CFB teams ranked 1-130 based on pre-season expectations
I found 4 sources that ranked all 130 FBS teams. So, because I'm a nerd, I put them together to create a composite ranking. The sources:
- CBS Sports
- College Football News
- Pro Football Focus
- something called Versus Sports Simulator that I never heard of before, and I just realized it's based on a formula and I was intending of creating a composite of subjective rankings. Oh well.
Athlon also ranks every team 1-130, but they based their rankings on how they project each team to finish the season, not based on preseason expectations. So I didn't include it.
Also, I noticed that CFN shows quite a bit of P5 bias, especially compared to the other 3 rankings. They're really harsh on even the top contenders of the G5 conferences; yet show a lot of love, comparatively, to the slugs of the P5.
Click this link to view the Google sheet that shows the composite ranking of all 130 teams.
My real intention for doing this is to separate the teams by their respective conference/division to see the perceived pre-season expectations of each team within that context. But I don't know how to create a table or paste the data in the post in a way that would make it presentable and pretty, and I've been trying to mess with it for days. (And the sticky post about how to do stuff like that is no longer there.) So click on the Conferences tab on the Google sheet to see the 1-130 composite rankings sorted by conference/division. Here is a cruddier-looking synopsis (with composite 1-130 ranking):
B1G WEST
- Wisconsin 12
- Iowa 15
- Northwestern 32
- Minnesota 38
- Nebraska 55
- Purdue 65
- Illinois 82
B1G EAST
- Ohio St 3
- Penn St 18
- Indiana 24
- Michigan 27
- Michigan St 66
- Maryland 69
- Rutgers 84
The West Division shows a clear top 2, a clear 2nd pair, a 3rd pair, and then Poor Damn Illinois.
The East Division shows a huge disparity between the top 4 and the bottom 3. Never the twain shall meet.
How 'bout some MACTION?
MAC WEST
- Ball St 74
- Toledo 80
- Western Michigan 85
- Central Michigan 105
- Eastern Michigan 112
- Northern Illinois 123
MAC EAST
- Buffalo 76
- Miami 96
- Ohio 98
- Kent St 104
- Akron 128
- Bowling Green 129
A clear top 3 expected to compete in the West; Buffalo the favorite in the East along with 3 contenders and 2 rock-bottom awful teams.
MICHIGAN's non-conference opponents:
- WMU 85
- Washington 21 (2nd in PAC12 North)
- NIU 123
OHIO STATE's non-conference opponents:
- Oregon 9 (1st in PAC12 North)
- Tulsa 64 (5th of 11 in the AAC)
- Akron 128
MICHIGAN ST's non-conference opponents:
- Youngstown St (uh...NR)
- Miami (YTM) 20 (2nd in ACC Coastal)
- Western Kentucky 102 (3rd of 7 in C-USA East)
I could go on, but I'll stop here. It all looks much better on the spreadsheet. (It's got purty colors. I wish I could copy/paste from the spreadsheet here. But that would be too easy.)
August 12th, 2021 at 8:20 PM ^
Dammit for a buckeye, you're a pretty cool cat Chuck
August 13th, 2021 at 1:35 PM ^
Nerds aren't cool.
August 13th, 2021 at 6:01 PM ^
Now this is funny!
Checks Sharpie drawer that's empty.
On my way to Office Max.
August 12th, 2021 at 8:27 PM ^
Notre Dame, at #10, is probably rated too high.
Will Clemson really be good? Have they reloaded at QB?
I wonder how bad Illinois will be, if at all? Could Brett Bielema work magic there this year?
August 12th, 2021 at 8:50 PM ^
It's difficult to imagine Bielema working magic beyond the confines of a Buffalo Wild Wings, but who knows....
August 12th, 2021 at 9:21 PM ^
Bert hasn’t really shown the ability to work much magic since he left Wisconsin. Not too confident he’ll do much at Illinois
August 12th, 2021 at 9:40 PM ^
Clemson has earned “really good until proven otherwise to me” status.
August 13th, 2021 at 7:19 AM ^
Clemson's QB (I'm not going to try to spell his name) is pretty good and played well last season when Lawrence was out with covid. Their DL is again ridiculous and we all know how critical of a position group that is. I think Clemson will again be just fine.
