Coaching GOAT statistics-request for Blue@LSU

Submitted by WestQuad on January 11th, 2024 at 1:43 PM

With Nick Saban retiring, there is all sorts of talk about him being the GOAT.  I don't think he is, but mostly because I strongly dislike him.  I feel this way because:

1. Saban coached MSU and that is how I was first introduced to him.  You're supposed to hate the MSU coach.

2. He left our little brother for LSU after one good year.  It is funny when it is ND, but I used to like MSU.* 

3. Deshaun Hand, Najee Harris, Damien Harris, etc.  (At least we got Daxton Hill)

4. Saban has had such a talent advantage at Alabama that it hardly seems fair.

5. I question how he got the talent advantage.  Bama had crazy talent when Brady dismantled them in the 2000 Orange Bowl, but it has been a couple standard deviations away.  It is hard to explain that away.

I wish there was a way to show that Nick Saban only performed as well or worse than was expected given his talent levels.  (Same with Urban Meyer, Ryan Day, Kirby Smart and Dabo Swinney)

Blue@LSU did this fantastic post:  Team talent and results: who gets more with less and less with more? where he compares on field performance for 2023 with talent.   He does one for elite talent and results and another one for good talent and results.  

I'd love to see this based on coaches overall performance through time.  It is a lot of work so I don't actually expect it to happen, but it would be cool to see.  It would normalize rebuilds and talent levels, etc.  My guess is that Saban is a good but not great coach.  

His record:

MSU-had a ~.500 record performance until he had a 9-2 season and then bolted for LSU.  The 9-2 team had 11 guys that played in the NFL including TJ Duckett and Plaxico Burress.  #of NFL guys each year,  6, 8, 8, 9, 11

LSU- had 3-5 losses every year except for the National Championship season where he had one loss. (13-1)   He went 11-9 versus ranked teams (top 25) with 5 of those victories coming in the 2013 national championship year.  #of NFL guys each year  13,17,15, 20, 20

Dolphins--he was awful.  15-17.  Adds credence to the idea that he is average without a talent advantage.

Alabama--7-6 his first year and then like a ~.900+ winning percentage over 16 years. 37-13 versus top 10 opponents.  Unmatched in the history of college football.  # of NFL guys each year 14, 21, 24, 23, 27, 24, 27, 29, 44!, 38, 47!, 38  (I stopped in 2018)

I got the NFL players through counting the shields on the sports-reference.com site.**  I'm guessing if you graph out the relative talent to his teams' performance in the blue@LSU method or as a linear regression, he'll be right where you would expect him to be. 

 

* Used to like MSU.  My mom and uncle went there and I knew a few MSU players over the years.  James Moore, Tico and TJ Duckett and Allen Haller.  I also played against Rob Fredrickson. 

**For comparison, 2016 Michigan had 28 NFL shields. 2017 32  2018  33  1997 Michigan had 19 NFL shields.   These NFL numbers don't take into account that not all NFL players are equal. Many of the Alabama NFL guys went in the first round.  

Gob Wilson

January 11th, 2024 at 2:01 PM ^

A quote from Connellly's ESPN article:

"It used to be that good defense beats good offense," he [Saban] told ESPN's Chris Low in 2020. "Good defense doesn't beat good offense anymore. [...] It used to be if you had a good defense, other people weren't going to score. You were always going to be in the game. I'm telling you, it ain't that way anymore."

Hmmm...tell that to the Huskies. But I agree, Saban is the GOAT!

softshoes

January 11th, 2024 at 1:55 PM ^

Count the rings. He's the greatest. You can get all the talent in the world you still have to coach them.

If he were at Texas AM they would have multiple trophies.

Vasav

January 11th, 2024 at 2:10 PM ^

True but, even tho 2020 was asterisky, Alabama just paved over everyone that year in a way that isn't COVID related and that I don't think we've seen from a team since...I was going to say the '01 Canes but they had a couple of competitive games. So not 15-0 but kind of an equivalent

Don

January 11th, 2024 at 2:03 PM ^

College coaches have been bending the rules in all kinds of ways forever, including financial inducements, fake jobs, and bending/ignoring academic standards.

