CFFP Thought Exercise and Rooting Interest
What's your take on how the championships and playoffs could favorably play out should Michigan win this weekend?
For anyone interested in the thought exercise, here's what I think my rooting interest would be:
1) Iowa over rubber match with Wisconsin in the championship.
2) Cincy to beat Houston in AAC championship. Would want them in the 2 or 3 spot.
3) Georgia to beat Alabama and kick them out of playoffs consideration.
4) Oklahoma St loses again so they don't jump Notre Dame.
CFFP Prediction given above - Georgia, Cincy, Mich, ND for playoffs
I think Notre Dame has the most balanced team to take on Georgia should they play in the 4 spot. I also think Wisconsin is a ? breathing dragon right now. Cincy has looked decent, but mistake ridden in a few recent games.
November 24th, 2021 at 10:36 AM ^
I honestly do wonder if given your scenario, would OSU make it in at 4 over Notre Dame? If Michigan-OSU is a really close game and everything else you said happens, I could see the committee finally putting in a 2-loss team over a 1-loss Notre Dame who beat NOBODY and lost their only tough game.
November 24th, 2021 at 10:40 AM ^
A 2-loss team has yet to make the playoff, correct? I don't see that changing this year. Unless Bama loses to Auburn then beats Georgia.
November 24th, 2021 at 10:43 AM ^
Correct, a 2-loss team has never made it. I just really don't want to see Notre Dame get in at 4 after playing a super easy schedule and skating by. Especially given their recent track record in the playoff.
November 24th, 2021 at 1:49 PM ^
It's only a matter time though. A two-loss team made the BCS title game when it was two teams. Sooner than later a team will make the CFP with two losses. And if Cinci losses, very good chance Bama makes it this year with two losses.
November 24th, 2021 at 10:44 AM ^
That was my thought too. Interestingly, ND and OSU wouldn't play a championship, but Alabama would. I think OSU would have better wins, and both better strength of record and strength of schedule than ND.
If anything, Alabama might be the 4? Which would be really odd playing the same team twice back to back
November 24th, 2021 at 10:53 AM ^
There's precedent to not bring a P5 Championship Game winner to the CFP. And PSU fans will tell you all about it. LOL!! But, not with 2 losses. If chaos ensues to where everybody has 2 losses except UGA, UM, and UC, then Alabama will get first consideration and OSU would get sloppy seconds.
Unfortunately, if ND also only has 1 loss, they will get in before any 2-loss teams are looked at.
November 24th, 2021 at 11:01 AM ^
Lots of permutations.
If Georgia beats Bama it's likely Georgia, OSU/UM - (if they win the CCG) Cinci (if they beat Houston) OK state if they beat (Oklahoma and win the CCG)
If Bama beats Georgia it's likely, Bama, OSU/UM - (if they win the CCG), Georgia, Cinci (if they beat Houston)
Things can go sideways if If Georgia beats Bama, Cinci losses, Wisconsin wins and OK state losses.
At that point a 2 loss team will surely get in it will probably be Georgia, ND, Bama, OSU.
November 24th, 2021 at 12:01 PM ^
I mean I hate ND as much as the next guy. But I feel like the weakness of their schedule is overblown?
they blew out wisconsin
beat a Purdue team that beat two top 5 teams
Had unc and uva, who were both supposed to be good this season
also had FSU and usc who you can normally expect to be decent.
only lost to cincy who is slated to be in the playoffs currently
i don’t know that our schedule was that demonstrably harder up till now
November 24th, 2021 at 1:05 PM ^
I don't know how you can really use any of your points other than the loss to Cincy being a good loss.
"Blew out Wisconsin" -- They were losing late in the game and then got a kickoff return TD and two defensive TDs to blow it open and make it look a lot worse than it was. Purdue is hot and cold this year, solid win but not anything crazy impressive (especially with the game being at home. UNC and UVA may have both had high expectations, but reality is neither team is that good. Again FSU and USC could have high expectations, but in reality they aren't good teams. It doesn't matter what you can normally expect or what pre-season expectations were.
