CC: How does publicity of our mega offer impact timing

Submitted by michgoblue on
I haven't seen any real discussion on this point in the threads (although I haven't read through all one million comments), but I am curious as to how the publication of our offer impacts the timing of when we can expect a firm yes / no from Harbaugh? I know that Brian previously said 12/29 at the earliest, and more likely right after the new year, but this seems like a game changer. With the offer out there, it seems to me that Harbaugh will likely feel some pressure to give an answer one way or the other in the next few days. Yes he has a season to finish, but at this point the season is effectively over. Nobody in San Fran could rationally begrudge him if he accepts the job this week, noting that he would begin his Michigan duties on 12/29, after the close of his season. Not all that different than a coach changing colleges but offering to stagy for the bowl game. So, in my view, if we don't hear anything in the next few days, this is a bad sign. Curious as to the views of other equally obsessed with this situation.
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M Squared

December 18th, 2014 at 7:26 AM ^

I completely agree with the OP on this.  It will not be a good sign if this goes past this upcoming Sunday night.  If you expect someone to make a decision on 12/29, it would not be typical to make the offer on 12/17.  Note that this situation is not like most other offer situations.  The real offer on the table is not 6 years for 49 million.  It's to be the head coach at Michigan plus 6 years for 49 million.  If you don't know that he is on board with the Michigan part, you don't put the financial terms on the table at all.    

No inside info, but I think that either (i) Harbaugh accepts very shortly or (ii) he is not coming and the publication of this offer is intended to show the alumni and fanbase that Hackett did the best he could.

 

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DCGrad

December 17th, 2014 at 11:13 PM ^

to say anything more than what he has been. Best case maybe it moves things up a week (after the week 16 game) but I don't expect him to quit on the season.

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ken725

December 17th, 2014 at 11:13 PM ^

I don't think it really changes the timeline. It seems like the only thing that can change the timeline is if the 49ers fire him before the end of the season.



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Swazi

December 17th, 2014 at 11:26 PM ^

If they offer more then itd officially make him the highest paid coach in the history of the sport. Michigan offered to make him the highest paid coach in the sport along with Sean Payton. JLC is a moron for actually believing Oakland offered Gruden double that, and that Gruden actually would turn that down.

If he did, that tells you all you need to know about how shitty the Raiders future is.



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Dallas Walmart…

December 17th, 2014 at 11:16 PM ^

but obviously the official offer will expire at some clearly defined time, so Michigan can move on if needed.  No idea when that is, but it would be interesting to know if, given the high dollar value of the offer, the offer expires before the NFL season is over (in an attempt to get him to commit before a true bidding war can start).  If so, that would be a bold (and risky) move by Hackett.  

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MainStreetMagic

December 17th, 2014 at 11:18 PM ^

Zero chance San Francisco keeps him on for the last two games if he accepts this week.  Hell, they may even trot York in front of a camera to give a "49ers Man" speech.  Oh the sweet, sweet irony. 

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Class of 1817

December 17th, 2014 at 11:23 PM ^

Everybody pretends it's nothing. Harbaugh tells the press he's focusing on his current team. After their last game, he accepts this within 48 hours.

Happy M New Year, everyone.

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Njia

December 17th, 2014 at 11:26 PM ^

I'm sure the Niners are going to want an answer as much as Michigan does. However, this offer puts more pressure on the Niners than even Harbaugh - sure, the ball is in Jim's court to decide, but it's the Niners who must assign some value to him and other NFL teams are going to have to figure out if he's worth at least $48M guaranteed in addition to whatever draft picks they're going to have to give up.

Look at it this way: economically, it's the equivalent of setting Round 3/4 draft picks at a value of $48M. Few NFL teams are going to take the Niners up on that deal.

For all of the "deal making" that GMs and agents like to do, they've run smack into a guy (Hackett) who really knows what the f-ck he's doing. The more I think about this offer, the more I think it hamstrings both the NFL teams as well as agents and - indirectly - Harbaugh himself.

