Looking ahead - a comparison of shared opponents with MSU
The MSU game is looming large on the schedule, and with a bye week to obsess over many things, let's obsess.
First, the schedule between now and the matchup in East Lansing:
- 10/16
- UM - BYE
- MSU @ Indiana
- 10/23
- UM vs Northwestern
- MSU - BYE
Interesting that MSU will be coming off a bye. Seems they always use that to their full advantage in preparing for UM. This game is always their super bowl anyway, but they will be coming out with everything ready to throw at UM.
Next, I wanted to look at some of the differences in how UM and MSU played common opponents. To this point, the only common opponents are Rutgers and Nebraska.
- Against Rutgers
- Michigan 20 - 13 Rutgers
- Played at home.
- Ran 38 times for 112 yards (2.9 YPC), with 2 TD's (both by Haskins).
- McNamara threw 9/16 for 163 yards, 0 TD/0 INT
- Gave up 196 rushing yards on 42 carries (4.7 YPC), 0 TDs.
- Allowed Vedral to throw 18/31 for 156 yards, 1 TD/0 INT.
- Summary: we all know the story here. Michigan got out to a lead in the first half, then nearly coughed it up in the second half. Way too close for comfort.
- MSU 31 - 13 Rutgers
- Played at Rutgers.
- Ran 38 times for 248 yards (6.5 YPC) and 1 TD. Massive game by Kenneth Walker.
- Thorne threw 16/27 for 340 yards, 3 TD/1 INT.
- Gave up 110 rushing yards on 36 carries (3.1 YPC), 0 TDs.
- Allowed Vedral to throw 15/30 for 208 yards, 0 TD/0 INT. Cole Snyder and Johnny Langan combined to throw 6/10 for 59 yards, 1 TD/0 INT.
- Summary: I didn't see any of this game, so lack nuance. But based on the box score, it seems MSU was able to do the biggest thing UM was not: control the running game on both sides of the ball. They also hit big plays over the top, and limited Rutgers.
- Michigan 20 - 13 Rutgers
- Against Nebraska
- Michigan 32 - 29 Nebraska
- Played at Nebraska.
- Ran 42 times for 204 yards (4.9 YPC) for 3 TDs.
- McNamara threw 22/38 for 255 yards, 0 TD/1 INT.
- Gave up 140 rushing yards on 32 carries (4.4 YPC) for 1 TD.
- Allowed Martinez to throw 18/28 for 291 yards, 3 TD/1 INT.
- Summary: this is still fresh in our minds. Turned into a back and forth offensive effort in the second half. Michigan was able to establish their run game and had mixed results through the air. Certainly opportunities in the passing game.
- MSU 23 - 20 Nebraska
- Played in East Lansing.
- Ran 30 times for 71 yards (2.4 YPC) for 0 TDs.
- Thorne threw 14/23 for 183 yards, 1 TD/1 INT.
- Gave up 194 rushing yards on 50 carries (3.9 YPC) for 2 TDs.
- Allowed Martinez to throw 24/34 for 244 yards, 0 TD/1 INT.
- Summary: This was a game that Nebraska controlled until a massive error on the punt return by MSU. Went to OT where MSU intercepted Martinez, then kicked a game-winning field goal.
- Michigan 32 - 29 Nebraska
Overall Summary: there's not a clear narrative in here, but I think overall, MSU has done slightly better than Michigan against these shared opponents.
Against Rutgers, MSU played much better than Michigan did on both sides of the ball. I'm sure many will point to Michigan taking their foot off the gas in the second half, but that's a weak argument in my mind.
Against Nebraska, Michigan's offense was much better compared to MSU's. The defenses both got gashed, but MSU did a better job keeping Nebraska out of the end zone. In both games, Nebraska committed critical errors to lose.
This game between Michigan and MSU will be an exciting one, and we should absolutely expect MSU to pull out all the stops. In prior years, I would expect Michigan to get overwhelmed on the road, against an emotionally-charged opponent. But Michigan's performances against Wisconsin and Nebraska in tough environments gives me hope that this year will be different.
October 11th, 2021 at 5:26 PM ^
MSU loses if that game is in Lincoln.
October 11th, 2021 at 5:33 PM ^
Do we lose at Rutgers? To be fair the top college teams are built on 2/3 games a year where they learn valuable lessons but survive and advance (Osu and Clemson did this for several years).
October 11th, 2021 at 6:44 PM ^
Is Rutgers the same as Nebraska? We played Nebraska on the road at night on national tv in a game they had to have to save their season, that is not the same as going on the road to Rutger at noon.
We played Rutger when Harbaugh was still scared to throw the ball and they sold out to stop our run all day. Even with all that the game was not as much a nail biter as people have been trying to make it seem, I suggest you rewatch it.
All that being said I still think MSU is slightly better then us right now. Their passing game being the main reason.
