If Harbaugh stays, what's the best case scenario?

Submitted by colonel on November 22nd, 2020 at 7:35 PM

Like just about every fan, I want to see a totally new coaching staff in the offseason. My gut feeling is this will not come to pass though. There doesn't seem to be any insider chatter about it. I suppose maybe these are the negative expectations people here always talk about.

So, provided the unhappy (and laughable) scenario where Harbaugh is given a contract extension after the season, what are the best actions he can take to make the program less of a tire fire? In other words, what sort of assistant turnover might help? Again, I want the whole group to go, but if that can't happen, are there positive moves Harbs could make? I'm deeply skeptical, but I want to believe.

I also assume that influential alums would really start trashing the program if we to lose to OSU again (more or less a foregone conclusion, obviously), and that might seal Harbaugh's fate. Who the hell knows...  

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Blau

November 22nd, 2020 at 8:09 PM ^

Ask again later: i.e. At the end of the season.

I don’t really know how D Brown or any defensive assistants can survive given the total shit show they’ve produced this far.

It might sound short-sighted but JH needs to grab the best recruiter he can find and restock the cupboard, regardless of coaching tenure. I’m not saying to hire an video analyst to take over at DC but we’ve lost too many recruiting battles on D and it’s biting us in the ass right now. 

Joined: 01/23/2014

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2morrow

November 23rd, 2020 at 10:03 AM ^

Evaluate the staff based on recruiting ability - and do it strategically so that we don't end up with 3 coaches who recruit New England at a top level. If you look at OSU, AL, LSU, TX, USC, OK and FL they all start the search process with two major questions:
1. Are they an elite recruiter and from what area?
2. Are they an elite position coach/coordinator that matches our needs?

I'd say in many cases, the ability to recruit is even more important than the ability to coach - though pretty equal.

In addition, I look at the internal workings of the most successful recruiting operations from competitors and try and emulate that.

I also do the same with our strength and conditioning program.

If we come back to him with a 3 year extension, then imo, he has three years to change and get this right.

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yigit

November 22nd, 2020 at 7:44 PM ^

Brian Kelly, the purple dummy, has his team ranked #2.  Best case scenario is a complete turn around and a national championship in a couple years.

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MGoCarolinaBlue

November 22nd, 2020 at 8:38 PM ^

Kelly, unlike Harbaugh, has had 4-8 seasons and seasons that are now winless because every win was vacated due to cheating

Our fanbase is a bunch of delusional fucking idiots that want to turn us into Nebraska post Bo Pelini

You are all quite literally the dumbest people on the planet. You are really so dumb.

This season we have a roster filled almost entirely with freshmen and sophomores. We have all of our NFL talent out with injuries. We have our 2 best O-line and 2 best D-line out injured.

With that young roster we had no spring camp. We had no non-conference warmup games against easier opponents but had to get right into the Big Ten schedule. We had Ambry and Nico, until suddenly we didn't have them anymore because the season was canceled, until suddenly the season wasn't canceled anymore.

And you fucking idiots who are entirely ruled by 1. confirmation bias, and 2. your stupid fucking emotions, want to burn everything to the ground and start over. You are so goddamn fucking stupid, holy fuck you ought to be embarrassed of how dumb you all are.

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MGoCarolinaBlue

November 22nd, 2020 at 8:47 PM ^

Harbaugh is an outstanding football coach. Best in the world? No. Without flaws? Obviously not. Damn good fit for Michigan right now? You bet your ass.

I am particularly impressed with how he has stood by his young, inexperienced players this difficult season and focused on coaching fundamental football skills.

The way he also handled the quarterback transition from Milton to McNamara was masterful too, which you would all notice if you got over your raging stupid emotions for a few minutes to pay attention to the details.

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jcouz

November 22nd, 2020 at 9:32 PM ^

Why does Michigan have so few Jr and Sr players starting in the first place?  Who’s fault is it that this program has such massive attrition numbers?  If you want to use youth as an excuse, let’s look at why there is so much of it on the field to begin with.  His recruiting is declining, he doesn’t develop enough players, he creates an environment where players want to leave the program.  That’s all a part of it.

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MGoCarolinaBlue

November 22nd, 2020 at 10:17 PM ^

This is what you guys wanted. We recruited a bunch of high 4* football players who expect to start immediately and be stars. A bunch of them got to the NFL early, a bunch more transferred in order to see the field, thanks to new NCAA rules which are without a doubt good for players, and here we are today with one of the youngest rosters in the country.

We've had one mediocre recruiting class (which fan negativity and staff turnover contributed to, and which comprises the bulk of our roster right now) and others which are top 10 classes. Next year we're going to be loaded and probably win a bunch of games if you idiots don't roll the dice on firing everybody.

