RobM_24

January 4th, 2024 at 10:05 AM ^

Some aspects of their defense are even worse than what their raw total defense number shows (like defensive rush rate success). It's hard to find a team who didn't run for a good/great YPC on Washington. 

Bill Connelly (SP+) has Michigan by 13.5 I believe. He said before the playoffs started that Michigan would have to self-destruct for this to be an interesting playoffs. This Michigan team is his second best team overall in the history of CFP teams (Bama 2020 was #1):

https://twitter.com/ESPN_BillC/status/1732828361175491068?s=19

Parker Fleming said:

https://twitter.com/statsowar/status/1742739280517333428?s=19

 

And he provided this:

https://twitter.com/statsowar/status/1742557796812386537?s=19

 

If nothing else, it's better to be on the favorable side of the advanced stats than on the non-favorable side. Like KENPOM in basketball, it's not always right, but by the end of the season it's pretty accurate. 

Joined: 01/27/2014

MGoPoints: 63574

wildbackdunesman

January 4th, 2024 at 8:25 AM ^

In scoring defense they are in the 50s and their defensive efficiency is ranked 30th.

They give up a lot of yards, because their offense scores so quickly that their opponents get more possessions than normal.

Michigan #1 overall, #3 offense, #1 defense, #50 special teams.

Washington #11 overall, #5 offense, #30 defense, #23 special teams.

Per ESPN's FPI LINK

Joined: 07/16/2008

MGoPoints: 30273

Buy Bushwood

January 4th, 2024 at 9:28 AM ^

Well, our offense is averaging 36 ppg, and theirs is averaging 37.  We've played 3 top 10 defenses and they've played none.  So, I'd say we can make the argument that ours is just as good, if not better.  The problem with assessments like yours are that your arguing from the POV of the eye test.  And complimentary football doesn't always pass that test with much fanfare.  We also haven't had to score more to win, whereas UW has.   Whose offense would you take in this game, if you could choose?  I'd take ours.  

Joined: 10/24/2020

MGoPoints: 21653

wildbackdunesman

January 4th, 2024 at 9:33 AM ^

I am not saying that the efficiency rankings are perfect, but it's adjusted for your opponents.

Michigan's offense has faced the # 3, 4, 5, 9 in terms of top 10 defenses.

Washington has played just the #7 defense in Texas.

Other notable defenses Michigan has played the #20 defense and lit them up, Washington played the #16 and twice the #18 defenses.

Joined: 07/16/2008

MGoPoints: 30273

NeverPunt

January 4th, 2024 at 9:47 AM ^

Pound for Pound maybe not...BUT. There's no team in the Pac 12 who can pick up 4 yards any time they want, drive down the field and chew up half the quarter on a drive. The way we win this game is going on 5 Loooooong touchdown drives, chew clock, and maybe add a FG or two here. Washington can be explosive and put up points but they aren't a drive to drive success story. 

Hold them to less than 10 drives by eating clock, keep the off the field, and pay off drives with touchdowns

Joined: 03/26/2019

MGoPoints: 41187

meeashagin

January 4th, 2024 at 9:57 AM ^

The better way of explaining Washington offense is to say yes they score faster just like LSU but the main ingredient is tempo. Tempo is tool that stops your opponents defense from substituting the guys up front which gives you a massive offensive advantage.

Michigan on the other hand runs their offense so slow they're basically telling the opponent we'll wait here why you go and get your most rested and best dlineman because we will out execute you and pound you out regardless so by quarter 4 you won't be able to tell the difference between the 2 approaches.

The difference however will be in protecting your defense from more poss/plays.

Joined: 03/25/2018

MGoPoints: 5056

Perkis-Size Me

January 4th, 2024 at 10:54 AM ^

They're 94th in total defense, but their scoring defense is (relatively speaking) much better, around 50-55th. So they give up plenty of yards, but they're about average when it comes to giving up points. So they've got that going for them. 

Still, defense travels, and if there's anything that games like 2021 Michigan-OSU or the Giants-Patriots Super Bowls taught us, its that how do you deal with a seemingly unstoppable offense that slings the ball all over the yard? You bring an extremely disruptive defensive line that makes the QB extremely uncomfortable. And fortunately, Michigan has that as a collective. 

