Comparing 7-0 starts in the Harbaugh era
For the 4th time under Harbaugh, our boys have begun the season 7-0. I thought it was also interesting that in each of those seasons, our 8th game was vs MSU. I thought it would be interesting to look back and compare the teams and see how this one stacks up.
2016: Ranking going into MSU game: #2.
Scoring Margin 341-70 (48.7-10)
Most impressive win: vs #8 Wisconsin (14-7)
The 2016 team really came out of the gate on fire on all cylinders. Probably as complete of a defense we have had here at all 3 levels. The offense, despite not having a dynamic starting RB or a mobile QB really put up the points early in the year. That was aided a lot by games vs Hawai'i and Rutgers where the scoring margin in those two games alone was 141-3. Later in the season, the lack of explosive playmakers on the offensive side, and albeit having a good OL, it was not up to the level we see later in this list; it began to show up in bigger ways. The offense struggled in the last 3 games of the regular season, ultimately leaving us out of the B1G title game and the CFP. Based on how the season started, this team ended up being the most disappointing of the previous 3.
2021: Ranking going into MSU game: #6
Scoring Margin: 264-100 (37.7-14.2)
Most impressive win: @ #14 Wisconsin 38-17.
Despite the 23 point average margin of victory, this team had the smallest margin spread through 7 games. Close games vs Nebraska and Rutgers occurred to start the B1G season, and a sluggish first half vs Northwestern. The 2021 team out of the 4 7-0 teams at this point of the season seemed the least likely to end up in the CFP, but after the robbery in EL, the team was able to rattle off 5 straight victories and defeat the best OSU squad out of all these seasons. This team had the best pass rush of any of these teams along with a top-tier run game. Not having a dynamic passing game was the biggest thing holding this team back.
2022: Ranking going into MSU game: #4
Scoring Margin: 299-95 (42.7-13.5)
Most impressive win: vs #10 Penn St 41-17.
The 2022 season was very business like to start the year, with the exception of a closer-than-anticipated game vs Maryland to start the B1G season. At this point in the season, we were coming off of our most impressive game of the season after dominating Penn St where both RBs had over 100 yards. The run game was the best in the country and we had made the switch to a higher-ceiling QB. At this point in the season, there were still questions about our ability to go deep, and the pass rush wasn't where it was a year prior. Still, based on the schedule it was pretty safe to assume we would go into Columbus 11-0.
2023: Ranking going into MSU game: #2
Scoring Margin 276-47 (39.4-6.7)
Most impressive win: @ Nebraska 45-7 (?)
Easiest schedule through 7 games for sure out of these 4 seasons. However, the concerns that existed in previous years do not seem to be there with this team. Through 7 weeks this is the most complete 7-0 team we have had under Harbaugh. The passing game has looked crisp 6 out of 7 weeks. We know what we are getting from the running game. Defensively, the starters have not allowed a team to drive the field and get in a "goal-to-go" situation all season. In my opinion, the last 5 games of the season are as tough as any season (except maybe 2021 where we had a Kenneth Walker team, @ Penn St, and full Death Star OSU).
As we enter week 8 vs MSU for the 4th time 7-0, in my opinion this is the most complete team and most suited to finish the ultimate goal.
How would you all rank the teams at this point of the season compared to one another?
October 17th, 2023 at 12:31 PM ^
this team is the best because …
we have one of, if not the, best defense in the country
the best RB room in the country
top 3 TE room in the country
top 3 QB in the country
October 17th, 2023 at 1:07 PM ^
"the best RB room in the country"
Maybe last year, but not this year.
According to the stats page on ESPN, Michigan ranks #41 in the country in rushing yds/game. Corum's yds/carry average is 5.7; that's OK, but not close to leading the country. The only department that he's leading is in TDs.
Edwards, for whatever reason, has largely been a disappointment at RB so far this year.
Mullings and Hall haven't gotten enough carries to really prove themselves yet.
October 17th, 2023 at 1:15 PM ^
we have an effective run game, but no longer elite by any real quantitative or qualitative measure. we are so slow on offense that we no longer pile up yards in the 2nd half... and the clock is running.
