Future of the basketball program
I know people hate looking ahead especially this early in the season, but we all look at the success Juwan has had recruiting and get excited for the future. I got to thinking this years team vs next years team will be an interesting contrast. This years team is upper class men heavy, whereas next year we will likely be more talented but with far less experience.
The big question will be if Franz and/or Dicksinson leaves. I think even given his early shooting struggles, Franz will likely test the pro waters. Dickinson is already 20 but I don’t think he’s a one and done. At least I hope not. Let’s say Franz goes, that means we replace all 5 starters plus the 6th man in Chaundee. But next years starting lineup could look like:
Jackson
Bufkin
Houstan
Diabate
Dickinson
Very young team, but certainly more talented than we have had in a long time. Again, I apologize to the people who hate the “look ahead” topics, I just think it could set up to be an intriguing team that could be boom or bust.
December 1st, 2020 at 9:26 AM ^
Considering the success Juwan has had at recruiting, players leaving early should be much less of an issue than it has been in the past.
Oakland game was an eye opener for the team, but it was the 2nd game in a strange, strange year. I'm betting this team continues to develop and if the season is able to proceed, they're making noise as the year goes on. There's a lot of talent on that roster, the ceiling is pretty high.
December 1st, 2020 at 1:42 PM ^
Kentucky teams have had similar early season struggles with how they recruit as well. Part of our new normal in Basketball.
December 1st, 2020 at 1:50 PM ^
Considering the talent gap they've had over every other team, they've also struggled to win it all in March. Their only championship in the one done era was led by veterans to compliment all the NBA talent on their roster. The yearly turnover without any nucleus will win lots of games, but hasn't really panned out in championships. Duke seems to be doing a better job balancing this. I think Howard is following more of the Duke mold than Kentucky.
December 1st, 2020 at 3:38 PM ^
This is a good point. Calipari's only title despite all the talent is when he had a generational player in Anthony Davis.
I always say that I'd rather have well-coached third year 4-stars than freshman 5-stars. This is the Villanova, Gonzaga, and UVa recipe. I don't know that it's necessarily better, that's arguable in terms of success, but it's a lot less frustrating to watch IMO and I like getting to know players and to watch them progress.
And even though it seems like Coach K has struck a better balance than Calipari, he hasn't been to the final four since 2015 despite having guys like Zion and Jayson Tatum. In fact, that's their only final four in the last 10 years. Thats their only one since a classic Coach K team won it with Jr's and Sr's that weren't NBA players (Scheyer, Singler, Nolan, Zoubek, etc.)
December 1st, 2020 at 3:13 PM ^
But Michigan isn't a young team right now. It's very experienced by college basketball standards (five of the top seven players are 4th or 5th year guys).
This team is nothing like Kentucky teams. Next years team will be, though. That should be the new normal.
December 1st, 2020 at 9:29 AM ^
This is a question that I’ve had for a while:
Won’t Chaundee and Smith be able to stay an extra year since this is supposed to be a blank eligibility season?
December 1st, 2020 at 9:42 AM ^
Yes, they are eligible to stay another year, as are Brooks and Davis. All of them could be fairly high-level overseas players, with Brown having an outside shot at the NBA.
They might want to stay, but the chances are high that they’d want to move on to the next phases of professional life, basketball-related or otherwise.
December 1st, 2020 at 9:50 AM ^
So, a question along these lines. Does anyone know if the University is required to honor a senior's scholarship next year if the player wants to stay?
December 1st, 2020 at 10:44 AM ^
Seniors will not count against scholarship limit so I don't see why the University would say not to them sticking around
Edit: apparently this only applies to Fall sports as of now.
December 1st, 2020 at 9:43 AM ^
Yes but would Howard ask them to come back? I would think no for Smith because of Zeb and Collins. Chaundee maybe?
December 1st, 2020 at 10:59 AM ^
Yes, theoretically Smith, Davis, Brown, Wagner, and Livers could all come back if they wanted to
December 1st, 2020 at 3:44 PM ^
Is it their choice or do they have to be offered a fifth year like anyone else with a fifth year of eligibility? I know the rule is that they get another year of NCAA eligibility but I would think they also need a school to offer them a scholarship.