Penix is going to get his on Monday. He's too good not to, but if Minter can dial up a scheme that allows his defense to get in Penix's face, make him release that ball a half second or so earlier than he wants to, that's going to go a long way in determining who wins. 

On the other side, this is exactly the kind of game where you want guys like Corum, Edwards and Mullings to just keep hammering away. Bludgeon their defense to death, control the clock, and gas them by midway through the second half to where they're just bleeding points, and force Washington's offense into a panic mode where they know they have to score on every possession. 

Joined: 11/30/2011

MGoPoints: 105739

Double-D

January 4th, 2024 at 8:26 AM ^

We beat Bama while playing a mistake filled game. And we showed huge mettle in making the come back and closing this game out.

Michigan looked like they had an ability to dominate Bama and was better in the trenches. Bama looked like it could hang with Michigan but Michigan was the better team.

This was a great psychological win for Michigan. Klatt saw what we all saw. I expect us to play a much cleaner game Monday. Money is going to come in on Michigan. 

Joined: 12/21/2013

MGoPoints: 87515

Tom25

January 4th, 2024 at 9:11 AM ^

We scored 2 TDs on our last 2 offensive possessions (not counting downing the ball to go into OT). I hope and expect that clutch play and the win gives our offense a shot of confidence that carries forward into the Natty. Our offense has had some mediocre games down the home stretch (PSU, Iowa, Bama). It has played against some much tougher defenses than what it will face on Monday. The offense needs to play well and put up 35+ points to win this game. It cannot trip over itself and have multiple drives that end in no points. 

Joined: 11/23/2014

MGoPoints: 1058

buddhafrog

January 4th, 2024 at 9:37 AM ^

but his show the next day not only did he say he was wrong (b/c duh) but he said he got scared to pick against Alabama and that it wasn't about Michigan. He fell for the trap that almost everyone did. But after watching the game he knew what he knew earlier that Michigan was the best team in college football. He fell for the SEC monster image but Michigan is the monster this year.

That's more or less what he said

Joined: 09/28/2009

MGoPoints: 21378

MaizeBlueA2

January 4th, 2024 at 7:37 AM ^

Good stuff!

I feel like it was a little too "high level" for this crowd, but right for a TV audience.

I'll bet on his podcast that he really gets into some specifics with even more detail.

Regardless, it'll be interesting to see what Minter cooks up!

One thing that I haven't seen people talk a lot about, an obvious one, but we have to get turnovers. "Tips and overthrows" as Klatt likes to say.

We need extra possessions for our offense and we need more possession to kill time and limit their possessions.

If you look at those numbers Klatt put up, UW is not great in the turnover margin. We need that to continue. If we can get a couple picks or a pick and a fumble recovery or a pick and a turnover on downs...that is HUGE for our offense.

I keep going back to TCU, and remove all the fluke plays. We still didn't do a good enough job running the ball in that game and we didn't do a good enough job getting off the field in that game.

Numbers will lie to you, I'll give an example, and then I'll shut up.

Would you rather have a running back that does A:

22 carries, 110 yards, 2 TDs

Or B:

22 carries, 110 yards, 2 TDs

???????????????

Wait, that's the same thing.

Okay, well consider this...A has a long of 60, and B has a long of 20.

Now who do you take?

You take B, all day long. Because you take out those long runs and A is only averaging 2.4 YPC, while B is averaging 4.3 YPC.

B is moving the chains, controlling the clock, getting first downs, keeping the opposing offense off the field. Meanwhile A had one long run and most of your other drives are probably ending with punts unless you have some miracle QB who is 12/14 in picking up 3rd and 6 or longer through the air.

I realize there are exceptions to even that (RB "A' could have ran backwards for 90 yards on a carry, meaning his other 20 runs are going for 7ypc)...but, you get the point.

It's going to take more than loops, twists, stunts and a defense set-up to stop OSU. This UW passing attack is better than any of the OSU attacks we've faced. We need our guys to bring their best game, in all 3 phases, against a team that is probably better designed to beat US (than OSU). At least offensively.

Joined: 11/06/2018

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