The Athletic's Austin Mock gives UM the best Natty odds by the slimmest of margins
I guess this is paid content so I won't cut and paste except for a preview image. Meek at The Athletic has one of those models that runs a bunch of simulations on the rest of the season, then simulates playoff picks and winners. Today he's got Michigan as the team with the best chances of winning the title, by just a very slight margin (23.61%) over Georgia (23.55%).
I know the models all suck, but it's fun clickbait I guess.
https://theathletic.com/5020942/2023/11/01/college-football-playoff-projected-chances-week-10-2023/
November 2nd, 2023 at 8:40 AM ^
After the way they've behaved as an organization the last month: Fuck the Athletic.
November 2nd, 2023 at 8:43 AM ^
on brand mgoboard reply
November 2nd, 2023 at 11:51 AM ^
...Stew Mandel's username reveals a desire for DEEP cover
November 2nd, 2023 at 8:46 AM ^
1. This model is by Austin Mock, not Austin Meek.
2. I agree on The Athletic. I canceled my subscription after the crap that Stewart Mandel has said about this.
For anyone with journalism training, what is taught as a standard about anonymous sources? To my knowledge, ESPN, yahoo, and The Athletic have not used a single named source in this whole thing. I get that people want to be able to speak freely, but isn't there some sort of ethical imperative for the writer to give the reader enough information on the source to be able to understand the biases that the source has, especially when the accused is not allowed to defend itself?
November 2nd, 2023 at 8:51 AM ^
ah, shit. i would correct the name in the OP if I could. Mods, feel free
November 2nd, 2023 at 8:56 AM ^
One of those guys needs to change his name!
November 2nd, 2023 at 9:23 AM ^
Preach!!!
This is horrible that Michigan can’t even defend itself or heck even admit it. How come no one can come with a report from an unknown source that this 💯 percent all connor stalions and nothing to with staff higher ups.Probably because that’s not the case.
November 2nd, 2023 at 9:37 AM ^
Not exactly a rock of journalistic credibility.
(from the old sidebar for the arrivistes)
November 2nd, 2023 at 9:44 AM ^
I wound up cancelling my Athletic subscription because I didn't realize I was still paying for it - I had some level of access via the NYTimes subscription but apparently I had signed up for it years ago and was paying for it.
What got me was how mediocre a lot of the CFB coverage was. I think some of the pro coverage is better because those writers tend to know a bit more but when Stewart Mandel is a lead writer and editor for your sport there's a cap on quality and it's not high enough to justify compensating NYT for dramatically overpaying for that site.
November 2nd, 2023 at 10:00 AM ^
It was a solid value for Michigan coverage when Nick Baumgardner and Brendan Quinn were actively covering the teams. As they've moved up (good for them) it just hasn't felt that great.
November 2nd, 2023 at 9:52 AM ^
Absolute joke of journalism this whole thing. Still waiting for anything of substance.
November 2nd, 2023 at 10:00 AM ^
Anonymous sources, and even named sources, are supposed to get a response from the other side in "real" journalism. That response in the same article, which would show some intent at journalistic integrity, seems to be what's missing from most of this. What we have instead is whole articles with a singular bent, and then whole other articles with their own singular bent, so the message from Journalism is just whoever is yelling the loudest and longest and most consistently wins.
November 2nd, 2023 at 10:28 AM ^
As a masters student in newspaper journalism at the S.I. Newhouse School of Public Communications at Syracuse in the early 80s, I was taught that unnamed sources were only to be used in matters of vital importance to the public when all other efforts at getting information on the record were exhausted. Likewise, the motives of sources were to be carefully measured.
But I am old and that was in the aftermath of Watergate and the Janet Cooke scandal at the Washington Post was recent and on everyone's minds. Things have changed with the incentive to gather clicks. The general denigration of journalism (especially among the Washington press corps IMHO) into source journalism and stenography has created an atmosphere where reporters seem to feel themselves more obliged to their sources than their readers.