August 12th, 2021 at 8:35 PM ^
Great job on this BC, very informative, but you did fail to show cross conference schedule. I have no room to talk shit here but your own sources puts SOS into perspective. I still don't get how we get Wisconsin 10 years in a row and OSU usually gets stat stuffer opponents.
August 12th, 2021 at 9:52 PM ^
You really don’t get how or was that rhetorical?
August 12th, 2021 at 10:13 PM ^
Not to be rhetorical, but your posts end in ?
August 13th, 2021 at 6:53 AM ^
Fair enough.
August 13th, 2021 at 9:13 AM ^
I agree that OSU seems to always have an easy SOS but I also wonder if they get penalized because they can't play themselves.
August 12th, 2021 at 9:20 PM ^
We're 17th in Connelly's SP+, so we've got that going for us, which is nice.
August 12th, 2021 at 9:53 PM ^
But we play 4 of the top 13 and like 8 of the top 30 right?
August 12th, 2021 at 11:14 PM ^
Nope. Not right. It’s 2 of the top 13. And 6 of the top 30.
Unless I’m missing something?
August 13th, 2021 at 6:53 AM ^
I’m too lazy to look it up but i thought OSU Wisconsin psu and Washington were all top 13 in the SP
August 14th, 2021 at 5:54 AM ^
Correct. I think people talking about those as guaranteed losses are ridiculous, but those are some tough games. Indiana is the next toughest according to SP+ at 28.
August 12th, 2021 at 9:24 PM ^
Quality post. Thanks for this.
August 12th, 2021 at 10:01 PM ^
If Harbaugh didn't have the NFL history and wasn't an alum, he'd be fired if he didn't contend for the conference title this year. No way a Rich Rod or Hoke could come in here, go 0-5 against OSU and only contend for a title twice, and be give this free ride. Harbaugh's seat should be very hot, or else, Michigan football is content with mediocrity.
August 12th, 2021 at 10:10 PM ^
Mediocrity and being "safe" is very much in vogue now.
August 12th, 2021 at 10:46 PM ^
If he doesn't contend this year and doesn't beat OSU, he will be fired by December. I don't know why this remains unclear to people. He was allowed to keep his job at basically half-salary. That's not a vote of confidence; it's a vote of very little confidence.
August 12th, 2021 at 10:53 PM ^
What is clear is he’s got two years, not one.
How else would he have been able to hire the assistants he did?
August 12th, 2021 at 11:02 PM ^
I was outspoken last season since the MSU debacle against Harbaugh coming back this year. But now that he is here for another season I am rooting like hell for him to succeed. I want nothing more (from a sports perspective) than to feel the excitement again of his first few seasons, but this time finally beating his nemesis down south.
August 12th, 2021 at 11:17 PM ^
Mack - You are so wrong. I don’t know how that is unclear. Michigan wouldn’t be able to revamp the staff without some assurance that Harbaugh would be around at LEAST 2 years.
And it wouldn’t have made sense for Michigan to go that route if it was a one year or else scenario.
PS - The whole “lower buy out” thing was always going to happen. It’s SOP for the buyout to reduce significantly each year. As for base pay, I believe that can be made up for in incentives. Harbaugh is betting on himself.
August 12th, 2021 at 11:40 PM ^
Harbaugh had no choice…no NFL team showed interest and he was coming off a terrible season. He would’ve entered this season as a lame duck coach and that would’ve hurt recruiting and the program as a whole. So this extension was used to give him a shield when he goes out on the trail to tell kids he’ll be here a while. But in actuality if he doesn’t perform, he’ll be gone.
As far as the assistants, it’s all about belief that things could be turned around this season. They believe in their own abilities as coaches and if they could be sold on the team as a whole that is enough for some of them to come aboard.
August 13th, 2021 at 8:42 AM ^
Totally disagree. That is not Warde's style. I believe he's giving him a bona fide second chance as his odds are just about as good as anyone else that they would bring in and have to overhaul the staff.
He's assembled some excellent coaches in Bellamy, Hart, Clinkscale and hopefully MacDonald and Weiss.
His biggest mistake is not making sure that he's recruiting and developing the QB position. We've had some pretty good talent at that position the last few years, but it has not progressed. I have to believe that Harbaugh and even more so Weiss have to be successful in this dept more than any other aspect on this team this year.