But, the biggest ding probably is the OL... my hope is that within 2-3 weeks it really is peaking, because there are glaring holes weekly. sometimes bad run blocks, sometimes letting free rushers, sometimes whiffing...
really need to keep home grown OL talent being the majority of the line. 3 transfers playing heavy or ful lminutes is not the recipe we've used
October 17th, 2023 at 1:24 PM ^
What's weird is that you'd think our improved passing game would open up opportunities for our running game, but that doesn't seem to have happened yet.
One caveat to the numbers: it's probable that if Corum and Edwards were playing closer to full games, our running game would appear to be much more dynamic, if for no other reason than repetition.
October 17th, 2023 at 1:36 PM ^
yeah, i don't know if that's because teams just don't want to die by the run or if we really arent that efficient and effective at running, period. Everyone says teams load up the box, and they might, but we should be crushing them down field and we are good at that, but its hard to know because the level of competition is just so poor.. hard to know how effective we really are. would have liked a better tune up game for PSU, but... schedule is what it is.. we'll find out. because as many doubts as i have about their offense... their defense appears to be legit, and our roadpaving OL isnt doing that this year..which was supposed to be the equalizer to their speed.
October 17th, 2023 at 2:12 PM ^
This is a great comparison when you include 2016. Someone was bragging on Reddit that we were 7-0 for the third straight year. Like most people here I'm pretty stoked that we're playing so well, but 7-0 for the last 3 years is a weird brag given our schedule. We beat teams we should have beaten. In 2016 we played what would be a 10-4 Colorado team, PSU and Wisconsin at this point we knew we were really good*. I think we're really good this year too, but, to your point, PSU will be our first really tough team. The big positive of our schedule is it doesn't feel like our offense has gelled yet despite all of the points. The line will get enough reps together and the Don will get out of his funk.
Beat State!
*Forgot to add my asterisk. There is an alternate universe where OSU doesn't get that bogus spot and Michigan is at the level where we are at now for the past six years.
October 17th, 2023 at 6:29 PM ^
We would have taken a step back in 2017 regardless. The OSU heartbreak didn't cause all that.
We had a very small class in 2014, and then, amid the coaching transition, another the next year. Two small classes in a row is tough to overcome (and was even more so in the pre-portal era). 2017 was the year those classes were juniors and seniors, and we had a serious lack of depth. Even if Speight had been healthy, that team's ceiling was probably around 10-3.
What a 2016 win/CFP appearance would have really done was keep Harbaugh's honeymoon with the fans/media going for longer. On the field, things probably wouldn't have been too different. Maybe we'd have landed a couple more blue-chip recruits.
October 17th, 2023 at 2:10 PM ^
Yeah, I'm less worried about the raw rushing totals because the backs simply aren't carrying the ball that often in these blowouts. Corum has run the ball more than 20 times once thus far, and that was 21 vs. Rutgers. By this time last year he had rushed for 30, 29, 38, and 25 times and those were the games where he broke 100 yards.
Much like how the defense has been running their OSU defense regardless of competition, I think the renewed focus on passing the ball is because they're pretty comfortable with the running game and want to make sure McCarthy and the receivers are all set for trying to move the ball against the OSUs and PSUs of the world, plus a matchup with a team like Georgia (pre Bowers injury), FSU, Washington, etc. where the need to score in the air is going to be required.
October 17th, 2023 at 4:50 PM ^
It's a chicken-and-egg thing, though. I think part of the reason we're throwing more is that our running game isn't getting us ahead of the chains as much as it did last year. You can't tell me Harbaugh wouldn't prefer to let his running backs steam-roller other teams as they did last year, were that a reliable option.
And despite all the insistence that "Corum is back," I just don't think that's true. I don't have the stats in front of me, but I'm sure the number of runs he's had for 15 yards or more is way down.
Yes, the offensive line is part of that, but then last year's offensive line would have to get a significant amount of credit for how he did in 2022. It works both ways. Is he a Heisman-trophy-caliber running back or not?