Only a few of those cheaters have won NCs, and nobody as many as Saban did in the modern era. He's been a tremendous coach.

Was he really a better coach than Bryant or Royal or Wilkinson or Parseghian or McKay, just to name a few other greats? I don't know, but the results sort of speak for themselves.

GoBlueTal

January 11th, 2024 at 2:08 PM ^

I often make the argument against whiners early this season that we, 'hadn't played anybody' that a team can only play the team in front of them.  Win your games.  So that said, Saban played with the players he had and against the opponents he had, and won his games, good on him.

That said, do I think Barry Bonds or Mark McGwire are the greatest home run hitters of all time?  No, sorry, they had an extra boost that wasn't supposed to be used.  It's very easy to say the lack of NCAA oversight on paying players (and the SEC deliberately protecting the schedules of it's top teams) gave Saban an edge - and I don't have proof.  Still, I don't think it's any coincidence that formal opening of NIL and the sudden come-to-earth of the SEC happened simultaneously.  'Bama's still Bama, and they're going to be good, but when Bama's not the big bag anymore, they'll prove to be just another top school.  

Saban will never be the, "GOAT" coach of college football to me.  A good coach, and all due respect for taking care of the opponents in front of him, but dude had a stool to stand on that much of the rest of the country didn't; it sure makes it easier to stand tallest.

JacquesStrappe

January 12th, 2024 at 12:52 AM ^

Sorry, but that’s sour grapes. He has the hardware and jewelry to prove it. Even assuming he had a talent advantage, having great talent doesn’t always translate into on-field success. You still need to develop talent and then provide a scheme that suits it to realize success. If talent were everything Texas, USC, Ohio State, LSU, Georgia, and Texas A&M should have been running toe-to-toe with Bama every year. While this sometimes was the case, more of often than not Bama was head-and-shoulders better in most years.

GoBlueTal

January 12th, 2024 at 9:57 AM ^

Is Nick Saban one of the best coaches of his era?  Sure, is he in the discussion for the all timer, fine.  I don't accept his "hardware and jewely" as an argument for the crown, because they're tainted, full stop.  His program broke the rules (though I can't prove it, I don't need to, this is my opinion based on what evidence I know to access).  So, you can imply sour grapes, but your argument for it is (in my never humble opinion) baseless, because his, "hardware and jewelry" is moot. 

He's got a great record in big games - but - look at Bama's schedule next year.  Their three biggest games are (probably) UGA, @LSU, and Oklahoma.  His opponents in the week's prior are bye, bye, Mercer...  It's a HELL of a lot easier to win games with 2 weeks to prepare, and one thing I'm very willing to give credit to Saban for is one of the best ever with lead time.  Still, next year's schedule is standard issue for the SEC.  Occasionally one of them will get the equivalent of a PSU->Maryland, but you'll never find a PSU->Maryland->OSU stretch, which is, frankly, _NORMAL_ for M.  You'll point back to my original statement, play the team in front of you.  Valid, but when one has ESPN, the SEC, and the NCAA all putting their thumbs on the scale in your favor, and then having the gall to tell me the scales are equal, my ability to credit the bologna is limited.

So...  Is Nick Saban a good coach, yes.  Is he the greatest of all time?  I don't think so, because of incomplete data.  He was merely good at MSU, he was bad to very bad in the NFL.  When the scales weren't crooked, he was at best, a good coach.  The end.  

Swayze Howell Sheen

January 11th, 2024 at 2:20 PM ^

Eh he’s pretty obviously one of the best of all time. I used to dislike him but then heard his players talk after the Michigan game. Seemed like great kids; he must be doing something right. 

maizenblue92

January 11th, 2024 at 2:25 PM ^

There are always guys on twitter who try to diminish all of Tom Brady's Super Bowls to say he isn't the GOAT and this post reads like that. Hate to break it to you but winning with more talent doesn't diminish what Saban has done because talent acquisition is part of the job description of being a college football head coach. 

Nickel

January 11th, 2024 at 2:28 PM ^

I mean Michigan and OSU have (for decades) had a significant talent disparity relative to the rest of the B1G, I don't think that diminishes what any of our coaches have done so I'd hardly hold that against Saban.