August 13th, 2021 at 12:24 AM ^
RichRod or Hoke would still be here if they had the record Harbaugh has. Sometimes, I think we forget how bad it really was under those guys.
RichRod/Hoke: 7 Seasons -- 46-42, 1 top 20 finish
Harbaugh: 6 Seasons -- 49-22, 4 top 20 finishes, two NY6 bowl games
The program is in a better state now than at any point from 2008-2014. It just sucks that OSU is recruiting at unprecedented levels for this conference.
August 13th, 2021 at 1:09 AM ^
Hoke did pull out an 11 win season in 2011, something Harbaugh has not been able to accomplish.
Let's forget about OSU. Why aren't we consistently crushing MSU? The talent gap between us and OSU is similar to us and MSU. Yet OSU pants us every year and MSU beats us half the time and always plays us close.
August 14th, 2021 at 5:58 AM ^
"Hoke did pull out an 11 win season in 2011" Yes, which shows just how terrible the program got under him considering it was all downhill from there. Sure, Harbaugh should have a better record against OSU and MSU, but those MSU teams absolutely embarrassed Hoke teams.
August 13th, 2021 at 7:35 AM ^
The "we have to beat osu or get fired" mantra is wearing thin. They are as elite as they have ever been in their very successful history. Most teams have not beat osu in the last decade, so why should we be any different? They are up there with Bama and Clemson and then there is a huge dropoff to the next tier of teams.
They have historically out-recruited Michigan. Since Urban arrived, the recruiting gap has grown significantly in their favor and has stayed on that trajectory today. For now, I don't know why anyone's expectation should be that we should win that game or be fired. We are not beating them anytime soon. I think over the long haul, the parity in the series will come back to what it was, but for the near-term it is still going to be ugly, no matter who coaches Michigan.
August 13th, 2021 at 12:48 PM ^
Here you've underscored my point (in which I'm making what to me is a logical inference, not a qualitative judgment) that not beating OSU in 7 years is settling for mediocrity. If Harbaugh is retained under these parameters, then the athletic dept. is content with this. OSU's status as juggernaut isn't relevant to the expectations of the athletics dept. And I would also argue that OSU is not the juggernaut you assert. In Harbaugh's tenure they have won zero national titles, played in one Nat'l title game. Urban was beaten twice by MSU, once by PSU and blown off the field by Iowa and Purdue. That's not Alabama or Clemson level of dominance. They're just a lot better than a relatively middling B1G. Michigan should expect to contend for conference titles every year.
August 13th, 2021 at 3:49 PM ^
And you've basically just listed most of OSU's losses since 2013. They are absolutely a juggernaut. They have lost 12 games since Fickell was replaced by Urban. Why do you think Michigan should be on par with that? I have been a rabid fan since the mid 70's and Michigan has never dominated at that clip. And who do you think can get the program to that level? The expectation from this fan base is just not rooted in reality.
August 14th, 2021 at 1:12 PM ^
Yes, OSU has been very good. But if they are a juggernaut, then what are Alabama and Clemson, who are clearly a cut above OSU over the same period? Urban lost 5 conference games in 7 years. Bo lost 5 conference games in 7 years from 1971-77. Were we a juggernaut over those years to the point where OSU should have lowered their own expectations? OSU is more like 90's Boise State in the WAC, in that they dominate their own conference definitively.
As to who can get UM over the hump, I have no idea. But it's not a single person, it's a system from top to bottom, including recruiting, hiring, retention, etc. OSU has redefined what a football program is for them. It is an all-out effort that does not settle for mediocrity. UM is a different kind of school. Perhaps it's Harbaugh after all. There are certainly people who rebuilt programs for years before they really turned the corner into an elite program- Dabo Swinney most recently. It took John Wooden 16 years to win his first title at UCLA.
Again I'm not making a qualitative judgment, I'm making an inference about the long leash Harbaugh has been given as the prodigal son and Super Bowl coach. These are probably earned, at least with the latter. But it's thin ice, going on 15 years of relative mediocrity.
August 12th, 2021 at 11:42 PM ^
Never the twain shall meet.
So what you are saying is that when I get the chance to meet Shania Twain she will say
You are on a roll, Chuck. Thanks
August 13th, 2021 at 1:40 PM ^
No, dude. Mark Twain.
August 13th, 2021 at 2:22 PM ^
Well …. At least we are ahead of MSU … for now.