FEI ratings are out-Michigan #3

Submitted by Farnn on

Offense, defense, and overall(preseason finally dropped out) ratings were just posted and they have Michigan 3rd overall behind Clemson and Alabama.  Interestingly, the offense is ranked 3rd nationally while the defense is ranked 4th.  The defense seems to be dragged down by being ranked 96th in turnover rate while early every other component is top 5.  The offense is top 20 in all categories across the board which leads to a higher composite.

Overall, a bunch of differences from S&P+ and some rankings don't pass the eye test.

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FauxMo

October 18th, 2016 at 11:29 AM ^

Players: "Coach, we keep smashing the quarterbacks in the backfield and their limp bodies just fall to the ground on top of the ball. Should we let up a little so that they have time to hand-off and/or force a pass, thereby leading to more fumbles or interceptions? It would really help our turnover margin and FEI rating!" 

Don Brown: "No." 

Joined: 06/17/2010

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Squash34

October 18th, 2016 at 3:24 PM ^

That I am looking forward to the most. The kid from bc was able to get to the rb just after the handoff would happen. Peppers should get there before that. And they will not have film on it this year. Unless I missed it, brown has used a bunch of pressures and run blitzes but I have not seen him use any in this category.

Joined: 09/13/2016

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BayWolves

October 18th, 2016 at 11:33 AM ^

You just figured out how Rutgers can sell a scholarship to a punter.  Come to Rutgers and punt your ass off in a display of punting awesomeness for the whole country to see. Scouts will take notice!

Joined: 06/21/2011

MGoPoints: 11056

youn2948

October 18th, 2016 at 1:09 PM ^

Think of the Quads/Hammies.  

I always wanted to be a college punter and do walk-on tryouts.  If only I had gone to a school with a football team.  Wanted to be that crazy kicker who kicked/punted and tried to gun at the same time, had track speed.  I even practiced solo almost every single day as a kid.  If i can punt a ball across the length of a soccer field and a football across my yard with a few seconds of hang time why not.  Never understood how some punts only went 30 yards, I guess focusing on hangtime or very accurate/precise but no strength?  I would have had to practice on accuracy though, probably would shank too many.  I'd say 1/10 I shanked when playing around.

\random

\yes I'm not an alum forsake me

Joined: 05/28/2010

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Hail-Storm

October 18th, 2016 at 11:17 AM ^

The defense has faced a lot fewer snaps than other defenses have, so opportunities are way down in comparison. As others have said, I'll take the defense that holds an offense to negative yardage for most of the game rather than need a high amount of turnovers. 

This is far from a bend don't break outfit.  This is a wall of unyielding mass. 

Joined: 06/07/2010

MGoPoints: 9776

Farnn

October 18th, 2016 at 11:28 AM ^

Here's their definition of turnover rate or DTO: the percentage of opponent offensive drives that result in a fumble or interception.  Michigan hasn't had a ton of takeaways, a lot more teams forced to punt.  Actually kind of surprising they haven't caused more fumbles with all the sacks and TFLs.  (Maybe they are saving those for OSU)

Joined: 07/07/2008

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dragonchild

October 18th, 2016 at 11:58 AM ^

A fumble is often caused because the QB doesn't see the pressure coming.

Our D-line has been MURDERDEATHKILL on opposing QBs from the first defensive play from scrimmage.  By the second quarter, 2-3 free hitters are firmly established as the norm.  Not to mention we get a ton of pressure from the interior and strong side, where the QB can stare death in the face.  They have to tuck or get rid of the ball quickly.

If the timing of the pressure was varied and/or mostly coming from the WDE then we could expect more fumbles, but this D-line pressures so consistently and from everywhere, I've never seen anything like it.

Joined: 10/13/2011

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wahooverine

October 18th, 2016 at 4:43 PM ^

Exactly. Additionally WR's have to actually catch the ball before they can fumble. Completions are hard to come by.  RB's usually fumble when they are at the line of scrimage or through it and somebody hits them from a blind angle with a head of steam or punches it out from behind. Against us they either get immediately swallowed by a DL or LB in front of them, or they run meekly into, as someone above said, a chaotic "unyielding mass". In either case they just turtle up and go down.

I'm okay with this turnover rate. In fact I like it, it can only go up!

