Iowa Cements (Dubious) SP+ History

Much has been made of Michigan’s place in the final SP+ rankings (1st overall, 1st in defense, 12th in offense). Best defense since 1997, and yes, 1997’s defense was better (according to SP+).

But I want to talk about Iowa: Iowa’s defense, the #1 defense for the vast majority of the season, fell to 3rd in SP+ thanks to three things: 1) the absolute dominance of Michigan and Ohio State, 2) a broken B1G West, and 3) getting hung out to dry by their offense.

Iowa’s offense is ranked…129th. Somehow, there were 4 teams worse on offense than Iowa (Kent St., Akron, Ball St., EMU). This was also due to three factors: 1) roster-decimating injuries, 2) terrible position coaching, and 3) “Offensive” “Coordinator” “Brian” Ferentz. [I’d also add in the Kirk “Can’t Be Bothered” Ferentz factor.]

That’s an SP+ Gap of 126 spots, which is historically mismatched. Bill Connelly put out historical SP+ rankings going all the way back the 1880s. Here’s the definitive list of the Most Mismatched Offenses and Defenses in the History of Football. Ever.

 Let’s talk takeaways:

• Dude what was in the water in the 1970s???
• We have an almost even distribution between IOWAs and AWOI (Inverse Iowas)
• Having an SP+ Gap historically large was a near-impossible achievement for Iowa this year: in the past, there were more teams in Div1/FBS/whatever it was called, so you COULD match the 20th best defense with the 141st best offense.
• It’s REALLY hard to have a successful season with a mismatched offense and defense – I’ll argue that Iowa’s 10 wins are more impressive than Arizona State’s 10 wins. If you really commit to winning shootouts and have the top offense in the nation, you can win shootouts. Way harder to win rock fights.

Those of you who have been reading Iowatch this year know that I’ve been rooting for this outcome ever since Cade McNamara got injured and it became clear that Iowa’s offense was going to plumb some serious depths this season.

I want to be clear that Iowa’s defense from this season was absolutely amazing and deserves all the accolades and credit that we can give them; their SP+ rating makes them better than every single Moeller defense, all Carr defenses except 1995-1997, and all Harbaugh-era defenses until this year.

[You can decide for yourself whether the abysmal state of B1G West offenses skews Iowa’s defensive ratings. My personal opinion is that it does…but absent any way to account for that statistically I don’t feel that we can discount Iowa’s achievements on defense.]