Comparing Speight and O'Korn using 3 UFR-based QB metrics to control for Pass Pro & WR drops

Introduction

MGoBrethren,

Happy Day to all. Beat State. Beat them to an indistinguishable pulp.

With that said, I thought I'd share with all of you still sober (or black out or anxious as hell for anything else Michigan before the game) some of the analysis I've been working on since the Purdue game. I set out to review the UFR in an attempt to see whether or not "Red Zone Offense" is a thing. I ended up compiling a massive chart of all the UFRs plus a couple extra data points collected from rewatching the games. The RZ analysis is coming. But in the meantime, I wanted to share my attempt to create 3 new QB score metrics to best compare Speight and O'Korn on a level playing field.

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The QB Score metrics:

I have divided passing plays into two main categories:

1. Standard passing downs (1st & >15, 2nd & >8, 3rd & >4)
2. Standard running downs (1st & <15, 2nd & 8-, 3rd & 4-)

Then, I am filtering each category based on whether the charted pass protection is negative or possitive/NA (i.e. screen plays).

Finally, I am excluding plays where WRs dropped a catchable ball (CA/DO as charted in the UFR), or where the pass rush resulted in a charted PR.

This creates 3 types of plays:

1) Pure QBS: Passing plays on standard passing downs with non-negative pass protection scores, with WR drops on CA or DO throws excluded.

- This looks at a QB's ability to make plays on passing downs where the D is expecting pass, and the OL withstands the pass rush.

2) Explosive QBS: Passing plays on standard running downs with non-negative pass protection scores, with WR drops on CA or DO throws excluded.

- This looks at a QB's ability to make plays on theoretically unexpected passing downs, where the D may be caught off guard by the pass, and the OL provides time to deliver a throw.

3) Playmaking QBS: Passing plays on any down with negative pass protection scores, with plays killed due to PR excluded.

- This looks at a QB's ability to make plays when the pass protection fails, but not so much so that he can't still get the ball out.

I then look at each play as they fall into one of these three categories and create the following summary for each metric:

*A quick note on success rate:

• Success rate is a very interesting metric in itself. See The Mathlete vs. Bill C. for full definition and discussion of its relevance.
• tl;dr: it has solid utility in analyzing Michigan's passing offense because the offense is average at best.

With the definitions laid out, we're onto the comparisons.

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1) Pure QBS:

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2) Explosive QBS:

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3) Playmaking QBS:

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Analysis:

Go Blue, beat State. (I'm still working on breaking these down by O-form, play type--i.e. PA vs. dropback, WR vs. HB vs. TE target, route #s, pass blockers vs. pass rushers, etc. All that to come sometime soon, hopefully...)