B10 West 2019 Final Standings? Crystal ball it.
This was touched on yesterday in the "Michigan hype and thoughts on rest of B10" thread. Most of the comments were on the hype, so looking for Board’s thoughts on the other side of the conference?
Looks up for grabs. No clear dominant team. Every team with some uncertainties. So ...
1) Who wins the division?
2) What do the standings look like at the end of November?
My Best Guess Final Standings
- Northwestern: 6-3 (winner of division by virtue of head to head over Minny)
- Gophers: 6-3
- Nebraska, Purdue, Iowa: All 5-4
- Wisconsin: 4-5. (Getting Michigan, OSU and MSU out of the East is brutal. Potentially rolling with a true freshman QB …)
- Illinois: 2-7
Extra Credit Bold Prediction: Illinois will pull off at least one upset. I’m going with a home win over Wisconsin. Badgers play in Champaign in between games Michigan St. and Ohio State. Brandon Peters exacts some revenge.
August 4th, 2019 at 11:32 AM ^
1. Nebraska
2. Iowa
3. Wisconsin
4. Northwestern
5. Purdue
6. Minnesota
7. Illinois
Only way Illinois beats Wisconsin is if Taylor misses the bus.
Edit: both UN and UI finish B1G at 6-3 but UN beats UI in final game of the season. UW and NU both finish B1G 5-4 but UW wins head-to-head. Purdue finishes 4-5 in B1G play. Minnesota finishes 3-6 in the B1G and Illinois at 1-8.
To be fair, Paul Chryst is still their coach, and he has been known to forget Taylor is on his team.
Iowa
wisconsin
nebraska
Purdue
NW
Minny
Illinois
August 4th, 2019 at 11:33 AM ^
Purdue wins the B1G west.
August 4th, 2019 at 11:34 AM ^
Wisconsin, Iowa, Nebraska, NW, Purdue, Minny, Illinois
Slipping this in here. DPJ has been practicing, Charbonnet has been full speed, Shells today. Intensity picks up quite a bit.
Helmet and shoulder pads certainly provide an escalation of contact in 11-on-11 situational drills. Drills that will concentrate on down and distance, angles of pursuit, lineman blocking and the DL fighting them off with different techniques. Certainly more contact for the backs and receivers with the secondary. Only a couple more days of two hand touch left. There isn't supposed to be any tackling or players hitting the ground yet, but some guys get a little carried away. Players will be diving for balls, breaking up passes and lineman engaging in longer blocks. The speed of the game really picks up today which will cause some collisions from time-to-time. Full pads are really what starts to separate the players next week. That's when these position battles will really get going and we can learn something. Anything we hear in the first few days doesn't mean a whole heck of a lot.
August 4th, 2019 at 11:52 AM ^
I’ll be curious to hear how the d-line looks, how’s ambry? And the db depth? And I’d prefer to hear turner and charbonnet separating from the pack. Maybe a umbig11 update in a week, thanks
August 4th, 2019 at 12:58 PM ^
Yeah it’s probably a bit early for any telling information yet. I mean any separation at this point likely just means the other guy had an off-day. If Tru has a bad practice, does that really mean Charbonnet or Turner are pulling away?
That’s why I said update in a WEEK
August 4th, 2019 at 10:48 PM ^
Ambry isn’t ready yet. Working him back slowly. Optimistic for the opener.
Anything we hear in the first few days doesn't mean a whole heck of a lot.
So you're saying we should ignore your entire post, umbig11?
RF - I don't think he really wrote anything that provides much of any valuable information, so I don't think he is leading you astray.
In other words, it doesn't mean a heck of a lot.
Sure, if you knew that DPJ was practicing and that Charbonnet was going full speed. Also, the kind of things that the team were doing at practice in shells. Disregard as much as you like.
Thanks umbig11. I don't get the vitriol. I appreciate any information. My intent above was that one poster's attempt to use your words against you was not necessary.
Was this even necessary?
Not sure if it was intentional in your case but the number of snarky responses directed at this guy is kind of over the top.
I think most find his intel informative but everyone can choose to take it or leave it without the snark.
;-)
I thought the "/S" was so obviously "/S" in my previous post that to post the "/S" wouldn't be necessary.
But since I underestimated both the sensitivity level and the density level of today's crowd...
?⚡
(obvious snark is obvious)
Cheers man..
But even UMBig11 missed the 'obvious snark'
Its cool though...but he does get a lot of flack for trying to give a bit of intel that no one has to read or take serious.
No problem, and no offense intended.
Yes, umbig11 does get some amount of flak, and IMO, it's totally uncalled for. I appreciate the info he posts here, it's usually info I wouldn't likely be getting if not for him and/or a couple others who are much more connected than I am.
I can understand him being a little defensive about it with all the undeserved flak he get from a very small but VERY vocal handful of detractors. I've never been a part of that group, though, so I thought it would be safe to "poke the bear" a bit with my earlier post.
