If you did not think the SEC could be more irresponsible....
LSU is turning Tiger Stadium into the biggest bar in the country and not even doing wellness checks upon entry.
#LSU announces changes to its gameday COVID-19 protocols:
— Brody Miller (@BrodyAMiller) October 5, 2020
-No CDC wellness checks, which an LSU spokesperson says is to increase speed of entry and reduce build up in lines.
-The return of alcohol sales
October 6th, 2020 at 2:15 PM ^
First of all, you don’t understand herd immunity. Second, no city is anywhere near herd immunity. Most states at are about 9 percent. You need to be at 60 minimum before you can even begin to contemplate herd immunity. Stop spouting anti-science Fox News bullshit. There’s literally no science guiding your argument.
October 6th, 2020 at 2:33 PM ^
I haven't used the phrase "herd immunity" in any post in this thread.
(well, I suppose that sentence is a paradox, ha ha. I haven't used that phrase prior to this post)
----------
Anyway, to repeat my wording, "benefiting from a degree of immunity in the community." And if one considers the Reproduction Number formula, that does factor into it.
R0 (Reproduction Number) =
Rt * (1-x)
where
Rt = Reproduction number when everyone is susceptible to the disease.
x - % of the population that is not susceptible to the disease.
The higher that x is, the lower that R0 goes.
October 6th, 2020 at 10:52 AM ^
Thank you BDC. While the South experienced a spike in the summer months - Louisiana and Florida were among the early states with bad outbreaks. LA had a bad outbreak connected to Mardi Gras. And you're right: the virus hammered states like MI, NY, NJ, WA and others early on largely due to the fact that they are international ports of entry and we didn't know much about the disease and testing was literally non-existent at that time (contact tracing still seems non-existent). Those states succeeded in drastically slowing the spread by ramping up testing and locking down.
For the rest of the U.S., there's no excuse. The idea that the virus is 'just working its way through those areas now' and that 'herd immunity is building' is complete bullshit. Those states had an opportunity to get ahead of the virus and put in policies to prevent it from spreading in their communities. But most of them did nothing. By the summer - when areas in the south and midwest started to see increases in cases- we knew that social distancing and lockdowns worked, we knew that masks worked, we knew that certain people and populations were more vulnerable. So - if those states actually responded the way they should have, we'd be done with this by now and it would be a non-issue. And I wouldn't be pissed off about people taking stupid risks to watch fucking football (I now root for every home team with fans to suffer an embarassing loss in front of said fans).
And Florida and Louisiana are essentially still in the middle of a prolonged first wave outbreak.
October 6th, 2020 at 1:28 PM ^
For the rest of the U.S. - there's no excuse. The idea that the virus is 'just working its way through those areas now' and that 'herd immunity is building' is complete bullshit. Those states had an opportunity to get ahead of the virus and put in policies to prevent it from spreading in their communities but most of them did nothing.
Most states went on some sort of lockdown. Some went on major lockdowns, and still the virus proliferated. We all agree a forced lockdown for an indeterminate period of time is not sustainable. The point was to flatten the curve and for the most part we’ve done that. People were talking “1-2 million dead” back in March-April. We’re nowhere near that.
People blaming Trump or Biden, it’s stupid. Look, you can’t make people do what you want them to. This is America and, for better or worse, it’s a free country and have a long history of looking at our government and going “nah” and doing things our own way. There’s large segments of society that don’t give a fuck who is in charge, republican or dem, they’re going to live their life their way.
Masks? Not wearing it. Social distance? Going to the bar every night. Lockdown? Heading over to my brothers for dinner.
This is a virus, and this is America. We’re only preventing it from overwhelming the healthcare system, fighting an uphill battle against people who dont give a fuck. Cuz freedom.
October 6th, 2020 at 4:54 PM ^
You actually seem to be making my point. You're acknowledging that the policies I mentioned - social distancing, lockdowns, masks - actually work. But many areas did not actually do them properly or for long enough. Of course we can get people do certain things: they're called laws.
