Good vs Great Coaching and what are reasonable expectations?
I know there has been a lot posted on this and I also want to preface this with I don't believe Harbaugh should be fired but I wanted to take a look at what seperates good from great coaches and what we should reasonably hold as expectations.
Michigan has some structural advantages due to recruiting, even with Hokes last two classes being mediocre by Michigan standards they were still higher rated than the vast majority of our opponents. An average coach could coach most games to a stalemate and win the vast majority of games simply by just not losing to mediocre less talented teams. As a result the actual value of a coach at Michigan isn't determined by win totals by performance against teams that have similar levels of talent or are having a good season. So I choose to look at results vs teams that were ranked in two ways, both whether they were ranked at the time (because that is what makese something a big game) and end of season rankings because that is what is probably a better determinant of whether that team was good.
In 2015 vs teams ranked at the time: 3-2, vs teams ranked at the end of season 2-3
In 2016 vs teams ranked at the time: 1-2, vs teams ranked at the end of season: 3-2
2017 is still incomplete but to this point 1-2 vs teams ranked at the time.
So to this point Michigan is essentially .500 against teams that you look at to determined whether a coach is a good recruiter or actually a good coach. with a 5-6 record against teams ranked at the time and 5-5 against teams ranked at the end of the season.
In comparison here was Hoke's performance agaisnt the same subsets.
2011: vs teams ranked 2-1, end of season 2-1
2012: vs teams ranked 0-4, end of season 1-5
2013 vs teams ranked 1-2, end of season 1-2
2014 vs teams ranked 0-3, end of season 0-3
So this clearly shows that Harbaugh is a superior coach to Hoke and that Hoke really couldn't coach agaisnst any team they weren't physically superior to. However setting brady hoke as the bar is setting the bar really low. So while we acknowledge it can be much worse than Harbuagh (hence why I started this by saying I don't want him fired) I also wanted to compare him against an eltie coach and look at Saban's first three years. When Saban came in Bama was coming off a previous 4 years of 4-9, 6-6, 10-2, and 6-7. So not exactly a powerhouse and I think a fair comparison in terms of walking into generally superior talent but a bad atmosphere.
2007 vs teams ranked 2-3, end of season1-3
2008 vs ranked teams 3-2, end of season 2-2
2009 vs ranked teams 6-0
So Harbaugh is essentially one year behind Saban and if he can have a good year next year with an experienced team of his recruits would essentially be on the same path. You are essentially 6 inches from Harbaugh and Saban having the same success rate vs ranked teams through 2 years. This year is obviously dissapointing but assuming it is a blip Harbuagh has performed relatively well vs ranked teams to this point. Hope this calms some people down. Next year is a big year, I think Harbuagh has earned this year as a mulligan.
Also beat OSU.
November 19th, 2017 at 5:25 PM ^
November 19th, 2017 at 3:40 PM ^
November 19th, 2017 at 3:54 PM ^
It's been insufferable for the past four years.
On and on it goes.
November 19th, 2017 at 4:41 PM ^
November 19th, 2017 at 4:50 PM ^
Trolls like you are always going to be here emptying their anuses all over the blog.
November 19th, 2017 at 5:35 PM ^
November 19th, 2017 at 5:56 PM ^
November 19th, 2017 at 7:50 PM ^
And that would have been hiring Harbaugh back in 2010.
November 19th, 2017 at 10:14 PM ^
Maybe, maybe not. But going along with the notion that Harbaugh is the end all be all for our one last shot at a winning program nationally is a bit misguided, no?
November 19th, 2017 at 10:16 PM ^
Takes one to know one eh?
November 19th, 2017 at 5:13 PM ^
What exactly is a rivalry to you? We're 1-2 against MSU with the most unlikely loss I've ever seen and another 1-score game. We've played OSU a total of two times under Harbaugh and lost in 2OT after a controversial call last year. What strange reality do you live in where those aren't competitive rivalries?
November 19th, 2017 at 5:19 PM ^
November 19th, 2017 at 5:22 PM ^
Jim Harbaugh was hired in 2015, not 2003. What does any of that have to do with whether Harbaugh is a good coach?
November 19th, 2017 at 5:25 PM ^
November 19th, 2017 at 5:39 PM ^
Dantonio was 6-7 in year 3.
Dabo Swinney was 6-7 in year 3.
Meyer was 9-4 in year 3 at Florida.
