Dear SEC: Alabama has 531 COVID cases in 3 days
The University of Alabama enters the kingdom of shame after hundreds of students were videotaped partying without masks. (And, yes, given that Alabama is the center of the college football universe, reports like this are relevant on this board.)
https://tuscaloosathread.com/531-new-covid-19-cases-at-university-of-alabama-in-five-days/
August 25th, 2020 at 8:48 AM ^
and all 531 will survive
August 25th, 2020 at 8:58 AM ^
I mean, I hope you're right, but there is ZERO reason to assume this.
August 25th, 2020 at 11:00 AM ^
IFR under 35 is 0.01%. 531 cases x .0001 = .0531 deaths.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160895v3.full.pdf+html
Just because you don't agree with make people who make statements not supported by evidence does not mean you should. The data above clearly provides a reason to support the idea that they will all survive.
August 25th, 2020 at 11:08 AM ^
True, death is unlikely among them, but significant numbers will suffer greatly and 5 to 10 will be left with myocarditis and other long term effects.
And Alabama has 38,000 students, so if everyone is infected, there will be about 4 fatalities.
Not to mention 10,000+ support personnel (faculty, admin, etc.) who are considerably older and will have FAR higher death rate than 0.01%.
August 25th, 2020 at 11:36 AM ^
Myocarditis is treatable and people recover from it.
Regarding the far higher numbers for support staff it depends on their age.
Those 35 to 44 have an IFR of 0.04% - still pretty low
45 to 54 is 0.2%
55 to 64 is 0.7%
65 to 74 is 2.4%
75 to 84 is 8.9%
85+ is 36.8%
Seems like there may be a strategy here to isolate those over 65 and identify and isolate those under 65 at risk. Combine that with staff taking precautions including social distancing, mask, and hand washing along with improving ventilation and filtration of workspaces and you could have controllable situation. Staff are unlikely to be hanging out at the house parties where a lot of the spread occurs. If we average the IFR for the 35 to 64 group, assume 100% infection among the staff, you get around 30 deaths in that group. The above precautions along with the likelihood that less than 100% or any group can even be infected should allow for numbers well below 30 deaths among the 10,000 staff to occur.
August 25th, 2020 at 12:44 PM ^
So 30 deaths and hundreds with long term effect is totally cool... good to know.
August 25th, 2020 at 12:59 PM ^
Did I not talk about strategies to lower that number substantially? I guess you ignored that because its easier to fear monger than offer up potential solutions.
What number of deaths are you going to be “cool” with?
August 25th, 2020 at 8:56 AM ^
The B1G and PAC-12 placed opposite bets as the SEC, ACC, and BIG-12, someone is gonna be wrong here. I honestly hope it's us because I hope all the kids at the other 3 conferences are safe, but damn man...
August 25th, 2020 at 8:58 AM ^
Most of my lifetime, the Democrats have had control of Congress, and usually both houses
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Party_divisions_of_United_States_Congresses
August 25th, 2020 at 9:00 AM ^
The fuck is your point here?
August 25th, 2020 at 9:02 AM ^
I’m with several others and thought that the 531 referred to the state, not the university. That would be a reasonable number for a state and not terrible alarming. Can’t believe it’s just the university.
August 25th, 2020 at 9:41 AM ^
Roll Tide??
August 25th, 2020 at 9:44 AM ^
Same tests as the NFL used last weekend- where they had 77 false positives?
Or the same ones Fla used - where they had 100% positives in multiple labs?
August 25th, 2020 at 10:04 AM ^
Alabama's AD right about now
August 25th, 2020 at 10:11 AM ^
I think one needs to realize that something might be wrong with the tests being administered when you have this:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/24/nfl-has-77-apparently-false-positive-coronavirus-tests-from-lab.html
and remember, it's all about health and safety. We need to be strict about this unless :
August 25th, 2020 at 11:01 AM ^
If you are looking for a test with zero false negative/positive, you are going to be looking for a very long time. This is why they verify positives with additional tests (when required).
You are also neglecting that there are number of false negatives, those are harder to find, but they are there and would be a bigger problem.
COVID-19 tests are FAR more reliable than anti-body tests (those are really wild wild west).
August 25th, 2020 at 10:31 AM ^
531 of them will be perfectly fine.
August 25th, 2020 at 11:56 AM ^
What is your definition of fine? If it means that you think none of them will die, then fine. Its very possible, if not probable, that none of these 531 people die. But the odds of any of them having long-term health problems, such as heart issues and lung scarring, are considerably higher. And that's not something to scoff at, especially considering how contagious this virus is.
I know you're still pissed that your team isn't playing football. I get it. But this isn't just the flu, pal.
August 25th, 2020 at 12:13 PM ^
I mean there is a 99.99999% chance none of them will die, so yes, none will die.
99.87% have nothing more than the symptoms of the common cold.
August 25th, 2020 at 12:13 PM ^
Also, you should be just as pissed as we all are that there isn’t B1G football.
August 25th, 2020 at 12:31 PM ^
Please explain why this fact should impact my emotional state? It seems one of us has lost perspective.
August 25th, 2020 at 1:06 PM ^
We're all pissed and disappointed. Some of us are able to understand that our own wants and needs aren't necessarily in the best interests of others. Things happen. You can't always get everything you want in life.