December 1st, 2020 at 11:37 AM ^
IIRC the "blank eligibility season" only applies to fall sports, perhaps only to football. Could be wrong though.
December 1st, 2020 at 9:30 AM ^
I'm still at a wait and see point. Howard can recruit. If Houstan and Diabate make it to campus it will be a very talented team. Our team struggled down the stretch last season and the Big Ten is a grind with ultra competitive coaches who will figure out how to beat you from year to year if you're not constantly improving as a coach. Howard still has to prove he can compete with them on the court, 9th place last year wasn't very good to me.
December 1st, 2020 at 9:32 AM ^
I also see very talented all Frosh teams don't always perform as good as you would expect....I see you Kentucky.
December 1st, 2020 at 9:42 AM ^
We had the toughest schedule in the country. There's a reason we were projected to be a 6 seed despite a 19-12 record. And that despite losing 3 starters from the year before. He was able to get victories over Roy, Few, Izzo, Painter in his very first season as a head coach. I think Juwan has proven himself to be a great recruiter and a good coach with the potential to be a great coach.
December 1st, 2020 at 3:50 PM ^
Eh, it could have been a Wile E. Coyote year. That was a very experienced and well-coached roster he inherited with senior leaders in Simpson and Teske, juniors Brooks and Livers and Davis, etc.
I don't think somewhat maintaining the excellence that senior class had established is yet proof that he's a good coach. I think it only proved that he's not a terrible college coach. The wide range of possibilities beyond that are still in play.
December 1st, 2020 at 10:53 AM ^
I disagree with your assessment that the team struggled down the stretch, as they finished the season winning 6 of their last 9. They struggled in the month of January when Livers was out with his injuries, going 3-6 in conference play. Losing your top scorer hurts, and it would have been very difficult to be better than a 0.500 team in a very tough conference without one of your key pieces for a large chuck of the season. 7-4 in conference play with healthy Livers and 3-6 without him. I would assume that they would have been much better than 9th place had they not lost their top scorer for nearly half of the conference games.
December 1st, 2020 at 9:30 AM ^
Technically, any of the players including Brown, Smith, or Livers could come back as this year doesn't count. Now we don't really have any scholarship openings right now, but...
December 1st, 2020 at 9:31 AM ^
Unless Zeb really gets it together this season, I really think Collins is going to come and start from day 1 at PG. His playmaking is something we are missing currently and will very much need next year.
December 1st, 2020 at 9:32 AM ^
Johns can stay. Today, Franz should not leave. He will and be a mistake. Can't everyone stay if they want?
December 1st, 2020 at 9:39 AM ^
Next year may be a very good time to benefit from the continuity afforded by some guys taking advantage to stay the extra year.
December 1st, 2020 at 9:44 AM ^
I don't see a situation where Dickinson leaves after this year. He looks promising, but his style of play (that I have seen so far) is not in high demand in the NBA currently. Unless he starts hitting from the outside, we will likely see him back for one more year at least. We also have yet to see him against guys similar in size to give him more of a challenge. Early returns seem promising.
December 1st, 2020 at 12:41 PM ^
Yes, Hunter Dickinson is a great recruit for a college team in that his skills & profile could be All-B1G level (starting next year) for the college game, but don't lend themselves to the modern NBA (so I can't see him leaving until the end of his junior year, at the earliest).
Certainly, with practice, he can develop a catch & shoot three, but that will take at least a couple years (and, like w Teske, may never really take hold) and become a more athletic defender as he matures. But Dickinson's size will be tough for any college team to handle right now; 7-footers are rare, especially those with good hands, that can pass, and can finish at the rim.
December 1st, 2020 at 9:59 AM ^
Not sure Franz is carrying his new weight well -- looks like he has lost a step and is not as slithery as last year.
December 1st, 2020 at 10:16 AM ^
If we are projecting this early I think Franz stays. My lineup is:
Collins
Bufkin
Wagner
Johns
Dickinson
If Franz leaves insert Williams.
December 1st, 2020 at 10:21 AM ^
I think it will be difficult to keep both Moussa and Houstan from starting.