Michigan actually did blow out Wisconsin and it was on the road instead of Neutral site. Michigan also beat Nebraska in a tough environment and Nebraska is probably the best 3-8 team ever (they're ahead of MSU in the SP+ rankings lol). Michigan also beat Penn State on the road who's better than almost anyone Notre Dame beat. And Michigan's loss is probably about equal to Notre Dame's loss when you factor in home/road.
November 24th, 2021 at 1:07 PM ^
FSU hasnt been good for years. UNC was supposed to be but have clearly underperformed. You don't get points for "are normally good"
Committee values wins over ranked teams and they only have 1 really good quarter over a Wisconsin team that isn't the same team as when they beat them and worked their way back into the rankings after starting 1-3.
Losing to Cincy isn't bad per se, but it's still a loss to a G5 team, at home.
Purdue's top 5 wins were teams that we also now know were frauds and both are likely to up 9-3, which is good, but doesn't scream Top 5.
November 24th, 2021 at 5:50 PM ^
Purdue beat two top 5 teams, yet they're unranked. What does that tell you?
November 24th, 2021 at 1:46 PM ^
Definitely not OSU over Notre Dame. If there can be an argument for a two loss team over ND it would be Bama in this scenario. That would be close. OSU would be ranked 6th though with two losses, at best. They just wouldn't have beaten enough good teams (MSU and maybe PSU will be the only team(s) ranked at the end of the season that they will have beaten) and that's not going to overcome two losses.
November 24th, 2021 at 10:44 AM ^
No. Root for Oklahoma State to win out so they jump Notre Dame. To hell with Notre Dame.
November 24th, 2021 at 10:45 AM ^
Lol, that's a fair point!
November 24th, 2021 at 10:49 AM ^
To hell with Notre Dame. Under no circumstances do I ever want to see them win another game for as long as I live.
November 24th, 2021 at 10:51 AM ^
I feel that a 1 loss Okla St. that just beat #10 OU and #8 Baylor in the Big 12 Title game or a 1 loss OU that just beat #7Okla St and #8 Baylor for the Big 12 Title, would get in over the Irish.
November 24th, 2021 at 11:06 AM ^
I think if Cincinnati somehow loses, that hurts ND. Right now, their only loss is to a top 4 team. If Cincy loses, they probably drop a good bit.
I think the ideal scenario, obviously with Michigan winning out would be Georgia beating Bama.
That would create enough space for Michigan to get out of the 4 spot. Luke Fickell vs Jim Harbaugh would be interesting and I think ratings would be high to see if Cincinnati can hang with the elites. That would likely put Oklahoma State (if they win out) or ND if the Pokes falter at 4 to get eaten alive by Georgia.
Chaos could very likely ensue. Michigan beats OSU but loses the CCG, Cincinnati drops the AAC title game, Ok State beats Oklahoma in Bedlam but loses to Baylor, and Georgia suffocates Alabama. Now you have Georgia, 1 loss ND, 1 loss Cincy and a lot of 2 loss teams.
November 24th, 2021 at 10:51 AM ^
Personally I think if OK St. wins the Big 12 they are in no question, even if Alabama were to upset Georgia or we win a close one over OSU. If Oklahoma wins the Big 12 they might be less of a sure thing even with one loss because several of their wins were closer than they 'should' have been. So I don't see ND making it unless Cinci loses and both the SEC and Big 10 produce clear champions (ie. not close games where a 2nd team could be considered).
November 24th, 2021 at 10:58 AM ^
“Georgia, Cincy, Mich, ND for playoffs” I like this order. The outcomes being:
GA 38 ND 21 and Mich 42 Cincy 21
November 24th, 2021 at 1:08 PM ^
There is not a chance in hell ND scores 21 against Georgia.
Otherwise, I agree lol
November 24th, 2021 at 10:58 AM ^
The real interesting question is if there is the potential for enough chaos to get Michigan in with a close loss.
The answer is a pretty likely no but let’s say Oklahoma beats Oklahoma state setting up a rematch in the championship game that Oklahoma state wins. Stanford somehow beats Nd (most unlikely part) and Houston (or even better ecu) beats cincy. At this point it’s guaranteed a 2 loss bama is getting in regardless as are osu and Georgia. But that 4th spot would be a bunch of random 2 loss teams and 1 loss cincy.
