Gratuitous Joshua Christopher Crystal Ball Post - Now at 100%

Submitted by EastCoast Esq. on February 18th, 2020 at 12:48 PM

The last of the UCLA hold-outs have dropped their Joshua Christopher CBs (not surprising).

Meanwhile, Steve Lorenz and Dylan Prezkop have added their CBs for the good guys (Lorenz, despite covering Michigan, is a very credible picker). That makes it 10 CBs for Michigan, and none for anybody else.

 

I am aware that there is a post about Corey Evans saying that Joshua could drop soon. So if anybody thinks that a 100% Michigan Crystal Ball isn't noteworthy, just treat this as a prediction posbang thread.

(I'm STILL not watching the highlight video until / unless he commits)

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UMFanatic96

February 18th, 2020 at 12:52 PM ^

My prediction is that he announces shortly after his high school season ends (they're in the playoffs now). It's kinda weird I'm rooting against his high school team for the sole reason of him possibly announcing sooner.

 

EDIT: I meant to say it's weird I'm almost rooting against his high school team. I am not actively watching and rooting against him in any way. I should have done a better job in my original post.

Joined: 06/21/2016

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Perkis-Size Me

February 18th, 2020 at 3:16 PM ^

Its not weird. Its just a dick move on your part. 

If he's waiting until after his season is over to announce, I don't blame him at all. I'd in fact encourage it. He'll have plenty of time to think about his next steps once he chooses his school. He has every right to be focusing solely on his current team and winning a state championship right now. Until then, everything else is a distraction. 

I know that's what I'd be thinking, anyway. 

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Blue-Ray

February 18th, 2020 at 3:38 PM ^

Didn't think there could be anything worse than those that can't wait to comment on recruiting that, "I'll believe it when I see it or He still hasn't signed yet". (Though I'm sure you'll continue to see that with him and also Todd until April 15th even if he commits)

But here we are a step further...

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FrankMurphy

February 18th, 2020 at 5:05 PM ^

Current players should DEFINITELY NOT read these boards. I'm sure their coaches fully expect them to stay away from such nonsense. 

Recruits, on the other hand, are in a different boat. They're literally children and aren't accustomed to the limelight. They have more time on their hands than college athletes. They're not that much different from regular high school students. Though it would probably be better for them if they stayed away, I don't know how realistic it is to expect that they won't be curious to know what people are saying about them online. 

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Trader Jack

February 18th, 2020 at 1:07 PM ^

Hard to find minutes for everybody, but what would you guys think of this as a rotation for next year?

1: Christopher 20 Brooks 10 DeJulius 10

2: Wagner 20 Christopher 10 Brooks 10

3: Livers 20 Wagner 10 Williams/Bajema 10

4: Todd 20 Livers 10 Johns 10

5: Johns 20 Todd 10 Dickinson 10

 

Minutes distribution: 

Livers 30

Wagner 30

Christopher 30

Johns 30

Todd 30

Brooks 20

DeJulius 10

Dickinson 10

Williams/Bajema 10

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Mitch Cumstein

February 18th, 2020 at 1:25 PM ^

Probably too much Todd and Johns at the 5.  Would expect most of the 40 to be Davis, Dickinson and Castleton at the 5. Maybe 10-15 with Johns or Todd for a small ball look, but I’d really worry about them holding up defensively, and neither is as big (I don’t think) or as skilled offensively as Moe was in his last year.

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Bambi

February 18th, 2020 at 1:35 PM ^

I highly doubt we'll go 9 deep of 10 minutes plus. WVU, Bama, St. Johns, Memphis and ASU all play 9 or 10 guys who average 10+ minutes. WVU plays a frenetic press where they foul a ton and expend a ton of energy, the other for are the 4 high majors who play at the fastest pace. We're not them.

Unless Williams/Bajema are that good where you have to put them on the floor, I doubt they get much action at all. In this scenario we have Brooks, Livers, Wagner, Christopher, Johns and Todd who can all play the 2-4 in some capacity. That's 120 minutes to go around for those 6 guys, there's no reason to throw Bajema/Williams in there unless they're better than the other 6.

I also doubt we have 5 guys, including 2 freshmen and one current bench player, getting 30 minutes a game next year. We will have much better depth next year and this year the only two averaging 30+ minutes a game are X and Brooks. Livers I could see getting to 30, and maybe someone like Christopher if he is as good as advertised, but everyone else will be closer to the 20-25 range. 

I also don't think we'd only start Christopher at G. That lineup lacks ball handling and creation for others. And considering Brooks is currently a starter playing 30+ minutes a game, a great 3 point shooter, our best perimeter defender, and going to be a senior next year, I don't see him being benched for a current bench guy in Johns or an incoming freshman in Todd. Especially since starting both Johns and Todd is redundant and Brooks brings a much needed, unique skillset compared to them.

