Football Regular Season: Over or Under 9.5 Wins
I saw this discussed in another thread earlier this week, and I saw that the MLive guys talked more about this today. Now, I will not post the link because A) they both took the under and B) I know how much you guys don't really like MLive. Back on topic, though. I feel like the topic needed a little more attention than it got. Plus, the blog has been rather quiet today, so I thought I would spark a little evening conversation.
So the big question is, do you guys think that Michigan will reach the double digit mark for wins this football regular season? Personally, just looking at the schedule, I don't think there should be a doubt that this team should get to 10 wins. As I think about it a little more, though, we have a brand new offensive line, and once again I think we are one injury away on the offensive line from having depth issues... So I thought I would enlist the blog to help with one of the most important and most speculative questions of the season.
I didn't like Funk from the day he was brought in. He's reputation with OLs has been mediocre at best.
I think Hoke was a good hire and Mattison an excellent hire. I like the move to bring in Manning as well, and I think Mallory has done a solid job given what he was handed. I'm much more skeptical about Borges and Funk, and I think Fred Jackson probably needs to retire fairly soon.
Ghost of ferbert
Ghost of poo
Ghost of dew
Ghost of random Ann Arbor street
Under - Miller is green, not a man baller and made mistakes in the spring game. Gardner is excellent but not a perfect fit for Pro Style. The 2012 team was a hail mary from 6-6. I can not say honestly Michigan is flat out better than Northwestern this year. Even Indiana is a threat with a different offensive scheme than anyone else we will be playing (that could be a shoot out.) Lastly and most importantly... QB depth is unproven. DEs are coming for DG this year. His run skills are above average but nowhere near the threat level of Denard - which called for D linemen to protect their lanes before rushing. Everyone is going to be coming to rattle if not outright maim Devin on all passing downs this year. Miller is heady. If he handles Nix then change me to over. Devin's pocket presence can be NFL like. Sometimes opportunity creates a story wrt QB depth (in this case - it would be quite a story.) Maybe I should believe the hype on the talent increase this year. Please make this look stupid. 8 wins.
A hail mary from 6-6? Would an incomplete pass have magically erased one game from the schedule?
"If" Denard doesn't implode we likely beat ND, "If" Denard doesn't get hurt we "might" have beat Nebraska, "If" Borges doesn't play conservative we "might" have beaten OSU. The breaks go both ways over the course of a season, you can't say Michigan was one play from 6-6 because they might have been 3 plays away from 10-2, you truly never know.
the exception of Alabama, they also could have won every single game they lost. Outplayed ND in alot of respects, but committed too many turnovers. Most likely would have beat Nebraska without the injury to Denard, or if Gardner was the backup for that game. Nearly beat OSU and probally would have won with better offensive playcalling in critical spots. Lost on a late td to a very good South Carolina team, and probally would have won without the injuries, and suspension in the secondary.
So yes, you are correct that a couple games could have been losses, but you have to look at it both ways. UM was also a handful of plays and a couple of injuries away from possibly being 12-1 as well.
Yes it could have been 12-1...but the distance to 6-6 is much shorter (Tree drops pass vs Northwestern and Wile or Gibbons misses one of 4 FGs to beat State) than the long road to 12-1 (Denard throws to our guys instead of NDs, Bellomy sucking it up and beating Nebraska, Borges reprising 1st half and actually scoring a 2nd half TD. vs Ohio.)
Fumbles/INTs can strike at any time. Devin has been known to throw to the other team. Injury to Denard is a fair comparison. The same injury to Devin would be a much worse result in 2013. Borges still exists. 8 wins is better than last year. I think this team is better and I have high hopes. I would not bet on it though until I see them play - especially Miller vs. ND.the state of the Big Ten at the moment, as a very likely outcome. MSU is only rivalry game on the road as well. 8 wins is setting the bar low, I just don't see a likely scenereo (with the exception of Gardner getting hurt) where UM and OSU don't perform like the two best teams in the conference. And like I said, the restrospective if game with regards to win/loss record is a slippery slope, as there are games that could have turned out differently on both sides.
I can't help you see but I can help you spell. Retrospective analysis is a worthy scenario to consider when the comparison is valid (ie QB depth...). I would juxtapose the hype with that of about this time last year. I'll drink the koolaid but I'll leave my wallet at home for the time being.
When you refer to the state of the B1G are you looking at it retrospectively? MSU and PSU are weaker but capable and have their own motivations. Everyone else is stronger.