I'm 44 so there was obviously an era of modern college football before me, but to me there's no question he's the greatest college coach of the time that I've observed and I don't think it's particularly close.

CLord

January 11th, 2024 at 2:33 PM ^

Bottom line is recruiting is part of the job description, so while we can debate if he was the best strategic coach, there is no question that if you look at the entire package required to win NC's, which includes drawing in the best recruits in a way that prevented him from drawing smoke from whatever dubious means were used by Bama bagmen, he is peerless at this time.

GoBlueTal

January 11th, 2024 at 2:54 PM ^

I don't understand how Michigan can go through "cheeseburgers" and sign-gate compared to North Carolina or Kansas or 'Bama and someone can say that Saban is "peerless"  - dude stood taller because he had a leg up and the NCAA helping him/putting their thumb on other programs.  Pete Carroll wasn't "great" at USC, he cheated, full stop.  Props that he won his games, and I'm not interested in taking anything away from people's trophy cases, the past is the past, but, "peerless"?!?  The only peerless to be argued is whether he cheated better than the other cheaters and/or got more help from ESPN and the NCAA than did others.  

He won, good on him, but "best coach" is laughable at best.

Harball sized HAIL

January 11th, 2024 at 3:46 PM ^

Hard to argue with the record they've had since he got there.  And with recency bias he will be considered GOAT - for now.

But you could argue that Bama was already a major brand and had legendary coaches that built their program.  The foundation was always there.  Add in how the SEC teams, and Bama certainly no execption - skirted rules for decades while the NCAA "enforcers" just looked the other way.  Even when grits topped with cheese were involved.

And saying that you could make the argument that Bobby Bowden, again somewhat recency bias, built an unknown into a powerhouse for 3+ decades.  

NittanyFan

January 11th, 2024 at 4:50 PM ^

Saban doesn't get nearly enough credit for his MSU run, in my opinion.

In 1999, MSU went 10-2, with victories over 5 different teams (ND, U-M, OSU, PSU, Florida*) that were among the 13 winningest programs over the decade of the 1990s.

That was a heck of a year for MSU.  The year prior, they beat a powerhouse OSU team in Columbus.  The year before that, they had multi-touchdown wins over very good ND and PSU teams.  

Saban's MSU teams were a bit inconsistent, they'd lose some games they shouldn't have (and, well, that happened at Alabama too, if we're being honest, strange losses to the likes of Ole Miss and Texas A&M).  But they tended to over-achieve versus the big boys.

Shoot: even his one year at Toledo.  Won a MAC Title right away, they weren't particularly good before or after him (it took Gary Pinkel several years to build them up through the 1990s).

Point being, it's not just LSU & Alabama.  Saban was damn good at ALL FOUR of his college football stops.

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* Bobby Williams was technically the coach for the Florida game (Citrus Bowl), but that was Saban's program.

Blue@LSU

January 11th, 2024 at 6:13 PM ^

Thanks for the shoutout, WestQuad. I've been thinking about another data project and this looks like a fun one. I just need a way to either aggregate multiple years of data into a single score or find a way to present multiple data points without it being too crowded. (If anyone has any suggestions, I'd be happy to read them). It's the start of the semester, so it might take me a week or so to put it together. 😊

Like a lot of people here said, I think he's pretty clearly a great coach. But I also think it's a valid question to wonder whether/how much he performed above what would be expected given the composition of his rosters. 

WestQuad

January 12th, 2024 at 12:45 AM ^

Love your stuff.  Saban is clearly a great coach, but I think there needs to be a control for the talent level like in your other work mentioned above.  It is especially important when we know that schools like FSU are offering recruits $15k/month to choose their program.  OSU won a bidding war for Jeremiah smith and lost one to Miami for Justin Scott.  Harbaugh wants players paid out in the open not just because he cares about players, but because he knows that the Sabans, Swinneys and Smarts are all doing it under the table for the super stars.  Saban and Urban Meyer are great coaches but the claim of GOAT should take talent into consideration as these guys are most likely cheating.   Calling Saban the GOAT without it makes the ends justify the means.   Society needs rules and ethics dammit!