Hail to the Victors 2021 - season predictions
I was cleaning out a pile of documents and found my hard copy of 2021 Hail. I flipped through and found the season predictions:
Alex: 7-5
Craig: 6-6
Brymac: 8-4
Adam: 7-5/8-4 waffle
Seth: 7-5
So much optimism. Boy am I glad these guys blew this so badly. I remember seeing these predictions leaving me with a sense of dread whether 2020 was just a crazy, fluke of a season or if the wheels really were falling off. I’m glad the coaching staff and the team proved everyone wrong.
Go Blue for 2022!
And…when is the new Hail dropping?
Who were the losses to, for the most part?
Taking a wild guess I would say the most common were Wisonsin, Penn State, OSU with MSU and Washington as toss ups?
That was my guess but felt better about Wash and MSU. I'm wondering more about Craig's 6-6 prediction, not sure where the 6th loss would have come from, even before we knew how the team turned out.
At Nebraska, vs Northwestern (B1G West winner in 2020) and vs Indiana (B1G East 2nd place in 2020) were classified by many in the "coin flip category" 12 months ago.
I was never in that category, but people predicting 6-6 weren't completely ridiculous.
You are right. IU was supposed to be a competitive team. They had no B1G win. Who knew?
One thing Seth was right about was that Northwestern would be horrrrrible.
Agree that at Nebraska looked tricky (and it was, that game was by the metrics Michigan's toughest game / the one they had the lowest post-game win expectancy, I believe). That fumble by Martinez was pretty lucky.
If we’re going to talk luck we could also talk about how Nebraska got their first TD out of an illegal formation and their 3rd touchdown came a play after Cade threw a pick that should have been flagged because Nebraska was off sides. That’s 14 bogus points from horrid officiating.
I was obviously thankful for the fumble but Nebraska had more luck in that game than we did.
Yeah, I won't argue that they had some luck and some BS officiating but I think some of the officiating can be expected on the road in conference play. They were a formidable opponent though and that game could have done either way. The only other such game was at PSU.
I expect bogus officiating w/r to holding and letting the crowd's boos determine PI, like @OSU in 2016. But an illegal formation should never be missed. And offsides should be gotten 99% of the time. These as relatively objective calls, and with offsides there are literally two officials staring down the line for this very reason. Those were just horrible officiating, not homerism.
I hope they all make the exact same predictions.
And, more importantly, the team outperforms expectations.
6-6 was a hot take and more of a reflection on what someone thought of Jim Harbaugh. Which is a fair sentiment but using 2020 wasn't meaningful for future performance because of many obvious reasons. Most of this board was right around some combination of w/l's that got us to 7-5 or 8-4. There was too much talent on the team on both sides of the ball.
2021 predictions were pessimistic for multiple reasons: the disaster of 2020, uncertainty at QB, lack of an offensive identity and a complete change in the defensive scheme, etc. Just look at the "Defense in Summary" section and the answer to whether the MacDonald scheme would work was a Steve Lorenz-like "No".
In fairness the stank of that Covid year was ever present and I’m sure was fogging up the glasses of these prognosticators.
Did Brian give a prediction?
I think he predicted pain
Then he was right…pain to the tune of 42-27 for OSU
Phil Steele didnt have any of our position groups in the top 50. Not one. We were behind MAC teams with several groups.
Say what you will about the hand wringing in recruiting but that was the craziest thing Ive ever seen. Its not like he had us with 2 strong position groups and a few weak ones. It was terrible across the board. That Covid season left a very bad taste in everyones mouth from roster to coaching.
Coach Harbaugh Stanforded* us last year for the second time since he has been here. We were Brady bad in 2020.
We were RichRod bad in 2020. At least the Hoke teams were in most games. As bad as the 2014 season was, The Game was a tie ballgame in the third quarter.
Hoke tailspun his way to 5-7. Akron and Uconn actually counted as wins somehow. No last year was very last year Hoke.
Brady Hoke was 31-20 at UM including a 1-2 bowl record and just went 12-2 including winning another bowl at SDSU last year. I blame everything that Brady endured those last 2 years on his micromanaging boss, Dave Brandon.
The only year that is on the order of 2020 was 2008. Much like 2020, the economy was bad, football was bad. I don't want to remember either one of those years.
I was really pleased with Harbaugh's change in coaching staff going into last year. We played to our strengths throughout the season and then outplayed OSU. We made great choices on offense and defense throughout the game and then the players executed. That's the sign of great coaching.
I am still pleased and hopeful for the current coaching staff but a little more apprehensive.
Let’s not rewrite history here. Hoke was a mediocre coach his entire tenure at UM but played up the OSU game like Sparty plays up its yearly Super Bowl against us.
Harbaugh has been on the cusp of a B1G title every year he’s been at UM, with the 2020 COVID year being the exception. The 2018 and 2019 blowouts against historically good OSU teams left a sense of dread in all of us that he’d never get past the “death star”- and Don Browns stubborn “scheme” just exacerbated and exaggerated the gap.