I love our running backs, but for whatever reason they've undeniably struggled this year, compared to last year.
October 17th, 2023 at 7:02 PM ^
Whether Corum is 100% back to his pre-injury self could be debated, but it's going a little far to say that a guy who's rushed for 12 TDs on 96 carries (!) has "undeniably struggled."
Keep in mind, not only does he have fewer carries overall than last year, but he also has far fewer second-half carries, when the opposing defense is more worn down.
October 17th, 2023 at 2:28 PM ^
I agree with the repetition suggestion.
I am delighted for Corum that the number of carries is way down just to keep him healthy. At some point though that may have to change and use Blake as the primary back and use Edwards as a receiver and sparingly as an RB.
Speaking of receivers, some of the guys further down the depth chart are looking really good.
October 18th, 2023 at 9:14 AM ^
Our running game is statistically worse because our passing game is more emphasized. This appears to be a choice by the coaches in reaction to teams now using the sell-out against the run tactic of OSU and TCU. Despite getting shredded, teams haven't backed off because they'd still rather die by the pass than be ground to dust. Also, back-up RB's and line are playing more than last year so contributing to the stats.
All will be settled.
October 18th, 2023 at 10:02 AM ^
Either Corum and Edwards just aren't 100% or the team is trying to limit their touches as much as possible for the games ahead. IMO neither one of them look as fast as they were last year. Corum is good for a touchdown or two each game only because they're inside the 5.
I'm a little shocked they dont have more running room because everyone knows JJ can throw the ball now.
October 17th, 2023 at 1:56 PM ^
Corum's yds/carry average is 5.7; that's OK, but not close to leading the country.
Considering that we use him as both our feature back and our short yardage specialist, that's quite good. A lot of his short runs have been conversions for TDs or first downs. He's had very few unsuccessful carries.
Edwards has been another story unfortunately.
October 17th, 2023 at 5:14 PM ^
The running game has been pretty good thus far but it hasn't carried the offense like it did last season. We've been thumping opponents because the offense as a whole has been so efficient. And that is mainly because JJ is playing lights out. Who here is worried on 3rd and longs this season? It actually adds to my excitement, not my dread, because 3rd and long means we'll likely get to see JJ throw the ball and that has gone swimmingly well.
October 17th, 2023 at 12:35 PM ^
It's tough to rank spots 2 through 4, but there's a clear, indisputable top choice:
1) This 2023 team. I don't think much explanation is needed based on what we've seen so far. If they remain healthy, they may emerge as the clear best team in the country. Among other things, it's wild to see Michigan have potentially the best interior DL in the nation
Beyond that, I'd probably say:
2) 2022: Elite defense (true of all these teams), second-most dynamic offense after 2023, including the best RB and OL in the country
3) 2016: Best defense Michigan has had this century (imo), offense left a lot to be desired but got the job done until Speight got hurt
4) 2021: I love this team but I do believe they overachieved a bit. The best edge-rushing duo in the country (and the best in Michigan history) were the x-factor that allowed them to push the boundaries of a roster that still wasn't perfectly adapted to the new system. Also this team had simply unreasonable amounts of grit, heart, dog--pick your metaphor, they had it
October 17th, 2023 at 12:38 PM ^
All 3 of those teams took OSU to the point where victory had been achieved although in 2016 it was taken away by zebras after it had been acheived. So we are in good company this year.
I am going with 2023 > 2022 > 2021 > 2016 on the basis of QB play.
October 18th, 2023 at 9:20 AM ^
The 2016 had an incredible D, perhaps better than this one, given that the DE's could generate more pressure. It also had Peppers returning punts, which was like 100 hidden yards every game. However, I can't agree with the OP that 2016 had a good OL. Other than Mason Cole, that was a very middling OL with the dregs of the Hoke era, like Kalis and Magneson. While they weren't Frames Janklin terrible, they were a very middling line, as shown by the OSU game when we could barely scrape out a yard when needed.
