Guess The CFP Scores and Why is UGA only a 6.5pt Fav?
Mates,
So it's a little early in the week to be predicting scores but for most of us its either a week off or at least a slack week at work. We are 7.5 pt. favorites and Bo Glue did a fine (read: Wow, that's a guy who got an A in Stats 402) Diary numbers crunch on how the numbers would have us being more than a 7.5 pt favorite.
Of course UGA also plays ohio but that is a very weird point spread. In what amounts to a home game for UGA, they are only 6.5 pt favorites over ohio. If UGA is ranked #1, playing at home, and they are allegedly a 'Michigan, but better' type of team playing a team we beat like a rented mule in ohio, that point spread makes no sense.
The questions are these:
1. Guess the score of Michigan v. TCU.
2. Guess the score of UGA v. ohio,
3. Theorize on why the UGA/ohio point spread is only 6.5.
4. Have a nice holiday.
XM
December 26th, 2022 at 4:45 PM ^
Isn't it obvious the Blue Wall is manipulating the point spread in order to give OSU fans false confidence? I'm just asking questions here.
December 26th, 2022 at 8:57 PM ^
It’s a ridiculous take that it’s a quasi home game for UGA. They don’t play in that stadium and they have no monopoly on the seats like they would for a home game. It will probably be 50/50 as OSU travels really well. Having said that, I still agree that UGA is way better. People seem to forget that in their last month of action OSU was in a dogfight with NW and Maryland. And that CJ Stroud is gutless and just wants to get to the NFL. I heard some idiot saying that “LSU gave Georgia trouble”, and that OSU is similar. In what world did LSU give UGA trouble? Because they only lost by 20?
December 27th, 2022 at 9:02 AM ^
Calling a stadium that is located in Georgia and one Georgia has played in twice this season a "quasi home game"? It's outrageous!
December 27th, 2022 at 10:22 AM ^
No, it's not when half the fans are going to be from OSU.
December 27th, 2022 at 10:44 AM ^
UGA isn't as good as they were last year. They did struggle at times (i think Missouri in particular)
December 26th, 2022 at 4:48 PM ^
- Michigan: 44-34
- Georgia: 34-31
- Ohio State can score points and if Vegas gave Ohio State a TD, the money is going to be heavy on one side.
- Thank you and you too.
December 26th, 2022 at 4:50 PM ^
please explain your comment re: money is going to be heavy on one side. I’m not tracking, though admittedly I’m the slow one in the herd
December 26th, 2022 at 8:22 PM ^
It means much more money will come in for Ohio State to cover, leaving the Casino vulnerable to a big hit if Ohio State covers. Half a point might not sound like much, and it's not unless it gives a team a 1 or 2-score lead before the ball is kicked off.
December 27th, 2022 at 12:50 AM ^
The answer has nothing to do with what the betting public thinks (the sharps will always reset the line, mostly, if the public is far off), or anything fancy.
Vegas lines follow the metrics almost to a T these days. Because the models are better predictors than anything else.
In ESPN's FPI, UGA has a 28.4 ranking, OSU 25.6. Which means the model thinks it's a three point game on neutral field. The usual home advantage is 3-4 and that's how you get to 6.5.
Sagarin's predictor only has UGA only a 1.5 point favorite on neutral field. So that means the market is pricing in some matchup advantage for UGA that the metrics don't explain.
Adjusted margin of victory is the component at play here and it's highly predictive. OSU won a lot of games by a lot of points. The michigan game was only 1/12 of their season. The numbers don't apply the same availability bias to that game as we do.
December 27th, 2022 at 9:16 AM ^
Vegas must still be waiting for the sharps since 68% of bets so far are on Georgia:
https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/college-football/
December 26th, 2022 at 4:54 PM ^
1. Michigan 45-TCU 35. Think this is shootout that we get some key stops late in the game when TCU’s defense is gassed. I can see this being a bit of a nail biter due to TCU’s offense scoring a bit more than we’re used to seeing but I have faith the defense shows up in the clutch. Also think we grind down TCU with the run.
2 and 3. Georgia 49-OSU 28. The reason the line is where it is…this is a really hard game to predict. Georgia has a very good defense with some guys on the defensive line that will give Stroud issues. Georgia also has an entire game tape of Michigan putting on a clinic of how to stop OSU but Georgia also has struggled against the pass this year. Bennett is very good but can be inconsistent.
Kentucky especially comes to mind as UK threw the ball well against Georgia which is OSU’s strength. Ultimately Georgia has three solid RBs that can carry the ball and one of the best offensive lines in the nation. Think Georgia grinds OSU down as the game goes on.
December 26th, 2022 at 4:54 PM ^
34-32 TCU
42-23 GA
NC game: 45-20 GA
December 26th, 2022 at 4:58 PM ^
You picked frogs over us? Must be some reverse-psych, ancient pyramid thing to assure victory.
please theorize re: 3
December 26th, 2022 at 5:57 PM ^
As an adult I’ve watched Michigan play in 45 bowl games, and I’ve watched us lose 28 of them, which I believe is the most bowl game losses of any program in the country.