Besides a couple flukish losses to MSU, Harbaugh has met all realistic expectations. 2016 was a robbery in CBUS and still probably Harbaugh’s most talented team, while last year the stars aligned for a young team with a lot of talent and a brutish Harbaugh@Stanford mindset.
My hope is we take advantage of what looks to be an elite offense this year (instead of turtle games), and the d-line progresses as the year goes on. Another B1G title is very possible given the talent and historical returns and product we have seen from Harbaugh since his arrival.
Agreed. Hokie is a good mid-major coach, but way over his head at UM. Dantonio owned him with little more than A gap blitzes. Hokie hired terrible assistants (except Greg) and wasted a great talent at QB with an OC who didn't understand zone read.
I do believe that Hoke has an eye for talent on the defensive line. If Hoke identifies a kid on the D-Line and is recruiting him hard others should follow.
now go find the mgobloggers' various versions of 2021 prognostications. you'll find a handful of 'national champs!' and a boatload of '3-9/4-8/5-7 is the best scenario' combined with a 'fire harbaugh!' chaser.
I have to cop, I am actually predicting something in the 3-9/4-8/5-7 range this year as well...for Michigan State! Plus a fat contract extension for Mel Tucker.
plus 1 for candor. curious look for avatar name, though.
here's one with lots of 'downer' sentiment. you were most definitely not alone. i'm sure there were other threads but here's a start of some doom-n-gloom...
https://mgoblog.com/mgoboard/does-anyone-feel-season%27s-gonna-be-different
there's a lot of people who should be ashamed of themselves shitting on a program they claim to love that bad
East German Judge was having a meltdown apparently
i remember not even being able to read through those prediction posts after the 3rd or 4th one. it was all a bunch of "fire harbaugh and hire matt 'skinny brady hoke' campbell"
AN ohio state fans had nicer things to say about our program than many of our own fans at times
In that thread, I saw plenty of people with positive takes. But, I understand what you mean. It was hard to be optimistic, but glad it turned out to be the best year in a long time. It is a fun read now.
You can love a program and still be fairly critical. They aren’t mutually exclusive.
Harbaugh deserved most of the criticism he got. His first 6 years were not what he was hired for. In year 7 he delivered the goods. 100%. I give him all the credit and more.
Dude could have probably had a lifetime contract if he didn’t immediately torpedo all the momentum he created by telling the world he didn’t want to be at Michigan and wanted to be in the NFL. Then drag out said process for months while watching main coordinators leave.
Harbaugh gave us one INCREDIBLE season last year. Truly one of my most cherished in 40 years of being a fan. But let’s not use revisionist history. He has produced One incredible season going into year 8. He has absolutely deserved a fair amount of criticism.
If you go by scoreboard, absolutely true. But, I think there are two other really good seasons derailed by unfortunate injuries and bad officiating.
Man, I was having a particularly negative day that day which is odd because I recall being pretty optimistic about Michigan's talent last year, at least on defense and my feeling was that Michigan could have a good season IF a lot of things went right: the five star DTs pan out in their third years, Ojabo steps up, Dax Hill comes into his own as a third year guy and the coaches figure out how to run a zone in which the CBs hold up. ALL of those things worked out.
I was definitely very negative about the offense and offensive coaching and maintain that Weiss must have made a big difference (which is why I'm very optimistic about the offense this year). And the OL exceeded all expectations.
One of the better parts of beating OSU is no longer having to see “don’t talk about ____ until we beat OSU” posted by a bunch of Eeyores in every thread
Kudos to BenVom for the thread and his optimism in the OP!
Hope you're right, and I'd particularly like to blow them out this season. However, I expect that Mel Tucker is going to be a collosal pain in our ass for a long time.
i think you give tucker his due, he's a good coach. that said, the stars lined up beyond measure both for his heisman candidate transfer and the officials overturning a clear TD by hutchinson, doubly so when it was called correctly in the first place. his unmerited providence vs. us is due to run out.
The Ghost of Spartan Bob was strong in that game.
I didn’t expect much but it was hard to after…whatever that was…in 2020. Happy to have been wrong. I think the lesson of last season was that 2020 was just a bizarre year on so many levels and we weren’t as bad as we acted. And also that football is one of those crazy things in life where a couple things go your way, you win a few games and all the sudden the freight train can’t be stopped. I mean we’re an overturned strip sack TD vs MSU from being undefeated in the regular season. If you predicted that shit off the back of the COVID year then congrats to you, fellow mgoposters, and you have an enviable predilection for optimism that I wish desperately I had more of
Most people expected Michigan to plummet, especially fans!
I said 10-2 so I’ve actually just been hit by MgoBlog
I think season is going to be a solid season. 8-10 wins. The offense seams to be such a strength. We just need to see if the defense can replace losing two unbelievably talented ends.