October 17th, 2023 at 12:39 PM ^
The 2016 team will always be special to me because of the incredible D line, highlighted by Chris Wormley stuffing JT Barrett on fourth and short for the win in Columbus. But, yeah, the 2023 offense is miles ahead of that group.
October 17th, 2023 at 2:02 PM ^
That stuff was LEGENDARY! Especially considering the refs did not do us any favors in that game. ZERO live action penalties called on Ohio…
October 17th, 2023 at 2:18 PM ^
2016 still stings. I think it always will.
October 18th, 2023 at 9:23 AM ^
Does it sting like that ref slapping Mike Weber's ass? Or, is it more like the pain when Urban kicked his kicker on the Jags?
October 17th, 2023 at 12:40 PM ^
I think this team is the best but until they face, and overcome, a bit of adversity I'm going to roll with last year's squad.
While I think the defense is better this year the offense I'd give as a push. 2022 much better running game, this year much better passing game. But the group currently flying under the radar of our evaluation (largely because they really havent been needed yet) are the special teams. 2022's squad had elite punting and kicking and we've definitely taken a step back this year as we break in new players.
But like I said, tell me how this team handles adversity when it arrives. Bo's teams back in the 70's started out 7-0 a lot - unfortunately they didnt always respond well when things got tough.
October 17th, 2023 at 12:57 PM ^
Excellent points. And the character to deal with adversity (and it doesn't get much more adverse than how that game in Columbus was going for most of the first half) is huge.
I'm inclined to lean toward this year's team, because the DL (behind the incredible DTs) and the QB are both upgrades, and those are (in my opinion) the two most important groups to winning titles. But you're absolutely right: We won't know until exam time.
October 17th, 2023 at 1:09 PM ^
"Bo's teams back in the 70's started out 7-0 a lot - unfortunately they didn't always respond well when things got tough."
<<looks at bowl game record and shudders>>
October 17th, 2023 at 1:17 PM ^
"OUR GOAL IS TO WIN THE BIG TEN CHAMPIONSHIP!"
Schembechler, showing his stubborn, provincial self, when asked about something outside the Big Ten season (possibly his bowl record).
October 17th, 2023 at 1:26 PM ^
I always thought it was strange that Schembechler was so dismissive of national championships. I bet Woody wasn't so dismissive.
October 17th, 2023 at 7:11 PM ^
Wasn't the argument that the national title was out of our hands, since it was up to a vote, while the Big Ten title was something we could control?
October 17th, 2023 at 10:40 PM ^
Woody was 6-6 in bowl games. However, after Bo started at UM and the UM/OSU game was almost always a match up of top 5/top 10 teams, Woody's bowl record was 2-6 (1-4 in Rose Bowls).
October 17th, 2023 at 1:34 PM ^
I don't know if the running game was much better in 2022. Mullings and Hall are both better than Stokes (who was/is no slouch). Edwards is still getting warmed up, but that was true last year at this time as well.
Both seasons are a case of taking what they give us. For whatever reason, teams just kept giving us the run last year, and we just kept taking it. I remember much of the Board being frustrated that we weren't opening up the passing game at the time.
Now, our passing game has definitely progressed, but it is also what teams are giving us (or, in many cases, what we are forcing them to let us take). In fact, we have a lot more that we can take, but the percentage of drives that have gone for touchdowns during JJ time has been ridiculous.
And as Neck Sharpies showed, we have the ability just within the run game to really put teams into a catch 22 and start running up the rushing yards. We just haven't needed to because we, uh, *checks notes*... score too efficiently.
We've put this offense into second gear a couple times, but Batman built it, and Jason Bourne is driving it, and I think we'll see that, when the time comes.
October 17th, 2023 at 2:12 PM ^
adversity, maybe not yet this year but most of the guys have been there the past two years.
October 18th, 2023 at 10:14 AM ^
What gives me hope about how they handle adversity is the fact that they're experienced and won in hostile environments the past 2 seasons. These current players have been to Iowa, osu, Nebraska, and a few of them were there for the win at psu. Not to mention been to Indy twice and a few playoff games. They've experienced a lot the last 2 years so thats a huge advantage for this team compared to previous teams.
