forward. I like the coaching staff, mostly. I think Gattis is going to be pretty good. They do some pretty good things to create looks. He knew OSU was going to come out and sit back in zone and take away the run, and they torched it for a half. When OSU changed up and started to go more man with more pressure, he adjusted somewhat to the running game, but he was really constrained by score at that point. I think Don Brown did a nice job schematically this year to deal with glaring deficiencies at certain positions.

NB: I agree with his take on Don Brown. Lots of shit-posts within the CFB blogosphere about his work that are way off. He did some nice work in 2019 with a front 7 that lacked depth and talent at DT and by doing that covered up a depth issue on the back-end. Metellus and Hawkins are good, not elite Ss and you saw why v. osu's receivers....another stark example of osu talent >>> M's.

Recruiting-wise, though, they have to own the problems at DT. They have to own the QB situation (which turned out fine). They're going to have to own the OL situation next year (which, I think is turning into a vintage Warriner "low star/modestly higher production" unit -- good for beating Indiana, not so good for beating OSU).

Player development/recruiting-wise, I think they need to better with their WRs. And I think it's worth noting that HARBAUGH!!! signed a monster class in 2017. It had a fair amount of high end talent and a ton of overall depth. 30 recruits. I think 6 started (with McCaffrey eventually starting in 2020). The 2018 class was light in numbers and talent and the 2019 class is better in numbers but still light on elite talent. The game on the field on Saturday was, in a lot ways, a matchup of OSU's #2 class in 2017 and M's #5 class. And, I guess throw in two transfer QBs.

NB: There is a subsequent post comparing position by position the 2017 recruiting class by 247 ranking. If you didn't think there's a talent gap that was a significant player in the osu/M game last Saturday that really came down to a battle between 2017 classes, trust me there was ..... and I know a lot you who follow recruiting closely know this. This wasn't the whole story but it was part of it. Waaaaay too many errors made and stupid stuff like fucking up the opening EP with frippery, untying shoelaces (Fields) and removing cleats (Dobbins) that if those don't happen this isn't the blow-out that it was.

I'm not going to shit on any specific players, but the only ones on defense that I'd take for OSU are Hutchinson (in the DL rotation for sure), McGrone (probably 2-deep for now, but he'll be good) and Hill (I guess, Thomas, but he's not starting). On offense, I think Bredesen starts and I'd take Runyan for depth at OT. I would also take Nico Collins (he's better than Austin Mack for sure).

Next year is going to be interesting. Let's set aside the transfer portal. With no transfers M loses at least 3 OL and potentially 4 (I don't know what Ruiz will do -- I assume an interior OL will come back). The guys that replace him are not impressive to these eyes. IMO, they'll suffer a big drop-off. They also could lose all of their WRs. And as much as Ronnie Bell looked good, how's he gonna look when he's the only guy you have to worry about? I guess Giles Jackson could develop into a nice multi-purpose weapon. And, I do like their RBs and I do think McCaffrey will be as good or better than Shea.

On defense, you lose some key players, especially in your secondary. If Thomas goes early then that unit is decimated and not likely to recover by 2020. Losing most of their LB corps also hurts (I like McGrone) and it doesn't seem like the cavalry is on its way for DT.

NB: there's a very good board post here, "Yes it sucks, but ......" that fills in some of the blanks on the OL brought up above. I think M will be fine but I agree with the poster on a ceiling of it's productivity with Warriner coaching the OL (and that's not an intended ding on him. He's been a good Harbaugh hire for what ailed M in the past).

My December 2019 take for 2020 M, Team Number 4,592,203 or whatever it is, it's going to be noticeably less talented than the 2019 version. I think that's a very bad look for HARBAUGH!!! in Year 6. I think after 6 years we will still say that the 2016 team -- the team built by HOKE -- was his most talented (and best) team. I think the arc/trend of his recruiting is downward -- he had some very good classes early and now, man, I don't even know. The 2021 in-state class is really good. When I said I'd give him one more year I'd mostly want to see how he does recruiting in 2021. I already know what he can do everywhere else. I want to see if he can reverse the trend and kill it in 2021. He has to get Rocco Spindler. He has to get Donovan Edwards. If he doesn't, then I don't know what to say about him. And OSU is going to come at them hard. Spindler, especially.

So, the State of the Program as I see it is that they are trending a bit down -- if you look at 2016 as the peak, 2018 as 2nd best and 2019 as maybe 3rd (with the excusable valley in 2017). 2020 is going to be worse than 2019 and maybe worse than 2015, and the recruiting trend line doesn't suggest a huge reversal. And, please note -- I took care to describe recruiting in terms of what M has done recently -- my assessment is independent of the previous discussion -- it's measured against what HOKE and HARBAUGH have done, and relative to those best year -- trending down.

NB: I think the "Yes, it sucks but," post that appears on this board gives a rosier but not overly optimistic take on M's 2020 offense. Still, it's really good to have a poster from the outside give M fans an honest take of where he thinks the program is. On recruiting, he thinks Harbaugh has an established track record (and on a downward trend that he has to show he can end/reverse for 2020/21) that is going to make it hard for M to get up on the step with and then keep up with osu and the perennial CFB contenders. If I were in charge and looking at it from 10k feet, I'd be looking around for some top shelf recruiters this off-season. Money cannon.