December 1st, 2020 at 10:32 AM ^
To start the season I don’t see us going with 4 freshman. Maybe as the season progresses. But this is why I’m glad I don’t have to make the decision! Also very tough to determine who will be back given the attrition rates of college basketball lately. Either way they will be a lot of fun to watch.
December 1st, 2020 at 10:21 AM ^
Smith is currently trying out for next year's Michigan team.
December 1st, 2020 at 10:21 AM ^
Howard really has exceeded my expectations as a coach and recruiter. It's always a crapshoot if former NBA players are good on the recruiting trail beyond initial name recognition (for example, Patrick Ewing at Georgetown hasn't set the world on fire despite being a HoF player) and I wasn't sure how he'd be schematically during games. But he's been fantastic as a recruiter and while his teams haven't looked quite as good as vintage Beilein, his in-game decisions have largely been solid and point to a really heady coach who'll only improve the more he runs a team.
December 1st, 2020 at 10:44 AM ^
As far as departing seniors, I don't see Davis really being offered a 6th season. Livers would be welcomed with open arms, but I don't see him staying under any circumstance. If he wants to play in the NBA, this year will be his chance. If he is content playing overseas, then maybe he comes back but I'd put Livers coming back at <5%. Brooks would have a role but possibly a reduced one; same with Smith. Brown I think has the greatest chance of coming back next year.
As far as open scholarships, Johns I think stays as he could be considered a Jr still. Nunez may look elsewhere as he is already buried behind this years' freshmen; he will definitely be below next years.
December 1st, 2020 at 11:05 AM ^
I don't really see Smith being offered to come back next year. I don't think he'd play much at all and he won't want that anyway. I do agree on Brooks though. He's the MAAR type that is very valuable to have. Good defender, decent scorer, can play 40 minutes and never get tired. I would want Brown back but again, his minutes are likely to be reduced significantly next year so it may be up to him.
Nunez is for sure gone. He's going to graduate and there's no way he's offered a spot. He can grad transfer with a UM degree and actually get playing time somewhere else.
I think we're at 12 right now (11 if you don't count Howard, insiders have suggested he could still be a walkon). Davis, Nunez, and IMO Smith are gone. Livers and Franz are going to go pro. That leaves 6 scholarships for the 6 incoming freshman. Insiders have said the door open for another super recruit is being left open.
A lot can happen but it's fun speculating about this stuff.
December 1st, 2020 at 11:15 AM ^
I thought that seniors coming back next year for that extra season didn't count against the scholarship cap. Does that only apply to football?
December 1st, 2020 at 11:45 AM ^
I honestly hadn't thought or read anything about that but I just googled it and found this -
Here is an example of how this could play out for a college team:
- A fully funded NCAA D1 FBS football team has a maximum of 85 scholarships. All D1 FBS scholarships are full-rides.
- For the 2020-21 season, the team has 25 seniors on scholarship. Let’s say all of these seniors get an extra year of eligibility.
- For the 2021-22 school year, this program could bring back up to 25 seniors and all of those seniors are eligible to keep their scholarships.
- If the school is able to fund the maximum number of scholarships it can for the 2021-22 school year, they could have 110 athletes on scholarships. That means 25 returning seniors and 85 others.
The determining factor is whether or not a school can afford to give scholarships over the maximum.
This is for football obviously but since the eligibility rules were extended to winter sport athletes, I would think the above would apply to basketball as well. So in theory, scholarships don't really matter next year for the seniors (Livers, Brooks, Brown, Davis, and Smith). As long as UM decides to pay the money, all of these guys could come back.
December 1st, 2020 at 10:58 AM ^
Looking at next year’s roster, it is obvious why Howard is giving this year’s underclassmen a lot of playing time.
December 1st, 2020 at 10:59 AM ^
Tell ya what, Franz leaving early seemed to be a given after last year.
He better get his shit together in a hurry if he wants to attract NBA attention.
December 1st, 2020 at 1:57 PM ^
If Franz doesn't start playing well he should be benched. He may even not get drafted at this point.
