Breaking down Harbaugh’s losses
I guess the result of Saturday shouldn’t have surprised anyone. JH has lost 4 times at home and the teams he has lost to have a combined end of season record of 46-8. The 12 losses outside of Ann Arbor had a combined record of 97-26. The “worst” loss in the Harbaugh era was a road loss to 8-5 Iowa. That was a night game in Kinnick and we all know how difficult it is to play there. The point is, through nearly 5 seasons, he hasn’t lost a game to a team even close to being average. We all want to win more “big games”, but we sure have come a long way from where we were before he got here.
November 18th, 2019 at 1:09 PM ^
I was pretty gloomy after Wisconsin but now we are seeing the actual dividends of the Gattis hire. In the summer I was convinced it was Harbaugh's most brilliant move to date, on par with Don Brown. I think the staff is in a terrific place to contend for the next several years.
November 18th, 2019 at 1:45 PM ^
Hopefully no staff changes this off season. Every year has been a staff shuffle. I'd love to see one off season with some continuity.
November 18th, 2019 at 1:54 PM ^
Warinner, Gattis , and partridge need to be made absolutely off limits (by making sure they are highly compensated so they aren't looking to leave this off season). I think it's inevitable that Gattis is gone after next year. I grossly underestimated the time it'd take to get the offense rolling, so i thought for sure he'd be gone after this year. After seeing the development throughout this season , he's going to have a juggernaut next year. Look out.
November 18th, 2019 at 3:57 PM ^
I would've bet money that Gattis was gone after this year. I thought with this talent and a wide open system, that Michigan would have a top 20 offense, and he would end up taking a job like one of the directional Floridas or some other "mid-major" job vacated by someone who just moved to a P5. It sucks that the offense hasn't been lights out all year but it will be nice to see the offense in year 2. Also, it's unlikely that Michigan goes back from this offense to the previous offense so that's a step in the right direction for years to come.
November 18th, 2019 at 2:05 PM ^
There were no changes between 15 and 16...or really 17 and 18
November 18th, 2019 at 2:07 PM ^
17 to 18 was an enormous change dropping Drevno and adding Warinner
November 18th, 2019 at 2:45 PM ^
You're right, I forgot about that. But position coaches leave all the time. Coordinators leaving can mess things up, but OSU has constant coordinator turnover as well and never miss a beat.
November 18th, 2019 at 2:47 PM ^
There were no changes between 15 and 16
Durkin to Brown?
November 18th, 2019 at 3:39 PM ^
True, but did we miss a beat that year?
November 18th, 2019 at 3:26 PM ^
Agree. I won't get too caught up if a position coach or two changes, but I really want to see some offensive continuity. I don't think we'll be winning titles or anything, but if we can pair Bell with one senior wideout and plug in workable guys at the three open OL spots (keeping Warinner is important here, but I think there's a good chance our two new guards will be just fine) we have the tools to have a terrific offense despite losing a lot of the "names" from this year's team.
And Brown's evolution this year has been very encouraging. Check back in two weeks to see if I still feel sanguine about Brown, but the most likely scenario against OSU if things go badly is that they go badly in a way that is unsurprising due to personnel issues, rather than a shocking hole in the scheme like last year. Anyway, I tend to favor firing nobody at the moment.
November 18th, 2019 at 1:10 PM ^
we have but most wont see it that way, we live in a microwave society, that doesnt take the time to look at things logistically thankfully we have posters like space coyote and bronx blue who give great analysis and dont knee jerk react to every win and loss
November 18th, 2019 at 1:11 PM ^
The officiating in the Iowa game was complete garbage. Speight missed some open WR so the officiating should not have mattered and the loss was on the team, but that was one where even an objective Iowa fan would agree that the refs affected the outcome.
November 18th, 2019 at 1:14 PM ^
Running into Iowa's kicker multiple times had more to do with that loss than the refs.
November 18th, 2019 at 1:32 PM ^
back to back plays. That was the game right there.
November 18th, 2019 at 1:50 PM ^
Do you remember the Iowa punter though? He rolled hard to his right, made it seem like he was faking a punt. Are you afforded an unlimited pocket? At some point he's a runner, I think he went beyond that point.
November 18th, 2019 at 2:38 PM ^
If memory serves me, that also changed momentum the first time Harbaugh played OSU. There are times (like MSU) when you are way ahead you go after it or if you need a big play late. I HATE it when the opposition is punting and a stupid roughing the kicker. Big momentum change. I would much rather team plays against a fake and set up return.
November 19th, 2019 at 2:50 PM ^
I remember this in '15. I remember telling my brother who I was watching the game with, that it changed the game
November 18th, 2019 at 1:22 PM ^
Objective Iowa fan....when it comes to a game that Iowa won over UM...this does not exist...at least according to my small sample size of the 1 Iowa fan I know...
November 18th, 2019 at 1:49 PM ^
Also, Kinnick is just brutal. I was there and thought the place was going to fall down it was shaking so hard.
November 18th, 2019 at 4:02 PM ^
We had that game won if Darboh - who normally had great hands - just catches an open pass up the sideline.
November 18th, 2019 at 1:11 PM ^
I believe the stat is "hasn't lost to a team on the road unless that team is undefeated at home that year and hasn't lost at home except for to OSU and MSU."
November 18th, 2019 at 1:24 PM ^
Iowa lost three home games in 2016 when we lost to them, including one against NDSU
2015 Utah only lost once at home to Arizona
But those are the only exceptions over the course of 5 years, which is pretty crazy
November 18th, 2019 at 3:11 PM ^
Oh. Then I heard the stat wrong earlier this year or some false stat is floating out there. I will never cite it again.