October 11th, 2021 at 8:52 PM ^
College football is weird man. If you can lose to Illinois anything can happen. I know everyone wants some sunshine blown up Nebraskas ass but they arent it if you ask me. That being said just winning on the road at programs like Iowa Nebraska Wisconsin Penn State is a feat in itself and not easily done.
October 13th, 2021 at 12:31 PM ^
Is Thorne a better quarterback than McNamara?
October 11th, 2021 at 8:00 PM ^
Totally agree, I don't think Sparty survives the Frosty cold night air in Lincoln. Or that dude with the mullet in jean overalls they kept showing on the broadcast.
The comparison is useful and interesting, however, it's a tad difficult to compare the data if not side by side. See below. Hijacking the top comment so others can see the tables. Very rudimentary and could certainly be improved upon.
Side note - how in the world do you embed a table here? I searched the message board for instructions for creating a table and couldn't find anything relevant. The Pretty Post Sticky seems dated with regards to creating a table. An embedded picture will have to do.
October 11th, 2021 at 10:39 PM ^
Cool tables, thanks. I would move the YPC row up two rows to be underneath passing yards, and add YPA. I think YPA is slightly more useful as a stat.
October 11th, 2021 at 8:01 PM ^
NEB does stupid things even at home. But, I have to agree with you based on what I saw from MSU in that game. My wife DVRed it as she is Sparty fan. :(
Point of note at NEB game for MSU... MSU's offense struggled mightily against NEB, especially in the second half. Zero first downs. Of course, they had one less possession because of punt return TD, but they stuffed Walker and the CBs played pretty good against their WRs. We might have an issue with CBs but we should be able to contain Walker, unless we give up a big play.
So, I am actually not sure if MSU is better. If we can take away big throws, we have a very good shot at winning the game comfortably, but that is going to be a tall order with how our CBs looked last week
October 11th, 2021 at 8:43 PM ^
Pass interference and misdirection plays sprinkled with a few Peyton Thorne scrambles is MSUs hope for victory.
If we can mitigate those we should hammer this team.
October 11th, 2021 at 10:23 PM ^
IF
we can take away big throws.
we couldn’t vs Nebraska, states Qb is better throwing the ball and they have better wrs
October 11th, 2021 at 10:50 PM ^
Well, Thorne is not Martinez. Different style of defense... So, don't know if we will be able to pressure him constantly.
October 11th, 2021 at 8:37 PM ^
MSU losses that game if they play again in East Lansing.
Nebraska put the hurt on Northwestern in greater fashion than MSU.
Michigan had Rutgers beat from the start and then let up for whatever reason which is not the same as pulling away at the end (whatever that means.)
October 11th, 2021 at 5:26 PM ^
Maybe the narrative is that both teams improved over their previous weeks.
My feelings want to believe MSU is an illusion, but reality tells a different story.
October 11th, 2021 at 5:42 PM ^
The real question is just how much better is Georgia than Alabama. Arkansas crushed T A&M, who just beat Bama. See what GA did to AK? So, I think GA is about 70 pts better than Bama based on common opponents.
October 11th, 2021 at 5:52 PM ^
The Georgia defense was never that good when Mel coached it.
October 11th, 2021 at 6:52 PM ^
I watched MSU play WKU (my in-laws are sparties) and WKU was able to throw it on MSU. Zappe was slinging it and almost got WKU back in that game. MSU looked very beatable if you have a QB that can make throws. Most of the teams MSU has faced have been able to put up decent passing yards. Rushing is another story.
We need Cade to sling it or it's going to be a long day. Sparty is gonna stack the box like Rutgers did the 2nd half in Ann Arbor and dare Michigan to throw it.
October 11th, 2021 at 7:25 PM ^
Bailey Zappe is consistently featured in articles as one of the most underrated QBs.
In fact, our very own TomVH, has considered him as a sleeper for a Heisman candidate if not for WKU's record.
Just merely stating that Zappe may have made it look easier than it really is. I hope I'm wrong but it's something to consider in terms of our matchup in a few weeks
October 11th, 2021 at 10:12 PM ^
Zappe looked really good in that game.
As I said, several teams have put up some decent passing yards on Sparty:
Hunter Johnson - 283 yds
Paylon Thorne/Anthony Russo - 280 + 43 = 323 yds
D'Eriq King - 388 yds
Adrian Martinez - 244 yds
Bailey Zappe - 488 yds
Noah Vedral/Cole Snyder - 208 + 55 = 263 yds
State's D is rated 94 for total yards allowed and is 29 in FEI. Michigan is 23 in total yards allowed and 14 in FEI. State is 15 SP+ and Michigan is 8.
Cade's probably going to need to throw it for at least 250 yds or more, like he did in Lincoln.
