Hello: Andrew David (2015)

Submitted by Wolverine Devotee on

Michigan lands their first commit in the 2015 recruiting class from......kicker Andrew David. 

All over twitter now and TomVH just posted a paywalled article about a 2015 kicker commit. 

itsgreattobe16

June 24th, 2013 at 10:05 PM ^

I wonder if he is going to make shirts like Ferns.

Or be a recruiting juggernaut like Shane...

Either way should be interesting having a kicker as the ring-leader :)

 

BOKNOWS

June 24th, 2013 at 10:14 PM ^

Kickers are so vital to success. I remember during the Rodriguez campaign It would be 4th and 5+ yards on the 15 and HAVING to go for it.

Naked Bootlegger

June 24th, 2013 at 10:23 PM ^

Welcome aboard, Andrew.   PK and LS are spoken for in 2015.  Now we just have to figure out the holder situation over the next few years.   I'm a little concerned...will we nab a top 5 holder?

Naked Bootlegger

June 24th, 2013 at 10:58 PM ^

Sorry for the confusion...I was counting Scott Sypniewski as the long-term LS since we probably won't explicitly recruit one for awhile.   That being said, I'm sure preferred walk-on status could be bestowed on another LS-type for Andrew's class.

DonAZ

June 24th, 2013 at 10:37 PM ^

Well, good for Andrew David and good for Michigan.  Trust in the coaches. 

Now here's a question ... imagine a kicker who's really consistent inside X yards, but his production outside X drops off.

At what value of X does a kicker really become a strong asset?

For exmaple, a kicker who's consistent out to 60 would be the #1 recruit and the top NFL draft pick.  Worth their weight in gold.  But they don't come along very often, if at all.

So at what value of X does a kicker's stock really start to rise?  35 yards?  40 yards?  45 yards?

DonAZ

June 24th, 2013 at 11:06 PM ^

Yeah, I am ... if you have a kicker who can put 3 points on the board every time the team touches or cross the 50, that's worth a bunch.

What I'm not saying is a team can win with only such a kicker.  Obviously there needs to be a balanced team around that.

I might have indulged in a bit of hyperbole ... but I do believe such a person would be highly valued.

 

Gameboy

June 25th, 2013 at 12:45 AM ^

If there is a guy that can hit from 60 yards with the same consistency as an average kicker does from 35 yards (no such player exists in real world), I would take that kid with the very first pick in a heartbeat. You are talking about HUGE point differential between having him and not having him. 

befuggled

June 25th, 2013 at 10:54 AM ^

He was one of the rare kickers taken in the first round (wikipedia link). While there was some rule changes after his college career (e.g., no tee on field goal attempts allowed any more), he did have a great career at Texas but never did much in the NFL.

As an aside, I had no idea he did time for securities fraud.

This isn't to say a great kicker isn't valuable, but just that it's not always easy to identify one.

DonAZ

June 24th, 2013 at 11:16 PM ^

Blair Walsh definitely had a great year with Minnesota.  And you're right ... he went 6th round.  But he also went "only" 21 for 36 his senior year at Georgia, with 56 his longest.  I wonder if his draft stock took a hit because of it?

Look, I take your point.  But I think you're looking past mine.  The point I'm trying to make is that a good kicker is of value to a team, and a great kicker is worth even more.  And by great I meant someone who was banging 60 yarders like PATs.  Blair Walsh is not that guy.  Very good, but not that guy.  Nobody is that guy.  But if such a guy existed, I'm saying he'd be highly valued.

DonAZ

June 25th, 2013 at 11:14 PM ^

Yes, of course.  That was the point of my original question ... to explore at what point the value curve really shoots up.  Apparently asking questions and encouraging discussion is flamebait nowadays.  Whatever.

DonAZ

June 25th, 2013 at 11:42 PM ^

Of course, which is why I asked the question the way I did -- if X is the yards at which a kicker is strong and consistent, at what value of X does a kicker really become valuable.

Clearly a kicker who's good to only 30 but inconsistent after that would be average at best ... probably less than average at the D-1 level.  He wouldn't even be invited to tryouts for the NFL.

The answer is probably in the 45 yard range where D-1 kickers start to be seen as worth a good look and maybe a scholarship.  Consistent at 50+ (such as is the hoped-for promise of Mr. David) and the value curve starts to spike in college, but probably is the low-end in the pros.  Really consistent (90%+) all the way to 60 is extremely rare, which is why I said they'd be highly valued.  I made the mistake of using too much hyperbole.  That proved too much for some.

Taken to the absurd extreme, someone who was 100% from 110 yards would be paid a lot of money.  A guaranteed minimum 3 points per possession would probably mean Super Bowl title for any team with even a half-way decent offense and defense.

Andrew David appears to be that kind of guy who's strong in the 50+ range.  Which is probably why the rating folks were high on him, and why Michigan offered him.

That kind of discussion  was really all I was seeking with my question.

samdrussBLUE

June 25th, 2013 at 3:41 AM ^

Well, no one wanted to answer your question regarding X so I will share. I think in college it would be around 45 yards. Get inside the 30 and feel very confident you will be getting at least three points. Once in the pros you would have to be all day from 50 and in. I don't have the data, but isn't that how Jason Hanson was so good for so long?

DonAZ

June 25th, 2013 at 10:23 AM ^

I asked the original question simply to stir some discussion around kickers' value.  I had no desire to stir up any dissent.  So I very much appreciate your response.

Jason Hanson's career stats:

  • 20-29 yards - 97.8%
  • 30-39 yards - 93.3%
  • 40-49 yards - 73.1%
  • 50+ yards - 55.9%

So it looks like he was darn close to automatic out to 39, but less so further out.  Some years were better than others.  For example, 2008 was a great year for him ... he hit 8-for-8 from 50+.

There's a fair amount of articles on the web about kicker value and draft levels.  There's also some articles about fantasy league drafting, and it appears kickers are an often overlooked value item in that space.

From what I can gather there's an ocean of decent kickers so NFL teams tend not to spend draft picks on that position.  My comment above about high draft pick was supposed to be for the case where someone was clearly superman ... all day, every day from 60 with no hint of inconsistency.

maizenblue1971

June 25th, 2013 at 12:13 AM ^

I love Hoke getting quality players, even at very important positions such as kicker. a bad kicking game will cost a team games....painfully. I always wished Carr would have taken the same approach. welcome to the team.

samdrussBLUE

June 25th, 2013 at 3:31 AM ^

Oddly stated first sentence. Nevertheless, I want quality players at every position all of the time and I understand what you are saying.

14/15 you say. Does he think of brunettes?