November 18th, 2019 at 10:06 PM ^
There was one detail you left out of the stat, because I remember hearing it too. It was against ranked teams, 2015 Utah and 2016 Iowa were not ranked.
November 18th, 2019 at 1:13 PM ^
The USC team that Michigan lost to was most definitely average. That's easily the worst loss of his Michigan career.
November 18th, 2019 at 1:18 PM ^
Our bowl performances have definitely been frustrating. In year one we blew out Florida and it look like we were ready to make a big run. The last three bowl games it looks like our team has been checked out. This year I really hope we change that. If we can beat Indiana I still don’t expect to beat OSU, but winning a bowl game and getting 10 wins would be a big accomplishment in my opinion.
November 18th, 2019 at 1:29 PM ^
What?
Last year sure, but they didn't look checked out against FSU or South Carolina.
November 18th, 2019 at 1:38 PM ^
even if we did not check out we were up 19-3 against SC mid way through the 3rd quarter. The defense was on the field too long and we did not seem interested in scoring again. The DPJ muffed punt was pretty damn bad.
November 18th, 2019 at 3:34 PM ^
Wasn’t the inside-the-10 RZ Higdon fumble the real killer?
November 18th, 2019 at 1:39 PM ^
Wait, what USC game are you thinking? The USC that is Southern Cal, or the USC that is South Carolina? Because we haven't played USC in decades. The bowl game against USC (NTUSC) was a completely checked out affair that the team and coaches wanted nothing to do with. In fact, I think the bus driver didn't even want to be there.
That FSU game, though... That was, IMO, Harbaugh's best single game coaching feat since he arrived. A total shit show preceded that game, and continued early in the game. Yet still, they had a lead with less than one minute left. GOTDAMN that missed kickoff tackle at the 10 yard line!
November 18th, 2019 at 4:37 PM ^
This. If you're talking college football, USC is University of Southern California not South Carolina. They are the Gamecocks, or Cocks for shits and giggles.
November 18th, 2019 at 1:35 PM ^
M was leading against FSU with a minute and a half to go in the game. That's not "checked out." Peppers pulled a hamstring they day before the game and wasn't able to play. If he's in the game, it might have ended differently.
November 18th, 2019 at 1:39 PM ^
I mean because we started so slow. We had some OSU hangover for a while.
November 18th, 2019 at 2:57 PM ^
Losing Peppers and Butt didn't help things.
I feel like this is confirmation bias. We started slow but still were 2 minutes from winning the Orange Bowl - hard to call that a bad effort.
November 18th, 2019 at 1:55 PM ^
Jake Butt was also lost in-game.
That kickoff at the end. The weird bounce made everyone - including FSU players - hold up for a moment, and led to the return which allowed the score. It's just so fucked up. A touchback or normal kickoff return to the 25-30 and they are not scoring on that defense with less than two minutes remaining.
November 18th, 2019 at 1:37 PM ^
I think 9 win seasons will be the new norm. With the early signing period teams are no longer playing to impress recruits and like last year, we'll see more elite players sit out the bowls. Right now, unless you're in the final 4, these games mean less and less.
November 18th, 2019 at 1:40 PM ^
I do not mind elite players sitting but I do care about captains sitting out bowls. Higdon's off the field stuff the last two games of his Michigan career left a bad taste in my mouth.
November 18th, 2019 at 4:45 PM ^
My advice would be to not let a man put anything in your mouth in the first place.
November 18th, 2019 at 1:22 PM ^
It certainly was the worst loss in terms of opponent quality. Michigan was also extremely average that year. Rolling out a young, inexperienced Peters in a bowl game nobody cared about was a factor. Speight's injury that year was devastating.
November 18th, 2019 at 1:25 PM ^
To me, the worst part was that we blew a huge lead. Too much PTSD to look it up, but I think we were up 18 or 19 and totally blew it
November 18th, 2019 at 1:22 PM ^
Also the least consequential. Coincidence?
November 18th, 2019 at 1:30 PM ^
Getting blasted by what's going to end up being a 4 loss Wisconsin team will be pretty bad too tbh.
If Michigan does beat OSU this year, the fact that they pretty much threw that game away from the first play is going to hurt for a long time.
November 18th, 2019 at 1:43 PM ^
If they beat OSU this year, nothing will hurt for the next 365 days.
November 18th, 2019 at 1:55 PM ^
I am not sure Wisky loses to Purdue so where are you seeing the 4th loss? The fact the B1G West likely comes down to a single game likely played by two top 15 teams is good for the conference.
November 19th, 2019 at 11:40 AM ^
A second blasting at the hands of OSU and a bowl loss.
November 18th, 2019 at 5:30 PM ^
We were down two DL off an already thin line and breaking in a new offense. That Wisconsin loss isn't great, but the loss to PSU is worse IMO. Wisconsin was clearly the better team when we played (not so much now). PSU was emphatically NOT better than UM when we played.
November 18th, 2019 at 1:14 PM ^
Yeah - I know people don't like looking at things like losses with context, especially when it comes to OSU, but JH has done a great job with this program.
IMO, Saban's success has played psychological warfare with CFB fans' minds. Everyone seems to believe you need to get to that level in order to be successful but their success is literally unprecedented.
When you consider how CFB has changed over the years and its impact on Michigan as a program I'm not sure who would've been able to do better over the past 5 years and be poised for continued success over the next 5+ years.
November 18th, 2019 at 1:18 PM ^
No, you don’t need to get to Saban’s current level to be a “success”, but a division championship once in five years would be a good start. It’s not like no one has won the East over Ohio State in that span.
November 18th, 2019 at 1:27 PM ^
I see, so you'd rather have Franklin or Dintanio as UM's coach?
November 18th, 2019 at 1:34 PM ^
You’d rather have Harbaugh even if he never beats Ohio State and never even wins the division?