The reason we didn't hit 1-2m deaths was because of the policies mentioned above. And most of us took precautions to avoid contracting the disease. And that indeed flattened the curve. But it wasn't enough. The reason we have 200,000+ deaths is that we did not do them long enough and some states hardly did anything. It could be much lower.
My stupid state did a half-ass lockdown and basically opened all bars and businesses in May. It led to an outbreak in the summer we're still dealing with. Florida's governor removed all restrictions the other day; there will probably be a bump in cases in a few weeks.
It's simple - there are things that work. We just have to do them.
October 6th, 2020 at 5:23 PM ^
No. l’m not making your point. What I’m saying is
a) those things did work to flatten the curve ... but I’d argue the reason for 200,000 deaths and not less deaths is the people, not the government policy. All states, regardless of the politics of the leadership, essentially locked down. All states, red and blue, have had covid surges. You can make all the policy you want, hard to make the people actually abide by it
b) this is America. Our country started because we didn’t want to obey the laws and govt. All of us break laws all the time. We love our freedoms to the point we exercise them even if it hurts ourselves and others ... Trump and Biden could come together and create a “perfect lockdown” and millions of Americans would just tell them to F off and keep doing what they do.
c) Unless you want to be a third world country, the lockdowns are not sustainable long term, which you seem to be advocating for. The point was never to destroy the economy ... it was to flatten the curve, which has already happened. We succeeded.
You seem to be using todays mindset (minimize infection and minimize death for all people) and judging past decisions (flatten the curve) based on it. The point was never to totally minimize deaths and infections. American attitude makes that impossible. The point was to flatten the curve so our healthcare system could cope, and not destroy the economy.
What good is only 8,000 dead vs 200,000 dead from covid if unemployment is 30%, we’re in a Great Depression, and people are dying from starvation, lack of health care? What good is only 8,000 dead vs 200,000 dead from covid if we all have to give up our freedom? Some people are happy to give up freedom and abide by gov’t mandate. Most are not.
October 6th, 2020 at 7:03 PM ^
Well, our economy is fucked and we still have corona all over the damn place so that didn't work out.
Only 8,000 deaths was likely never possible, but 60,000-100,000 probably was. I don't agree with all this 'freedom' nonsense. This is a case of failed leadership, starting from the top and trickling down to several other states and localities. Our freedom doesn't make us stupid (although, I will agree for many people it does). We knew we had to do but we didn't have the will to do it.
And here's the thing with the lockdowns in relation to the virus: they wouldn't have to be long-term or indefinite because the numbers would go down close to zero. This is the scenario that has played out in NY and NJ over the last several months: the virus is now down to manageable numbers. Life is somewhat back to normal there because the policies worked and people were careful and took it seriously. Meanwhile, my state and others are still seeing high testing positivity rates.
October 6th, 2020 at 8:16 AM ^
Here's the current Florida incident and death rate and past month trend:
October 6th, 2020 at 9:35 AM ^
Do you have a link for that data? It is quite different than data reported elsewhere.
For instance, the covid tracking project reports 17 days with more tan 100 deaths and 3 days with more than 200 deaths for Florida.
https://covidtracking.com/data/state/florida/outcomes
Worldmeters has a 7 day rolling average for the month of around 100 and also has 3 days over 200.
October 6th, 2020 at 9:40 AM ^
From the state best data source:
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/96dd742462124fa0b38ddedb9b25e429
Link to overall testing which if drilled down into the above:
https://covidtracking.com/data
Go to Florida best current data source and the above link. Drill into "Where this . . ." box to get to the rest of it.
I don't have any relevant details and cannot confirm my thesis, but your Florida outcomes death reporting may relate to the date it was reported rather than the true date of death. I believe the current data source spreads the numbers back to the actual date of deaths.