When there is a rebuilding job to do after a previous coach underperformed, there are growing pains for several years. If you thought Harbaugh would come in and immediately start crushing two of the top ten coaches in college football who have fully established programs and redshirt seniors they personally recruited, I don't know what to tell you. MSU has us by one game in that rivalry and their two wins are by razor-thin margins, with one of them being the result of the most insane ending I have ever witnessed in college football. Urban Meyer is one of the top 3 coaches in college football and has a fully established program. Does it suck that we're 0-2 against him in our first two years with Harbaugh? Yes. Is it surprising? It shouldn't be. What do you mean "the occasional 10-win season?" We won 10 games the year after the previous coach went 5-7 and won 10 games AGAIN the next year, with two plays keeping us from a perfect season. You think 9-3 and 8-4 is the norm now? Why? Because the youngest Michigan team of our lifetimes went 8-4 with our two best quarterbacks injured? Step off the ledge. Everything is going to be okay. If you think we'll hire a better coach than Harbaugh right now, I don't know what to tell you.
If we put him on the hot seat, who do you think we will hire that's better? Who has a better track record in the same timeframe? We're not hiring Saban or Meyer.
November 19th, 2017 at 5:58 PM ^
November 19th, 2017 at 8:12 PM ^
great coaches don't need 5 years to start beating their rivals- especially rivals stocked with 2 star recruits
November 19th, 2017 at 8:35 PM ^
I don't know if you've noticed, but since 2010, MSU's win totals have been:
11
11
7
13
11
12
3
There is one awful season and one mediocre season. Can we stop pretending MSU is a crap program of 2-stars who luck their way to everything? Dantonio has built and sustained consistent success, but it took him four years to get that rolling. The only reason he was "beating his rival" in the early years is because he played the two worst Michigan teams in program history in his second and third seasons.
November 19th, 2017 at 9:36 PM ^
November 19th, 2017 at 7:58 PM ^
and immediately turned it into a 10-3 team. Has had a first year QB in each of his first three seasons (and three different QBs in year 3). Has dealt with a gaping hole with regard to O-Line recruiting. Replaced 10 starters on defense this year. Has freshmen all over the receiving corps. Has been successful everywhere he has coached.
Yeah, I think I'll give him a chance....
November 19th, 2017 at 8:01 PM ^
Either we take only Harbaugh's record or we take the entire history of the two schools. Either Harbaugh is 1-2 or Michigan has a better than 2-1 lifetime record against MSU. Either or up to you.
November 19th, 2017 at 9:34 PM ^
November 19th, 2017 at 3:42 PM ^
My expectation for a coach that if you lose 18 starters from the year before, it is difficult to beat the 5th and 8th ranked team in the nation on the road.
November 19th, 2017 at 3:46 PM ^
For a coach is that you beat your rivals every once in a millenium.
When did we start expecting so little?
November 19th, 2017 at 3:51 PM ^
Since we went 5-7 in fucking 2014, had shitty recruiting classes in 2014 and 2015 AND we have Freshmen, RS freshmen, and Sophomores starting all across the field.
This fan base is so fucking thick. WE ALL FUCKING PREDICTED 8-4 OR 9-3 THIS YEAR AND NOW THE MORONS ON THIS BOARD ARE SO FUCKING SHOCKED THAT IT HAPPENED. WHEN YOU GET DOWN TO YOUR 3RD STRING QB IT IS HARD TO BEAT GOOD TEAMS.
November 19th, 2017 at 3:55 PM ^
cheering with your pom-poms sti.. when we lose to
ND, MSU and OSU next year...
( all away games pal)
..the elephant in the room just crushed you !!!
November 19th, 2017 at 3:57 PM ^
You want Mike fucking Leach to be our coach. What the fuck has he won?
November 19th, 2017 at 4:04 PM ^
November 19th, 2017 at 4:08 PM ^
with second rate recruits..
guy can coach and comes up big again and again.
JH hype train is running on fumes....
November 19th, 2017 at 4:13 PM ^
November 19th, 2017 at 5:15 PM ^
That is the exect same argument people used when Rich Rod was hired.
November 19th, 2017 at 5:17 PM ^
MIKE LEACH WENT 3-9 IN HIS THIRD YEAR AT HIS CURRENT JOB. He has won ten games or more in a season one time in his entire 16-year career as a head coach. What is wrong with you?
November 19th, 2017 at 6:27 PM ^
November 19th, 2017 at 7:38 PM ^
How the mods haven’t banned you and any other dipshit riding the Leach train is beyond me.