December 1st, 2020 at 11:12 AM ^
Someday, people are going to learn that experience matters in college athletics more than pure talent.
This year: Indiana and Northwestern were in the top 10 in returning production. Lo and behold, they have great seasons in football.
What happened in 2013 was an aberration for Michigan Basketball *and* most college teams (including Duke or Kentucky). It helped that we had a National Player of the Year in Trey Burke as a sophomore.
Look at all the stacked teams that Duke has had in this decade. Only 1 team made the Final Four (2015) and that team had a senior Quinn Cook to lead them in key moments.
I must've made this post well over 10 times on this board so what's another time.
Go and look at the composition of ALL Final Four teams since OAD was implemented in 2004. You'll notice that the overwhelming majority have upperclassmen in 3/5 starters. (I made a spreadsheet of this at one point. I wonder if I still have it somewhere like my google drive. It was something like 49/60 teams (80+%) had at least 3 upperclassmen in starting 5.)
That's what made Michigan 2013 so special:
Burke - sophomore
Stauskas - freshman
Hardaway Jr. - junior
GR3 - freshman
McGary - freshman
Bench: Jon Horford - redshirt sophomore, Jordan Morgan - redshirt junior, Caris LeVert - freshman, Spike Albrecht - freshman
In retrospect, that team had NBA talent so it was a few plays shy of a 2nd consecutive Final Four even after Burke and Hardway left for the NBA.
My point: talent is nice. But *experienced* talent is far and away better in college athletics. That experience shows up in key moments of big games.
December 1st, 2020 at 11:40 AM ^
Definitely agree with the overall point of your argument but I think you're underselling a few of the OAD teams.
Kentucky: At the turn of the decade they were a shoe-in for the final 4, took home a championship as well and were undefeated in '15 until losing a tight semi to Wisconsin (who was a very experienced team).
Duke: National title team in '15 was based primarily on freshmen (Okafor, Jones, Winslow) and have had several other successful teams built mostly on the backs of other freshmen.
Virtually every other team has been built with more experienced rosters though (Villanova and UNC specifically), so your point stands. The exception being if you are able to recruit like Kentucky and Duke, which I think most of us would agree is not possible here at UM.
December 1st, 2020 at 11:33 AM ^
Once again next year what we'll see is a largely new lineup due to the turnover which has become a constant it seems for Michigan. Gone are the days when rosters were pretty stable, and guys would stick around for 3-4 years. That means that early season play will be very up and down, with some potential bad losses. But the talent level next year will be very high, which means they'll be fun to watch.
December 1st, 2020 at 12:04 PM ^
This is fun to consider...it is a long way off. I like your starters but I think Collins is going to come in ready to play. What if Hardy or Reid end up joining the good guys???
Juwan is setting Michigan up to be similar to Kentucky-a very high ceiling with a lot of variability. Buckle up-this is not for the faint of heart.
December 1st, 2020 at 12:17 PM ^
What we are looking at starting next year and the years after that is how important it is to land the 35-100 level players that will stay 2-3 years at least. The Houstan's and Diabate's are awesome to have but you also need the Williams, Jackson and Dickinson's of the world as well. They were all between 42-93. Even Chaundee was top 40 talent. I've already gotten myself prepared to not get attached to many of the players going forward in Howard's world of recruiting.
December 1st, 2020 at 1:24 PM ^
I thought Houstan wasn't seen as a 1 year guy?
December 1st, 2020 at 3:00 PM ^
I hope he's not. That would help us tremendously if we can get top 15 talent and keep them 2 or more years.
December 1st, 2020 at 12:53 PM ^
One thing to remember is that no one loses eligibility this year in basketball. So while Livers and Franz will probably go pro, guys like Brooks and Smith that don't have as much NBA potential could elect to take another year of free grad school and come back. We could actually have a nice mix of returning players like Smith, Brooks, and Dickinson to complement the great freshman class.
December 1st, 2020 at 4:45 PM ^
Purdue is blasting Oakland by 43.
December 1st, 2020 at 11:36 PM ^
I think a second year of Dickinson will be huge for a young team.also small sample size ,but johns has looked good! I believe Williams in his second year is going to shine also!