Finally my guess is Dickinson starts at C. Howard loves a true C, hence him starting every game with a Teske post, so I doubt we'd start small at the 5.

This is all subject to change in terms of who ends up coming and who leaves for NBA entrants, transfers, etc. But my best guess for minutes (position is relatively arbitrary so I'll ignore that) is:

Livers: 30 (starter)

Brooks: 25 (starter)

Wagner: 25 (starter)

Christopher: 25 (starter)

Dickinson: 20 (starter)

Johns: 20

Todd: 20

DeJulius: 20

Williams/Bajema/Davis/Castleton/Jackson: 15 (split up depending on who is most relevant for the matchup, foul trouble, garbage time, etc.)

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stephenrjking

February 18th, 2020 at 4:35 PM ^

As mentioned below, PG seems like a Brooks/DeJulius battle. If all these guys are on the roster, PG doesn't need to be an offensive creator, and that would suggest that Brooks would have an initial advantage due to his superior defensive skills.

I hope Howard is smart enough to adapt his playing style to his personnel, but people who confidently assert lineups relying on guys like Johns at the 5 seem unrealistic to me. Johns as a 5 is a Beilein-type adaptation to personnel; he's a 4. Howard has yet to show any inclination to play small like that. He'd rather have two 5s on the floor than none.

There's no way there isn't some attrition here. Hopefully we do get all of the top-line guys to come in, but there are depth guys on the roster this year that just aren't going to have a place next season if all these recruits show up.

We also don't know how these guys defend. Brooks, as mentioned, gets on the court because he can defend. It's possible to go big with the hypothetical Christopher resting by moving someone like Wagner to the 2, but what if Wagner or any plausible 3/4 alternative simply can't defend shooting guards? What if you can't have, say, todd and Livers on the floor together without getting murdered somewhere? These are questions we can't answer yet. 

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Bambi

February 18th, 2020 at 5:06 PM ^

"Howard has yet to show any inclination to play small like that. He'd rather have two 5s on the floor than none."

Generally agree with your post except for this point. We've seen a lot of 2 big looks this year, but how much of that is Howard's preference vs how much of that is necessitated by the roster construction this year? When our roster was fully healthy we closed the Oregon game going small with Johns at the 5 and no Teske on the court. Right after that game Livers got injured. So from that point forward our healthy scholarship players consisted of:

3 6 foot Gs in Simpson, Brooks and DDJ.

3 C's in Teske, Davis and Castleton.

3 SG/SF in Wagner, Bajema and Nunez

1 PF in Johns.

So that's 10 scholarship players , but Bajema hasn't played as a freshman so you're really working with 9 scholarship players. Then with Nunez being as awful as he's been, you're functionally down to 8 scholarship players.

So in order to go small, you can't use any of the 3 Centers so you're limited to a lineup consisting of Simpson, Brooks, DDJ, Wagner and Johns. That's a functional lineup, but it also means a lineup with 3 6 foot players (so probably poor rebounding) and literally 0 depth unless you want to play Nunez. 

Howard went small against Oregon and also went small in a sense against Purdue when he benched Johns to have a lineup of the 3 6 foot G's, Franz and Teske. He's shown a stronger tendency to go big, but with how our roster is constructed that makes sense. I think Howard has shown a willingness to match lineups, and while I do think he'd like to start a true big I wouldn't be surprised to see us go small at points with our abundance of bigger wings next year.

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stephenrjking

February 18th, 2020 at 6:53 PM ^

I guess we’ll find out. Thing is, matching lineups will allow Michigan to go small occasionally, but Howard will want bigs to cover bigs, which means 5s most of the time. I don’t see Todd or Johns getting more than the occasional look at the 5 situationally, which means big-picture lineup discussions like this one need to include discussion of Castleton and Davis, at least for potential backup minutes. 

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Mr Miggle

February 18th, 2020 at 8:12 PM ^

If a lineup with Johns or Todd at the 5 does well, we'll see more of them. If they struggle, we'll see less. Sometimes the opponent forces you to adjust, sometimes you force them to adjust to you. I really think it's that simple.

One reason we're seeing more of Davis this season is because Juwan's offense is more adaptable than Beilein's. Having Davis on the floor clogged everything up on offense last season. This season, he's got a role that suits him very well, but we've also seen Juwan go small for stretches. 