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mich_engineer

December 17th, 2014 at 11:51 PM ^

[EDIT: Looked at history of past coach trades]

In prior trades for coaches, the team that the coach is leaving simply agreed to release a coach from his contract in exchange for draft picks, then negotiated a new deal with that coach.  I don't know enough about this - would that just declare open season on Harbaugh?

****

Indeed, it REALLY puts the pressure on NFL teams, for the following reason:

 

1. JH has an 1-year contract with San Francisco.  So, in order for SF to actually get anything in return, either a team must trade for the value of that 1 year deal, or SF must sign him to a longer deal prior to trading.  

2. What team is going to pony up for one year, knowing that JH can simply walk away before the ink is even dry?  Trade value to SF - nil.

3. SF can attempt to sign him to a multi-year deal, and then trade THAT contract to another team.  That would require SF to negotiate blindly - if they overshoot and there is no demand, they are stuck with an albatross.  If it is too little, there is no value.

4. SF can attempt to act as an intermediary - on one hand, ask Oakland what they want in a contract with Harbaugh, then relay that information to Harbaugh in an attempt to get a deal done.  But, why would any side trust each other in this situation?  Harbaugh would believe that Oakland and SF are colluding to knock down the value to him, and instead send value to SF; Oakland would believe that SF is screwing them to take a media market rival down a peg; and SF would be at risk of the whole thing blowing up (they sign the agreed-upon deal with JH, then Oakland says no thanks, screwing over a media market rival).

5. A team might trade for JH's current contract with the understanding that they will give him a major contract extension on day 1, on par with UM's offer.  The exposure for that team is still huge - JH would have absolultely ridiculous leverage in blowing that new contract completely through the roof, and his new team would be SOL, since the alternative is to have wasted the presumable draft picks it took to get him there.

 

So, in short, NFL teams wanting his services not only have to figure this out logistically, but have to be prepared to match UM's offer, plus offer compensation to SF, all while being at risk for getting massively screwed if any of the moving pieces falls apart.

 

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Mr Miggle

December 18th, 2014 at 5:31 AM ^

Your 4th and 5th scenarios where deals are agreed on, then backed out of in bad faith simply aren't going to happen. If Harbaugh agreed to a deal with Oakland, then refused to sign it after the trade was official, the trade would be voided. He wouldn't have any leverage. He would just be destroying his reputation in the league. SF can give another team a window to negotiate an extension. There's no need for your 3rd and 4th scenarios. They don't make any sense at all.

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mich_engineer

December 18th, 2014 at 9:08 AM ^

You are correct. I was limiting this to prior to the NFL season ending, before any other team can talk to him. If he could negotiate with Oakland himself, that completely changes it.

 

Also, I just remembered that he has a no-trade clause.  So he likely wouldn't accept a trade of his 1 year deal to a team that he didn't want to negotiate a new deal with anyway.

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Njia

December 18th, 2014 at 7:05 AM ^

Is both the carrot and stick. Unless Harbaugh has no interest in leaving the NFL, and perhaps even if he does, an NFL suitor would have to put together a compensation plan that at least comes close and inform Harbaugh what that amount and contract length would be. Remember: He has to agree on the winning bid between SF and that other team. Both teams have to show their hands to get him. I really don't see a way for the winning franchise to do anything less than pre-negotiate Harbaugh's contract with him before he agrees to terms with SF. The higher the financial cost, the less the winner might be inclined to trade the draft picks needed to make SF whole.

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UPWanderer

December 18th, 2014 at 4:06 AM ^

I agree, I'm interested to know why UM might want the contract information known to the public, if there is one on the table.

An agent might want to float that info to adjust a client's value (he did have a disappointing season (in the eyes of fans) with impression of organizational issues). I could even see the niners wanting that info out if they want to set a value point for other nfl teams that would talk trade. This information makes Jim look valuable and in demand.

What good is it for UM that this info is out and would they risk it -- would they make the offer? A number of posters have said they believe offers only go out when the coach is ready to sign.