August 26th, 2020 at 2:34 PM ^
The fact that this needs to be explained to so many adults, so many times, is absolutely mind numbing.
August 25th, 2020 at 1:39 PM ^
Of course I’m upset. Who said I wasn’t? But I also understand that sometimes my want to have three hours of entertainment 12 Saturdays a year doesn’t outweigh what the common good is for everyone else. So you know what I did? I got over it.
I know Buckeye fans aren’t used to not getting what they want, but seriously pal, sack the fuck up and get on with your life. There are bigger tragedies than you not getting to watch your favorite football team. They’ll be back.
Life isn’t all about getting what you want.
August 25th, 2020 at 11:02 AM ^
Couple weeks ago, I dropped my daughter off for her freshman year at Alabama. Here was my experience:
Impressed with the level of rigor and precautions. Signage everywhere, masks being worn by many students outside, and by all people inside. Sanitizer filling stations in all common areas.
All students had to be tested before coming onto campus and we had to submit proof. This was asked for multiple times at move in.
Classes are largely online and those that aren't are distanced seating.
Admittedly, the campus was not highly populated yet and I am sure that keeping a student body with 30000 students to a high level of diligence is challenging to almost impossible.
Just last week, additional restrictions were put on the Greek system.
My opinion, as a tuition-paying parent is that the school is taking all reasonable actions to try to have a "normal" semester. I was skeptical before I went but I am comfortable with what is being done. I dont know that it will be enough to keep kids on campus, and for sure there will be kids who don't take precautions, but that's not exclusively a college phenomenon.
Just thought I would share my first hand account.
August 25th, 2020 at 11:11 AM ^
I think your story is exactly the problem. They did all of that, and yet...
August 25th, 2020 at 11:20 AM ^
That is because most masks do not work.
This Doc demonstrates it here ... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SrPCgh4UkAU
August 25th, 2020 at 2:29 PM ^
Well, that YouTube video is rather misleading. Though if you're someone already against the idea of wearing a mask, then you're probably going to act like that video is solid proof they're useless.
I mean, smoke can travel much easier through the openings or cracks of a mask, than ordinary droplets from a person's mouth.
Some droplets might escape, but a mask would still limit how far they travel through the air. Scientific research has recently shown that a sneeze is capable of traveling almost 30 feet through the air.
A mask could reduce that distance and possibly save a lot of people from walking through the long pathway of a sneeze.
We don't have all the answers for this pandemic, but we're trying to do some simple precautions, like wearing a mask.
August 25th, 2020 at 11:47 AM ^
Trump is an asshole.
In before the locked topic!!!!!!!!!!
August 25th, 2020 at 3:14 PM ^
Dude, this topic was started late yesterday afternoon. It's not going to be locked.
You, however...
August 25th, 2020 at 1:56 PM ^
Dear macbru panty waist. it's a cold, lest than .02 death rate and a "test" with a huge % of false positives. They'll live big guy.
August 25th, 2020 at 2:27 PM ^
Im shocked of how many buckeyes are joining this blog to scream from the mountain tops of "this isnt fair"
Dont you have to pay to get on this site now? It will be a cold day in hell if i ever created a damn login on 11Warriors or RCMB
hard pass
August 25th, 2020 at 2:34 PM ^
So, we dont want Bama?
August 25th, 2020 at 4:06 PM ^
Here's the UA president's assessment:
“Our challenge is not the students,” UA president Stuart Bell said on Monday morning. “Our challenge is the virus and there’s a difference, folks. What we have to do is identify where does the virus thrive and where does the virus spread and how can we work together with our students, with our faculty, and with our staff to make sure that we minimize those places, those incidents. It’s not student behavior, OK. It’s how do we have protocols so that we make it to where our students can be successful, and we can minimize the impact of the virus.”
The idiocy of this statement is stunning.
August 25th, 2020 at 6:00 PM ^
August 25th, 2020 at 5:01 PM ^
Covid wants Bama
August 25th, 2020 at 9:26 PM ^
Cases,cases,cases. So many cases.
August 25th, 2020 at 9:53 PM ^
Cases dont matter......
August 26th, 2020 at 9:07 AM ^
A buddy's daughter goes to school at Alabama. I asked him about this and his reply, "over 33,000 students and staff at the university, 550 positive cases, a little over 1 1/2%, pretty much as expected".
I asked if there was any info about how many of the 550 were being treated vs asymptomatic and he said not that he was aware of.
August 26th, 2020 at 11:06 AM ^
What are the odds that people in top physical condition aged 18-22 will have poor outcomes here?
Don't post a single anecdote, post data.
September 10th, 2020 at 2:36 AM ^
To be fair this is a different approach entirely. They're doing it in Sweden and according to a European study it is possible to achieve herd immunity without a vaccine as a matter of fact this study stated that 43 percent is needed for that....70 percent vaccine coverage is needed...
But here is the kicker...the pharmaceutical trials are often slanted towards achieving the desired result...We already know that the flu vaccine for example is only 29 percent effective and it's been out forever and had a ton of R&D behind it.
I am not a fan of any political party but I think that the approach many are going with is to let healthy people get the virus and develop antibodies to it while being safely quarantined.
Not saying it's right or wrong just saying that seems to be their MO.