Bill Connelly's 2023 Returning Production Rankings: Michigan 5th
Michigan is ranked 5th in the country in returning production (81%) according to Connelly's metrics. A very strong indicator for year-over-year improvement historically speaking according to his S&P+ rankings. Relevant rankings below:
Michigan - 5th overall (4th offense, 16th defense)
Wisconsin - 28th (30th O, 48th D)
Michigan State - 45th (11th O, 83rd D)
Ohio State - 48th (97th O, 20th D)
Penn State - 56th (102nd O, 24th D)
Purdue - 57th (49th O, 76th D)
Georgia - 80th (109th O, 42nd D)
Alabama - 125th (120th O, 127th D)
The Michigan blurb: "When FSU has a chance to be the story, FSU is the story. That's the way these things tend to work. But it's pretty jarring to see a team that made the CFP one year also rank in the top five in returning production the next.
The Wolverines are projected to return quarterback J.J. McCarthy, running back and Heisman hopeful Blake Corum and nine of their 12 defenders with 400-plus snaps. Plus, Jim Harbaugh made deft use of the portal, adding reinforcements to both the linebacking corps and an already-awesome offensive line. Both Ohio State and Penn State enter 2023 with hopes of preventing a third straight Big Ten title for Michigan, but they'll have to clear a really high hurdle."
February 7th, 2023 at 3:35 PM ^
Just like the Lion fan sayeth: "This could be the year."
February 7th, 2023 at 4:30 PM ^
Until the end of time, next year will always be the Lions' year.
February 7th, 2023 at 4:31 PM ^
This is absolutely the year. Hard to see it happening soon after this year if it doesn't happen
February 7th, 2023 at 4:34 PM ^
Lifetime Lions' fan here. Not sure I've ever said that, other than, "This could be the year we get a really great pick from the draft."
February 7th, 2023 at 6:15 PM ^
It has to be the year bc it appears, at the moment, there will be significant dropoff in 2024. We could benefit from the portal but it’s tough to replace JJ, Blake, The Don, Keegan and Zinter on offense.
February 7th, 2023 at 6:37 PM ^
Maybe I'm just an optimist, but is there any chance that JJ comes back for another year? It looks like next year's QB draft class is going to be loaded: Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Big Penix Energy, Bo Nix, Jordan Travis, Sam Hartman, Jayden Daniels...
February 7th, 2023 at 7:06 PM ^
Disagree with the O line comment.
O line looks to be a strength for many years to come.
February 9th, 2023 at 8:40 AM ^
We just had two "the years". Idk what people are talking about, our team is great and will continue to be great, we will have another great season.
February 7th, 2023 at 3:40 PM ^
Is it happening?
February 7th, 2023 at 3:48 PM ^
The article answers my main question. How much bump do you get in SP+ based on your returning production?
The answer is basically Michigan can expect to go from 2022 Michigan to 2022 Georgia.
Edit: Also kind of interesting that both Alabama (40% returning) and OSU (67%) will be expected to regress, but still probably remain top 5ish teams.
And Utah as a dark horse CFP team.
February 7th, 2023 at 4:34 PM ^
When you recruit the way Bama and OSU have over a several year stretch, your roster is like a shark's mouth. You may lose a sharpened tooth or two, but you can afford that because you've got a couple rows full behind them that are just as sharp and ready to be put into use.
February 7th, 2023 at 4:48 PM ^
Yeah that's why I find it interesting. Just another reminder of how top heavy college football is. The drop from 5 to 10 is the same as the drop from 10 to 30. The stats suggest Alabama should regress between 6 and 11 points in SP+, which is huge.
Although we should probably question if Alabama was actually the #2 team in college football in 2022, as SP+ suggests. I would argue they were very clearly not.
February 7th, 2023 at 3:48 PM ^
Natty or bust!! Go Blue!