In plenty of those losses we were ranked higher than our supposedly inferior opponent, and Michigan fans more knowledgeable than me were confident we were gonna steamroll those inferior opponents. The first example of that was the ‘72 Rose Bowl against Stanford.
So whenever I see Michigan favored over anybody in a bowl game, my upset radar starts pinging. I don’t believe the past predicts the future, but frequently it puts up a big flashing neon sign about the danger of simply assuming things.
As for the GA-OSU point spread, I don’t really have a clue. I don’t gamble at all and don’t understand what Vegas does to begin with. If I was going to take a blind stab I’d guess that they’re assuming all that 5-star talent on OSU will keep it close.
December 26th, 2022 at 6:07 PM ^
The purpose of a point spread is to try to draw an equal number of bettors on each side, which means the book will make money no matter what the result. If the spread is closer than you think the game will be, it might mean they expect a lot of OSU fans will be betting with their hearts.
December 26th, 2022 at 6:13 PM ^
The number of OSU fans betting relative to the overall total is minuscule. This is a common misconception about betting lines.
December 26th, 2022 at 6:43 PM ^
I’m sure that’s true, but it also might be that more casual fans in general bet these games and those types of bettors might be more impressed with OSU than someone who puts more research into their bets.
December 26th, 2022 at 8:27 PM ^
The purpose of the point spread is to predict the outcome of the game. If a bunch of ohio homers bet heavy on ohio, it doesn't move the line.
December 26th, 2022 at 8:45 PM ^
"The purpose of the point spread is to predict the outcome of the game." is absolutely false. A point spread is created to ensure an even number of bets on each side. It makes both sides of a bet feel like they have the advantage and will win. The casino can risk nothing and collect their money on the viq or juice.
So, when you see a swing in the point spread, it could be because "a bunch of <insert team> homers bet heavy on <insert team>". It also could be because the general public was swayed by popular opinion and moved the line to a point the sharp's jumped on it.
December 27th, 2022 at 1:37 PM ^
Balancing the books is critical for a bookie to make money every last week regardless of what team wins and/or by how much. The losing money pays the winners' money and the bookie keeps 10%.
I have seen situations where a bookie (a client of mine), faced with a big imbalance of bets on Team A over Team B, would go out and make a bet on Team A with another bookie in the amount of the imbalance. That's called laying off and it guarantees that, regardless of who wins, the books are balanced.
He learned his lesson one Monday night, when, while drinking, he thought that the team with less $ bet on it would cover so he didn't make a call to lay off. Dude had to dip into his own savings to the tune of about $7,000 to cover his customers.
December 27th, 2022 at 8:44 AM ^
Wait, so it's scientists creating point spreads, not bookies? That's why the point is to predict the game rather than to earn zero risk money from idiots? Seems dubious.
December 27th, 2022 at 9:48 AM ^
You are correct, bookies.
December 26th, 2022 at 9:49 PM ^
I've wondered about this myself. Would be good to have an episode of 'The Teams' that focuses on our bowl futility.
December 27th, 2022 at 11:52 AM ^
I dont think it matters what their previous "bowl" record is. This is a playoff game with a bowl name, As of now Michigan is 0-1 in the playoffs, thanks to GA.
December 26th, 2022 at 6:28 PM ^
Well one things for sure is that absolutely not one frog has ever whooped a full-blooded Wolverine so who cares what type of BPONE, Don exhibits. Ain't no way in the bloody Congo Rainforest are we losing on New Years Eve!! Bank that and GO BLUE!!!
December 26th, 2022 at 7:41 PM ^
Don picks us to lose big games. I noticed it a few times going back to last year.
December 26th, 2022 at 7:46 PM ^
Well, we’ve won those games so I hope he doesn’t change what he’s doing
December 26th, 2022 at 8:06 PM ^
Lol, thanks.
December 27th, 2022 at 9:16 AM ^
I know how you feel…
My guess (hope?) is that UM wasn’t really into those games. This team seems to have a focus and NEEDS to win. So most of those previous teams wouldn’t look back and say that bowl trip was an abject failure because we lost. This team WOULD say the trip was a failure if they lose. I hope that’s the difference this NYE…
December 26th, 2022 at 5:03 PM ^
42-23 good guys
1-0 the meteor
I really can't say, Vegas picked us to lose The Game, though, and we all know how that went.
And to you, and yours.
December 26th, 2022 at 5:05 PM ^
So, 48-24 Michigan. We have a defense, they do not.
and, 55-13. UGA crushes the paper buckeye.
but 34-27 Michigan. We run the ball and bully an over confidant dog.
December 27th, 2022 at 10:41 AM ^
"an over confidant dog"?
You mean we're telling them too many of our secrets?
December 27th, 2022 at 10:49 AM ^
He wouldn't have typed it if it wasn't what he meant.