October 6th, 2020 at 9:54 AM ^
The "death by date" trend looks good because it is incomplete. What you are thinking of is deaths reported by date. It takes days if not weeks (especially in Florida) for deaths to be properly reported and recorded. So that today, deaths will be reported and recorded going back a week to the previous weeks. The last week or two of death by date data will always appear to show an improving situation.
Florida has seen an improvement, but they are starting to see that improvement plateau at still dangerous levels. And as their Governor appears to have learned nothing from opening too quickly in an improving situation, I would expect them to be in an escalating situation sooner rather than later.
October 6th, 2020 at 10:11 AM ^
While it is true that the data will change over time, there is no doubt that the trend in Florida is improving. There are other metrics on the site that show this fact if you choose to believe the data.
The Governor has used a 10% positive testing rate as the ramping back indicator and the State is fairly wide open since the current rate is below 5%.
There is always a chance of escalation in cases, but facts will tell the truth. Florida is subject to a case influx from tourism but has taken the more open road than some states in support of small businesses and tourism.
The spectrum of options is to close everything or to open everything. The approach used in Florida is toward the open side of the spectrum.
October 6th, 2020 at 10:49 AM ^
Florida has hardly been a bastion of proper covid data reporting, so I wouldn't put much stock in your 5% number. Reputable third party sites show Florida with a positive test rate still over 10% and a daily new infection rate still over 10/100k. Both considered red flags by experts. Yet the governor ordered bars and restaurants, basically the number one vector of covid spread, to open at 100% capacity. There's favoring the open side of the spectrum and then there is simple imprudence. This is the latter. Maybe improving weather and personal decision making will keep this from being a bad result, but I wouldn't count on it.
October 6th, 2020 at 11:12 AM ^
Here's what Covidtacking.com says about Florida's data, graded it an "A": As a point of reference, MI graded an A+ and NY graded a B.
October 6th, 2020 at 2:54 PM ^
Test positivity is not the same as the underlying data. Other sources (e.g. covid exit strategy) use that same data and calculate the positivity as 11%. They also rate Florida as having uncontrolled spread using that same data. Covid Act Now rates them a bit better at “at risk of an outbreak”. Fauci has also expressed significant concern about Florida’s plans. That is three independent sources that have all agreed that Florida is not in great shape.
October 6th, 2020 at 4:45 PM ^
I have not investigated two of the three sources that you refer to above. Have these organizations fully disclosed their methodology? Do they have any underlying political objectives?
The calculations of positivity rates don't agree with Florida and I haven't seen a reason for the discrepancy. Fauci making a statement about concerns for Florida and your conclusion does not seem to mesh completely.
Here is the reference to the page with Florida's data. Perhaps someone can figure it out.
I'm open for a discussion of the errors in Florida's data.
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/96dd742462124fa0b38ddedb9b25e429
Florida Testing Tab
Florida Health Metrics Tab
October 6th, 2020 at 5:41 PM ^
I looked a little deeper and the two sources use incidence rates per 100K rather than positivity rates. So, a current Florida incidence rate would be about 2500 cases/21.5 million X100,000=11.63 cases per 100,000 and that is deemed by one site to be uncontrolled spread and deemed by the other site as a slow spread.
October 6th, 2020 at 8:50 AM ^
Maybe Trump should replace Dr. Fauci with Dr. NittanyFan since he seems to be the leading expert in infectious disease. Not sure why there is all this uncertainty swirling around the medical profession thinking that we are about to get slammed in the winter months. Not sure why cases are steadily increasing in NE states now after we should have all gotten herd immunity by now!
Please Dr. NittanyFan, are there any explanations to the concerns above? What do your colleagues say? Oh, you only specialize in fake news? So how can I rely on the facts you are giving to the public? Oh I can't? Well I guess i'll just defer to actual medical professionals and scientists.
October 6th, 2020 at 9:42 AM ^
You don't need to be Dr. Fauci to observe facts and trends and form your own opinions based on those facts.
