Biggest issue facing Michigan Basketball next season...
Big C health has to be the biggest issues facing Coach B,btw now and next season. His development from this point on will effect just how far,imo,this team will go next season. His presence must be felt and will make all the difference in the world.
I think he has to contribute atleast 8 pts 6 rebounds and 2 blocks per game to be a force to be reckon with in the middle. Plays with a mean streak would go a long way also.
1) That was hard to read / understand. Sorry if I missed your point.
2) I think the hardest thing will be for Coach B to juggle all of the talent. This year it was easy because we basically had two 40-rated guys starting, but next year it could get dicey with about 10 guys thinking they should be the five starters.
And don't get me wrong, the problem I laid out in #2 is a nice one to have. I think we should go 13-5 in the B10 and land somewhere in the 4-6 seed range.
also remember John Beilein's system like coach K's, utilizes the whole bench. Along with creating competition for starting roles, an abundance of talent should pay huge dividends late into a game.
coach K doesn't use his whole bench. He typically plays 7 guys.
13-5 might be asking a little much.
M will definitely improve, but so will the rest of the Big Ten.
OSU, Purdue, Illinois, Penn St were all ahead of Michigan in the standings and all have most of their team coming back just like M does.
Looking through my maize-and-blue colored glasses, I think Michigan will improve more than the other teams simply because they have 5 players coming in to replace 2 walk ons, but I think it'll be more like 11-7.
Actually, PSU loses three of its top players (Cornley, Pringle and Morrissey) to graduation and OSU may lose up to three guys (Mullens for sure, probably also Turner, and possibly Buford) to the NBA Draft. Neither has much coming in, so I'd expect both to be worse. Purdue and Illinois should return most of their teams, though (there's a small chance Purdue's Johnson will go pro).
I don't know why everyone is saying Cronin is the key next year.
First off, we had enough size this year in Sims and Gibson to field a team with enough length and mitigate some of our man-to-man defense and rebouding issues.
The issue was this: why did Beilein not play them together? It was something I increasingly wanted to see happen to address our size issues up front and just see if it would work.
The problem, however, comes on offense. Beilein's offense uses ONE high post, two guards and two "forwards" who are in the corner. Sims and Gibson alternated the high post role and neither played with the other on the court.
Beilein obviously felt both were ill-equipped to handle the cutting, movement, 3-pt shooting and ball-handling responsibilities of the wing players ( if both were to play at the same time, one would be replicating the role of Novak). I am pretty sure they practiced this way all year long and to change anything up would have threw us off offensively and either big guy would have been uncomfortable in their new role.
So.. until we get a PF or C with the skill set to handle the duties of the other wing player, we will likely be stuck with Sims and Gibson rotating the center minutes and Cronin tied to the bench unless he makes a leap and supplants Zach, which i dont see happening.
If these previous assumptions hold, it will not be until McLimans is ready to play that we will see a significantly bigger team.( IIRC, Morgan is more of a low-post guy and I dont see hime fitting in especially well, but I could be wrong).
This is all assuming that Beilein does not throw a tweak into the offense that allows them both to play at the same time( which is more plausible given the wealth of practice time before next year.) So it is a matter of this: Does the increased ability to rebound and defend against big teams make up for our presumed decrease in offensive efficiency. Beilein, if I am analyzing this situation correctly, felt that the answer was no and that the extra 3-pt shooting and quickness was very important.
And based on the results of the season, I cant say I'd argue with him on his decision.
You just answered why Cronin is key in your post: because Sims and Gibson don't play at the same time. The two guys play the same position (which Sims should be a PF and not C), so therefore Beilein didn't play them together regularly (I can remember that he did at times).
I will agree that Cronin isn't THE key, and I will say that Gibson's development is. If Cronin can be a usable back-up to a solid Gibson, then Sims can play his true PF position and we will be able to add size to the whole line-up and put everyone in their natural positions. With that, and a year of development for everyone, we should be a solid team on paper (which we weren't this year and look where we made it).
March 22nd, 2009 at 11:31 PM ^
"then Sims can play his true PF position and we will be able to add size to the whole line-up and put everyone in their natural positions"
- first off, in Beilein's system, there are not traditional positions. So you can't just say we need Cronin and Gibson to play center so Sims can play PF. The problem is, that with the skill sets of those guys, Beilein only wants ONE of them on the floor at a time. Beilein did not play them together because neither is a consistent outside shooter, and NOT because they are both PF's.
IF Beilein had a big guy who could stroke threes at a good percentage and another guy like Sims or Gibson who cant, then he would play them both.
