Breaking tendencies, scoring touchdowns
On Friday I made a board post documenting the distribution of run versus passing plays for all Michigan red zone trips this season and showing that the team is especially conservative in the red zone. But one of the graphs pointed to a very strong tendency: Michigan had yet to pass the ball on first and goal from within the five yard line. Here's the graph:
And here are the raw statistics (pre-PSU game):
- First and goal from within the opponent's 5-yard line: 18 plays
- # of running plays: 18
- # of passing plays: 0
Michigan had one (real) red zone possession yesterday. Here's the set-up:
- 2nd & 4 at PSU 29: Michigan enters the red zone on a 12 yard run by Haskins
- 1st & 10 at PSU 17: False start (Haskins). 5 yard penalty
- 1st & 15 at PSU 22: Pitch and catch to Wilson for a gain of 9 yards
- 2nd & 6 at PSU 13: All lined up as a FB. Fake handoff to Haskins. All looks like he is going to block the crashing DE, then rolls out on a wheel route. 12-yard completion to the PSU 1-yard line. This is a beautiful call. I don't remember seeing seeing this play all year.
- 1st & goal at PSU 1
Everyone is expecting run. This team had never passed the ball from this down-and-distance all year. The TV announcer states the obvious right before the play: "You would expect Haskins here." It has to be a RB dive to Haskins, right?
Wrong. Wilson is lined up tight to the right. McNamara fakes the handoff to Haskins. Wilson fakes that he is going to block down just long enough to get the safety to bite on the run. He then sneaks behind the safety to emerge wide open in the end zone. Touchdown Michigan!
That was one hell of a series, breaking previous tendencies in the red zone. I loved the wheel route to All out of the backfield, and the pass call on 1st and goal from the 1 was a complete surprise. This is proof that the coaching staff is continually looking for creative ways to get into the end zone. A big tip of the hat to coaches Gattis and Harbaugh on this possession.
Go Blue!
November 14th, 2021 at 11:22 AM ^
Yes! The predictability drives me nuts and it was so refreshing and unexpected to see this play develop. No trickery, just a smart play. How bush league did PSU look after that muffed FG attempt?
That is exactly what I hope for our team. Quit the silly plays and keep 'em guessing which smart play we're going to run.
That is a small culture shift that needs to be consistent.
November 14th, 2021 at 11:40 AM ^
Touchdowns > Field Goals
November 14th, 2021 at 1:57 PM ^
MUCH better
November 15th, 2021 at 6:08 AM ^
Obligatory:
November 14th, 2021 at 11:42 AM ^
There are still some things that annoy me about playcalling--such as lining up in the i-form on that fourth down and running toward the stacked side of the defense--but that drive was a thing of beauty. This offense is good and has a lot of things up its sleeve
November 14th, 2021 at 11:47 AM ^
Yeah, I hated that play and it felt doomed from the alignment. Not sure using your TE with a bum ankle as a FB made sense but it was so obvious that there was a wave of PSU players over that right edge.
I have to admit that all the heavy formations they ran afterwards, I figured were similarly doomed but other than the 3rd and 2 with Haskins (which he redeemed on 4th), I think we converted all the remaining short yardage plays.
November 14th, 2021 at 11:48 AM ^
They are saving the 4th and short play action for OSU.
We bang our head into a wall all season long for 1 opportunity to call a creative play.
November 14th, 2021 at 12:03 PM ^
I wish you were the OC /s
November 14th, 2021 at 12:17 PM ^
Nothing wrong with running on 3rd/4th and short or being run heavy in the RZ, it works a lot and it has worked a lot this season for Michigan, but we do it to the point of complete predictability.
It’s why that 1st and goal from the 1, pass, yesterday was so refreshing. We literally haven’t done it ALL SEASON out of 18 plays as OP showed above. That’s not something to keep in the playbook until game 9. Putting that on tape is not going to somehow ruin the ability to use that play in the future. When you have a tendency to run that often the opposition can cheat off the pass. Even making that closer to 80/20 run/pass makes future RZ/short yardage plays more difficult to defend, by not being so predictable.
November 14th, 2021 at 11:43 AM ^
Also, the not-technically-a-red-zone first drive featured a TD pass from the 21.
The obvious fix was to better balance the pass and run and not put in JJ to burn a couple downs like they had been doing. Kudos to the coaching staff on those. Now to fix all the false starts...
November 14th, 2021 at 11:46 AM ^
What I loved about that play call in particular is that both Wilson, the recipient of the touchdown pass, and CJ were both to the inside of their defenders at the back of the end zone. Either one of them could have realistically caught the pass while neither PSU defender had a good shot at the ball. That’s a play design I don’t know I’ve ever seen before. And the throw by McNamara to All on the wheel route the previous play was great; looped it right over top of the defender with touch while a blitzing defender is bearing right down on him.
2nd and 6 @ PSU 13: PA Wheel route to All from McNamara:
1st and goal @ PSU 1: PA Drive(?) route to Wilson from McNamara:
November 14th, 2021 at 6:06 PM ^
I didn't like that both CJ and Wilson ended up in the same place in the EZ. If that was the play design, I don't get why you'd bring two defenders together. The goal is to get WRs open - away from defenders, but that design would bring them all together. Doesn't make sense! I believe CJ may have run the wrong route, but maybe not?