Not to mention, there are plenty of doctors that don't go on TV that have differing opinions to Dr. Fauci. I've talked to several, working for a hospital company, that think he's mostly full of crap, and some who agree with a lot of what he says.
It does seem to have to "hit" everywhere eventually. It does seem to have to get a certain percentage of population quickly. And once it does it then just trickles along at a spread rate higher than a normal flu/cold but easily manageable by local resources given reasonable precautions.
And you know, I'm fine with whoever those local resources are doing whatever they want to do to keep stuff under control. They were elected by those people. If they feel the people who elected them want most everything shut down forever, and masks everywhere, go for it.
October 6th, 2020 at 9:58 AM ^
not all opinions are equal.
there is a reason why some opinions are not included in science textbooks.
October 6th, 2020 at 10:08 AM ^
And what facts are we dealing with here? Anecdotal evidence? My mom is a neurologist at Northwestern, my sister is a nurse practitioner, and my girlfriend is a med student. From my anecdotal evidence, all their colleagues, classmates, and friends do not support the claim you and many others are making about herd immunity and that Fauci and other prominent scientists are "full of crap".
People making claims that herd immunity will save us without doing the proper research (like actual people in the medical field are) is irresponsible and dangerous, especially given that we are talking about college football fans being allowed to attend games in order to get drunk in front of their favorite team.
I know we are living in the age of fake news and misinformation. I just don't understand how people can distrust professionals who have dedicated their lives to research and trust in random people on the internet. So yeah, don't trust Fauci, who is one of the leading experts in immunology. Let's trust Donald Trump or Tucker Carlson or my friend who works at a hospital who knows a doctor who thinks herd immunity is gonna save us all so don't wear a mask.
October 6th, 2020 at 10:53 AM ^
Remember being told by the medical community that masks don't work, people won't wear them correctly, just wash your hands? I do. I agree with you for the most part, but the medical field bears some of the blame for the public's mistrust of them.
October 6th, 2020 at 11:55 AM ^
to be fair the early statements were 'not enough evidence that masks worn by general public are beneficial, yet'
people still don't wear them correctly right now when told it does indeed work, so...
nobody said 'just' wash your hands. it was in addition to social distancing and later wearing masks.
October 6th, 2020 at 9:48 PM ^
Agree to a point. I paraphrased... However, that was the gist of the message as I recall. I found it appalling at the time and have found the lack of accountability by those who put the message out there equally disturbing.
I work in the medical field. If someone comes in sick, you are trained to put a mask on them to protect others. That has been protocol for a long time.
To say "there isn't enough evidence that masks worn by the general public are beneficial, yet" was intellectually dishonest. Turns out these things designed to stop the spread of germs? Yeah, they stop the spread of germs after all... Who knew.... Glad we figured that out...
Some people don't wash their hands correctly, that doesn't mean we tell people not to bother...
They said what they said to stop a run on masks and to reduce panic. It might have been the right thing to do. Telling a lie for the right reasons has repercussions, however.
I respectfully disagree is all. A good article on the topic if anyone is interested. I have no clue how to embed it...
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/opinion/coronavirus-face-masks.html
October 6th, 2020 at 12:11 PM ^
Since you seem to know so many people in the medical field then you should know that there is almost never a medical consensus on anything.
October 6th, 2020 at 12:35 PM ^
Which is why we should defer to the top professionals in the field and not rely on anecdotal evidence or opinions. This is a novel virus and opinions are constantly adapting and changing. That doesn't mean we should distrust Fauci and trust joe smo's opinion. What it should mean is that we have learned a lot more about the virus than we did in March. So suggestions the CDC or Fauci are making now is even more important to follow than before, given that they are more informed opinions.
Is Fauci or the CDC infallible? Obviously not. Are their opinions more informed, based in research and decades of study? Yes. Is NittanyFans opinions verified by the same level of information? No.