Michigan will be capable of beating every team on the schedule but I think that will be a tough chore to go 12-0. I think these games are winnable but they will be tough games where 1 or 2 plays could cost us.
I worry about these teams: ND, MSU, NE, NU and OSU. If we can win 3 of these games we will have a good chance to win 10 or more games.
Games we should win but...CT, PSU and IA could possibly pull an upset if we go on the road over confident. If we win all three of these games, along with 3 of the tough games, we will win 10 or more games.
My guess if that we will beat MSU on the road and OSU and NE at home. We may lose against ND and NU in very close games.
I think we will experience an upset at PSU or IA. So I'm thinking a 9-3 record and a New Years Day bowl game, but not a BCS bowl game.
I'm looking forward to the Greg's defense and on offense Gardner's awsome QB and the running game. We could have a RB tandem similar to the 1997 season with a veteran and freshman sharing duties through most of the season.
The defense will be awsome in '14 and beyond!
Over. The home game win streak stays alive, which is 7 wins, plus road wins at UConn, Iowa, and MSU. Losses to Northwestern and Penn State.
Over. I think we'll get 10 or 11 this year.
I would rather have this tough stretch late in the season, since there is a high degree of talent on both the offense and defense and the experience they gain will only make this young team better. I do worry about an injury to Gardner but I hope by then Morris will have enough time in clean up duties to know the offense well enough to execute. I'm really excited that Greg is developing a top notch defense. It will be fun to watch how this team will improve through the season. I have to admit, I'm quite excited about this team! Injuries could keep us down as low as 7 wins but the future looks very bright!
If you looked at the 2012 Sagarin numbers as a rough predictor for our baseline expectation for this year, the table looks something like this:
| TEAM | Michigan Rating | Opponent Rating | HFA | POINTS (EST) |
| Central Michigan | 82.85 | 60.83 | 2.84 | 24.86 |
| Notre Dame | 82.85 | 91.08 | 2.84 | -5.39 |
| Akron | 82.85 | 49.4 | 2.84 | 36.29 |
| Connecticuit | 82.85 | 64.35 | 2.84 | 15.66 |
| OPEN | ||||
| Minnesota | 82.85 | 69.22 | 2.84 | 16.47 |
| Penn State | 82.85 | 78.83 | 2.84 | 1.18 |
| Indiana | 82.85 | 67.47 | 2.84 | 18.22 |
| OPEN | ||||
| Michigan State | 82.85 | 78.15 | 2.84 | 1.86 |
| Nebraska | 82.85 | 81.06 | 2.84 | 4.63 |
| Northwestern | 82.85 | 81.72 | 2.84 | -1.71 |
| Iowa | 82.85 | 68.79 | 2.84 | 11.22 |
| Ohio State | 82.85 | 85.21 | 2.84 | 0.48 |
There would be - under these assumptions - six games in which we are favored a TD or more, and three games in which we would be 1-10 point favorites. That would leave us Ohio State, which probably is a good each-way bet. It also leaves ND and Northwestern, where we would be slight underdogs. None of these games, using these numbers, are out of reach, but I would think that 9-3 is a pretty realistic estimate based on this.
I still disagree with the basic premise that UM has an "easy" schedule this year. I think UM fans who make this statement are doing so because UM doesn't appear to have any games where they will be a heavy "dog" as opposed to last season with the "big four" away games of Bama, ND, Nebraska and OSU where UM was definitely expected to lose. The rest of the 2012 schedule was not too difficult with the exception of MSU and NWestern and UM benefited from having those games at home.
The 2013 schedule has more room for uncertainty, in my opinion, as there are only five/six games where I am confident UM will win: CMU, Akron, UConn, Minnesota and Indiana. The sixth game is Iowa and UM should beat Iowa but I am not as confident in calling that an "auto-win" like the first five because of UM's history of struggling with the Hawkeyes in Iowa City. The remaining six games are all (at best) toss-ups and I could easily see UM losing any (or, gulp, all) of the six: ND, @PSU, @MSU, @NW, Nebraska and OSU.
Last season, I thought UM's floor was 7-5 and their ceiling was 9-3. This year, I think the floor is 6-6 and the ceilng is 12-0. Neither extreme is likely and I think UM's realistic range for next year is 8-4 to 10-2, so I think the under is a pretty safe bet. Personally, I am predicting a 9-3 regular season for UM.
ND and OSU are toss-ups, probably slight edge to UM because they're at home. The rest should be gimmes. So 10 wins at a minimum.
Kidding of course, I think it's clear over. IMO, Northwestern and Ohio are the only two question marks of the regular season.