Anyone else finding it harder to suppress expectations for the upcoming FB season?
I remember at the end of last season I was wondering if we'd ever get back to .500 in '09.
Then we wrapped up our recruiting class and I felt a little bit better, like .500 wasn't out of the question anymore.
As the tidbits from spring practice rolled in, I became confident in a .500 season.
After attending the Spring Game, .500 became the lower bound on my expectations.
As our players qualify and we hear positive reports from the insiders, I find myself expecting 8 wins this season.
At this rate I may be disappointed with a loss to UF in the NC game by the time the season rolls around. Anyone else experiencing ever increasing expectations and having to remind yourself of the struggles we will face to ward off potential disappointment come September?
Temper.
Its the NC game or bust I say...
back-to-back-to-back
No. At beginning of last season, even I felt confident enough to predict that Michigan would go 8-4. Oops. As the saying goes, "hope springs eternal." We'll find all sorts of signs to indicate that we'll win 8 games this year, but I rather hold off. Too many questions for this team because we are playing so many underclassmen and have true freshmen at key positions (QB, S); hard to gauge how we'll do. We'll know plenty by the end of the Western Michigan game.
I've already put 1/6 of my annual salary on the following lines:
Over 12 wins
Over 400 points scored
Under 100 points allowed
Over 6 All-Americans
-23.5 UM/USC
Only 1/6?!
I feel the same as you, but there is nothing saying our safety position is any stronger than last year. If it were not for that, we might have been 8-4 last year.
I do occasionally get high expectations, but then I keep reminding myself of the ND game, Brandon Minor's first half of the season, etc. I suggest you do the same as to not get crushed or be pleasantly surprised.
With the offensive line and QB play that we had last year, I don't think we could have gone 8-4 even if we had All-Americans at both safety spots. It's tough to win two-thirds of your games when you're scoring 20 ppg.
I'm very optimistic for the coming season and that is not generally my nature. I think our running game will be pretty dominant and call me crazy, but I think we get eight, maybe even nine wins. Edit: I'm totally fine with any negative points I incur as the result of this post. If I get enough maybe I'll even bookmark it.
I'm not going to call you crazy because I am as optimistic as you are. That being said, I know I'm setting myself up for disappointment because it is unlikely to happen with a freshman QB, new DC, and 2nd year in a new system.
The thing is, I look at those deficiencies and I can say:
1) While we will have a freshman quarterback, the position will almost certainly improve from where it was last year
2) jg2112 likes to cite Minnesota last year, a team with a new defensive coordinator who went from 1-11 to 7-5 with a much improved defense
3) In the second year under Rich Rodriguez, WVU went from 3-8 to 9-3
Will all three of those things go totally right for Michigan? Almost certainly not. But we seemed to have such poor luck at times last season that we are bound to improve based purely on fewer turnovers and just overall better play by a pretty talented team. I keep finding myself becoming more optimistic, but I think the second half of our schedule is kind of brutal, so I'm sticking with 7-5 as my expectation. I really, really hope we get there
I cite Minnesota because I'm an alum and I have football season tix (new stadium geeyah). But I'm a Michigan fan always, #1 full stop without exception.
Minnesota had nowhere near the talent last year that Michigan has this year. Their O-Line sucked, their defense with the new DC Ted Roof went from 119th to 80th or so. That, as well as a significant positive turnover ratio the first 8 games, is what led to their turnaround. Plus, they had a cake schedule.
Michigan is set up similarly. Even out the turnovers, increase the time of possession (which was being done at end of 2008), be competent on defense (Michigan 2009 has way more talent defensively than Minnesota 2008), and the schedule has more "gimmes" (I know) than 2008. We should be fine.
Yeah, I know you're a Michigan fan, I was just giving you credit for the comparisons you've made about Minnesota and Michigan with new defensive coordinators. I think that, in this case, assuming GERG knows what he's doing, the defense should vastly improve because of the coaching change, similarly to what happened to Minnesota last year. Whether the blame for last year's defense can be put solely on Shafer or not, the coaches were clearly not on the same page and the team suffered for it. This year, I'm hoping that doesn't happen
Also, have fun with your giant scoreboard. I grew up in Minnesota, so I have a bunch of friends that attend the University of Minnesota. Sounds like the stadium is looking pretty sweet
If your expectations are anything more than 7-5 than you need to seriously take some time off from following the team.
are pretty grating lately. I don't think it's me that needs some time off from following the team. I'm just trying to generate some conversation during the dead period.
