Hockey pairwise update (through 3/10)
With a sweep over Notre Dame this weekend, Michigan accomplished two things. First, they ended the Irish's season, but more importantly, they just about locked up a #1 seed in the NCAA tournament. I think it would take Ferris winning today followed by Michigan getting swept at the Joe, and Minnesota beating Duluth in the WCHA tournament final, just to drop Michigan to the top #2 seed. Michigan currently sits 2nd in the Pairwise, and I think this would be Michigan's bracket if things ended today:
St. Paul:
2. Michigan vs. 16. Atlantic Hockey champ
8. Minnesota vs. 10. Union
Alternatively, Michigan could be sent to Green Bay, with this bracket:
2. Michigan vs. 16 AHA champ
5. Miami vs. 12. Denver
I think the committee goes with the first one, because it provides both better bracket integrity (closer to having 1 vs. 8, 2 vs. 7, etc), and it puts a strong draw (Duluth) in Green Bay.
The good news is that, with two CCHA teams in the top 4, and two in the 13-15 range, the committee will have to match Michigan up with the Atlantic Hockey champ in order to avoid having an intraconference matchup in the first round. This is why that second overall spot that Michigan currently has is so important, because it gives them a shot at a much easier first round game.
There are a few games today that could have an effect of the pairwise rankings. Obviously the Ferris-BG game will have implications, both for the pairwise and to decide who Michigan plays next week at the Joe. The other game to watch is game 3 of the Harvard-Yale series. As I mentioned yesterday, we want Yale to be below the "TUC cliff", meaning an RPI of 0.500, in order to assure that we win the comparison against Cornell. Yale's 2OT loss last night dropped them below that level for the time being. A Harvard win today will end Yale's season and keep them below the TUC cliff. A Yale win will cause us to lose the comparison with Cornell and drop us out of the #2 overall slot, at least until next weekend.
Rooting guide: Definitely root for Harvard over Yale. I'm rooting for Maine over Merrimack to keep both Western and State in the tournament; it's not that I want State in, but their presence gets Michigan an easier first-round opponent, so I'm ok with it. Finally, although you can make a case the other way, I'm also rooting for Ferris over BG to give Michigan a better chance to earn that #2 overall seed.
March 11th, 2012 at 11:42 AM ^
i hate NCAA hockey tournament sites so much. There's no way a number 1 seed should ever have to play Minnesota in the Twin Cities if Michigan can't host a regional.
March 11th, 2012 at 11:43 AM ^
Once again thanks for these updates.
how does the committee pick who goes to which location? It seems very arbitrary to me.
March 11th, 2012 at 11:57 AM ^
They normally try to place the #1 seeds in the regional closest to their campus, with overall #1 getting placed first and overall #4 getting what's left at the end (unless one of them is a host). From there, they generally try to maintain bracket integrity (overall #1 with #8, #9, and #16, etc.) as best they can while following the rules that:
- Host teams must be placed in their home regional.
- Avoid interconference matchups in the first round.
Given those statements, I kinda sorta disagree with mfan's belief that they'd put Michigan in St. Paul. I think they'd place Michigan in Green Bay since it's closer. That would then allow them to place Duluth in St. Paul, which is a much shorter trip for their fan base.
March 11th, 2012 at 12:57 PM ^
I don't know which way they'll go on this, and there is a good argument either way. Since the top seed is placed first, Michigan should go to Green Bay. Hoever, putting Michigan in Green Bay means that the #3 or #4 seed gets matched up with the #8, and if you want to keep western teams out west, #2 gets placed with #5, so bracket integrity is totally thrown off. Secondly, Duluth isn't that much farther from Green Bay than from St. Paul (2 hours farther by car), whereas it's going to be tough to fill a Green Bay regional with Michigan, Miami, Denver, and Air Force. Of those, Michigan is the closest, and it's a 450 mile drive. The committee uses the logic that once you have to fly somewhere, it doesn't really matter where you go, and I think they'll assume that both Green Bay and St. Paul are "flying" destinations for Michigan.