October 17th, 2023 at 12:48 PM ^
Until we face adversity, and prove that our RBs are indeed elite this season, I have to give the edge to last year. For now.
October 17th, 2023 at 12:54 PM ^
Good exercise.
Honestly, to me, this is a reminder that we don't *really* know how good this year's team is so far. We suspect; the tools we've seen are impressive. QB in particular is easily the best of the lot, and there's no more important position than that.
But the team looked really good in each of those other seasons, too. And in each case small flaws that we saw early that didn't hurt the team overrall still bit late.
One note about 2016: The OL wasn't "good" as described in the OP. It was "ok" and further suffered when Newsome was hacked down by Wisconsin. Harbaugh was cobbling together Hoke OL pieces with what was, in retrospect, an OL coach that wasn't the best choice to run the drill. When I was calling for Harbaugh's job in 2020 one of the defenses I dismissed with some harshness was the "he was dealt a bad hand" argument (attentive readers should note that TIMMMAAY, whose dislike for me is well known, was the last one standing making this argument and deserves credit for sticking to it when most of us were jumping off of the boat) that was absolutely true and is particularly notable with regard to that team's OL and overall offense. This year's offense is better than that one at 10 or 11 out of 11 positions.
That weakness, which was visible in UFR, because the team's achilles heel in Iowa City and Columbus. Even with Speight's less-than-superb ceiling and his injury, Michigan could have won both games if the OL had just been able to make a couple of first downs in the fourth quarter, and they could not do so.
Weaknesses in 2021? Well, the passing game. It didn't cost us as much as many of us thought it would after being practically mothballed in early weeks, but the inability to stress Georgia downfield (known to be their only weakness after their SEC championship loss to Alabama and Jameson Williams) meant that the result of the playoff game was a foregone conclusion.
And last year Michigan's short yardage/goal-to-go struggles (and the unwillingness to use JJ consistently in read options) cost the team crucial, decisive points.
I think, and hope, that this team is better than each of those. But it's a reminder that those teams looked terrific, but they weren't perfect. This team looks awesome, but it's not perfect. No QB, not a single one, can function perfectly if under enormous pass rush pressure, and Michigan has shown that it can be vulnerable in that department.
But if Michigan isn't perfect, neither is anybody else.
I can't wait to find out.
October 17th, 2023 at 1:14 PM ^
The 2006 team started out 11-0 with what looked like a dominating defense and a very potent offense, but that defense crapped the bed in the last two games of the season and the offense couldn't make up for the defense's failings.
October 17th, 2023 at 3:20 PM ^
I'll always fondly remember the 47-21 beatdown of ND in South Bend by the 2006 team.
October 17th, 2023 at 1:05 PM ^
I respect the "road" Michigan has been on since Harbaugh arrived.
What strikes me about this year's squad is the culture - alignment - espirit de corps. This team seems to share a purpose to such a degree it's extremely rare in sports these days.
Culture is foundational, and it just seems to be getting stronger every year.
Position groups have varied during the four seasons you noted - but, IMO, the overall quality of execution of this year's team seems to be - "just a little bit higher" - again, overall.
My thanks to everyone involved with the program - the players, coaches, assistants, S&C, analysts, managers, etc. - it's been incredibly fun to watch the squads over the past three seasons (especially) - and look forward to them raising the bar every game day.
Go Blue!
October 17th, 2023 at 1:06 PM ^
I got slapped down a few weeks ago, and righty so, I suppose, for trying to favorably compare the 2016 team to other great Michigan teams. So I'm fine with that team being ranked wherever. But...
I really loved that team. I think I'm the world's biggest Wilton Speight fan. To me, he was a revelation in 2016. Great pocket awareness and movement, good decisions, accurate, big arm. I have always loved the Good Shit Jedd offense the most in the Harbaugh era. And sprinkle it with Peppers.
The defense speaks for itself.
What happened in Iowa was tragic. And you'll never convince me we didn't win in Columbus.