Maybe that's what they teach at Medill now. /s
November 2nd, 2023 at 11:26 AM ^
I also canceled my membership. I don’t subscribe to read gossip. That shit is free everywhere on the internet. Talk to me about sports. Not speculation.
November 2nd, 2023 at 9:13 AM ^
Does this seriously give Frames Janklin a better chance than Nick Saban at winning a natty, while both teams are currently sitting on the same record? WTF?
November 2nd, 2023 at 9:46 AM ^
I assume this model and the Football Nerds' model are in a race for the worst one out there.
November 2nd, 2023 at 8:42 AM ^
I asked my neighbor's cousin's best friend and he told me that Michigan is 100% in the playoff, 100% the champion and 100% DAWG.
Same level of statistical validity (and utility) as the Athletic and ESPN, so high fives all around!
November 2nd, 2023 at 8:42 AM ^
I got nosed out by McSomething, but I need to say it anyway. Fuck the Athletic.
November 2nd, 2023 at 8:43 AM ^
Can Austin Meek create a model that makes him a better writer?
November 2nd, 2023 at 8:52 AM ^
Uh Michigans chances are ackshually zero percent because eventually the Big Ten will get so tired of Ryan Day calling them every day crying that theyll give Michigan the mega death penalty
November 2nd, 2023 at 9:53 AM ^
That’s really what they’re trying here. Won’t work. Still getting stomped. Nice try. At least you’ll have ZERO excuses after. Haha whoops
November 2nd, 2023 at 8:58 AM ^
I've pored over the inner workings of the model and determined that it overestimates Penn State's chances of winning a national title by 1.8%.
November 2nd, 2023 at 9:01 AM ^
What's really incredible to me is the pretty high likelihood that both UM and OSU make it to the playoff again. Feels like the PAC-10 teams can't get through clean, the SEC pretty unlikely to get more than one, and the B12 shut out.
November 2nd, 2023 at 10:30 AM ^
I think the most likely scenario where the SEC gets two teams is Alabama and UGA winning out, meeting in the SEC championship, and Alabama winning a game played at the highest level. It just depends how many zero loss teams there are at the end.
November 2nd, 2023 at 11:22 AM ^
I'm going to go out on a limb and say that their playoff percentages, at least, are very off. There is no way that we have a 72% chance and OSU has a 71% chance of making the playoffs. One of those teams is going to lose The Game, and the loser doesn't have a better chance of making the playoffs than FSU (60%), or UW+OR combined (68%), or Tex+OU combined (29%?!?). If Texas or OU wins out, they're in. If Oregon wins out, they're in; UW can even drop a game, and as long as they win the Pac Championship, they're in. FSU can also drop a game and will still be above the B1G non-champ if they win the ACC.
Really, it should be something like M has a 49% chance, and OSU a 48% chance, of making the playoffs. One of them almost certainly will, and the other almost certainly will not.
November 2nd, 2023 at 9:33 AM ^
Did his editors suddenly approve positive articles about UM? Did they lose institutional control and this was just one rogue "journalist"? The unsullied Journalistic Oversight Committee should jump on this "shocking" development.
November 2nd, 2023 at 9:54 AM ^
Signs controversy aside, this season is a collision course between Michigan and Georgia and has been since September. Every week, that becomes more clear and only bad luck on the level of M vs. TCU last year will derail that train.
November 2nd, 2023 at 10:04 AM ^
It makes no sense to me all the love OSU gets. I don’t see how they could match the offense from any of the teams pictured except PSU (who have the same problem). I would bet on any of those teams vs. OSU.
November 2nd, 2023 at 10:46 AM ^
They're undefeated against one of the toughest schedules through eight games. It's been ugly on offense, and they had to get a bit lucky against ND, but the resume is there.
Resumes don't win football games, but they do qualify you to play them.
November 2nd, 2023 at 12:52 PM ^
I have struggled a bit with the love for OSU this year. They have won every one of their biggest games, but I watched a few and they were slugfests, and they looked like they were just barely escaping getting pantsed. then i'd wake up the next morning to unversal media praise for their grittiness. i can't tell if they are #1 or #20