It was sarcasm. I agree, I too find myself daydreaming about us going 9-3 and have to slap myself back to reality.
but you have to look at a bunch of things rationally. Record aside, it's hard to find many bright spots last year. Possible exception was somewhat of a gel in the o-line and the running game looking adequate at times over the last 1/2 of the season. Our defense got lit in the 2nd half by Illinois, PSU and the Bucks, among others. I'd like to think a lot of it was attributable to turnovers and the failure of the offense.
So, our hopes are pinned on improved play and contributions from newcomers. It should be damn hard to extrapolate that into 9-3 or 10-2.
They should be improvement across the board, and they should surprise a team or two. But I can't see us being the favorite in at least 4, maybe 5 games, and frankly WMU looms a little scary.
I happen to share somewhat in your optimism, though. Minor could have a sick season as long as the o-line continues its pace of improvement from last year. And no doubt we have a loaded receiving corps.
Whatever the case, the next 7 weeks can't go by fast enough.
... when my heart said 8 wins and my brain said yikes. This year, I'd probably settle for six wins and be perfectly content. Of course I say that now. Come December, I might be foaming at the mouth.
I have it on good AUTHORITY that this MICHIGAN team could end up anywhere from 4-8 to 9-3 this season. Or anywhere from 0-12 to 3-9. Or from 10-2 to 12-0.
50/50, no sugarcoat, yada, yada...
(Note: my first expectation was 6-6, and I've been holding to that)
I'm forcing myself to adhere to a 7-5 prediction. I just have to slap myself once in a while to get there. Nothing wrong with a little optimism, as long as it is somewhat controlled.
I've been wondering the same thing.
I generally try to be cautiously optimistic, but watching the spring game highlights and reading fluff has gotten me pretty excited.
Last year I was excited and thought we would surprise a lot of people. Someone posted on this site that when the odds for big games first came out, it was a good risk to bet on michigan because as the season started, and people saw that we were pretty good, the spreads would change significantly. Well they did, but not in the direction I was expecting. I'm generally not a betting man, but I lost a bit of dough on what I thought were some pretty sure bets.
HOWEVA, I see a difference this year. Again, maybe this is me being too optimistic. I don't think our defense will be much worse this year (in fact, could be better), and I think our D struggled so much largely because of how incompetent our O was. Last year we had one of the worst O lines and pretty much the worst QB situation in college football. This year we should have a solid O line and a QB who can not only hit open receivers (OMG remember what that's like!), but could also scramble and run. Even if Tate the Great gets hurt, DR can't possibly be less accurate than Threet/Sherideath, and he can run. Also lots of new waterbug playmakers/gamechangers who could break free and score any moment. I see that making a world of a difference, and will build (rather than shatter) confidence for our D.
8 wins I'm happy
7 wins I'm content (and happy if we win a bowl)
6 wins I'm slightly dissapointed
less than 6 I'm upset.
I'm fired up already. Not sure on wins and losses but I do expect an exciting competitve team to take the field every week. By the end of the year we will all be excited about a bowl game and speculation for 10 will be through the roof.
TATE OWN SHIT!
November 20th, 2009 at 7:52 PM ^
Damn. proof I don't know shit. I am sure I will be just as excited next July 9. Go Blue Beat the Bucks
November 20th, 2009 at 9:42 PM ^
I'm sure the only reason I didn't express a similar sentiment in this thread was that I was too busy searching expedia for tickets to Pasadena. How much has changed in a few short months...
Oh well, next summer I too will be right back to square one on the irrational exuberance front.
Last year was so terrible and now all of us have been exposed to what it feels like to suck. if we do it again this year, there will be grumblings but it won't be as painful because of all the intangibles (freshman QB, new DC, etc, etc) we are very good at making excuses (myself included) so I'm sure no matter what we'll have a good one.
because of all the intangibles (freshman QB, new DC, etc, etc)These are not intangibles. At all.
IDTYKWTWM
Yes, that is a superb acronym.
....of the moronic posts we see online (I think I saw one here), where a player's strengths are listed as the "intangibles." Or, when Herbstreit starts talking about how a player has "all the intangibles." They don't even realize what they're saying cannot be proven right or wrong.
I can't remember who it was, but someone once posted a screencap of a brilliant ESPN graphic showing "intangible statistics" from a basketball game: steals, blocks, etc. Unintentionally hilarious.
that was exactly what I remembered. Thanks. A point to you.