October 17th, 2023 at 1:32 PM ^
2015-16 was some of Harbaugh's very best coaching (which is saying something). We didn't have quite the same overall talent and depth as we do now (although some position groups were excellent, especially on defense) but he managed to completely change the culture of the program, get it to 10 wins in year one and then perform at a CFP level in year two. Just had some tough luck. We lost three games by a total of five points.
October 18th, 2023 at 10:47 AM ^
I remember they started out at Utah his first game too. Then playing not to lose against MSU at the end- they could have won 11 games in 2015.
October 17th, 2023 at 1:10 PM ^
Good to see these numbers together. 4 out of 9 years in JH's tenure the team has started at least 7-0! I like that. Let's hope the team makes it to 8-0, 3 out of 9 years. Hoping for another un-defeated season.
October 17th, 2023 at 1:11 PM ^
that loss in 2021 makes me nervous... lets just get out with a W, not close, but not pretty... pound them into the dirt and walk way.
October 17th, 2023 at 1:35 PM ^
KWIII ain't walking through that door. More importantly, neither is Keon Coleman.
October 17th, 2023 at 1:50 PM ^
MSU was 7-0 and ranked in the top 10 coming into that game. Bit of a different story this time around.
October 17th, 2023 at 1:24 PM ^
I still think the 2016 was top two, along with 2006, in the past 25 seasons. 2007 and 2017 and similar drop offs too
October 17th, 2023 at 2:10 PM ^
2016 seems underrated in retrospect. Harbaugh hadn't been there much more than a year and they were a shaky spot away from making the playoff.
2006? Overrated IMO. Great teams don't give up 26 points to a 5-7 MAC team late in the season. Look at the starting line-up (at the bottom here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Michigan_Wolverines_football_team). Alongside Jake Long, the talented offensive skill players (QB, RB, WR) and a few stars on defense you'll see a whole lot of "just guys." For example, I don't believe any of the other O-linemen or tight ends ever made an active NFL roster.
October 17th, 2023 at 1:47 PM ^
I thought it was also interesting that in each of those seasons, our 8th game was vs MSU.
Huh. I knew we normally played MSU in October, but never paid attention to the specific week it fell on. I went back and looked up when we've been playing them:
2005 - week 5
2006 - week 6
2007 - week 10 (in November)
2008 - week 8
2009 - week 5
2010 - week 6
2011 - week 7
2012 - week 7
2013 - week 8
2014 - week 8
2015 - week 7
2016 - week 8
2017 - week 5
2018 - week 8
2019 - week 10 (in November)
2021 - week 8
2022 - week 8
2023 - week 8
It seems once the Big Ten adopted a divisional format (2011), playing them in week 8 (or occasionally 7) became the norm.
October 17th, 2023 at 2:30 PM ^
So far this 2023 team looks both talented and deep. DB injuries so far have been managed and some depth created. None of these other teams have been able to get backups in mid- late Q3 like these guys have. A virtuous cycle allowing more depth and less chance of a key injury. To some degree lighter competition (so far) has allowed that but this level of depth is a first in theHarbaugh era and no one would dispute there is depth everywhere sans QB. But even QB backup is also quietly getting reps out scoring the last opponent 14-0. We likely have 4 or 5 Uber talented guys that are irreplaceable against elite talent so keeping them injury free is critical down the stretch. But you can’t compare the cake until it’s baked.
last year Blake was on a heisman track until injury. This year his Carrie’s to date are way down by design and lacking the need - and RB3 and RB4 look very promising on limited snaps. And Donavon my yet break out in addition to his elite pass catching skills. Defences have schemed to slow the dominant running attack and M has adjusted accordingly.
with an elite running AND passing attack this team arguably is unique and injury is likely the only barrier to reaching their goals
October 17th, 2023 at 3:06 PM ^
I think it is splitting hairs - that 2016 team was really, really good. Recency bias probably has more people on this forum picking this team (and put a squirt gun to my head and i probably? would too), but they were very, very close.
October 17th, 2023 at 3:54 PM ^
I don't think it's just recency bias. Offensively this year's team has more upside, aided by having Heisman-caliber players at QB and RB.