November 14th, 2021 at 11:52 AM ^
I liked the first TD as well since it showed they started the red zone before they got inside the twenty, there's more space to pass when you're outside it.
Showing the versatility we need at the right time, for sure.
November 14th, 2021 at 12:01 PM ^
scoring on 2 of the three td's outside of the redzone is a pretty good change in tendencies
November 14th, 2021 at 12:26 PM ^
Michigan does pretty well scoring from outside the red zone. By my quick count, more than 1/3 of their touchdowns (15 out of 41) come from plays outside of the 20.
November 14th, 2021 at 1:03 PM ^
So do not drive past the 20 yard line no matter what, unless it is all the way to the end zone. Much better scoring from out there. Or something like that. /s
November 14th, 2021 at 12:04 PM ^
Finally play action over the middle on short yardage.
The coverage was not bad but the fake opened it just enough.
McNamara threw a dart on that play to Roman.
November 14th, 2021 at 12:05 PM ^
That scoring drive was my favorite drive of the year. Not sure what happened on the next few drives.
November 14th, 2021 at 12:17 PM ^
I loved the screen pass call on the first TD drive too. Might have been the first screen all year?
November 14th, 2021 at 12:29 PM ^
I know this is hot take stuff right here, but that's what forward-thinking programs do. When you get to the goal line, you don't cram it 4 straight plays. You have to think outside the box.
I feel like Harbaugh is SO CLOSE to completely shedding the 1970s mentality. However, you have situations like yesterday when you have 4th down and 2, and they run a slow-moving hand-off to the right that pretty much everyone saw coming.
Those plays are the ones that need to change in order for this team to go from great to a championship.
November 14th, 2021 at 1:52 PM ^
That play was so predictable
why not catch them napping with a pass there?
I get he wants to man ball but there entire team was ready for that one
November 14th, 2021 at 1:56 PM ^
Or do my single favorite running play where you have all the action to one side (like they did) and do the quick fake handoff and pitch to the opposite side- I have yet to see that play not work.
November 14th, 2021 at 12:58 PM ^
Kudos to the OP on a terrific follow-up to a terrific post with actual data on tendencies and purported tendencies!
Two things:
That Wilson TD _catch_ was FANTASTIC! Cade lasered that ball that travels just, ?maybe?, 10-12 yards. The umpire has to duck or it takes off his head, so Wilson has a microsecond to react to on its arrival after that massive distraction/obstructed view. And he catches and secures possession in time even with that cast. That's MAKING A PLAY! He should be getting all kinds of raves for that catch.
UM short-yardage offense also broke out a new formation & play, I think, and ran it successfully twice, I think. Looked like 8-man line, overshifted to one side, with FB and HB joining Cade. Can anyone fact-check me on that?
November 14th, 2021 at 1:02 PM ^
Thanks!
Great point about that play and catch by Wilson. Most impressive part is that he's making that catch with his hand in a cast. Great play and great execution.
November 14th, 2021 at 1:49 PM ^
When they went play action on first down it really opened everything up offensively.
Psu was selling out on first down to stop the run every time
once we went to PA on 1st down it changed the game for the offense.
November 14th, 2021 at 2:47 PM ^
All I know is if it's 2nd and long and we run the ball...and we get it to 3rd and 1.
...and then you see us sprint to the line to try and go quick.
You may as well send all 11 guys at Hassan Haskins because we're going to run the exact same play or we're going to run a dive. Either way, send everyone at Haskins and you'll come up with a stop.
November 14th, 2021 at 2:49 PM ^
...if we get this situation against OSU in a position of the field where we're going to go for it on 4th and 1.
We have to be alert enough to sprint to the line, show the dive...show the dive, and boom, leak a TE down the seam for a PA pass TD!
November 14th, 2021 at 3:27 PM ^
My "favorite" was our very first offensive play of the game. Off tackle run. Oops, illegal motion making in 1st and 15. So our 2nd play? Yep, exact same play.
November 14th, 2021 at 7:32 PM ^
Noticed that as well. SMH.
November 14th, 2021 at 6:34 PM ^
Great discussion about the two RZ calls that worked so well. But, if I may, I'd like to talk about another tendency that led to a TD. The go ahead TD drive to All kicked off with yet another tendency that had all of us complaining. Five straight handoffs to Haskins, all of them into the A and B gaps - inside the tackles. By the 5th one, I'm not sure who was expecting it more - the irate fanbase, or PSU's defense. Sure enough, the 6th play started with trips wide left, pullers moving left, HH and Cade turning in that direction, and the TE blocking down on a LB.
LOL!!
All shot right, against the grain, and only the MLB noticed it, but it was too late. He was already out of the play when All caught it. The boundary corner and safety were flat out racing to the field side to catch up to Haskins. They didn't even see it right in front of their eyes!!
An entire game of Haskins going up the middle made that play. Probably the best play call I've seen all year. Credit to Gattis for dialing that one up...
November 14th, 2021 at 7:01 PM ^
Excellent description of the play. And that play call came at the most opportune time. Another thing that really made it work was that Haskins was gaining yards on those runs. The LB had to respect the run. It was a perfect example of using the run game to open up the pass.