Overall, I think that the committee's desire to maintain bracket integrity and their desire to build regionals that people might actually attend will combine to put Michigan in St. Paul, at least for now. Of course, this is meaningless until some more games are played.
March 11th, 2012 at 12:26 PM ^
Generally, he four top seeds are placed by geographic proximity, so the #1 school gets the site closest to it, the #2 school gets the closest remaining site, and so on. The bracket then gets set up so 1 faces 16, 2 faces 15, etc, and so that you would have 1 vs 8, 2 vs. 7, etc. in the second round. However, the committee can then move teams around within their seed band based on three factors:
1. Host schools have to be placed in the regional they are hosting, so Minnesota automatically gets placed in St. Paul.
2. Intraconference matchups are avoided whenever possible, which is how #2 Michigan is currently matched up with #16 instead of #15.
3. As long as it doesn't affect bracket integrity too much, the committee tries to build regionals that will have good attendance, because at the end of the day, the NCAA is about making money. This reason is why I think the committee wants to have Minnesota in St. Paul and Duluth in Green Bay, and why they will try to get teams like Cornell and Union into the Bridgeport regional.
Normally, Michigan would get sent to Green Bay, but in order to preserve bracket integrity and to build a well-attended Green Bay regional, I think Michigan right now gets sent to St. Paul. Ideally, Minnesota will win out from here and move up the pairwise, so that it will make more sense to have Michigan in Green Bay.
March 11th, 2012 at 11:53 AM ^
throw darts at a map
i really dislike how bracket integrity usually gets thrown out the window in favor of attendance concerns. if ther regional sites can't get the appropriate attendance levels, then move the regional to somewhere else (like Ann Arbor).
No... bracket integrity appears to get thrown out by the committee trying to avoid in conference matchups in the first round.
March 11th, 2012 at 12:04 PM ^
If you go to the CCHA website, a page pops up showing the quarterfinal results. It shows Michigan and WMU as winning their series 2-0 but Miami 3-0. I guess it was such a beatdown that they credited Miami another win. Just struck me as funny. Maybe a little Freudian keystroke slip.
March 11th, 2012 at 12:32 PM ^
It really suck that there's no MI-IN-OH regional this year. I'm really hoping to avoid playing Minnesota or UMD in either of the western sites
March 11th, 2012 at 12:49 PM ^
any chance at the number 1 overall seed?
March 11th, 2012 at 12:59 PM ^
BC has way too big a lead in the RPI, and they can't lose enough games to make it happen. However, right now we are actually getting the one thing that the #1 overall seed wants, which is a matchup with the one automatic qualifier that isn't in the top 16, so it doesn't really matter at the moment.
I really hope we dont draw the AH champ, they are always a tough out...
AFA beat UM last time they played in the tourney.
I think it's a wonderful idea but I live in Orlando so I'll actually get to go! No one has any clue as to what hockey is around here though, unless they are from up north.
As stated above, and not that it matters from one more individual, but thanks for putting these posts together. It's a great way (summary) to keep updated on more than just the CCHA. I always enjoy reading them. So, thanks again.
I would prefer not to play Minnesota or UM-Duluth in St . Paul
I would prefer a matchup with an AHA team in GB
Too much home ice advantage and fan support for the minnesota teams in st.paul
mfan, thanks, as always. A couple questions: your scenarios above didn't include the possibility of Minnesota getting a 1 seed, thereby keeping us out of St. Paul, assuming we're a 1 as well. I take it it's still a possibility, assuming they win the WCHA? Secondly, it seems like there's a strong possibility that after BC, the other 1 seeds will all be western teams (us, WCHA champ, Ferris, even Miami possibly). In this scenario, who goes to Bridgeport? The 4th #1, since it involves the most travel, or at least out of region travel? In a scenario where UMD is a 1, and they want to send them to Green Bay for attendance reasons, might they figure they're doing us a favor by sending us to Bridgeport over St. Paul? It's not really any further.
Also, as of the moment, Lowell is losing in the 1st period. How much do we care what happens to them?