Yes. He is a fucking fraud.
Anything we hear in the first few days doesn't mean a whole heck of a lot.
Tease
August 4th, 2019 at 11:36 AM ^
Wisconsin but don't sleep on Purdue.
August 4th, 2019 at 11:37 AM ^
Minnesota 7-2
Nebraska 6-3
Iowa and Northwestern both 5-4
Illinois and Purdue both 3-6
Honestly not sure about Wisconsin.
Wide open but I am going with Iowa. They are usually good every 4 years and have two potential first round picks.
They had two first-round picks this past year too. But maybe they’re due.
August 4th, 2019 at 11:45 AM ^
7-way tie, all of them at 4-5?
More seriously: Nebraska, Minnesota, Northwestern, Iowa, Wisconsin, Purdue, Illinois.
Frost may be unlikable, but he can coach, and I expect UNL's defense to improve a lot.
Minnesota has the most favorable cross-division schedule and has good talent back.
I don't trust Iowa. Sure they have Nate Stanley and good lines. But they had that last year too (plus 2 great TEs). I picked them based on all that and then they went 5-4, losing to every B1G team they faced that had a winning conference record. I'm going to default to them under-achieving again this year.
Wisconsin is the team I really expect to fall off: no true QB and a very difficult schedule. I know about Taylor but I wasn't overly impressed with him against ANY of U-M, NW or Penn State last year, the 3 Badger games I saw the most of
(Taylor went for 185 vs PSU but 80 was on 1 run where a LB make a foolish mistake. Outside of that he was fairly average, and he never got the necessary yardage on 3rd down plays where they really needed it).
I have a feeling the Wisconsin QB situation isn’t as bad as people are thinking. They did bring in a top recruit at QB who, by all accounts, has more arm talent than Hornibrook.
Now obviously if he were in any other offense, his inexperience would hurt him more. But Wisconsin is going to rely on the run and play solid defense. The kid can flat out throw the ball. It’s a matter of whether he can keep his composure when he does throw it. They’re not going to need him to go out and win games. As long as he can protect the football, there’s a possibility their QB situation is actually improved over last year.
I ask myself this question about Wisconsin: will their offense be better than they were last year with a new starter at QB - potentially a true fresh -- and potentially an OL that may be good but is slotting in several new starters? I think at best a push. And they were just average last year. 48th in efficiency.
Good receivers and tight end, but can they get them the ball when teams stack the box? They scored 17 points or fewer in four games last year with a multiyear QB starter - ugh. And JT has carried the ball 600 times the last two years. Is that sustainable?
I just have a hard time seeing their offense scoring enough points against good competition.
Like I said, I wasn’t very high on Hornibrook to begin with and that freshman has significantly more arm talent than Hornibrook. If the kid can handle the mental aspect, I think he could be a day 1 upgrade in many ways.
As for OL, Wisconsin seemingly reloads at OL every year and the prevailing belief is that the backups at OL we’re far off the starters last year. If I recall, the FFFF from that game echoed that belief, and Wisconsin fairly routinely brought in 6-7 total OL for plays.
I don’t think it’s a big stretch to think their offense will be just as good, if not better than a year ago. And that their defense will improve.
Im not predicting CFP for them or anything, I just don’t see them being worse than last year
Yep Murtz could be better than I anticipate, and I fully expect him to be better than Hornibrook, but just not in first year, and not in first half of first year. Though plenty of examples of true freshman doing pretty well in year 1 recently -- and I'll gladly tip my hat if he's one of those. They open on the road at night (evening) in Tampa with USF, who should be decent. Will be interesting who they throw out there.
I believe Mertz is going to end up being a significant upgrade over Hornibrook. Next year is going to be a real challenge for him. I cannot imagine that opposing defenses will not stack the box and run blitz to mitigate Taylor and then just keep on coming if Mertz doesn't hand off. So, Mertz will have plenty of opportunity to make the opposition pay-but it is going to be one helluva challenge too-we're not talking Kansas HS football here.
August 4th, 2019 at 11:45 AM ^
Iowa. Good to above good offensive line, experienced QB, 3 really good running backs, and a deep and talented defensive line. You don’t need skilled WR’s to win the West.
Prove me wrong.
August 4th, 2019 at 11:50 AM ^
If Illinois knocks off Wisconsin, the Badgers are going to start looking for a new HC.
I think it’s fair to say that if any team loses the Illinois, that school should look for a new head coach.
Then maybe Illinois should look for a new coach.
August 4th, 2019 at 11:51 AM ^
So tough to predict as that division has a lot of parity, but...
1 Nebraska
2 Purdue
3 Northwestern
4 Iowa
5 Minnesota
6 Wisconsin
7 Illinois
I would say that there are 6 teams with a legitimate chance to win that division. Whereas our division is probably just 3 teams this year.
