Georgia now -8, -8.5, -9
-8
https://www.playnj.com/news/will-nj-sports-bettors-roll-with-alabama/61200/
-8.5, with video at link saying why:
https://betting.gazette.com/video/orange-bowl-preview-georgia-vs-michigan-2
-9
https://www.betonline.ag/sportsbook/football/ncaa/game/489791507
Georgia's run defense vs Michigan run game is at center stage. Georgia's run defense has been very tough all year. The monster in the middle is the significant reason why.
This will definitely be the biggest test of the year for the O Line.
What does Michigan do? Pump it up, and prove them wrong!
December 9th, 2021 at 2:37 AM ^
Georgia might not have a QB
December 9th, 2021 at 4:47 AM ^
Don't they have JT Daniels?
December 9th, 2021 at 9:00 AM ^
JT is a statue compared to Stetson.
December 9th, 2021 at 10:39 PM ^
What does that have to do with them not having a QB?
December 9th, 2021 at 7:47 AM ^
They might not need one. Bama runs more of that OSU style passing spread these days. It is not what UM runs on offense.
December 9th, 2021 at 9:07 AM ^
Alabama RBs ran for 76 yards. Young threw for 421 yards.
December 9th, 2021 at 2:38 AM ^
Think we can throw the ball on Georgia. On the other side of the ball, Georgia won't get much on our defense.
December 9th, 2021 at 3:15 AM ^
I actually think Georgia’s offense is getting underrated this week due to the Bama performance. Some of the national media is suddenly acting like they’re Iowa and that they are certainly not. They’re going to move the ball on us. They’re not OSU good, but they probably have the best pass catching TE in the country and for as much flack as their QB is currently getting, he can play. And he can run some which is never something Michigan fans like to hear.
Most of the teams we’ve played have had stretches of moving the ball against us. Even Iowa. Bend but don’t break has ultimately worked out to win the B1G, but in Georgia we’re probably talking about the 2nd best offense we’ve played all year and unfortunately they don’t have Ohio State’s defense on the other side of the ball. It’s cliche, but red zone offense and defense is going to be insanely important this game.
December 9th, 2021 at 8:35 AM ^
Their offense has better fancy stats than ours and Stetson Bennett is basically Cade. If you like McNamara and think he can lead success against the Georgia defense their offense is going to have success against our defense. Just like osu it will be about forcing field goals.
December 9th, 2021 at 9:43 AM ^
He’s more like Cade plus wheels. He can make a play (or several) with his legs. Makes red zone D challenges much tougher.
December 9th, 2021 at 8:42 AM ^
Their TE is a dangerman and a huge challenge.
December 9th, 2021 at 10:49 AM ^
His name is Brock Bowers. That feels like it's cheating. Nobody can stop that kind of name.
December 9th, 2021 at 10:21 AM ^
GA has consistently been worse than UM in Red Zone O all year and still are. They've improved as the year has worn on (as we have) but it's been a struggle for them. Old & overblown narrative aside, UM is a top 5 Red Zone offense. GA is top-10. Both are not impressive on the season converting TDs but both got much better. And in RZ scoring % and % of available points they're both top-10 and UM is top-5.
December 9th, 2021 at 11:24 AM ^
I saw this Red Zone issue as well. They appear to have mostly either big play TD scoring or FGA's.
December 9th, 2021 at 1:35 PM ^
Michigan has climbed this wall of worry all year.
Michigan is 11-2 this year ATS, number one in the nation. Georgia is 8-5
I thought everyone would have learned their lesson after OSU. Apparently not.
I would have thought the lesson would have been reinforced after Iowa was handed their worst loss in Ferentz's tenure (1999) . It wasn't
It's like we are looking for reasons to show that we are inferior. We're not.
Let the stupid allow the spread to keep widening. I am hoping for the moneyline to blow out as well.
December 9th, 2021 at 5:30 AM ^
Their rushing defense compares to Wisconsin...just a notch below.
Their passing defense compares to Washington...just a notch below.
That's what makes them so good. They don't have a glaring hole like those other programs do.
Offensively they rank higher than we do in scoring offense, we run the ball a little better than them...they pass the ball better than we do.
In some ways it's going to be like playing the best version of ourselves.
Remember, they were up 10-0 on Bama and then Georgia started turning the ball over. That's an emotional game where "uh oh...not again...here they come, again" can set in really quickly. I don't believe they respect Michigan the same. In a similar situation I think it's "flush it, they got lucky...we'll get them on the next one, so we spotted them a fluke turnover."