October 11th, 2021 at 7:13 PM ^
I think it'll look a lot like the Nebraska game. I don't see us stopping their offense, but should slow them enough, hopefully. I definitely don't think they can stop us. Special teams will loom large, maybe.
October 11th, 2021 at 5:30 PM ^
Shared opponents rarely means anything when we play MSU.
If we get solid QB play and don't turn the ball over, I think we will win.
October 11th, 2021 at 5:38 PM ^
If history is any indicator, whoever wins the ground game is typically victorious when Michigan and Michigan State clash.
October 11th, 2021 at 5:48 PM ^
That is generally true, and probably even more-so this year seeing as we are more ground-dependent than we have been in a long time. We will likely win ANY game where we run the ball well, as long as we don't turn it over and our defense doesn't evaporate.
October 11th, 2021 at 5:37 PM ^
We will go into EL with pretty close to similar resumes. Washington vs Miami is pretty similar same with NIU/Youngstown and WMU/WKU. Shared opponents of Neb, NW, and Rutgers. Similar opponents in Wisconsin and IU.
On paper, this will be as even of two 7-0 teams possible
October 11th, 2021 at 5:41 PM ^
Although Michigan did do better against WMU than State did against WKU. I believe if Michigan played Rutgers again that they would beat them pretty soundly so I am not worried about that game.
October 11th, 2021 at 6:23 PM ^
Similar opponents? Eh... Taking out common opponents,
CBS computer poll has Michigan's opponents as:
55 Wisconsin
66 WMU,
71 Washington
75 NIU
They have msu's opponents as:
70 Miami FL
97 Northwestern
103 WKU
unrated YSU b/c FCS
Sagarin says Michigan's schedule ranks #16 while msu's schedule is #58. Michigan has had an objectively harder schedule. Not taking away msu's achievements to date which have been surprisingly positive, but I'd suggest that our resumes are not actually all that similar.
October 11th, 2021 at 7:41 PM ^
Yea the Wisconsin game is why I think UM should be favored slightly. It was a difficult road environment and Wisconsin’s defense, particularly run defense, is better than any MSU has played. Wisconsin’s D is also better than MSU’s.
UM’s defense will also be the best MSU has played far.
October 11th, 2021 at 7:17 PM ^
WMU is waaaaaaaaaay better than WKU.
October 11th, 2021 at 7:31 PM ^
Ball State would like a word with you
October 11th, 2021 at 9:15 PM ^
Ball St. could probably beat WKU, too.
October 11th, 2021 at 5:40 PM ^
IDK if MSU OL can stand up to our defense, but their offense overall has a scary look. Caveats and what not, but they hit a lot of shots and KWIII has homerun ability. I think our defense stacks up very well against their running game, but Thorne may be able to work against our CBs, and Nailor will have to be shadowed by Dax.
Honestly, if it was UM and MSU, any other teams that I have zero stock in, I would be dying to watch this matchup. As a fan, I'm just anxious
October 11th, 2021 at 6:17 PM ^
Walker is a difference maker. His ability to shrug arm tackles, run with outstanding balance and make something out of nothing which pretty much mitigate the MSU OL.
Walker has improved his draft stock to the point where he could possibly be the top RB in the draft and rightfully so. If Michigan can't stop Walker, Michigan defense will have a long night ahead of them because MSU offense starts with Walker
October 11th, 2021 at 6:24 PM ^
I think MSU will generally wither under our defense but Walker, Nailor, and Reed are playmakers. Defense will need to be disciplined.
October 11th, 2021 at 8:47 PM ^
I have been impressed by the MSU staff's ability to call plays that their offense can execute. I haven't watched every down (in-laws, nieces and nephews are Spartans) but I haven't ever said what were they thinking on that play call. It seems that they have variety and simplicity. They find plays that work and go back to them with some variation. (Something that frustrated Wolverine fans for a few years now (but not this year.))
October 11th, 2021 at 5:46 PM ^
MSU's offense vs Rutgers can be summed up in two words: big plays. Nailor had 3 catches of 60+ yards, and Walker had a 94 yard TD run. That's their 4 touchdowns. They had two sustained drives in the first half, resulting in a missed FG and turnover on downs (I missed the end of the first drive, the play by play says run for a loss of 3 - was it a fake FG or something? If you watched that part the game please help). Their second half wasn't much better than the second half vs Nebraska - lots of 3 and outs and short drives, including an interception. Their second half field goal drive started in Rutgers territory after a fumble, though they did manage to gain one first down on it.
Explosiveness is important, so I don't mean to discount MSU's performance. I'm just not sure if it's comparable to when they will play Michigan - our defense is better, and I hope they'll be able to keep the big plays down and force MSU to work it all the way down the field.
