Bad Luck or Bad Defense? 3-pt Hot Streak Against UM
Here are the 3-pt field goal stats of our opposition from the last five games:
Nebraska | 09/18 | 50% |
Illinois | 09/14 | 64% |
Maryland | 10/15 | 67% |
Pennstate | 08/19 | 42% |
Iowa | 11/19 | 58% |
As you can see, only once in the last five has a team hit fewer than 50% of their 3-pt attempts against Michigan, and even that was a pretty good 42% clip from Penn State.
On the recent WTKA roundtable, it was suggested (by Craig Ross, I believe) that this was just "bad luck". So, what do you all think? Bad luck, or bad defense? If other teams stop having the hot hand against us (regression to the mean and all), will the season suddenly seem a bit more salvageable?
January 14th, 2017 at 6:56 PM ^
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January 14th, 2017 at 7:09 PM ^
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January 14th, 2017 at 7:44 PM ^
January 14th, 2017 at 9:54 PM ^
Please. Those numbers would not be out of place for FT% for teams. These numbers will regress towards the mean. It may take awhile though...
January 15th, 2017 at 9:33 AM ^
January 14th, 2017 at 6:57 PM ^
January 14th, 2017 at 6:57 PM ^
January 14th, 2017 at 7:05 PM ^
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January 14th, 2017 at 7:24 PM ^
January 14th, 2017 at 7:43 PM ^
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January 14th, 2017 at 7:59 PM ^
How is that questionable? Open 3 pointers are like layups for a lot of these guys.
January 14th, 2017 at 8:22 PM ^
Not for X Simpson. I watched him at halftime taking 3's. He went 1 for 9 from the corner. Alot of people hate on Walton. I fear for our offense when he's gone next year.
January 14th, 2017 at 8:29 PM ^
Yeah X has been a disappoinment for sure. For a guy who was known as a scorer in high school he has done absolutely nothing on the offensive end all year. People keep saying they can't wait for Walton and Irvin to graduate, but the guys behind them aren't getting their minutes for a reason.
January 14th, 2017 at 10:23 PM ^
Questionable how much defense affects 3 point percentage? Haha. I have seen this and it still is the biggest load of crap. Great defense can sometimes prevent a 3 pointer from even being shot so it's an absurd claim. That is on par with sabermetrics guys in baseball who have numbers that show a player being better than another because of his WAR when it doesn't show you that the particular guy can't hit in the clutch. Some things are just obvious. Defense affects shooting and anyone who has played basketball knows this.
January 15th, 2017 at 6:39 PM ^
January 14th, 2017 at 9:15 PM ^
January 14th, 2017 at 6:58 PM ^
January 14th, 2017 at 7:21 PM ^
January 14th, 2017 at 7:01 PM ^
The various advanced statistics guys scoff at the relevance of 3-point defense; they argue that what matters is not giving up attempts, as opposed to what happens once the guy goes up to shoot.
It's weird though. Every game it seems like someone on the other team goes NBA Jam and starts draining stepback threes. Some of it might be that guys are able to get into a rhythm on the many open looks they do get, and that confidence leads to them draining the heat-check ones, too.
January 14th, 2017 at 7:20 PM ^
This is correct.
At the same time, would be interested to do a SportsVU-style sophisticated analysis to see how open U-M's opponents have been on their shots. I would guess it would show that this streak is just bad luck.
There will be regression to the mean. Along with death and taxes, the law of large numbers always prevails.
January 14th, 2017 at 7:32 PM ^
I think it's a bit like turnover margin in football. Any trends wash out at a large scale, but it's not entirely random, i.e., Alabama. Michigan, for as long as Beilein has been coach, has sucked at closing out shooters. Kenpom numbers support this too.
January 14th, 2017 at 7:40 PM ^
January 14th, 2017 at 7:04 PM ^
January 14th, 2017 at 7:07 PM ^
That is the starting point.
January 14th, 2017 at 7:09 PM ^
January 14th, 2017 at 7:10 PM ^
January 14th, 2017 at 7:11 PM ^
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January 14th, 2017 at 7:20 PM ^
January 14th, 2017 at 10:34 PM ^
This is not directed at you at all Jmo--I just think it's a good indicator that the program is in a bad place when people have to start using crazy statistics to defend why the team is getting their asses handed to them instead of being more concerned with holding them accountable for poor performance. As far as KenPom goes, I don't give a fuck if we're ranked #46 or #50 or whatever number we are. It used to be if you weren't in the Top 25 you were unranked.
January 14th, 2017 at 7:19 PM ^
on UMHoops the other day: while closely contested v. poorly contested looks don't seem to yield that much statistical variation, getting lots of looks at all is a different thing, as is wide open looks. And I would add this: teams are getting good looks not so much because our 3-pt D is bad but because they are getting great dribble penetration and kickouts.
January 14th, 2017 at 7:28 PM ^
January 14th, 2017 at 7:35 PM ^
January 14th, 2017 at 7:33 PM ^
January 14th, 2017 at 7:41 PM ^
That teams have tons of control over how many 3 pointers their opponents shoot, but almost none over how many they make. So the high percentages are very likely the result of running bad.
January 14th, 2017 at 10:17 PM ^
January 14th, 2017 at 10:38 PM ^
OR, as Bill Parcells said, "You are what your record says you are."
January 14th, 2017 at 7:50 PM ^
DEFENSE
January 14th, 2017 at 7:56 PM ^
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January 14th, 2017 at 7:57 PM ^
Players look lost at times trying to find a man. What I can't figure out is why. And how far they've fallen from the early season run. Man D is talking, switching, telling people whether to go high or low around screens, and getting your ever-lovin' hands in a shooter's face. My only guess is that as more games are on tape teams see how to beat the D and the team doesn't have vocal leaders. Morris and Novack aren't walking through that door. Hopefully last night's meeting is the spark of leadership for our seniors.
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January 14th, 2017 at 8:05 PM ^
January 14th, 2017 at 8:08 PM ^
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January 14th, 2017 at 8:10 PM ^
January 14th, 2017 at 8:25 PM ^
5 games is about 1/6th of the regular season. Not that small
January 14th, 2017 at 8:28 PM ^
January 14th, 2017 at 8:32 PM ^
Well, when you're judging a team's performance in a given season you have to make due with that season's stats. Good defensive teams don't get burned by 3 point shooting like this.
January 14th, 2017 at 8:36 PM ^
January 14th, 2017 at 8:49 PM ^
They go hand in hand. Obviously if you're giving up a lot of open 3's teams will take those open 3's. I think there is value in advanced stats but this idea that a contested 3 is the same as an open 3 is ludicrous.
January 14th, 2017 at 9:51 PM ^
i doubt many teams are coached to shoot contested 3s. contested 3s typically occur at the end of the shot clock. the whole point is "limiting 3s" because that means the D is contesting them, thus preventing them, and forcing the O to look for a different shot.
January 14th, 2017 at 8:52 PM ^
January 14th, 2017 at 8:35 PM ^