November 19th, 2017 at 10:16 PM ^
November 19th, 2017 at 5:28 PM ^
November 19th, 2017 at 4:10 PM ^
November 19th, 2017 at 4:12 PM ^
Yeah dude, after MSU went 6-7, Sparty should of fired Mark Dantonio, because he couldn't win in his third year!
November 19th, 2017 at 5:21 PM ^
Dantonio took over a team that was basically a laughing stock.
Harbaugh had one of the most talented teams in the entire country and couldn't beat a shit Iowa team and an OSU team that couldn't throw the ball last season.
Harbaugh has the world of resources around him, Dantonio wins with shit star recruits.
November 19th, 2017 at 9:10 PM ^
Dantonio took over a team that was basically a laughing stock.What was Michigan in 2014?
November 19th, 2017 at 5:22 PM ^
November 19th, 2017 at 3:57 PM ^
Eh as I said above, I do think it's a culmination of prior year let downs + the way that 8-4 is happening. You're lying to yourself if you thought the offense would be this bad. Everyone also thought the defense would have a major drop off, which it hasn't.
Nobody expected to lose to MSU this year. Swap UF for MSU and people would be more mellow purely because losing to MSU > losing to UF.
It's that simple. Beat OSU and I bet you all this angst goes away.
November 19th, 2017 at 4:21 PM ^
November 19th, 2017 at 8:15 PM ^
we lose AND are boring
November 19th, 2017 at 5:00 PM ^
First, as I pointed out in another thread, the notion that "We all fucking predicted 8-4 or 9-3 this year" is revisionist bullshit—a substantial majority of commenters were predicting 10-2 or better.
Second, judging from your own commenting history, you're the last person on MGoBlog who should be going after others who are critical of Harbaugh:
"Michigan 24, MSU 10. Michigan State is not a very good football team. Of course, they will get up for Michigan and I expect the first half to be tight, but MSU is too loose with the football, an inconsisent passing attacks and they have clear problems in their back 4. I expect Felton Davis to maybe catch a couple long balls, but I don't expect MSU to be able to consistently move the ball against Michigan."
"fuck tim drevno. he is a mediocre OL coach masquerading as a OC. We can go get Don fucking Brown, yet we are stuck with Harbaugh's buddies at OC? Shame on Harbaugh. Go out and get a top notch OC. Go get Jim Bob Cooter"
"get jay harbaugh and tim drevno out of ann arbor. The fumbling issues from our running backs is ridiculous. Our O-line is at the level of a MAC school and we cannot get a push. Our QBs are garbage and cannot read a defense. fuck tim drevno, fuck jay harbaugh, and fuck jim harbaugh if he sticks with his two buddies."
"However, we are not going to blindly follow and agree with every coaching decision. I am not going to applaud a PA pass on 4th and 11 with an atrocious Oline. I am not going to praise calling a draw on 3rd and 4 in a Monsoon against MSU. I am not going to praise the lack of development from the O-Line, when teams with less talent and experience produce superior line play."
"Don't take this personal, but stop being patronizing. The offense is at an anemic level. Michigan's Line play is awful and regardless of experience, should be performing better. People are not being irrational when they see the below-average play calling on offense. Calling PA on 4th and 11 with a shitty O-line is not good."
"Especially in the second half, it was clear that these players threw in the towel and looked lost and stunned. I agree Don Brown did not put them in a good position last night, especially McCray. Nevertheless, our safeties played awful last night"
"Yeah dude OSU and Bama fans are so calm when their team loses. It comes with the territory of playing for an elite program. You lose a game you shouldn't, people are going to be upset. By the way, numerous other teams have younger, less talented lines that work better than this O-Line....such as MSU."
"Jim Harbaugh has been credited as a QB whisperer, and yet Speight/O'korn are below average and Peters is playing form behind unable to compete for the job. Therefore, the lack of deep threat and shakey QB play is due to that perhaps.
"This brings me to my biggest gripe about the coaching. The O-Line is garbage and has been for 3 years. Tim Drevno had no OC experience, and yet was brought in because of his reputation as a OL guru. This has not been the case. Teams with less talent and less experience have produced better lines."
"Next, the issue with the running backs is cause for concern. Jay Harbaugh was not a running back. I believe running back is a position in which the coach needs to have played the position. Each of our running backs have fumbled the ball this year and seem more hesistant."
"In addition, the play calling was still subpar last night. The draw play on 3rd down was inexcusable."
November 19th, 2017 at 5:16 PM ^
You didn't have to do em like that.
November 19th, 2017 at 8:16 PM ^
must be a ton of Meth hitting Ann Arbor tonight- back away from the keyboard