In case you needed another reason to believe preseason polls are BS

Submitted by Blue@LSU on August 12th, 2022 at 4:37 PM

I saw this on r/CFB. 

Brett McMurphy provided his ballot for the AP preseason poll.

https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/2022-college-football-rankings-brett-mcmurphy-preseason-ap-top-25-poll-ballot-vs-betting-power-ratings

1. Alabama
2. OSU
3. Georgia
4. Wait for it... Miami
5. TAMU
6. Utah
7. Michigan
8. Oregon
9. NC State
10. Baylor

15. Wisconsin
16. Penn State
20. USC
21. Iowa
25. Nebraska

That's right. Nebraska in the top-25 but no Sparty. 

Bonus points to anyone that can explain why people care about Brett McMurphy. I only know him from being on top of the Zach Smith stuff, but I've seen him mentioned on here and other sports boards on several occasions. 

DoubleB

August 12th, 2022 at 4:43 PM ^

It's one guy's individual opinion in what is an aggregate poll. I bet if you looked at all the individual submissions you would see quite a few "outliers" from the aggregate.

MGlobules

August 12th, 2022 at 5:03 PM ^

Well, or--honestly--us. I think we're easily a top 10 squad to start this season, but we're a big name and have benefited from the recognition, and assumption we would be good, in plenty of past seasons. I have a friend who is a professor at the U of Alabama; to tease me, he would never mention the words Michigan Wolverines without placing the words "perennially overrated" in front of them. All of which is not wildly interesting, but does probably suggest that we've been the beneficiaries, too. 

M-Dog

August 13th, 2022 at 11:48 AM ^

DO IT!

OMG, I never knew that was a thing until I had a teenage daughter that lives 90% of her life on Tik Tok.  I, I, can't describe it, there are no words.  Could they be any more self unaware?  They are a walking parody of themselves.  And these are college girls. 

Every girl my daughter's age in every corner of the globe wants to go to Alabama and be a part of Alabama Rush and then post their OOTD's (Outfit Of The Day) on Tik Tok.  Even the smart ones that you would think would be above that.  But their parents (like me) won't let them go there.

So the smart ones gravitate toward wanting to go to Michigan especially, because they view it as an acceptable "Alabama" because it has all that rah rah Sorority stuff and big time sports but still has actual academics.  

I will need to gently remind her that her answer to "Why do you want to go to Michigan?" on her college application essay can't be: "Because it's like Alabama but my parents will let me go there because it has actual academics."  There is such a thing as too much honesty. 

The Deer Hunter

August 12th, 2022 at 4:55 PM ^

Meh, at least we know he isn't the one who voted for Texas as #1. His guess is as good as any. 

But I agree, pre-season polls are total BS, but it at least passes the time for the next 3 weeks. 

befuggled

August 12th, 2022 at 4:58 PM ^

No, this totally makes sense. Nebraska was the best 3-9 team in the country last year, after all, with an 0-8 record in games decided by 8 or fewer points.

Why, if they had split those games they would have been 7-5 and bowl eligible for the first time since Mike Riley's second year. I can certainly see the enthusiasm for next year.

MGoGrendel

August 12th, 2022 at 6:49 PM ^

I logged in to make the same comment.  Remove a couple of unlucky bounces, missed tackles, and dropped passes and they win games by 3 rather than losing them.  However, if “if and buts were candy and nuts…”  Maybe the breaks fall Nebraska’s way this year.  If not, Scotty may be gone by mid-season and take all his “bad luck” with him.

jmblue

August 12th, 2022 at 7:24 PM ^

It would be crazy if they had been respectable in one-score games prior to 2021 . . . but they haven't.  Frost has an absolutely putrid record in close games as a coach, something along the lines of 5-22.

This record suggests two things: 1) that Nebraska has the talent to play with most teams and 2) that Frost is a terrible gameday coach.