If I want information on an infectious disease, i'll defer to the CDC or Fauci. If I want information of whether Micah Parsons is coming back, i'll ask NittanyFan...
October 6th, 2020 at 10:18 AM ^
You are not a smart man.
Random "doctors", are not the same as epidemiologists, dude. And you can find an "expert" to say just about anything you want to hear, if you look hard enough. Not to mention the fact that politics play a role today that was unheard of in the past. But all of that escapes you, or you choose to ignore it. Doesn't matter which it is, you're a dangerous, uninformed jabroni. Just like Nittany above.
October 6th, 2020 at 5:42 PM ^
You are right. Random doctors are not the same as epidemiologists. It would be stupid to ask random doctors their opinion on the Covid.
I know the ones I asked are doctors I know who work in hospitals. Mostly IM and FP types, some NPs/PAs who see 10-18 patients a day 3-4 days a week. Many times those patients are Covid patients. In other words, practitioners with actual practical experience in the field.
Some agree with me, some don't. Most think Dr. Fauci is making the most of his 15 minutes.
October 6th, 2020 at 2:12 PM ^
Look at the trends in Louisiana where it clearly hit twice. And comparing Louisiana to Michigan, the times there has been a “trickle” in Louisiana, they’ve still had about twice as many deaths.per day as Michigan on a per capita basis. There are plenty of other states that don’t seem to fit in your neat little boxes. Georgia has had days in April, May, June, July, August and September with more than 75 deaths. They didn’t get to a certain percentage of the population quickly and then move to a slow trickle.
You don’t appear to be observing facts and trends, you seem to be claiming that facts and trends exist to fit your preconceived notion without actually verifying them.
October 6th, 2020 at 9:39 AM ^
Kansas and Missouri are part of the upper Midwest? What's Michigan, Canada south?
October 6th, 2020 at 11:53 AM ^
Nit-picking a geographical definition isn't exactly debating the actual substance of my point.
But I'll rephrase. 8 states that all border each other and comprise a distinct contiguous geographical area (ND, SD, NE, KS, MO, IA, MN, WI).
October 6th, 2020 at 10:10 AM ^
I'm honestly surprised you're still allowed to post here after all of your constant bullshit.
Yes, the virus CAN BE STOPPED. It HAS been stopped elsewhere in the world. We can't stop it, because we live in a country populated by people who think, and act like you do. That's the problem, deny it as you may.
You have a really odd definition of "fine".
Like: /thisisfine.jpg
October 6th, 2020 at 10:41 AM ^
The virus has been stopped in a handful of island countries and, well, supposedly, China.
They are a minority of cases.
Canada, the United States, France, Spain, UK, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Israel, Japan, Belgium, Netherlands, Portgual, Czech Republic, Greece, .....
It's not stopped in any of those places, and they're all not fundamentally different from the United States.
When you argue the problem is "people like me", you're ignoring all of those countries above when you make that argument.
October 6th, 2020 at 11:37 AM ^
The US is at 649 deaths per million. Germany has 115 deaths per million. That seems pretty fundamentally different.
October 6th, 2020 at 11:50 AM ^
I meant "fundamentally different" as regards the nature of the country. 1st world, liberal democracy, advanced technologically, geographically fairly large and diverse, et cetera ....
The poster I was replying to seems to think we should have ZERO cases in America. It should be STOPPED (to use his word). When you look at all the countries I listed, that's the case in none of them. We're not unique in that regard.
Japan came the "closest" (as it is) to getting to zero cases back in June. By August, their daily case count was triple what it was in April.
Zero is a nearly impossible goalpost, no matter what the poster I was replying to seems to think.
October 6th, 2020 at 12:25 PM ^
Dude stop with the goddamn "zero" bullshit that you've been recycling since this began. It was a bullshit, dishonest argument then, and it's even moreso now. You're literally making up an argument to argue against. It's insane, and incredibly dishonest.
We have objectively handled this worse than every other country on earth, excepting maybe Brazil and India. Not great company to keep. But sure, you're right guy.