August 4th, 2019 at 12:10 PM ^
Totally agree,
Gonna be VERY interesting this year in B1G West (When's the last time we said that)
Anybody, aside from Illinois, has a fighting chance to win the conference.
So no one thinks Brandon Peters is gonna light shit up and win the West for the Illini? I agree with those who think Illinois will be better than last.
August 4th, 2019 at 12:01 PM ^
Purdue (7-2) 9-3 - Purdue wins division with H2H win over Nebraska
Nebraska (7-2) 10-2
Wisconsin (6-3) 9-3
Iowa (4-5) 6-6
Minnesota (3-6) 6-6
Northwestern (3-6) 6-6
Illinois (1-7) 4-8
August 4th, 2019 at 12:03 PM ^
OP, you have the West collectively going 33-30 which means you expect the East to go 30-33? That feels optimistic to me (toward the West).
Seven of their nine teams being above .500 in conference play - with Wisconsin being one of only two under .500?
Very hot take!
Cheers.
August 4th, 2019 at 12:53 PM ^
Remember that B10W teams play each other in more than the play the East, so a bunch of teams ending up above .500 is not unreasonable, especially if the parity plays out. They had 4 teams above .500 last year and I think Minny and Nebraska join that crowd this year.
How many B10 games do we think Rutgers wins? (for comparison, Illinois won 2 last year and I think they're a better team this year). I think Rutgers is 0-for B10. So there's 9 East losses right there.
On Wisconsin, yep, hot take. I'll own that. I don't like their schedule at all, and I think they're going to be too one dimensional against good defenses, given QB situation, especially early.
There's only 21 cross over games, and I have B10W going 10-11 in those games. Getting handled in tough match ups. Beating up on lower part of the East. I think they go something like 10-11, 9 - 12, 8-13 at worst against East. Here's a look from my East POV.
- Rutgers 0-3 - L@Iowa, LMinny, L@Illinois
- Maryland - L@purdue, L@minny, WNebraska
- Indiana - L@Neb, LNorthwestern, L@purdue
- MSU - 3-0 - W@Northwestern (toss up game for me), W@ Wisconsin, WIllinois I'm probably higher on MSU than most people. They remind me of 2016 Michigan team. Not explosive on offense, but I expect them to be functional on O with a lights out D.
- Michigan - W@Wisco , W@Illinois, WIowa
- OSU - 3-0 - W@Neb, WWisco, W@Northwestern (think this one is close)
- PSU - 1-2 - LPurdue (a bit of a wild pick but this kind of upset happens all the time), W@Iowa (seem to have Iowa's number) and L@Minny. Could as easily be L at Iowa and W at Purdue. Either way, I'm predicting PSU drops two of these 3 games.
Best thing about it is that no one will remember or care about anyone's preseason predictions in 4 months! So bring on the hot takes!
I don't like your math. To get the records in your OP, the West would have to go 12-9 in the crossover games.
Yep you're right. Good catch. +1 to you. I'd transposed a couple Ws in my spreadsheet.
- Northwestern 6 - 3
- Minny - 6 - 3
- Neb - 5-4
- Purdue and Iowa 4-5
- Wisconsin (even hotter take!) - 3-5
- Illinois - 2-7
West goes 9-12 in cross overs.
August 4th, 2019 at 12:55 PM ^
I have the west at 29 - 33, which is a lot more realistic. Whoever wins the West would be 4th in the east at best. They’ll steal a few games, but no way they have an overall winning record.
August 4th, 2019 at 12:11 PM ^
I don't care which team we beat in the BIG TEN Championship Game.
August 4th, 2019 at 12:28 PM ^
Winner will be Nebraska or Minnesota. Both 9-3 types.
Purdue is intriguing but a step behind. 8-4 or 9-3.
Iowa and Northwestern in the 7-5 mess.
Wisconsin 6-6.
Illinois 4-8.
August 4th, 2019 at 12:30 PM ^
Its a crapshoot. Whoever wins the West will get thumped by the East champ and probably be a meh 8-4 team.
August 4th, 2019 at 12:35 PM ^
Can someone please remind me how the rankings work by divisions? Is the total big ten record the critical factor or is it the record against your division?
August 4th, 2019 at 12:46 PM ^
Did you mean the standings?
The Big Ten record determines who wins the division. Records within the division is only used for tiebreaks.
August 4th, 2019 at 12:46 PM ^
Wisconsin - 6-3
Iowa, Northwestern, Purdue - 5-4
Nebraska, Minny - 4-5
Illinois 1-8
Iowa 7-2
Wisky 6-3
NW 5-4
Minny 4-5
Neb 4-5
Pur 3-6
Ill 0-9
Divisions are a joke. Just get rid of them and go with the top 2 teams.