CFB Risk Day 29 – Leave the Gun. Take the Cannoli.

Pre-Recap Announcements:

• Here are the ways for how you can choose your level of involvement with the team – use only one method within the same turn:
  • Michigan Rebel Base:If you would like to see/discuss overall strategy and choose your daily mission from a list of approved targets, use the Discord link (https://discord.gg/DRQyjp56kP)
    • Note: if already using Discord, please do not change to another method.
  • If you want a simple order to follow without overthinking or hassle, use the new orders distribution website (http://www.whataremyorders.com/). 
  • For any new players or those that want to “go rogue” (or are having problems getting access to orders through the other options), feel free to hit any of these territories tonight to help the cause!
    • Morgantown (West Virginia)
    • Akron (Ohio)
    • Pittsburg (Pennsylvania)
    • Hocking Hills (Ohio)
    • Happy Valley (Pennsylvania)

 

“We’re going to the mattresses.” – some guy

The last guy standing isn’t always the one in best position halfway through… but it is the one who is willing to fight and grind through the hard parts in the middle.  The last week or so has seen some hits against us; from opponent “bot-bumps”, to deceptive offers of alliance, to some absolutely ridiculous bad luck… we’ve seen it all.  And we’re still here – not just fighting but still growing in size and strength.  Like a family.. and you never go against the family.  We’ll be making our move soon.

About that “bad luck”… Michigan has had the *worst* luck in terms of statistical results the last two turns (and a few not so great ones before that); both of which resulted in losing a number of territories that “should” have been wins for us.   Many of these, especially in Canada, were places that we had an 80% chance of winning or greater… yet lost several.  If this is all truly random luck, we should see some rolls going our way soon.  “Should.”  On the plus side, here are the players that were able to earn MVPs last night – earning territories for the team in the process:

                                  

Well done – free drinks when we retake Ann Arbor (talk to the team leadership about who’s buying).

We are currently in 4th place, behind A&M, osu and Georgia Tech by territory count.  The final “winner” for this game is the team holding the most number of territories when the clock strikes zero on Day 45.  The game is about to enter the final quarter and teams not named Texas A&M are starting to get desperate to be in a position to win… and they are going into action across the board.

Fortunately Michigan is *still* the most powerful team in the game in terms of participation and raw power and has done a reasonable job of maintaining that position, as you can see in these convenient plots:

You might have noticed that the very-real-and-not-at-all-suspicious “recruiting” bump on Day 25 that osu had just before the ReCaptcha was mandated has still failed to rematerialize.  Nothing to see here, of course.

Anyway… we need to continue our growth to stay ahead in this game so if you haven't already - get involved!  If you already have, the get *someone else* involved!  Recruiting. Matters.

Here is the boilerplate information on regions again:

A quick explanation of “regions”, since we will be discussing them more and more going forward:

The game is moving into phases where teams will be competing to control entire “regions”, which are groupings of adjacent territories.  The map is divided into twenty regions, as shown below.  Just like in the classic Risk game, there are incentives to control whole regions – but in this game it is a mathematical bonus to *all* attack/defend odds in favor of teams holding regions (those bonuses are not limited to actions taken within held regions – they apply everywhere).

Controlling regions is good.  Preventing opponents from controlling regions is also good.

Got it?  Good.  Here is why it matters:

Those region bonus multipliers can make all the difference in this game; the right side of the chart shows what the adjusted stars are (with bonus effects included) – these are the stars that are actually going into battle today.  Here is where the negatives from last night can be seen.  osu was able to get one region under control while A&M just got their fifth region and is looking ready to spread across the board.  If only someone had warned the other teams that this could be a problem…  Meanwhile the osu partisans amusingly heap praises upon their leadership team - as though declaring NAPs with literally every other team on the board save one is some kind of strategic coup.  You can't win the game if you don't fight to be in 1st.

 

This would be a good time to have a high level view of the war: some way to visualize how things are progressing... like a map (now with added region boundaries and sea-routes, for your viewing pleasure).

Revenge is a dish best served cold.

News from the fronts:

• Canada: osu, Wisconsin and Georgia Tech all attacking around the edges while we hold the center.
• Pacific NW:  Mostly Wisconsin and osu for now – we still hold Alaska.
• US East coast:  osu in the center and Georgia Tech in the north and south.  Alabama moving into New England.
• Greater Midwest: Almost exclusively osu vs Michigan - still.  Shocking result that no one could have foreseen, to be sure.
• US Southeast: Activity!  After only 28 days!  Tennessee has declared war on Alabama and something might actually happen now!  Winner gets to be eaten by GT, osu or A&M.
• US Rockies & West coast: Oklahoma, Iowa State, Texas and Nebraska.. all trying not to be the last to die between Wisconsin and the expanding A&M DEATH STAR.
• US Southwest & Mexico:  AGGIE DEATH STAR just got stronger.
• Caribbean: osu and GT battling for the islands while the DEATH STAR slowly moves in.

A final reminder: it is strongly recommended to join the Michigan Discord server and coordinate with our friendly team leaders for assignments/orders, but the new orders website is also a good option.  This is how to *most effectively* use your attack & defend moves to get us closer to actually winning the game.  However… fighting for your school, your team and your home is always a good thing, even if you have your own ideas about how to do that.  In the end, it’s still a game and the purpose is to have fun.