You can't just make arguments aabout crap like ' oh lets just slide everyone down a position and our size will be fine'. Beilein's two-guard offense is very unconventional and its premium on spacing requires only one post player and the other 4 need to be able to shoot or create shots. So Sims and Gibson/ Cronin more than likely will not see the floor simaultaneously. So concocting scenarios in which they do, when Beilein just spent a whole season proving that they won't, is stupid.
Agian, just think about what I am saying. Assume Sims is running the high post w/ Douglass, D-Morris and Harris out there. What in the hell would Gibson be doing. Running off of screens? Making back-cuts? Handling the ball? Spotting up in the corner for three? Clogging up the lane down low(no b/c that takes away the threat of backdoor cuts)?
- he can't effectively do any of these things, nor can Sims, and these are precisley the types of things they would be doing. Beilein isn't dumb. We're not getting two bigs on the court at once unless one of them can shoot the three. It would funk up his whole offense.
March 23rd, 2009 at 11:44 AM ^
Beilein isn't nearly as rigid as you're making him out to be. Last year we played two posts most of the season, and at WVU he did at times as well. I think the main reason we didn't see it much this year was due to us being extremely thin. Beilein probably concluded that it was better to keep a fresh post off the bench at all times. Next year I think we'll see a lot more of Gibson and Sims together. I'm not sure why you think they don't have the skills. Yeah, their 3-point percentages weren't great, but they CAN stroke it at times, and both have a solid midrange jumper. Gibson has also shown an ability to take other bigs off the dribble. I think our offense can function well with Sims in the post and Gibson up top.
If they get one solid player out of Cronin, Gibson, and McLimans, they can upgrade their height and move everyone "down" one position:
C McCroGib
PF Sims
SF Harris
This leaves any combination of LLP, Grady, Novak, Douglass, Grady, Vogrich, and Morris at guard.
Morgan could end up getting some minutes at PF, and Novak, Douglass, or Vogrich could "spell" Harris when he needs it.
I still can't figure out where Wright fits in, but Puls fits on the bench pretty well.
March 23rd, 2009 at 11:20 AM ^
Maybe Cronin starts getting more minutes at the end of next year - he can't even practice fully right now and the coaches won't see him practice till fall - and/or Gibson improves dramatically, but right now all evidence is that Novak is the starting "4."
And the biggest question mark for next year is where true vocal leadership will come from. To date, Harris and Sims haven't shown they can do what CJ and Merritt did this year. But, here's hoping. We won't know until fall or winter.
March 23rd, 2009 at 11:46 AM ^
Do you think the fact that we had literally two available players over 6'5" might have been a contributing factor to Novak playing the 4?
And next year, we'll have three more, but I'm not sure why Gibson will suddenly be a starter next year or why Cronin, who will basically be a frosh next year, is a better pair with Sims than even Gibson was/will be.
I'm just sayin', to start next year, Sims-Novak-Stu-Manny + a PG is likely the starting five rather than substituting a guy who couldn't crack the starting limeup this year or a lumbering redshirt frosh.
Of course, all of this changes in Beilein decides to start Stu at PG, which I doubt.
I think Gibson is capable of being a starter - at least, against tall teams like OSU. I really think our fans are too hard on him. He's got some offensive skill, and at the other end he's toughened up and become more of a presence. I'm not sure what to expect from Cronin or the other two, but I've got to imagine we can get backup's minutes out of one of them, or them collectively.
Having a legitimate big man is obviously going to be an issue because Sims is an undersized PF, much less a center. I don't think Gibson is the answer though. He's had two years under Beilein and has not improved. If you want a backup to Cronin, I would suggest maybe Blake McLimans, as he is 6-10 and a good outside shooter. Unless Cronin improves considerably however, I don't see us having a big man who can play offense and defense, unfortunately. Hopefully, though, a combination can at least hold their own and not allow the laughable scenarios where Sims is playing center and Novak is playing power forward.
The PG position will also be an issue next season. Whatever you think of CJ Lee, the fact remains he handled the ball and ran the offense rather well. Morris' profile says he's too turnover prone, which is unacceptable for a PG under any system, so don't expect an immediate contribution from him. That means PG responsibilities will have to go to either Grady or a combination with Harris and Douglass. Grady's development will be interesting. Aside from obviously improving his defense, he also has to be a good passer. This is his last chance, however. If he can't beat out Morris, then he'll probably never play significant minutes ever again (a scenario very similar to Shepherd losing the SG position to Novak this year). The same is true in an even more dire extent for Anthony Wright. With Vogrich coming in, he would have to beat either Vogrich, Novak or Lucas-Perry for time and I just don't see that happening. He is in severe danger of not seeing the floor in a significant way for the rest of his time in Ann Arbor. Harris has developed into a good passer and so has Douglass. I can also see how dividing responsibilities between Harris and Douglass would make sense because it would allow Beilein to put another shooter, such as Vogrich, on the floor.