February 7th, 2023 at 3:58 PM ^
*makes Indy hotel reservation*
(kidding, I would never jinx them like that)
February 7th, 2023 at 5:19 PM ^
Nothing wrong with booking Indy.
Ohio State folks I know pay face value ~$95.00 for luge level seats (6), Book rooms and dinner reservations for 4 nights.
If OSU doesn't make it , he cxls all the reservations, ( no penalty )and sells tix at face to fans of those teams. UM included.
It's a safe bet we're going back to Indy, and trying to get set up after the Game is not easy. The jinx is ticket $s and Hotel space if you wait.
February 7th, 2023 at 4:00 PM ^
It could be our year folks! Can't wait to buckle up for this ride.
February 7th, 2023 at 4:32 PM ^
Both Ohio State and Penn State enter 2023 with hopes of preventing a third straight B1G title for Michigan, but they'll have to clear a really high hurdle.
Dare I say, the script hath been flipped?
I have always been fascinated by predator/prey scenes in nature documentaries, whether it was the brute strength of a lion overpowering a zebra, the strategy and endurance of the pack of painted wolves chasing and exhausting the wildebeast, or the cheetah's blazing speed in toppling and suffocating the gazelle.
This past year I gained a new appreciation for the art of the anaconda's seizing and slow strangling of its prey. I can't wait to watch another season of it. David Attenborough has nothing on Gus Johnson and Joel Klatt as narrators of such predation.
February 7th, 2023 at 4:36 PM ^
Who--do I dare ask--sits at numbers on through four?
February 7th, 2023 at 4:50 PM ^
FSU, Kansas, FAU, Wyoming.
You have to combine this ranking, recruiting classes, and 2022 final sp+ ranking to determine who will be good. As the blurb says, Michigan is notable for being top 5 in both returing and 2022 ranking.
February 7th, 2023 at 5:02 PM ^
Question: Does Connelly do anything with transfers who started at other programs or is it as advertised, counting only plays/games or whatever for the team in question?
February 7th, 2023 at 5:07 PM ^
Transfers count as returning production if they came from an FBS school. They also count as part of your recruiting ranking. So they get double counted. Transfers from FCS schools do not count.
February 7th, 2023 at 5:05 PM ^
The best Michigan teams in my lifetime—1980, 1985, and 1997—were ranked #12, unranked, and #14 at the start of their seasons. Most of the highest-ranked Michigan teams to begin the season haven't gotten the job done at the end of the year.
February 7th, 2023 at 6:08 PM ^
Um, boo, ya goddern historical realist
February 7th, 2023 at 7:37 PM ^
Fall of 1976. Michigan is on the cover of SI. I first set foot on campus. I went to the Rose Bowl to watch a loss to USC. And so it goes.
February 7th, 2023 at 8:06 PM ^
I went to West Lafayette that year to watch No. 1 ranked Michigan lose to Purdue. Scott Dirking ran for 200+ on us.
February 7th, 2023 at 6:21 PM ^
Interesting. Personally think it is great we have so much production returning. Team culture of hard work and poise is something I admire. Happen to think Michigan football is well coached too.
February 7th, 2023 at 8:13 PM ^
You’ve got to be a little lucky as well as really good to go undefeated. Happened last year and we blew it. Hope we get another chance.
February 7th, 2023 at 10:07 PM ^
I don’t disagree that luck often plays a part in undefeated seasons. I’m curious. Where do you think UM got lucky last year?
February 8th, 2023 at 2:23 PM ^
some might say those 5 plays in Columbus...
but seriously, iirc, wasn't there a penalty against Illinois that extended what would become the winning drive? one could argue that constitutes luck. beyond that, I don't think luck had anything to do with the W/L outcome of any game...looking at the injury picture, one could make a valid argument that M suffered bad luck more than they enjoyed good luck.
February 8th, 2023 at 12:22 AM ^
It is not inconceivable that JH will go 40 and 3 in a 3 year stretch.