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ashwood35

November 22nd, 2020 at 9:50 PM ^

Masterful? McNamara was only in the game because he decided to start Milton and he fell behind big early. Masterful, would be recognizing the clearly better QB and starting him prior to being down big to RUTGERS. Also, explain to me how a coach at MSU who hasn't even unpacked his suitcase and had basically zero practice time compared to UM due to a covid problem, came into AA and whooped Jim's ass? Injuries be damned. You can't lose that game to a rival with a 1st year coaching staff and that thin ass roster they have. Out coached, out schemed, out prepared. 

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MGoCarolinaBlue

November 22nd, 2020 at 10:08 PM ^

Because our roster is majority black, Harbaugh hasn't yet had a black QB in 6 years at Michigan, because that matters to our players, and it matters to recruits and their parents, and because Coach isn't going to destroy that kid's confidence and NFL dream without giving him another opportunity to get it done.

The first fumble wasn't on Milton. Indeed he even made a nice throw or two while he was in there. But when the offense stalled out to QB play in the 2nd quarter coach pulled him at a time when nobody could argue with the decision, and Cade came in and provided the spark we need.

If you continue to think that Coach's #1 goal is winning every game, you will continue to miss the point entirely. That is a goal, but it's not the single top goal. The top goal is to develop young men and put those of them with the talent to get there into the NFL.

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MGoCarolinaBlue

November 22nd, 2020 at 10:31 PM ^

There is nothing wild about my take on the QB situation. When you considered that Harbaugh's #1 obligation is to teach, lead, and develop young men, then it becomes obvious just how reasonable my take is.

It's you overly emotional manbabies who have lost your goddamn minds that have the wild takes and crazy fantasies.

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MGoCarolinaBlue

November 22nd, 2020 at 10:44 PM ^

I hear he did his PhD thesis on cherry picking, small sample sizes, confirmation bias, and being ruled by emotions, just like every kneejerk imbecile who has been clamoring to burn everything to the ground since the 2nd game of this season, which by the way was always going to be a rough one based on the roster and based on the situation across the country.

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MGoCarolinaBlue

November 22nd, 2020 at 10:57 PM ^

Milton got the nod because he looked best in practice, because he has seniority, because he has all the physical talent and the opportunity to make millions for his family in the NFL if he can capitalize on it, and because yes more than half of our roster is black and in this day and age it does in fact matter to them and their families to know that coach will trust a black player to lead the team until he can't.

Starting Milton was also 100% the best decision for the team. Gotta show faith in your guys and give them every opportunity to get it done. Coach did that, Milton didn't get it gone, so next man up. The timing was perfectly handled and you're a fool if you don't see it.

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MGoCarolinaBlue

November 23rd, 2020 at 11:06 AM ^

No, I voted for Biden.

Also, arguing that I must be a racist because I think standing by a black quarterback right now sends a positive message to our majority black team and gets those guys fired up is.... not the take you think it is.

Milton had every opportunity to get it done. Coach made sure of that. He only moved on to Cade when it reached a point that nobody could argue with the decision, least of all Milton himself. It was PERFECTLY handled if you use your brain and think about the politics of the locker room instead of being a raging idiot "WHY U NO WIN FOOTBALL GAEM" fan.

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mastodon

November 23rd, 2020 at 5:56 AM ^

So you want to keep Harbaugh, who by your convictions should never have been hired, and has failed throughout his lily-white tenure to maintain a staff that reflects the racial makeup of the team.  You should be leading the charge to fire his cracker ass, you fucking fraud.

And fuck you.

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JonathanE

November 23rd, 2020 at 11:35 AM ^

Also, explain to me how a coach at MSU who hasn't even unpacked his suitcase and had basically zero practice time compared to UM due to a covid problem, came into AA and whooped Jim's ass? Injuries be damned. You can't lose that game to a rival with a 1st year coaching staff and that thin ass roster they have. Out coached, out schemed, out prepared. 

1) The long ball. Lombardi was lucky to connect on quite a few long shots which really flipped the field. On a lot of those shots that he didn't connect on, the officials bailed MSU out with some PI calls. [This isn't to say there wasn't some grabbing going on, but you saw MSU getting those calls while the officials kept the flag in their pocket on some calls which would have bailed out Milton.] 

2) Poor decision in the second quarter when Michigan got down to the 6 yard line. The Haskins wildcat package was a blown opportunity. Michigan basically wasted two plays. The Haskins run and Simmons great defensive play on Haskins pass. After kicking that field goal instead of scoring a touchdown, Michigan was playing catch up the whole rest of the game.

3) The officials not reviewing MSU's last touchdown. On 3rd down from the MSU 15, Reed made a catch where the ground assisted with the catch. You never know what in the world the replay booth looks at (think back to DPJ's wiped out TD versus Wisconsin) but MSU should have been punting and on that next Michigan possession, Milton drove the offense down the field. 