I see the lineup consisting of Harris, Douglass, Vogrich, Sims and Cronin. The backups will be Morris/Grady, Lucas-Perry/Wright, Novak (who I think will be displaced by Vogrich), McLimans and Gibson. Of the backups, I see either but not both Morris/Grady and Lucas-Perry/Wright, Novak and Gibson in the regular rotation, meaning 9 guys play regularly. That lineup gives you two lights out shooters to complement Harris and Sims. The passing should be okay with Harris and Douglass, though there will be ballhandling issues, which opens the door for Morris/Grady. Michigan really needs a consistent shooter and I think Vogrich will be a great X factor because of that next year.
Gibson hasn't improved? I think he's made major strides. A year ago, he was extremely soft - the big guys from Harvard pushed him around. This year in the tournament he was mixing it up, playing tough interior D and getting a hand on a lot of boards. In fact, he arguably outperformed Sims in the two games, when you account for how many minutes they each received.
CJ Lee taking over at point guard really helped our mid season slide and was key in beating the press and still running a decent half court offense and playing defense against Clemson. In Coach B's offense the point guard is key in disturbing the ball. Until I see someone run the point effectively I going to be a little nervous.
Another viable option upfront is key for this team to go to the next level but that doesn't do them any good without a good point guard.
Both these guys have the ability to get into the lane and dish or hit the mid-range J. If they can do this next year this team will be extremly tough to defend
I like to see Wright playing at the PF position next year a little bit if Novak is forced to play there this year again. He's atleast an inch and a half taller and will be able to guard bigger men better than Novak. Not saying he will start over Novak, but it's a possibility.
in addition to having a complementary big man and everyone sliding down a position,
we need to get more athletic on the perimeter. i wouldn't want to see douglass and novak both starting or simultaneously seeing big minutes next year. this year we had one guy (manny) capable of putting the ball on the floor with two spot-up shooters and lee around him. that was just too easy to defend, and oklahoma's guards really exposed us.
i've grown really fond of douglass and novak this year for all the moxie they've brought to this team, but ideally they would both come off the bench for a good team. douglass is a mistake-free ballhandler but he doesn't have enough to start penetrating and dishing or hitting mid-range jumpers. novak can be described as about the same. they both can spot-up but neither can really pull-up for a shot. it is in regards to this that i'm really excited about vogrich.
i think for us to take that quantum leap next year, either of the following must happen. 1) LLP develops into a PG or 2) Morris is capable of running the point as a frosh. Scenario 1 is obviously more likely.
sadly, i've given up on grady. i don't think he'll ever overcome his defensive shortcomings (especially in the beilein zone), and something tells me beilein just doesn't like him. sure he's quick and a good ballhandler but i don't think he's yet to show he can penetrate and make a good decision. hopefully i'm wrong.
also manny needs a mid-range jumper badly. he's talented enough to get away with over-penetrating but he could really get more easy baskets if he just pulled up.
my highly speculative guess/what i want to see...
C Cronin
F Sims
G Douglass-Novak-Vogrich
G Harris
G Lucas-Perry
March 23rd, 2009 at 11:45 AM ^
That in John Beilein's system the 4 is a wing player. That's where we stuck Sims all of last year because EXpe Udoh was playing the 5. Sims' inside scoring presence is necessary in JB's offense and I'd be surprised if we see him move to the 4 and get stuck on the wing. That being said, here's how I think we start the year.
5 - Sims
4 - Novak
3 - Manny
2 - Douglass
1 - Grady
By the end of the year the hope is that Morris is good enough to take over the point so we have two credible PG's. Lucas-Perry is not a PG, he's a SG. He'll split time with Douglass at the 2. By the end of the year we'll probably (without regard to injury and all of that unseen attrition) see something like this:
5 - Sims/ Morgan/ Cronin
4 - Novak/ Gibson
3 - Manny
2 - Douglass/ LLP/ Vogrich
1 - Morris
I think Novak rotates between the 4 and 3, backing up Manny when he needs a breather, and playing the 4 for the most part. Morgan at the 4 doesn't make a whole lot of sense, but he'll spend time there and at the 5. JB still isn't working with what he'd ideally want at each position. If they bring in Regan and Zeigler in the 2010 class then he'll have someone who can supposedly fill in for Manny (who should be gone) and Regan who is his perfect 4.
2010 (aka an absurd projection featuring kids who haven't even verballed yet)
5 - Cronin
4 - Regan
3 - Zeigler
2 - Douglass/ LLP
1 - Morris
That would be a JB lineup. Again, this is all catastrophically bs and a ridiculous projection.