Gambling odds on Michigan starting QB week 1
As a gambling degenerate, I always have my eye on a number of different offshore sites looking at new postings.
Bookmaker.eu just posted some "College Football Special Props", and they have odds on Week 1 starting QBs for a number of teams including Michigan. I found the odds MUCH closer than I would have anticipated.
Michigan Starting QB Week 1
Speight -105 (51.22% implied probability, meaning you need to bet $105 to win $100)
Peters +110 (47.62% implied probability, meaning a $100 bet wins $110)
Almost a coinflip. This does not mean they have inside info or anything, and this isn't a Vegas prop it's only offshore, but setting close to even was quite surprising to me. I would have had Speight closer to 60-70%.
So do you actually get your money if you win these bets?
Asking for a friend.
on the existence of this "friend".
Yes.
bookmaker (along with 5dimes) has an excellent reputation for us-facing, offshore sportsbooks.
yes.
just don't expect to be able to bet very much on a prop like that.
Yes, tell your good friend ;), Bookmaker is one of the most trusted offshore books in the world.
https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-sites/bookmaker/
I use TopBet which I have gotten paid out on fine ,but I'm beginning to think other sites can offer better odds consistently . Do you think it's worth making the switch ?
I don't have any personal experience at TopBet but that Sportsbookreview site is great for finding trustworthy books. I personally have accounts at 5dimes, Betonline, Sportsbook.ag, and Heritage along with bookmaker. The only one that's a little shady is sportsbook.ag (slow payouts).
My best advice, if you really want to sports bet properly, you should have 3-5 different books so you can take advantage of the best lines. Using just one handicaps you.
That makes sense and may have to sign up for sportbook
Is this stuff legal?
Our prisons are overflowing with millions of offshore gamblers.
They're not gonna saw your hands off. Odds are they'll put you in a white collar minimum security resort. You know they have conjugal visits there?
Do they find someone to have sex with you?
I know what Hugh Freeze's new job could be.
Hmmm. Not that I know of. Ya know, minimum security prison is no picnic. I have a client in there right now. He says the trick is: Kick someone's ass the first day, or become someone's bitch. Then everything will be all right.
I needed someone to finish the scene. Thank you.
It's illegal similar to the way downloading free music is illegal. Millions of people are doing it, it's basically ignored by the government.
If you're not betting tens or hundreds of thousands (then trying to withdraw/launder that money back to the US) you have nothing to worry about.
Wiltons injury report probably bumps the odds up
Did I miss some breaking news or do you mean the injury news that trickled out after last season?
The end of season stuff
You're still weighing the Speight risk of injury vs the Peters risk, and the Peters risk is well above 0% because football.
Weird to have a line so close. Let's all freak out assuming this questionable online sportsbook has inside injury information.
It's not the sportsbook's line that is weird, it's the way people are freaking out about Speight (injury and spring performance) that causes the line to be where it is.
It's a weird opening line for a prop bet; nobody on this here board is trying to bet Peters with those odds and I can't imagine we're that much different than the Michigan betting public.
I was joking about them having inside info; seems more likely they're putting out a prop like this (one designed to produce big action regardless of balance) because they're just going to stop paying people by then.
I would have him closer to 90%. May actually gamble on this.
I was also thinking 90%, and that this seemed like a really good way to double my money
I have reliable inside information that Peters is going to be the starter. I put pictures of Speight and Peters on the floor, and my dog put his paw on Peters' picture.
Can confirm. My groundhog came out of hibernation early, which can only mean that Peters will start.
Not sure why you think having pets pick the winner of a completely unrelated sports bet would be a good idea.
-That Guy
I didnt say that, you did..
Counterstrike source or it didnt happen
At this point last offseason I would have given O'Korn similar odds.
Is this real
Yes, the link takes you right to the page. Week 1 starting QB odds are offered for multiple teams. Website is a trusted book.
Confused why the odds are so close is all
A lot of Michigan fans just watched the Spring Game, and our fanbase in particular is notorious for clamoring for the next guy to start.