JonnyHintz

August 13th, 2022 at 8:51 AM ^

It’s still crazy to play OU, MSU and Michigan and lose by 1 score in each, lose by 9 to OSU. And simultaneously lose one score games to Minnesota, Purdue, and Illinois.

I get Frost’s track record in close games is not good, but if you’re playing OU, MSU, Michigan and OSU close then you shouldn’t even be in a close game with some of those other teams on the schedule. That’s what is so crazy about their team last year. 

Eng1980

August 13th, 2022 at 10:28 AM ^

Nebraska's run of bad luck is too long and too consistent to be just luck in my opinion. Northwestern has a habit of getting robbed by luck once or twice a year but not 8 games a year.  I think Nebraska's record falls on the coach.

However, almost every year there is a team with an above average number of returning seniors and a quality QB that goes from near bottom to near top just because they are that much more talented, and some brainless analyst says they are a surprise team.

TU-UM-Owlverine

August 12th, 2022 at 5:01 PM ^

Really, everyone's polls are wrong right now - that's why they change as the season goes on.  I see nothing wrong in principle with someone who writes about sports for a living having a hunch that a particular team is going to surprise lots of folks (although I question the wisdom in this specific instance).  Ad DoubleB says, this should all come out in the wash once you aggregate it all up.  The bigger concern is if you see massive systematic biases - all the ESPN or southeastern journalists boosting SEC schools over all others, or FOX and midwestern journalists boosting the B1G.  There was evidence of gaming the system back when folks were debating the wisdom of the BCS - I think it kept OK State out of the National Championship game 10-15 years ago...

Newton Gimmick

August 12th, 2022 at 5:06 PM ^

Disrespekt!

Except Nebraska was a better down-to-down team than MSU last year by most metrics I've seen.  And MSU lost the main reason they could score (Walker).  Nebraska outplayed MSU in East Lansing last year until that punting-banana-peel moment.

Miami at #4 is too high but they have talent, a good QB, and are in a bad division so... whatever

Amazinblu

August 12th, 2022 at 5:15 PM ^

Some fine perspectives, and - you might expect a ballot like the following from those in a certain part of the country.

1. Georgia (tie with Alabama)

1. Alabama (tie with Georgia)

3. Texas A&M

4. LSU

5. Florida

6. Ole Miss

7. Arkansas

8.Tennessee 

9. Mississippi State

10. South Carolina

11. Arkansas 

12. Vanderbilt 

13. Kentucky

14. Missouri

15. Oklahoma (honorary SEC team for this season)

16. Texas (honorary SEC team for this season)

17. Clemson

18. Florida State

19. Miami

20. UCF

21. The Citadel

22. Georgia Tech

23. Louisville

24. Ohio State

25. Michigan 

That might be Finebaum’s preseason ballot.

HAIL-YEA

August 12th, 2022 at 5:20 PM ^

I have no problem with him leaving Sparty out of the top 25. From the reports out of camp Walker is dominating so it is possible the offense takes a big step back without him. Their defense was already bad.

LSAClassOf2000

August 12th, 2022 at 5:54 PM ^

So, the primary reason that any preseason poll is bullshit really is that it is based on zero knowledge or data from the season in question. A poll that is essentially based on snippets of camp footage, if that, or "vibes", as people like to say, is more or less bullshit by definition. Now, we can talk about whose opinion we value more in these polls, but they all suffer from the same essential problem. 

Don

August 12th, 2022 at 9:24 PM ^

Pre-season polls have always been heady mix of recency bias, fall camp hype, the previous decade’s season’s results, and motivated reasoning of individual sportswriters flogging their favorite college team.

That’s why they’re an indispensable part of college football.

gremlin3

August 12th, 2022 at 9:28 PM ^

They're all a shot in the dark, so there's no reason to think this one will be any less accurate than any of the others.

Last year, Michigan was unranked and ended up in the CFP. (Everyone also predicted MSU to finish last in the B1G East and be one of the worst teams in the entire conference.) Had McMurphy or anyone else picked us #4, they would've been ridiculed even harder, so picking a Miami isn't totally unreasonable.