November 24th, 2021 at 11:04 AM ^
That's awesome. I had not considered that scenario.
November 24th, 2021 at 11:06 AM ^
Michigan wouldn't get in with a loss. Our best win would be maybe Wisconsin?
Baylor would probably get in as they have wins over at the time 14th ranked ISU, 19th BYU, 8 Oklahoma, which in your projection would be a top 3 team.
November 24th, 2021 at 11:09 AM ^
We look very good* to the advanced metrics, which the committee is clearly using.
*In that we are the clear fourth best team, though well back of the top two.
November 24th, 2021 at 11:48 AM ^
Sure, but that would require Baylor to jump us immediately this week. If Michigan loses 42-41 in overtime or something I don’t see us dropping 4 spots. I did say it’s unlikely but it would be wild to watch it all unfold
November 24th, 2021 at 10:59 AM ^
Man that is so tough.
Let's say we beat OSU and Alabama wins this weekend. Does Alabama go to 2, and we go to 3? Or other way around? If Michigan wins and Alabama wins, I could see the top 6 being next week being(assuming oklahoma beats oklahoma state.
Georgia, Alabama, Michigan, Cincinnati, ND, OSU.
Georgia beats Alabama in a close game? I could see Alabama coming in at 4 for the final rankings. Cincinnati wins out, they are in. If Oklahoma state wins, they deserve to be in. This really needs to be expanded to an 8 team playoff. Baylor deserves to be in but won't.
November 24th, 2021 at 11:03 AM ^
I think things we want are:
1) Ourselves, duh
2) Minnesota or Iowa is the easier matchup in the Big Ten title game. Obviously we smoked Wisconsin but that was before their current RB and they figured their stuff out on offense. Hard to beat the same team twice, so it'd be better for us if it's not them.
3) Georgia to beat Alabama, because I would rather not play Georgia in the semifinal (I think 12-1 Georgia is the #3 seed over Cinci) and as you say knock out Alabama.
November 24th, 2021 at 11:07 AM ^
One thing looking at these scenarios emphasizes to me: how f'ing stupid the BiG remains for the way they have aligned the conference. Best I can tell the one thing Cinci, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and ND have in common is they'd all have at least two losses in the BiG East.
November 24th, 2021 at 11:23 AM ^
Did you prefer the Legends/Leaders format that split the conference by top pair, 2nd pair, 3rd pair, etc.?
November 24th, 2021 at 11:45 AM ^
I was not a fan. It’s just disappointing that pretty much every year the second best Big Ten team is sitting home (this was even OSU in 2016), while a 3rd, 4th or 5th best team plays for a championship.
The knee jerk reaction is to do the Big 12 format, but even that would lead to unnecessary-feeling re-matches.
November 24th, 2021 at 11:19 AM ^
Cincy will not go to 2 or 3. I believe they are as high as they are going to get.
November 24th, 2021 at 11:22 AM ^
Depends on other results. They could get as high as two if the West winner wins the Big Ten and Oklahoma State loses Bedlam like they always lose Bedlam.
November 24th, 2021 at 11:29 AM ^
-- duplicate post --
November 24th, 2021 at 11:29 AM ^
That's an interesting take - do you think so even if they beat Houston?
November 24th, 2021 at 11:34 AM ^
The only thing standing between Ohio State and a national championship is Georgia.
November 24th, 2021 at 12:45 PM ^
That should be a 100K fake internet point deduction.
November 24th, 2021 at 12:24 PM ^
The most Michigan thing ever would be to beat OSU and then lose the conference championship game.
November 24th, 2021 at 5:53 PM ^
I’d take it
November 24th, 2021 at 12:39 PM ^
ND definitely does not have the most balanced team to take on Georgia. They haven’t played ANYONE. Got throughly beat by Cincy. I wouldn’t write off their night game at Stanford… Oregon found a way to lose in that spot and I don’t think ND is that much better than Oregon
November 24th, 2021 at 4:41 PM ^
ND is going to sneak in...which is BS. They have a BS schedule and no conference title game. Bama will lose in the SEC title game...giving them 2 loses. Book it.