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poppinfresh

February 18th, 2020 at 4:08 PM ^

i'd start Johns at the 5 over dickinson

provides switching 1-5, better 3 pt spacing, better athleticsm, junior level IQ vs a freshmen as i think, similar to nova a couple years ago, small ball and athleticism of that line up provides more problems to a defense

even if livers go, i would expect todd to slide into starting line up with dickinson coming off the bench as a change up, albeit a high level one

and as for davis, only way he stays is if nunez leaves and jace goes walk on, which TBD (also no greg brown of course :) )

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Bambi

February 18th, 2020 at 5:21 PM ^

I agree with all the benefits you mentioned wrg to going small/starting Johns. All that said, there are drawbacks to going small obviously. Last year Johns struggled at the 5, you'd think/hope he'd be fine there next year as a junior, but maybe he's just not comfortable playing the 5. Also look at how many great big men this conference has (Garza, Oturu, Williams, Wesson, Tillman, Cockburn, Smith). Most of those guys could be back next year (none are seniors but some will leave early), so how well do we do defensively/on the glass against those guys playing small? With how bad our post defense has been this year, going small makes me think we'd struggle even more. Also it's easy to say "go small and be Nova", but they're literally the holy grail of going small. For every 2018 Nova there are 50 examples of a team going small and not being possible the best college team of the decade.

I do think we will see us going small more next year, but I think the nominal starting lineup will include Dickinson. I only slated him for 20 minutes in my post, so that means half the game I still expect us to go small, so who starts really won't matter all that much. That being said, Juwan loves his big men (hence Teske posting up to start each game) so I'd assume he would want to start a true big. Also watch Dickinson's highlights, he can stretch the floor and shoot the 3.

And if Livers does leave (which I highly doubt right now), I would put heavy money on Dickinson being in the starting lineup. Todd is a 5 star but that's in the Nassir Little mold where he's a 5 star based on his NBA potential, and he'll be a good but not great college player. He's listed at 6'10, 195 on his 247 profile. You'd assume he'd be bigger by the time he got to campus, but for the life of me I don't see the reason to start Todd over Dickinson at the 5 when Dickinson is a 7'2, 255 pound kid billed as a college ready recruit and is a borderline 5 star himself. The only reason to start Todd is he's a 5 star, which isn't a good reason.

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Bambi

February 18th, 2020 at 6:53 PM ^

Obviously he's not, but minus one game vs Oregon we haven't seen Johns play the 5 and even that was only for small portions. There's nothing to suggest that he's ready to make the jump to a starting 5.

Sure half may be gone, but what about the half that returns?

That's an antiquated view point. There were 12 C's in the top 50 to 247 last year. 8/12 are making major contributions in a positive manner (averaging 10 points or more). 2/4 who aren't are Wiseman (suspended) and N'Faly Dante at Oregon (NCAA issues and injury). Freshman bigs can play day 1 if they're good enough, and by all accounts Dickinson is.

Joined: 10/12/2013

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gobluem

February 18th, 2020 at 1:37 PM ^

I won't attempt to create some overly precise minutes breakdown, especially since lots of this hinges on who ends up actually being on the roster next fall.  Castleton, Nunez, Davis, Bajema, Todd, Christopher, etc. Still some stuff to shake out

 

But my thoughts and impressions are that:

 

PG would be almost totally split between DDJ and Brooks,

Christopher is a pure SG even though he might initiate a lot of offense

Wagner would be more of a 3 than a 2, especially after another year of Camp Sanderson

Also I would be flabbergasted if Bajema gets many (if any) minutes in a world in which Christopher, Wagner, DDJ, Brooks, and Livers are all on the roster.

 

You're right, it's real hard to find minutes and figure out a distribution. A good problem to have in some ways. 

 

The 5 is hard to figure out. Todd's more of a 4, as is Johns. Dickinson probably won't have the conditioning to play 30 minutes a game either. Who knows about Davis or Castleton

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outsidethebox

February 18th, 2020 at 5:05 PM ^

You all need to be reminded that there is no requirement for a traditional PG in Juwan's offense. A starting lineup that comes from some combination of Christopher, Livers, Wagner, Todd, Johns, Brown and/or Dickinson would be so dynamic both offensively and defensively-it would be such a different paradigm only someone like Juwan would know how to approach it. I know this game very well but this would stretch my knowledge base as to how to put those skill-sets together on the floor at the  same time. But Juwan understands this well...and this is what I am hoping for. The roster will be there for more traditional sets but I think this is where Juwan wants to go. 

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nerv

February 18th, 2020 at 5:22 PM ^

You still need people to handle the ball, bring it up the court, & initiate the offense. So, pretty much a point guard. Yes this could be handled by combo guards and not necessarily a pure point guard. But I don't want to try breaking a press or dealing with heavy ball pressure with Livers/Wagner/Johns or Freshman wings handling the ball. You can't play too many minutes with only 1 guard on the court.

Joined: 04/14/2009

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outsidethebox

February 18th, 2020 at 8:27 PM ^

Believe what you wish. We are talking about two totally different ways of playing the game. This is the direction Juwan is taking his roster. And if Christopher and Brown end up in AA the transition could take place a whole lot sooner than later. I am pretty sure that Juwan is looking  to flip how Michigan plays this game on its head-even revolutionize the larger college game. 

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