Joined: 11/14/2011

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LJ

October 18th, 2016 at 11:38 AM ^

You would think the better measure would be turnovers forced per snap.  A team that faces 6 drives of  20 total snaps with 1 turnover is not worse at forcing turnovers than a team that faces 6 drives of 60 total snaps with 2 turnovers. 

Joined: 07/05/2008

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Squash34

October 18th, 2016 at 3:34 PM ^

With the pressure on the qb the strip sack is low. However, I recall at least 2 forced fumbles on a qb, one from peppers and one by McCray. But the ball just bounced right to the only offensive player in the area looking at the ball. I think alot has to do with opponent offensive play calling. It seems like most teams are going to quick passing plays because of how fast they get pressure. I think they can do a better job of getting the second guy to the ball carrier to try and strip the ball.

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Blue In NC

October 18th, 2016 at 11:44 AM ^

Yes, and I feel (without looking) that Michigan has forced a reasonable number of interceptions.  It's just that not many fumbles are coming our way.

Edit: after looking it appears that the D has 6 interceptions (which seems pretty good IMO) and recovered 4 fumbles (which is lower but still appears to be decent).  Michigan has only lost two fumbles and only thrown 2 interceptions.  So the tally for 6 games is 10 TOs forced and only 4 TOs committed.

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Yinka Double Dare

October 18th, 2016 at 11:20 AM ^

I imagine FEI, as a drive-based stat, really likes that we have a very strong record of finishing drives in the end zone, hence our offense being rated much higher there than in S&P+ (a play-based stat)

Joined: 06/30/2008

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DrMantisToboggan

October 18th, 2016 at 11:31 AM ^

Right, I could have prefaced that with "Depending on the punting and punt return units, ...". With our defense, opponents punters, and Peppers this has certainly not been the case so far. 

OSU has a good punter so we will see if it remains true that punting is as good as a turnover for us.

Joined: 11/26/2014

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Michifornia

October 18th, 2016 at 11:27 AM ^

But I'll take a "lower" ranking in any category as long as we keep WINNING!!  Keep the train moving boys!

Headed to the Big House from Cali Friday with two of my girls and can't wait!!!

GO BLUE!!

Joined: 10/03/2013

MGoPoints: 13813

FreddieMercuryHayes

October 18th, 2016 at 11:30 AM ^

Most interesting part is that FEI has UM's special teams as the number 1 special teams in the nation. S&P+ has UM in the 90s or something. If I had to guess that's because S&P+ puts field position (thus the punt and punt return game), into the offense and defense stats. Guessing FEI puts that into the special team category.



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blueblue

October 18th, 2016 at 11:34 AM ^

I see you Notre Dame, lurking there at #55, two spots below App State. And you Spartans, two below Middle Tennessee in that deceptively good #70 spot....

Joined: 03/25/2015

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bluebrains98

October 18th, 2016 at 11:41 AM ^

Love this stat in the final column at the OP link--projected wins remaining among scheduled opponents:

UM: 5.2

OSU: 5.1

Both are projected to win The Game, just a little bit, but us by a little bit more.

Joined: 01/14/2009

MGoPoints: 7068

Hard-Baughlls

October 18th, 2016 at 11:47 AM ^

We don't really need stats or rankings to validate what we can see on the field, although it's always interesting to look in to the numbers.

I think our 1's are better than anybody in the country, including Alabama, and fortunately we have depth at the most important position to rotate in....the d-line.  

However, our depth is no where near OSU or Bama yet on the O-line, secondary, and LB positions so we can't afford any more injuries.

Stay healthy and the ceiling for this team will be determined by Speight's performance and the football gods.  

Joined: 09/28/2016

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CorkyCole

October 18th, 2016 at 11:48 AM ^

Is there a stat out there that tracks defensive turnovers per play or per X amount of plays? When your defense is allowing so few plays per possession and your offense is pushing so many plays per possession, it's really difficult to have a strong turnover ratio with so many fewer opportunities. If there is such a stat out there, I feel like that would be a better barometer for determining turnover rankings than the ratio itself. And maybe that's what the turnover rank is doing, but that's not my understanding.

Joined: 06/13/2011

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LSAClassOf2000

October 18th, 2016 at 2:43 PM ^

There are numerous variations on TO Margin per game, but this one you suggest might be intriguing. Michigan has gained 10 turnovers and allowed teams to run 357 offensive snaps, so it's basically one turnover every 36 defensive snaps approximately, so basically 1-2 per game. 

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