That type of mindset can actually help, it's when arrogance keep confidence.
For Michigan to win, Michigan flat out has to play the best game of the year and beat them in all 3 phases. There is no clear weakness like with some of the other teams.
For Michigan to win, it feels to me like Cade and possibly JJ have to play the game of their lives. I mean look at the game Bryce Young had to have, so much that it's going to win him a Heisman.
12/23 for 184, 1 TD/1 INT isn't going to cut it.
You're going to need MSU Cade mixed with Washington, Nebraska, OSU, Iowa Haskins/Corum.
I actually think Blake Corum might be the key to winning the game. Blake, TDs over FGs, and the Michigan defense.
A Michigan win feels like 34-31. Actually feels like it go to OT. I hope we practice 2 pt conversions because we've been horrible stopping them this season.
I'll go 37-34 (2 OT), Michigan wins.
December 9th, 2021 at 9:42 AM ^
I'd say their biggest weakness is their passing defense. It's impossible to overstate how overmatched they were against Bama. Georgia should in no way have yielded over 400 passing yards at roughly 10 yards per attempt(!) or 16+ per completion. Their defense, it pains me to say it, reminds me of us under Don Brown. We looked like world beaters early in the season, press giving us a lot of love, then Penn State and OSU run the score up on us on the road. If Georgia were matched up against an Air Raid team from the Big12 they'd get obliterated. Gattis should be able to scheme for them. Flea flicker!
December 9th, 2021 at 11:35 AM ^
I like the thoughtful comparisons. This is a checklist of things to evaluate in the next few weeks and even during the first half.
I would love for Gattis to find a crack in the Georgia run defense and if it has to be the best passing day of the year for Michigan then so be it.
December 9th, 2021 at 6:19 AM ^
I think this is going to be Coach Gattis' game to win or lose. He needs to keep working that magic that earned him the Broyles.
December 9th, 2021 at 3:03 AM ^
We weren’t really able to run it against the dominant Wisconsin run defense, but we were still able to move the ball enough.
We weren’t really able to run it against Iowa outside of one big Corum cut, but we were still able to move the ball enough.
Georgia is hands down the most talented defense we’ll see this year. They probably have more 5*s on their defense than the Pac 12 has in their entire conference. And until last week, they had been historically good. But as Bama proved last week and as college football has proven in recent years, even the great defenses are vulnerable.
We are not Bama offensively, but this offense has grown this season to the point where I’m confident they’re going to have series in this game where they’ll be able to move the ball. There’s likely to be stretches where it doesn’t look pretty and consecutive 3-and-outs will happen, but I feel like there’s a lot of confidence right now when we get into the scoring zone. And that’s probably going to be the ball game right there - whether or not we are able to capitalize in the red zone like we have the past month.
I really wish this game was this weekend though to keep the momentum going. A month off is a long time.
December 9th, 2021 at 9:20 AM ^
To your last point, I’ll take the month off. We need some dudes like Corum to be fully healthy. Also it seemed like Bama badly out coached Kirby and Co in their game, and that may be our best chance to win. Need an incredible game called in all phases to get an advantage.
in particular on offense if we can find a way to scheme the run game into working I think it could break Georgia. Teams like this are built to be good on talent alone and tend to be less adaptable. Get them out of their comfort zone and it could like OSU
December 9th, 2021 at 10:03 AM ^
Agreed on the time off. Need to be full healthy, and also need the time to scout Georgia and prepare for them. We saw how a season full of scouting and practicing for Ohio State paid off. Need the same for Georgia..
December 9th, 2021 at 2:24 PM ^
Corum was covering punts against Iowa so I'd be shocked if he wasn't already 100% going into that game. Plus, his workload didn't seem to be restricted at all.
December 9th, 2021 at 11:58 AM ^
This is dead-on. We don't have to pound it up the middle to win and "move the ball enough." That's the huge difference between this years' offense and previous iterations - there are a lot of ways Gattis and co. can hurt you, and they will adjust as necessary.
To me it'll be about attacking the edges with our run game and screens, which should open up the middle of the field a bit for intermediate throws and inside runs.
December 9th, 2021 at 3:50 AM ^
This seems like a lot. Fine with Michigan being underdogs. I think they have a solid chance of beating Georgia.
December 9th, 2021 at 4:25 AM ^
Stick Aidan in at fullback, and put Bubba on his butt.