Classic.
As far as linguistically erroneous things I hear from announcers, one of my favorites from last year had to be at the end of the 4th quarter of the Illinois game -- "Well, when we come back from this break, Michigan will have their backs against the wall both physically and literally!" Really.
Yeah, "literally" is a favorite of sportscasters for some reason. I can't remember who it was, but one of them had a great one last season: "He tries to hit the hole and the defense literally stones him at the line!"
Nothing wrong with setting the bar high right away. I was of the .500 mindset last year and thinking, "i know it will be a mess AT TIMES, but the offense will be fun to watch..." To no avail.
While I know mistakes will be made, I do not expect or accept anything close to what we saw last year. I am confident that, excluding Zoltan, every aspect of the team's play this year will improve.
can't fucking wait until kickoff. any fellow chicagoans watching the game at a bar?
Damn the torpedos
They wrap fish in yesterday's blog
let's get on the bus head over to Kzoo and get this party started early, fuck playing them at the Big Crib lets goooo!
yeah I'm excited and totally reasonable.
I’m still thinking 6-6 at the end of the season and who knows with a bowl. I love Tate just as much as the next person, but we haven’t seen how reacts under the pressure of facing the 1st team or even getting hit in the mouth. I’m just hoping amidst getting hit, he can still throw an accurate ball. The sad part for me is even when I think we’ll lose ~6 games I’m going to be just as pissed that we lose each game as I would be if I thought we were going to be undefeated. I hope they surprise me!
I mean, I get excited for the start of every football season, but this year is different. Coming off that terrible campaign from '08, I can't wait to see Year 2 of the RichRod era and how the team has improved from last year. I'm not gonna make any predictions; I just hope we make a bowl game, whether that's at 6-6 or 12-0 (hey, we can dream, right?). Either way, September 5th can't get here fast enough.
I can't wait to see this team play. I think the offense is going to be very exciting at times this year. Tate will look like a freshman at times as well. I think RichRod is building something great here. I just hope he has a chance to continue if we have another bad year this year.
MINOR RAGE.
Yes, I feel this way. I always feel this way. If we win less than 10 games this season I'm gonna be shocked, brah.
We are trained to expect nothing but greatness.. And that is why the 00s have been so painful...especially last year..
Go Blue!
Last year our QB play and line play (first half of season) were huge disadvantages. Even with frosh QBs, the offense will be much better. Fewer turnovers this year and lightning quick three and outs, which will also lead to improved field position. This will help the defense be on the field less. Add in a good DC and better team chemistry...I think people will be surprised. I'm drinking the kool-aid...at least a few sips.
This is exactly what I was going to say. Please accept this MGoPoint along with it's accompanying "here here".
The QB play and the O-line are critical, more so in a spread offense.
Both will be improved (maybe not as much as we'd like but how can they be any worse), and this improvement will lead to less 3 and outs which should give a young defense some badly needed help.
I try to remain as rational as possible about the 09 season, the gaps, the unknowns, the inexperience; then I start looking at the amount of raw offensive talent, coupled with an expanded playbook . . . RichRod and McGee's playbook.
I go gooey.
I think we'll give up our share of points this fall, but if I was an opposing defensive coordinator I'd be on the sidelines with one of those cup-holder-helmets full of Pepto Bismol.
6-8 wins.
If you have low expectations, you can only be happy with our season. I think we'll do ok though and win around 7 games.
really intrigues me. I've been a Wolverine fan for two decades and am regretablly not rehearsed in the concept of low expectations. Is there some kind of guidebook I can read to make sure I do it right?
I look at the schedule, and that's why I'm thinking 6-6. I get used to thinking that we'll get better because we're Michigan, but that doesn't mean what it used to... yet.
I'm quite optimistic for the offense, in a relative to last year sense. But it's too easy to forget the defense, and if people keep converting 3rd and longs against us we are still in deep trouble. Safeties and defensive line are big weaknesses and I can't see a reason for confidence there.
means you probably expect to beat Western, Eastern, Indiana, State, Delaware St. and Purdue...
...and lose to ND, Iowa, Illinois, Penn State, Wisconsin, and Ohio State.
I see more wins there. At least 2.
I expected to beat Toledo...and Purdue...and Northwestern...last year. I just think we should wait until after the first game before expecting anything.