Ken Pomeroy: Michigan blows

Submitted by gpsimms not to… on
www.kenpom.com Yikes, kenpom predictions are out. Last year, he predicted Michigan to go 8-10 in conference, and was largely quite accurate when it came to predicting games. He gives M a 1% chance in Lawrence this weekend. I think our biggest upsets last year were games in which he gave us around a 30% chance (don’tr ecall exactly). Further, kenpom has going 5-13 in conference, and finishing 11-19, only slightly ahead of where we finished in Beilein’s first year. Of course his predictions are based on the games already played, and it is pretty tough to argue with him that based on the available data, Michigan is pretty terrible. So here’s hoping Michigan is much better than their first nine games and we have a chance at the NIT. (I won’t even whisper the other tournament’s name, since the hope of that is so fragile that it will be burst by the slightest disturbance).
MGoBoard
Michigan Basketball
2009 Season
Ken Pomeroy

His Dudeness

December 14th, 2009 at 11:04 AM ^

Why are there so many Songs about NCAA tournaments And what's on the other side? NCAA tourneys are visions They're only illusions And tourneys have nothing to hide So we've been told and some chose to Believe it But I know they're wrong wait and see Someday we'll find it The NCAA Tournament The lovers, the dreamers and me Who said that every wish Would be heard and answered When wished on the morning star? Somebody thought of that And someone believed it And look what it's done so far What's so amazing That keeps us tourney gazing What so we think we might see Someday we'll find it That NCAA tournament The lovers the dreamers and me Have you been half asleep And have you heard voices I've heard them calling my name Are these the sweet sounds that called The young sailors I think they're one and the same I've heard it too many times to ignore it There's something that I'm supposed to be Someday we'll find it The NCAA Tournament The lovers, the dreamers and me

Joined: 11/24/2008

MGoPoints: -973290

king_kerridge

December 14th, 2009 at 11:38 AM ^

For the first time probably ever, Michigan fans mentally checked out from football and started getting giddy about the basketball season and our preseason ranking. Now it's a few weeks in and it looks like all hope is lost. Things are getting so bad I spent more time watching Ladder 49 on TNT than I did watching the Michigan-Detroit game Sunday. I should probably be banned from MgoBlog for that statement, but the first step in the healing process is admission of guilt. I still have faith that Beilein can turn it around and we can make a run in the Big Ten. Ohio State is going to be mediocre without Evan Turner, Wisconsin lost to Green Bay, Minnesota doesn't look that great. All of the teams we will be battling with for an above .500 conference record are not world-beaters by any stretch of the imagination. There is still hope, but when all else fails just blame football, it's the cool thing to do nowadays.

Joined: 07/02/2008

MGoPoints: 665

Hoken's Heroes

December 14th, 2009 at 11:43 AM ^

This is what I worried about. Last years success was a matter of chemistry. I don't think the same chemistry is there this year and thus why we are seeing the team fall flat for the most part. Can things turn around? Sure. But last years great effort put ungodly expectations on this years team.

Joined: 04/14/2009

MGoPoints: -97672

chitownblue2

December 14th, 2009 at 11:45 AM ^

I'm not saying we're made in the shade, but Pomeroy's stats often have little to no predictive value. They're good at quantifying past performance, and are an evaluation tool - but his efforts to predict with them often end in hilarity.

Joined: 06/03/2009

MGoPoints: 7178

gpsimms not to…

December 15th, 2009 at 7:42 AM ^

but not so much. The point of Pomeroy is very specifically not to quantify past performace, but instead to be a predictor. Read: http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/ratings_explanation/ As for his "hilarious" results: Yes, Michigan won several games at the end of the year kenpom predicted we would lose. But at the beginning of the Big Ten he had Michigan going 8-10, which was pretty close. Also, he just about nailed the order of the Big Ten. Come on Chitown: "Lulz, Kenpom's dumb cuz Michigan won 3 games he only gave then a 30% chance to win." You're better than that.

Joined: 09/04/2008

MGoPoints: 2080

antidaily

December 14th, 2009 at 11:58 AM ^

Down the stretch last season, this site had us losing most of the games we ended up winning (purdue and minnesota). I wouldn't get too worked up. Based on our body of work so far, it's a fair assessment.

Joined: 05/21/2009

MGoPoints: 7509