December 9th, 2021 at 5:44 AM ^
-9 -105 is closer to 8.5 as the -105 means you pay $105 to win $100 instead of the normal $110.
Mostly 7.5 and 8 on Vegas Insider.
December 9th, 2021 at 8:42 AM ^
FWIW Bovada opened at Michigan +7.5 and now sits at +8
I will smash the shit out of Michigan +9 if it gets there.
December 9th, 2021 at 9:32 AM ^
I'm ready to hammer us at +8.5. Didn't expect it to go this direction the way public money follows Michigan.
December 9th, 2021 at 5:59 AM ^
a lot like the line vs. ohio, with some similar themes: they're loaded with 5*'s, good D but missed assignments; offense a little less functional than ohio but still very dangerous, etc.
but one thing: we actually scheme and prepare exceptionally well. even in our losses v ohio these past years we have had some excellent play calling, its just that don brown went cover zero and we couldn't play zone worth crud when needed. that has changed. i think smart has a talent gap, much like ohio usually enjoys, but lacks the scheming and play calling abilities we have. i like our preparation more than theirs and that makes this line way, way too high.
if i was a betting man i'd take michigan and the points. its ohio minus the rivalry and a substantial chance exists for a similar outcome.
go blue. looking forward to a NYE game and, hopefully, a celebration.
December 9th, 2021 at 8:35 AM ^
Agreed. Georgia's achilles heel continues to be Coach Smart-he's the SEC version of James Franklin. That does not guarantee a win for us but it helps-could be the difference-maker.
I am quite confident that our defense will be able to contain Georgia-keep them under 30. I think Coach Macdonald and company will find a way to limit their excellent TEs.
For us, offensively I am sure that Georgia is going to force Cade to win the game for us. Cade is going to have to pull the ball and keep more than he has all season-because Georgia, otherwise, has the horses to clamp down on the running game. Cade has got to make the correct, courageous reads and keep moving the chains.
Then there is the Michigan passing game. I hope Georgia believes they can simply out-athlete us...and I think this is what they will do-as Coach Smart morphs into Coach Dumb. But here, again, Cade is going to HAVE to make the throws-he dare not leave TDs on the field.
I don't know exactly why but I am uncharacteristically confident of Michigan's chances here. I think it is that, personnel wise, Michigan matches up well, even favorably, with Georgia. And, Michigan actually has the coaching advantage. Plus, Michigan has a sizeable psychological advantage going into this contest. Here, SEC arrogance is worse, more detrimental, than Michigan arrogance.
Can't wait.
December 9th, 2021 at 9:16 AM ^
There are so many similarities in this game between the two teams. Coaching being another one. I'd argue that Kirby and Harbaugh are pretty similar in that both have struggled getting past their own conference heavyweight, each have 1 conference championship to-date, and are viewed nationally as good, but not quite elite coaches. Only way to beat that narrative is to win it all.
December 9th, 2021 at 9:50 AM ^
hello leggo, welcome. opposing fans are pretty much universally appreciated as long as they don't troll, and you don't look like you're trolling.
i would differ on your analysis of your coach v. harbaugh. smart/UGA is one of 4 programs with out of this world recruiting. he has every bit of talented of a team as bama. he has lost because he/his coaches don't scheme as well with that tremendous talent. harbaugh has not enjoyed that talent advantage vs. ohio and has lost some very close games. not this year though, which is nice.
what is your take on the game and the point spread?
December 9th, 2021 at 12:09 PM ^
Thanks for the welcome. My wife went to Michigan, so have always had Michigan as my distant, distant,....distant 2nd school. I graduated from UGA in '98.
Anyway, I think the game should be a pickem. I know that's really boring of me to not pick a favorite, but am shocked by the Vegas spread. The Bama loss was a huge shot to the confidence of our fan base. We felt like this was our year and everything was lining-up to finally win a National Championship. Most UGA fans are pretty negative right now and not sure who we really are as a team.
By game time and after our wounds have healed a bit, I will probably expect UGA to win a real close game.
Ojabo and Hutch are really scary for us. Our OT's are the strength of our OL. Salyer and McClendon are both pretty solid, but keeping a clean pocket will be a challenge. Will Anderson had some success with negative plays in the 2nd Half, after it became obvious that we'd abandoned the run. We'll need to keep it a 1-score game at a minimum to be able to stick to our normal game plan.