October 6th, 2020 at 12:40 PM ^
Your own words, which you capitalized for emphasis, were "CAN BE STOPPED."
Honestly, you confuse me. If you don't mean "zero" by "CAN BE STOPPED", what do you mean?
October 6th, 2020 at 1:27 PM ^
Maybe he's referencing the "California stop" where you roll up to the stop sign at 5 MPH, look both ways, and then keep going.
October 6th, 2020 at 2:27 PM ^
Yes - transmission rates decrease with lower social interaction. I don't deny that. That is basic science.
I think it is fair for me, however, to point out that you have not answered my question. What exactly do you mean by "can be stopped"? What exactly is your goalpost for success?
For the record, my goalpost is "no hospital overload." Which hasn't really happened anywhere (outside of the Rio Grande Valley for a few days in early July) anywhere in America since March.
October 6th, 2020 at 2:46 PM ^
I have answered your question several times in the past, with very detailed responses. You choose to ignore them. I'm done playing your bullshit, dishonest argument game. You have been shown to be absolutely wrong by many people here, with ample evidence provided. You just keep reverting to the same exact tired ass "arguments" that have continually been disproven. Absolutely nothing will change your mind, or any of the dozen or so others here who spout the same trash. I'm done.
October 6th, 2020 at 3:24 PM ^
For the record, my goalpost is "no hospital overload." Which hasn't really happened anywhere (outside of the Rio Grande Valley for a few days in early July) anywhere in America since March.
FYI - doctors in Green Bay, WI just submitted a plea to residents and local leaders to take the covid threat seriously since hospitals in the area are under extreme stress due to rapidly increasing covid-related patients requiring care.
https://www.greenbaypressgazette.com/story/news/2020/10/02/coronavirus-…
A direct quote from the letter submitted by physicians: "We are overwhelmed." This is Green Bay, WI. In early October, 2020. It's almost 8 months since the pandemic supposedly began in the U.S., and some hospitals ARE overloaded. And the regular flu season has yet to commence.
October 6th, 2020 at 4:46 PM ^
I've heard about Green Bay, but then you go to the Wisconsin government website and you see this:
Hospital bed usage in the Northeast part of the state (which includes Green Bay), as of September 29, is at 74.8% of capacity.
That 74.8% number is LOWER than the Badger State as a whole (81.8%).
IUC bed usage in the Northeast part of the state, as of September 29, is at 64.1% of capacity.
That 64.1% number is also LOWER than the Badger State as a whole (80.6%).
Also, those Wisconsin state-wide numbers are only marginally higher versus what they were in early August. Only higher by 1-2 percentage points.
---------------------
https://www.dhs.wisconsin.gov/covid-19/capacity.htm
---------------------
So, that particular narrative --- which has gained some steam of late (certain news media elements help to amplify this story) --- does not fit with the data published on Wisconsin's own governmental website.
This disconnect between (1) published numbers and (2) established narrative needs to be reconciled. Until it is, I don't believe the "established narrative."
October 6th, 2020 at 12:52 PM ^
No. I live in Alabama. I think you are referencing herd jmmunity. Which requires a larger % of the population to be infected.
Since there is evidence that people can be infected by Covid 19 more than once, herd immunity may not even be all that helpful.
October 6th, 2020 at 2:10 PM ^
You are spouting utter nonsense. The virus doesn’t just pass through like a storm that’s never to return. It hits it waves. The waves’ size depends on the degree to which people follow safety protocols. When people don’t, the waves get bigger. You literally have no idea how this works. Unbelievably ignorant and irresponsible.
October 6th, 2020 at 1:07 AM ^
Geaux COVID!
October 6th, 2020 at 1:41 AM ^
Faux COVID?
October 6th, 2020 at 1:18 AM ^
Just like the football team, the whole campus must have herd immunity!
October 6th, 2020 at 12:33 PM ^
Ed O, is that you?