December 26th, 2022 at 5:05 PM ^
1. UM 34 TCU 24
2. UGA 35 OSU 27
3. UGA and OSU were #1 and #2 the entire season and they both have a ton of 5 stars. Vegas/talking heads cannot conceive of the fact that OSU plays with no heart. So everyone assumes the UM win was an anomaly
December 26th, 2022 at 9:03 PM ^
This is the key to me. OSU is gutless. No leadership and now no confidence.
December 26th, 2022 at 5:06 PM ^
28-21 Michigan
45-38 OSU
I don't really have a justification for the OSU pick, outside of that OSU is a pretty talented team and I have a feeling we're gearing up for a Michigan OSU national championship.
December 26th, 2022 at 5:12 PM ^
Uga I'd a 6.5 pt fav because Vegas is really fucking smart with their computers. I bet a ton on sports and it is 6.5 for a reason. To think why is it only 6.5 is total bait to the public.
They want you to think that cause u think georgia will cover 6.5. In reality they either lose outright or its a 3 pt game or so
December 26th, 2022 at 8:31 PM ^
By that logic, wouldn't they set the line at even odds??
December 26th, 2022 at 5:13 PM ^
31-21 Michigan
27-24 Georgia, two late Stroud Heisman moment TDs
Many Ohioans betting on their beloved bucknuts
December 26th, 2022 at 5:26 PM ^
#3 - If they made UGA a 22 point favorite then there would be too much money riding on Ohio and Vegas isn't in business of predicting the final score.
December 26th, 2022 at 5:29 PM ^
eh, maybe the spread is fine. If you think of it, we were up 31-20 with something like 8 minutes to go and OSU came very close to scoring a TD. If they do, it's 31-27 with just under 8. One bad bounce and it's simply a close game. OSU can score points and if Georgia has an off day, they could lose.
December 26th, 2022 at 6:56 PM ^
OSU can't run the ball (because they have a 4 tackle O-line and a QB that won't scramble).
OSU can't stop the run because they are light at DT.
OSU has athletes everywhere but UGA is what would appear to be a bad matchup for OSU, specifically given UGA's strong lines.
However.... UGA has shown a vulnerability to the pass, both last year against Bama and this year agains LSU. OSU is one of the few teams folks assume can exploit UGA's defense with a rhythm passing game. I'm not buying it though, specifically without JSN. Too much time for Kirby and staff to prep for a pocket QB that gets flustered after his first read.
Also, no way OSU is stopping UGA's 2 tight ends.
December 26th, 2022 at 11:09 PM ^
This ^^^
And my Draft Kings promo money is definitely going to be put on Georgia to cover.
December 26th, 2022 at 7:20 PM ^
Georgia handled Tennessee quite well. OSU keeps a safety or two back and on offense they go on 4th and 3 twice. I can't do it, Georgia by 17 or more.
December 26th, 2022 at 8:59 PM ^
Yeah, I don't get the "Georgia has a soft pass D" angle at all. Am I the only person who watched them throttle UT?
We are terrible in bowls, but I still think this staff and team is different, so 34-20 over TCU.
For funsies I'll say the same for UGA > OSU, although I secretly fear fate wants to have OSU win and pull the final rope a dope with OSU winning the Championship after we have thumped them twice.
December 26th, 2022 at 5:35 PM ^
I think Vegas is banking on Ohio State being really fired up to come back from the Michigan loss. I don’t think they are going to be.
December 26th, 2022 at 5:36 PM ^
1. UM wins 48-27. Line play, line play, line play. Michigan will have huge advantages on both lines of scrimmage. That's why there's so many blowouts in the semifinals, one team is elite on both lines, while the other is just good enough to get through a mediocre conference. I think we're gonna see a healthy dose of Kalel Mullings this game, like 15-20 carries to hammer an undersized 3-3-5.
2. UGA 40-30. Again, line play. Stroud will be harassed all game. We know this team will fold if they're not playing with a multi-score lead. OSU will score late to make it seem closer than it was.
3. OSU is still perceived as being what it was under Urban. People are also looking at what Bama's receivers did to uga in the sec champ game last year. Only MHJ is on their level.
December 26th, 2022 at 5:55 PM ^
UM 38 TCU 17
UGA 42 OSU 38
The reason the line seems low relative to the blueprint we threw down in Columbus is because Georgia gave up 500 yards in the air against LSU. I predict the Bucks jump out to an early lead, then Georgia adjusts and throws them in the blender.
working on it, XM, working on it
December 26th, 2022 at 5:56 PM ^
I think Michigan turtles the offense...7-8 minute drives-just moves the chains. More 13 personnel than we have ever seen. 31-13.
Georgia is going to be shocked..................at how easily they blow OSU off the line and score at will. TEs will be running free. Bennett will be 17-18 for 349 yards and 4 TDS. 45-14.
December 26th, 2022 at 6:04 PM ^
Kind of my thoughts on both games
how is the cross country road trip going? Any more Willy wonka candy making?