I predict we score 600 points this season!
Take any prediction with a big grain of salt. That goes for recruiting as well.
The 2020 year and BPONE in general did have too large of an effect on those predictions.
ptsd is a real bitch
I also went back through- HTTV- they were way wrong on defense but did forecast getting blown up once which I would argue happened with M State. Hail was fairly spot on with individual performances & breakout players.
Cyan the whole fucking team, eh?
I want credit for this line:
You’re going to scream at me for this I know, but it was kind of how I felt going into the 2006 season.
...but that's not the whole of it. I thought Indiana was going to be MUCH better. I predicted 7-5 in HTTV...
10. What’s Michigan’s record and how do they do in the rivalry games?
Seth: 7-5. That means losses to Wisconsin, Indiana, and Ohio State, taking one of Washington, Nebraska, or Penn State, and clearing rocky Northwestern, Rutgers, Maryland, and WMU. They beat Michigan State, unless they move that to a night game and it goes past midnight to October 31, because the only ghosts I believe in are the ones that haunt Michigan on Halloween.
...but then updated it to 8-4 when I did the season preview in August.
Final Verdict
I honestly can’t tell you which is more likely. But I can paint a feelingsgraph.
In other words if there’s blood in the water after a bad start (lose to Washington, crushed by Wisconsin again, struggle with Rutgers), the enemies will frenzy, and chunks of the team who’ve done enough to prove themselves to an NFL team or a transfer destination could check out rather than risk injury for Harbaugh’s inglorious end. That’s NOT a prediction (I hope it’s not!) but a statement that there’s a bar to reach where there’s hope for next year and beyond under Harbaugh, and no floor if that hope isn’t there.
You’re going to scream at me for this I know, but it was kind of how I felt going into the 2006 season. That 7-5 season Brian titled the “Year of Infinite Pain” before he knew how much the irony on that might mature had my younger self’s faith deeply shaken. Intellectually, the injuries and the nature of those close losses, and the talent on the team should have made me feel more confident. I thought we were seeing the momentum lent to Lloyd Carr’s program by his predecessors finally petering out. I thought he was losing the team, feared their superstar DE wouldn’t take to OLB when they futzed with the front, that going nickel was going to bite them, and that they didn’t have a second linebacker, a second cornerback, or any depth behind them. Was it reasonable to doubt back then, given what we knew? Not as much as there is now.
I am no more predicting a 2006 hurrah than I am the wheels come off like the end of the Hoke and Rodriguez regimes. I’m not even on board with those who think this is the end, even if they lose to Ohio State again.
The main difference between the Seth losing faith at 26 and the 41-year-old version who gets to share it with more than a group of friends who involuntarily signed up to be emailed is improved mental health, more perspective about real shit than I would wish on you at this life point, and the knowledge that everyone not basking in the gloriously preposterous potential of a new coach also feels this way about their teams.
Think of Nebraska.
OOC Sep 4 Western Michigan Must Win Sep 11 Washington Tossup Sep 18 Northern Illinois Must win Conference Sep 25 Rutgers Must win Oct 2 @Wisconsin Likely loss Oct 9 @Nebraska Lean to win Oct 23 Northwestern Lean to win Oct 30 @Michigan State Must win Nov 6 Indiana Likely loss Nov 13 @Penn State Lean to loss Nov 20 @Maryland Lean to win Nov 27 Ohio State Expected loss Absent: Iowa, Illinois, Purdue, Minnesota 8-4. I did it: I managed to talk myself up one win from my prediction all offseason, but it’s a very very precarious 8-4—the kind that is unlikely to get to 10-2 but could crumble any moment into 4-8.
The schedule has one certain doom, two strong conference contenders, and a trip to Penn State that would be a tossup on neutral ground (Penn State is just Michigan with the order of last year’s games reversed). If Michigan can find one win in the afore mentioned group (one nice thing please?) they can afford to drop one to Washington or various down-on-their luck Big Ten teams. Trips to Nebraska after Wisconsin and to Maryland between PSU/OSU look less daunting if you consider those two teams might already be checked out on their coaches by then.
If Michigan enters November as one of those teams, it will be the usual end-of-a-coach horror show. If they get there with one loss Michigan will be back to their Carrbaughller normal. Outback or death. Let's ride!
This is excellent. Could we have more posts like this,? The recruiting updates are getting tiresome.
After reading this again, you were almost there for every game except OSU. I think your job gets harder this year. Predictions after a great year is tough unless you are rooting for Bama.
Almost there? He was way off on more half the games (not that most people weren't):
Washington: tossup? Turns out that was a must win
At Wisconsin: likely loss? Turns out likely win
Northwestern lean to win?!? They were horrible and Seth even predicted that!
MSU: must win? That was a tossup
Maryland lean to win?!?! Like Northwestern, there was no leaning in that one.
OSU: expected loss? I guess it was still expected going in but turned out more comfortable than even lean to win