Should the game have been as close as it was? That all goes back to Milton's problems with the offense and reading defenses. Had McNamara played instead, especially with the way he is now, Michigan wins that game going away. 

 

 

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MGoCarolinaBlue

November 23rd, 2020 at 10:22 AM ^

What do you think the season looks like if Cade had started game #1?

Do you think that because he looked good in relief, he necessarily would have looked good with the mental pressure of being a starter and the weight of the unreal expectations of this fanbase?

I'm very interested to see how Cade looks next week. Mentally, it will be the first time he has spent a week knowing that on Saturday, he's Michigan's guy.

If he looks good against PSU, the future is bright.

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MGoCarolinaBlue

November 22nd, 2020 at 9:01 PM ^

You have to win 9 before you can win 12. Teams don't become title contenders overnight. Program stability matters. Harbaugh had us in the hunt in 2016, we knew at the beginning of the 2015 season that due to roster factors it was going to be hard to get back there if we didn't capitalize on that one opportunity, but capitalizing on that one opportunity is less likely than not. Each season you're going to have somewhere around 5-7 playoff quality teams, only 1 is going to emerge with a championship. Sorry, those are the numbers.

I know without a doubt that if this fanbase had more literacy with math and statistics, people would be far more measured in their evaluation.

Also look at the recruiting classes that comprise our current roster. Just look at them. Look at the age and experience of our players at every position on the field. Look at the data. Use your brains. This season was always going to stuck. Stop being ruled by your stupid fucking emotions, all of you.

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MGoCarolinaBlue

November 22nd, 2020 at 10:19 PM ^

I'm not clamoring to fire Brown as a kneejerk emotional reaction just because a bunch of Freshmen and Sophomores have struggled so far early this season.

Results vs. OSU are a different story and the question I ask in that case is whether Brown has shown the ability to adapt.

The other question I ask: what DC ever shown the ability to consistently shut down OSU?

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Snake Oil Steve

November 23rd, 2020 at 12:52 AM ^

I actually think you have made some pretty valid points in this thread, but Don Brown does need to go.  It's been 2.5 years since we got pantsed in Columbus by Ryan Day, Dwayne Haskins & Co. Friggin Indiana just turned in a better defensive performance against the Buckeyes than Don Brown has the past years, and if we're talking about evidence, look at how Penn State's defense has performed against the Buckeyes relative to ours the past 5 years.

I believe Brian, in his final entry for the season preview, predicted a 5-3 final record for this season.  Wins against PSU and Maryland mean we land one game below that prediction. 

A few things strike me about Harbaugh:

(1) he can be loyal to assistants and players to a fault.  You can't argue that he hasn't tried to adapt because he has - he brought in Gattis and to rev-up recruiting he brought in Campanaille and Al Washington - both really excellent moves; the staff turnover has been killing Harbaugh so I get why he retained Don Brown for this particular season, but DB has not shown the ability to adapt and we are inevitably going to get pantsed in Columbus again this year.

(2) Team Attitude/Confidence and Tone-Setting. None of us know how much of the offense is Gattis' offense and how much is Harbaugh's influence - we're not in the meetings; purely based on changes in recruiting targets, you'd have to say that Harbaugh has ceded influcence over what kind of players are recruited for our offenses to Gattis.  Having said that, I do think Harbaugh is likely still a micro-manager and I think his role-playing of coach with cleats tossing footballs in warmups is to the detriment of the team.  At the most successful programs, the coach is the CEO overseeing the entire operation and setting the tone for the entire team, not warming up the QBs. We come out flat every game and have never won a big-time road game with Jim at the helm.  That's an attitude problem and it starts with Jim, the rest of the coaches and then (importantly too) the players that are leaders on this team.

(3) Most importantly, something about Jim changed after the 2016 OSU game. We can all see it. Everyone that reads this board consistently has heard rumors about Jim having medical issues looked-in to during the past few years (as one who was known to enjoy a tin of skoal back in the day myself to help de-stress, I've also noticed that coincidentally Jim has stopped dipping while on the sidelines too). Maybe it's the medical stuff Jim has been dealing with, or maybe it's the fact that in 2017 he took his foot off the pedal a bit because he knew he had a young team and a struggling QB in O'Korn so an attitude adjustment to keep his team staying positive was needed, and he never really put his foot back on the gas again.  

If you're asking me what's wrong with the team, it's a combination of items (2) and (3), not necessarily item (1).  If you're asking me what's wrong with the program, well, I've got news, I think up until this year the administration has been perfectly fine with Harbaugh's performance, other than being competitive with and occassionally beating OSU.

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