Yes, there are ways for Michigan to lose to MSU, I just don't think comparing almost 600 yards for MSU against less than 300 for Michigan against Rutgers is the whole story. There may be a delta, but it's not that huge. Especially since that Rutgers game (2nd half, really) is looking like an outlier in an otherwise decent offensive year.
We'll have more direct comparisons in two weeks when Michigan plays Northwestern, and have two more weeks of data on the rest of the teams in the Big Ten.
October 11th, 2021 at 5:47 PM ^
I think Michigan has a number of advantages in this game. I think our receivers and tight ends vs. their secondary is a massive advantage for us. We should get at least 100-150 on the ground since we've done that to everyone this year sans Rutgers. I think our DL vs. their OL is another massive advantage for us. I can't see Walker going off but he will pick up some yards.
What I don't like is Nailor and Reed vs. our secondary.
October 11th, 2021 at 6:39 PM ^
Walker is the real deal. I know I'm not the only one who sees that, but so many of us are writing him off as just a decent back. He is truly worthy of the Heisman hype, he is that good; I can't believe MSU just stumbled into him. I'm telling you right now, the man is going for a good 150. They are going to use the crap out of him.
October 11th, 2021 at 6:49 PM ^
Walker's good, but he had just 61 yards on 19 carries against Nebraska. I wouldn't pencil him in for 150 against us.
October 11th, 2021 at 7:23 PM ^
LOL! Slow down the Heisman talk, it makes you look silly. Walker has racked up yards against bad teams. Period. The one good defense (Neb) he faced held him to 61 yards. He couldn't even help MSU get a first down in the 2nd half of that game. A Heisman-level RB would have done at least as well, if not better, than Haskins.
October 11th, 2021 at 7:30 PM ^
Walker III is very good, but heavy caveats apply. As noted, when MSU has gone up against any team with a pulse on defense....61 yards on 19 carries....
MSU has gone up against the following Rushing Defenses...
IU - 53rd
Youngstown St - Yup FCS....
Miami - 57th
Nebraska - 56th
Western Kentucky - 118th
Rutgers - 72nd
Michigan - 39th
So again, Walker is very talented, but I would not be in such a rush to chalk up 150 minimum for him. I am sure Tucker will try. Wouldn't surprise me one bit if they incorporate some read options to force the D to pick between Walker and Thorne. It won't be a staple, but I would absolutely be shock if they don't do it 3-4 times in the game...
October 11th, 2021 at 7:36 PM ^
heisman? no. but he is a good back. i was surprised that he has such good moves for a bigger back.
i just hope our safeties don't let nailor/reed get behind them for an easy TD. make sparty earn their points.
October 11th, 2021 at 11:35 PM ^
If walker played for michigan this place would have a new heisman thread every week
October 11th, 2021 at 9:01 PM ^
MSUs Lbs are not very gap disciplined. We could have a good day running the all. Part of that is contingent on us having a pass game when they load the box, which they will sell out to do.
October 11th, 2021 at 5:50 PM ^
So, if I'm Michigan State, I sell out to stop Michigan's running game and make McNamara beat us.
After watching Rutgers do this to us I am a bit worried, but at least we seemed to have competent passing against Wisconsin and Nebraska.
October 11th, 2021 at 7:32 PM ^
Rutgers was getting gashed by our passing game until for some unknown reason Cade stopped being able to hit anyone regardless of how open they were. Wisconsin also went with a stacked box often, but again, Cade hit enough of the throws that we could move the ball and get points.
October 12th, 2021 at 9:43 AM ^
Cade being hit against RU and being dazed/scared from it hasn't lost any credibility yet...I think it might've had a big impact on the 2nd half.
October 11th, 2021 at 5:51 PM ^
To me it seemed like MSU actually gameplanned for Rutgers (test their secondary) and Michigan just figured they could pave them. It was clear which was the better plan.
October 11th, 2021 at 6:04 PM ^
Is it clear? Because if that conserved effort was spent, say, prepping for Michigan State and Ohio State; then I would say ??
October 11th, 2021 at 7:40 PM ^
i can see our defense gameplanning for osu for a day each week. but the offense? i doubt it. i think we just turtled on offense in the second half, hoping the run game would be enough. it was. barely.
October 11th, 2021 at 5:51 PM ^
The problem of comparing wins is that there is a chaos factor in every football game. Random things happen. Then, too, certain teams match up better against an opponent than others. Someone has a good day, someone has a bad day, a key injury occurs, there's an incredible catch, kick, interception or run that can't be duplicated in the next game, etc.
I expect that both teams will be fired up for this game. It should be a good game between two high-quality teams.
The history of this game is that the unexpected often happens. Predicting the outcome might be a waste of effort.
October 11th, 2021 at 7:40 PM ^
I believe the overall strength of a team compared to the opponent is largely the driving factor in a win or loss. Those factors you mention can effect the outcome of course. However there is a reason why vegas makes money.