I know Peters is going to be great, but he's going to have to have an outrageous fall camp to unseat Speight for game 1. Wouldn't surprise me if he got snaps in that game, but I'd be shocked if he took the first snap (and admittedly enthused because Peters beating out Speight means he's probably about to give us 2-3 years of incredible QB play)
I'd put Speight at 85 percent chance to start because it's Florida and Peters hasn't played. However, if Speight throws an OSU type interception or is ineffective like the Iowa or FSU game, I think you see a quick hook. Practice reports can be faulty see JOK but Peters looked great in both the spring game and Rome game.
but I don't see a quick hook with a bad pick. Harbaugh is pretty loyal to his QB. But, a bad game with a bunch of bad decisions could get Peters the nod the following week
Considering that Speight threw an interception on literally his first pass last season and didn't even get the hook with a broken collarbone (collarbone, right??)...
I think it's fair to say that Speight will not be getting a quick hook at any point this season.
It wasn't a crippling interception in the Hawaii game because it was around midfield and it was Hawaii so Harbaugh knew we would win anyways. Against Florida, we're going to need all the help we can get.
pull Speight after even a bad pick-six. He just doesn't do that to QBs. He's picking the guy that gives them the best chance to win based on basically two years worth of spring and fall camps, plus last season in which both guys were in the program. One pick isn't going to change his view of who gives us the best chance.
It would take something disastrous - like three picks in the first half - for the starter to get yanked.
Listen, I'll admit I was on Team O'Korn last year...until we saw O'Korn in extended action. I suspect that you are on Team Peters, and looking for a reason that he'll play. That's fine, but it's still Backup QB Syndrome.
Harbaugh obviously doesn't believe that yanking a QB makes the team better. He obviously believes that Speight is the guy. People on this board who have a track record of being very right have pegged Speight as the guy.
As bright as the future looks under Peters, I think the only way he sees the field against Florida is a) blowout or b) injury.
Harbaugh has in Peters. I have the feeling he'd be happier with him under center in 2017 than O'Korn in 2016. Also whether Wilton makes the same mistakes in a game that he makes in practice should factor in. I think after one bad game qualifies as a quick hook. I can't see it ever happening for one bad play.
I think this is a fair point, and something I was thinking about as I read other comments. But, I think a lot of us thought that O'Korn was going to be the guy last year, maybe somewhat similar to people who are on the Peters train already. IMO, if Harbaugh picks Speight, that's good enough for me. I think Peters has a good future; if that happens sooner rather than later, again, I believe in Harbaugh's evaulation way more than my own or other fans
While there were reports of O'Korn playing so well in fall camp last year, Wilton started. The way the season played out is that Wilton was clearly ahead of O'Korn and Harbaugh only went to O'Korn in an emergencey start (Indiana).
Here is the speculation, Peters has shown some results (be that in scrimmages only to date). It comes down to Harbaugh's level of confidence in Peters. In SF, he had Alex Smith playing well, but once Alex got hurt (with eh playing results), Colin came in and SF took off.
So the million dollor question is, will this fall be more like last year (Wilton is the clear starter and O'Korn is used in emergencey only) OR will it be like in SF (Wilton is the start, but he better not get hurt or play poorly because Peters is ready to step in)?
I am not stating either way, just pointing out there are different scenarios in JH past where he has gone both ways. Bottomline, JH will play whoever he feels gives the team the best chance to win.
I think if it's just a pick, then Harbaugh will stick with him but a crushing pick 6 from your goaline will put Peters in the game. The goal is to win the game and not just to be nice to your qb.
Agree to disagree. Harbaugh is loyal to his QB, maybe even too much. Speight looked like hot garbage in the second half versus Iowa, was injured part way through, and didn't get the hook. His last drive ended in an interception driving towards the endzone. I don't expect that we will see Peters versus Florida unless something drastically changes in fall camp, Speight gets injured between now and then, or Speight throws three passes for three interceptions on his first three passes versus Florida.
Yeah but we saw what we had behind Speight a week later and it wasn't good. I doubt Harbaugh is going to let any qb stink it up if he has another viable option on the bench. He'd be stupid to.
Harbaugh will start the best QB. He will devise a Fall practice that will show him and the rest of the team who that QB is. There will be no controversy. The best QB starts. Harbaugh is all about this. Professional teams lag QBs for contracts and money. Not so much college. The touches are too few and far to breed loyalty. Loyalty is for losers.
That said... Freshmen make silly mistakes. Florida is too big a game with too fresh a taint to risk it IMO. If Peters starts... we are going to roll Florida... ie. Harbaugh won't do that unless he can deliver.
You say the Florida game has "too fresh a taint". There's no such thing as too fresh a taint - hygiene matters!