Kirk Herbstreit would be the other guy interested in floating this information, obviously.

Anyway I agree with questioning what good is the publicity for UM here.

If everyone puts on their jimmy hats maybe we can get it up next year on the road.

Otherwise plan B, the other big topic, might be trying to convince Ted Lasso to return to American football.

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lilpenny1316

December 17th, 2014 at 11:34 PM ^

If Harbaugh walks, I'm sure he would need to "buy out" his contract.  Michigan will likely pay the buyout.  So now that this has been aired in public, each side does not have to pussyfoot anymore.  Michigan and San Fran now have 12 days to finalize the buyout and get us our coach.

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Mr Miggle

December 18th, 2014 at 5:41 AM ^

The details have not been released. Including a buyout clause when hiring a college coach makes a lot of sense. Bobby Petrino had walked out only a couple seasons earlier. SF can prevent him from coaching another NFL team next season.I don't think they don't need a buyout for that.

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HarBoSchem

December 17th, 2014 at 11:45 PM ^

it depends on who he has in his inner circle.  Besides his wife and kids, he has others he is listening to as well.  Having input from someone from the outside looking in can be some of the best advice given.  I hope he accepts the position on Monday the 22nd and waits to go public until after the season, of course telling the 49ers his plans.  Whether or not they let him finish the last game as a coach will be determined by how douchey york and baalke are.  

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M-Dog

December 17th, 2014 at 11:43 PM ^

There is a difference between public and private timing.  Don't expect anything to be announced pubilcally until after the 49ers season is over.

Privately, they may have already reached an agreement.  

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Brodie

December 18th, 2014 at 12:36 AM ^

if there is a deal or if this falls apart, we will know. That's how this works. Maybe not through the MSM... but chatter will turn one way or the other. We just made an offer. He has to either accept it or decline it and then there will be the business of getting him out of that contract. There's a lot of information yet to come.

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tdeshetler

December 17th, 2014 at 11:54 PM ^

I'm only going on my experiences, but I personally believe there is a hard date M expects an answer by. Most likely less than a week for him to give a hard Yes/No; even if it's not publicly conveyed until after the season. 8 million gives you that power and I don't think M is ready to let Harbaugh go test the markets for several weeks before committing.

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BlueHills

December 18th, 2014 at 12:08 AM ^

I think Michigan just chills at this point.

If there's a deadline, then it'll be favorable to JH. You don't make an offer like that and then put pressure on the guy to decide. You make the offer and come to a mutual agreement as to what is a reasonable time.

Frankly, Michigan threw down. That's a gigantic offer, and Michigan just showed the power of its resources.

With that number out there, a lot of coaches will think Michigan might just be a fantastic destination, I don't think we worry about Plan B. There are a lot of good coaches who'd say yes to half that.

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It'sGreatToBe

December 18th, 2014 at 1:21 AM ^

Agreed - I would be very surprised if this is not Michigan's approach.

While I can see why people might suspect Michigan would provide an exploding offer, it's important to remember that they would almost certainly want to avoid this feeling even remotely like a "hostile" approach. Members of the inner circle at Michigan are clearly using their personal relationships with Harbaugh to convince him that he should "return home", and nothing would undermine that pitch to his emotional connection to Michigan faster than making him feel backed into a corner and forcing him into an uncomfortable decision with incomplete information about his options.

I don't interpret the high offer amount as suggestive of Michigan's willingness to impose a timeline, either. To my mind, Michigan is merely addressing the reality that pulling Harbaugh  away from the NFL requires demonstrating that Michigan views him as a very special candidate. 

Bottom line: there are times when it makes sense to apply that type of negotiating pressure, but I do not think this is one of them.

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It'sGreatToBe

December 18th, 2014 at 1:26 AM ^

Can't edit, so just to clarify: I'm not saying that Michigan would allow the offer to stand until mid-January, but I don't see a drop-dead date prior to December 29th. I suspect we'd ask for an answer by January 4th or so.

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