MGoShoe

August 10th, 2010 at 10:40 PM ^

...harsh dose of reality, but my optimism remains unbowed. Disappointments are only disappointing if they smash one's outsized expectations.  I prefer to be disappointed by negative results rather than surprised by positive results.

blue note

August 10th, 2010 at 11:57 PM ^

let's just link this preview next to a more positive one next time an analyst predicts 5-7. 6-6, 7-5 and do away with the back and forth pessimist vs optimist arguments.

Optimism is great and if that makes the offseason more fun, go ahead, but those of us who need to see it before we believe it are not exactly out of our minds either. Time for the seasons to start.

Zone Left

August 10th, 2010 at 11:01 PM ^

God, that graph is just appalling.  

However, we have substitutes this year!  That, an offense that should regress to the mean turnover-wise, and another year in the system all bode well for improvement.  It almost makes me more optimistic in a weird, deluded way.

maizedandconfused

August 10th, 2010 at 11:01 PM ^

I think that the assessment is fair, however it lacks the critical issue that seemed to undermine the team last year.

Depth. While I can't in good faith sit here and tell you that our defense will definetly be better, I do like the fact that

a. we have competition at almost all starting spots

b. we have some semblance of a depth chart (while some options on those depth charts are obviously behind the "break in case of emergency" glass)

c. experienced starters in this system. Coaches can coach all they want, but nothing brings along a player quicker than a personal session with a veteran who has actually experienced the ins and outs of the scheme, and what to expect/how to react when certain situations arise. Defensive schemes are just gameplans, and they are slightly modified by good players to effect the best team and personal result from each play.

 

Im pretty excited, and I hope the secondary/LBs can cover for the 4 or 5 seconds its going to take Roh and Martin to unleash chaos.... and occasionally come up in run support. Pressure from the front 3/4 without stunting will be a critical point.

BiSB

August 10th, 2010 at 11:07 PM ^

That when you are being chased by a lion, you don't have to be faster than the lion.  You just need to be faster than one other person in your group.

The defense was abysmal last year.  Flat-out, unmitigated, Charles Barkley-esque turrible. And despite that, the team won five games.  If the offense continues to improve, a slight improvement on the defensive side of the ball will hopefully lead to a much less painful season.

wlvrine

August 10th, 2010 at 11:31 PM ^

If the offense continues to improve, a slight improvement on the defensive side of the ball will hopefully lead to a much less painful season.

 

The thing that has me excited and optimistic for the upcoming season is this:  A functioning defense would be more than a slight improvement.  If Michigan can simply get their defense to operate as a unit, then that would be a major improvement over last years squad.

Paly33

August 10th, 2010 at 11:28 PM ^

Man that was a sobering analysis and I can't really argue it either.  They really just need to go out and prove it as a group.  The experience alone should give us a boost but still quite a bit inexperienced talent.

 

Ernis

August 10th, 2010 at 11:54 PM ^

He's right that there is very little margin of error this season.

Ultimately, what emerges this year will indicate whether last year's lack of depth and experience were merely "excuses" made to defend the coaches or valid reasons for poor performance.

Lutha

August 11th, 2010 at 12:15 AM ^

Doc Sat states that GERG's 2009 defense regressed from the 2008 Shafer defense, though GERG had significantly less talent to work with last year than in 2008--remember the defense was supposed to carry us that year during the offensive transition?  Anyway hopefully another year with the same coordinator and GERG working his magic with Mouton and Ezeh will be enough to stabilize the defense.

moffle

August 11th, 2010 at 12:26 AM ^

One point I would quibble with is, I don't think a significant senior year improvement from Ezeh or Mouton is really that extremely unlikely.

Mhpangr

August 11th, 2010 at 1:09 AM ^

Seems to me that no one other than Brian actually mentions TO margin and its impact on performance.  The last 2 years we have been abysmal in this category, and I think it is safe to say that if the TO margin drastically improves this year, we will have a decent record.  It will also be a rough indicator on how the offense and defense perform...

Moe Greene

August 11th, 2010 at 6:29 AM ^

....in the might of GERG's mane to overcome all obstacles.

Seriously, though,  DocSat stresses the importance of coaching here. If that's the case, then I like our chances...

jrbulls

August 11th, 2010 at 9:23 AM ^

No need to outthink the room. This may be a different era, but football is STILL football....and if you constantly shoot yourself in the foot?? It catches up to you eventually. I'm very excited about our offense & can wax poetically about the sum of its parts, i.e. our potential explosiveness in regards to speedsters like Shoelace, Gallon, T-Rob, etc. Yet, I temper my giddyness by simplifying my expectations & outlook. If we don't turn over the ball as much?? We win more games, imo. Addition by subtraction.