Regarding Kirby v. Harbaugh, without a doubt Kirby has had more talent to work with over the past few years. I would say that recruiting and roster management is the biggest part of the job in college football and Kirby is as good as anybody at it. That shouldn't be a negative against him, but it is the common attack by opposing fans.
Saban has owned us. He's the best ever. We're susceptible to getting gashed by elite O's and QB's (Tua, Trask, Mac Jones, Burrow, and now Bryce Young). Not sure if Kirby will ever get past Saban and put a UGA offense on the field that can out-gun those elite O's we've lost to in the past few years.
December 9th, 2021 at 11:56 AM ^
Is this serious? Harbaugh has gone to Super bowl. Please, Smart isnt 1/2 the coach Harbaugh is. Tell you what, give us your bagmen and 5 stars - Harbaugh would be hosing Saban in no time.
December 9th, 2021 at 9:22 AM ^
So you're saying we'll have a decided schematic advantage?
December 9th, 2021 at 6:00 AM ^
Bring on the disrespect and the doubters. Been working for us all year
December 9th, 2021 at 6:08 AM ^
Michigan is going to have their hands full. One benefit will be that ALL the pressure is on Georgia, they can't go 12-0 and then lose 2 straight. Michigan isn't even supposed to be here, I think Harbaugh and the team are completely comfortable playing the underdog role here that nobody thinks can win. Should be a hell of a game, I expect Michigan to be sharp and focused, tons of seniors and great leadership on the team. These guys are going to bring their A game, we will find out if that is enough. Can't wait.
December 9th, 2021 at 6:08 AM ^
Michigan is going to have their hands full. One benefit will be that ALL the pressure is on Georgia, they can't go 12-0 and then lose 2 straight. Michigan isn't even supposed to be here, I think Harbaugh and the team are completely comfortable playing the underdog role here that nobody thinks can win. Should be a hell of a game, I expect Michigan to be sharp and focused, tons of seniors and great leadership on the team. These guys are going to bring their A game, we will find out if that is enough. Can't wait.
December 9th, 2021 at 6:15 AM ^
All signs pointing to the game being decided in the red zone. That’s where you start to see some things that point in UM’s favor.
Kick extra points.
Force field goals.
Head back to Indy.
December 9th, 2021 at 12:14 PM ^
And M has Moody
December 9th, 2021 at 6:20 AM ^
First off “the big man in the middle” did not impress me against Bama. I’ll admit I haven’t watched Georgia one time this season, until Bama. Davis was only good for a couple plays and then was on the sideline, he’s s a mountain to move but was gassed by the half. If we call lots of misdirection and can dink and dunk and the go over the top then there’s a chance. I’m not worried about our secondary, I mean we contained 3 receivers who will play many Sundays with great success. I am concerned about stopping their run game. If they’re manballing is the 1st few series then I’ll be concerned. So many ways for this game to unfold.
December 9th, 2021 at 7:36 AM ^
OSU"s passing game was pretty successful against UM. Stroud completed 70% of his passes for 394 yrs. OSU's receivers had 11 catches for 127 yds, 10 catches for 119 yds and 7 catches for 88 yds. Michigan's success in the passing game was not giving up the back breaking 50, 60 70 yd touchdown pass. Bend but don't break.
The big difference was UM neutralizing OSU"s running game. Taking Stroud out of the stats, OSU had 24 carries for 94 yrs. Well below their 7+ yds per carry coming into the game.
December 9th, 2021 at 8:11 AM ^
OSU's passing game felt pretty successful because they converted tough 3rd and 4th downs and their WRs made contested catches. I have no idea if Georgia has that kind of receivers. It seems one WR coming back from injury might have it. They will have to make tough catches.
December 9th, 2021 at 10:16 AM ^
394 yrs. what a short passing life span!!!
December 9th, 2021 at 11:40 AM ^
They scored 27 points. Bottom line.
December 9th, 2021 at 8:31 AM ^
Davis does this for long stretches in a lot of games. Wyatt is a better DT right now Davis has the higher ceiling but he was moved fairly easily for a dude his size after a few plays, he’s super slow to get off the ball as well. That being said when he is on he’s unstoppable. Their defense is good but doesn’t scare me I think a balanced Michigan team will keep them on their heels. The key is just like Ohio State start fast so you can stay balanced.
December 9th, 2021 at 11:53 AM ^
If we can score early, then there is a chance that doubt starts to creep into the Georgia team as the pressure mounts on them.