CFB Risk Top 25 Team Standings

We are now down to 11 surviving teams in the game from the original 130, with some not likely to last much longer.  Final rankings are beginning to take shape.  Here is where they stand thus far (teams are ranked by # of territories first, followed by a mix of metrics examining how efficiently they used their players & stars:

1.    Texas A&M (54 territories)

2.    (an) Ohio State (42 territories)

3.    Georgia Tech (31 territories)

4.    Michigan (21 territories)

5.    Wisconsin (11 territories)

6.    Tennessee (6 territories)

7.    Alabama (6 territories)

8.    Nebraska (4 territories)

9.    Texas (3 territories)

10.  Iowa State (2 territories)

11.  Oklahoma (2 territories)

12.  LSU (killed Day 26)

13.  Florida (killed Day 24)

14.  Oregon (killed Day 23)

15.  Hawaii (killed Day 18)

16.  Stanford (killed Day 16)

17.  USC (killed Day 14)

18.  Washington (killed Day 13)

19.  Georgia (killed Day 12)

20.  Notre Dame (killed Day 11)

21.  Virginia Tech (killed Day 11)

22.  UCF (killed Day 11)

23.  Minnesota (killed Day 10)

24.  Baylor (killed Day 10)

25.  South Carolina (killed Day 10)

 

So remember to drink your Ovaltine, submit your move before 10:30pm tonight and have fun storming the castle!

 

Steps To Play Every Day

(1) Sign up for a reddit.com account if you don’t have one already

(2) Visit collegefootballrisk.com – Click Sign in with Reddit – Select Michigan as your team

3) Join the Michigan Risk discord by going to https://discord.gg/DRQyjp56kP (this is now a permanent link, so there should not be problems accessing it) OR (get your orders from http://www.whataremyorders.com/. Don't do both)

(4) Go to the "vetting" channel and type in your MGoBlog username and Reddit username.

(5) Once vetted, get your orders from the "orders" channel.

(6) Return to collegefootballrisk.com – Click on the blinking "target" icon at the bottom of the page (3rd button from the right), and then click on the territory you're attacking or defending.

(7) Talk trash with your fellow Wolverines as we prepare for tonight's roll.

How Does the Game Work?

It is up to each team to recruit players and coordinate moves. You can choose to defend any territory that your team currently holds or attack any adjacent territory. A "roll" happens each evening to calculate which teams have won which territories that turn based on the moves that were made by individual players. The ultimate goal is to conquer as much of the map as possible for your team. There are a number of different ways to do this, such as through recruiting players in sheer numbers or forming alliances with other teams.

 

Previous Recaps

Day 0 intro: College Football Risk is BACK - Season 3 is now LIVE!

Day 1 recap: College Risk Again!!! Sign up.... 1st in the books!

Day2 recap: No update

Day 3 recap: No update

Day 4 recap: CFB Risk Day 4: IT BEGINS

Day 5 recap: CFB Risk Day 5 - And THIS is Why They Nerfed Us

Day 6 recap: CFB Risk Day 6 - This Feels a Lot Like Real Life (Sparty Gon' Die)

Day 7 recap: CFB Risk Day 7 - F*cking Sparty (They Still Gon' Die)

Day 8 recap: CFB Risk Day 8 - WE NEED YOU TO AVENGE THE ORANGE BOWL (also, sparty's dead)

Day 9 recap: CFB Risk Day 9 - We Kicked Georgia Out of the North -- Now We Go South

Day 10 recap: CFB Risk Day 10 – The King in the North! (also, sorry about that Penn State)

Day 11 recap: CFB Risk Day 11 – ANN ARBOR HAS BEEN TAKEN!! THIS IS NOT A DRILL!!

Day 12 recap: CFB Risk Day 12 – It’s Groundhog Day…again (also, Notre Dame is finally dead)

Day 13 recap: CFB Risk Day 13 – NOW I HAVE A MACHINE GUN HO-HO-HO

Day 14 recap: CFB Risk Day 14 – EPISODE XIV: THE AGGIE MENACE

Day 15 recap: CFB Risk Day 15 – You Come at the King, You Best Not Miss

Week 2 recap: CFB Risk Week 2 Recap - I'm Back....and I'm Annoyed

Day 16 recap: CFB Risk Day 16 – WELCOME TO THUNDERDOME, WISCONSIN

Day 17 recap: CFB Risk Day 17 – WISCONSIN ON THE RUN

Day 18 recap: CFB Risk Day 18 - No One Likes Us, We Don't Care

Day 19 recap: CFB Risk Day 19 – YO, LISTEN UP HERE’S A STORY ABOUT A LITTLE GUY WHO LIVES IN A BLUE WORLD

Day 20 recap:  CFB Risk Day 20 - The Michigan Rogue Force (Read for Orders)

Week 3 recap:  CFB Risk Week 3 Recap - Risk Bot! And I'm Seeing Boosted Stars

Day 21 recap:  CFB Risk Day 21 – WE’RE GOING IN. WE’RE GOING IN FULL THROTTLE.

Day 22 Recap: CFB Risk Day 22 – Third time’s a charm.

Day 23 Recap: CFB Risk Episode 23 - A New Hope: Last Night's Skywalker

Day 24 Recap: CFB Risk Episode 24 – DEEP IN THE HEART OF TEXAS (RIP Oregon)

Day 25 Recap: CFB Risk Episode 25 - In West Philadelphia, Born and Raised (F*ck OSU)

Day 26 (part 1) Recap:  CFB Risk Day 26* – EPISODE XXVI: ATTACK OF THE DRONES

Day 26 (part 2) Recap:  CFB Risk Episode $%*@....Error....Keanu Surprised Face....Verification Needed

Week 4 Recap: CFB Risk Week 4 Recap: Screw OSU and Its Clone Army

Day 27 Recap: CFB Risk Episode 27 – The first rule of Fight Club is…

Day 28 Recap: CFB Risk Day 28: It's Time to Prepare the Nukes