MMBbones

September 15th, 2020 at 12:14 PM ^

Won't down vote because having COVID has gotten even more confusing. Here in Florida, the rate of transmission has remained steady but the deaths from COVID have dropped to near zero. Thousands of people are getting it each day but no one is dying from it, in rough terms. Not that other health conditions besides death don't manifest.

Not trying to be political, just another screwball data point in this weird year. Here's the link so you know I'm not making stuff up:

https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/96dd742462124fa0b38ddedb9b25e429

 

 

Joined: 08/28/2008

MGoPoints: 9921

bronxblue

September 15th, 2020 at 12:22 PM ^

The problem with deaths as a barometer is that they are a lagging indicator; more time than not people die from infections they got 3-4 weeks before.  So the fact that deaths are trending down in Florida is a good sign but also points the the results of actions the state took over a month ago to cut down on large congregations of people.  

I do wonder if these will be a permanent leveling off or if the recent loosening of travel restrictions and bars/restaurants/schools reopening will lead to another surge.

Joined: 11/22/2008

MGoPoints: 171840

MGoBender

September 15th, 2020 at 4:16 PM ^

Also, the most common age for COVID is like 18/19 years old right now. So, some of the most healthy people in our society. No surprise deaths are down when positive tests are from younger people... but they can and do spread it just as easily as anyone. And more positive cases increases the likelihood of spreading it to someone who may not be able to survive.

That's to say nothing of non-death long term damage.

Joined: 03/26/2010

MGoPoints: 15128

Blue in Paradise

September 15th, 2020 at 12:23 PM ^

People are dying in Florida from Covid.  There are official figures which are like 100-200 per day, and if you don't believe that, local newspapers have obituaries which you can peruse if you are so inclined.

We live in Ann Arbor from April - November and the guy who owns / runs the landscaping company we use died this past weekend from Covid.  He was 42 years old and was seemingly healthy (of course he could have had health issues that weren't obvious or restrictive to his work).  Yes, it is pretty rare for healthy 40 year olds to die from Covid but it happens.

His crew called us last week saying he had gotten diagnosed with Covid and then yesterday we were told he died.  Heartbreaking as he had a young family.

Joined: 08/14/2016

MGoPoints: 36892

mgobaran

September 15th, 2020 at 2:16 PM ^

Didn't the CDC switch it's tune on COVID deaths re: underlying conditions. Where Cancer + COVID = COVID death at the beginning of this thing, and now it = Cancer. 

So yeah, COVID deaths for people without underlying conditions has always been very low. Doesn't mean it's not killing people anymore. 

Joined: 09/12/2012

MGoPoints: 22811

IncrediblySTIFF

September 15th, 2020 at 12:26 PM ^

i think this data would just prove that they are less likely to develop severe symptoms from COVID, not that the overall threat to their physical health remains par regardless of COVID.

As mentioned by another poster, you would need to study the long term effects, and even with all the data you would face the "correlation does not equal causation" fallacy

Also, are we taking into account the number of people infected by those healthy, athletic, college aged individuals?

FYI not advocating one way or another, just pointing out that looking at only short term effects on a small group of individuals is just a talking point and a very small piece of the puzzle, not reason to declare something universally true or untrue.

Thanks for elaborating on this

Joined: 03/26/2011

MGoPoints: 7962

carolina blue

September 15th, 2020 at 12:43 PM ^

Who said no one gives a shit about those that come in contact?  That’s part of risk abatement. The athletes themselves are the ones that play the game. If they are at greater risk, then no games are played, period.
 

Are they “more important”?  No, not in a general sense, of course not.


But in the limited context of “can they play the game?” yes they are because they are literally the ones that play it. Without them, none of it happens. Obviously there is a lot more involved than just them. But they are the ones that will be most frequently exposed to the sweat, spit, close physical contact of others. 

If we were to establish that they aren’t at any greater risk then, of course, we also need to address support staff and coaches and how to prevent contact with those individuals if necessary. But in my opinion the first question is “are the athletes at greater risk for this?”  If yes, then we’re done. If no, then let’s ask the other ones. You can obviously collect data on all groups simultaneously, but the first question I’m asking is about the athletes. That doesn’t mean I don’t give a shit about staff. 

Joined: 02/12/2014

MGoPoints: 30259

quixotehan

September 15th, 2020 at 1:31 PM ^

The excerpt posted suggested that statistic, but the screenshot removes important context.  Specifically, the top of screenshot describes Notre Dame's Covid response to the outbreak, the next paragraph (including the 60 death figure) is not specific to Notre Dame, although the screenshot hides the page break and context that would make that evident. In the attached source material (NY Time 9/11/20), the statistic is referenced as the number of deaths attributed to college outbreaks across the nation:

A New York Times survey of more than 1,600 American colleges and universities — including every four-year public institution, every private college that competes in N.C.A.A. sports and others that identified cases — has revealed at least 88,000 cases and at least 60 deaths since the pandemic began.  

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-college-cases-tracker.html?action=click&module=RelatedLinks&pgtype=Article

Joined: 07/18/2010

MGoPoints: 94

BlueRob

September 15th, 2020 at 4:48 PM ^

Gotta agree with Timmmaay on this one.  Testing positive means you have enough of the virus present in your system (primarily your nasal passage) to register a positive result.  Obviously you have been exposed if you test positive but you can be exposed and have negative results if you don't actually get the virus.  

A positive also does not mean you are sick, symptomatic, etc, just that the virus is in your system.

*could not open your link to read the article.

Joined: 09/02/2020

MGoPoints: 417

Infectious Dis…

September 15th, 2020 at 12:02 PM ^

Six active cases and no hospitalizations.

Congrats on still not understanding that 'cases' doesn't mean what you think it means.

Joined: 09/02/2020

MGoPoints: 182

bronxblue

September 15th, 2020 at 12:15 PM ^

These people tested positive for COVID-19.  That's a "case".  I guess I don't get what you're arguing here.

Yes, it doesn't appear any of these players suffered severe symptoms.  That's a good thing.  But if your larger point is that we all over-reacted to the dangers of COVID-19 because 75 people didn't have negative consequences, that's not a great argument.

Joined: 11/22/2008

MGoPoints: 171840

DTOW

September 15th, 2020 at 12:27 PM ^

I have a question and hopefully somebody with a medical background can answer it because I truly don’t know. 
 

I agree with the above statement that because 75 players for Texas Tech didn’t have severe symptoms doesn’t mean the virus isn’t dangerous for these athletes. But my question is how many athletes getting the virus without having severe symptoms does is take to consider that segment of population low risk? And also, when people say they shouldn’t play because we don’t understand the long term impacts of the virus, what is defined as long term? Months? Years? I don’t work in the medical field so truly just trying to understand. 

Joined: 08/31/2013

MGoPoints: 6381

AlaskanYeti

September 15th, 2020 at 12:07 PM ^

What’s also interesting is that 35-33 win they had over Houston Baptist. Must have been a real nail biter for the Red Raider faithful. 

Joined: 11/27/2012

MGoPoints: 7022

Gree4

September 15th, 2020 at 12:12 PM ^

Please excuse my ignorance because the link will not open up at work. That being said is a case when somebody tests positive, or when somebody is around an individual who has tested positive?

 

I have seen it reported both ways. 

Joined: 09/04/2020

MGoPoints: 13939

sleeper

September 15th, 2020 at 4:20 PM ^

My wife, my son (20 years old) and I all recently tested positive and have since recovered and are back to work. My sons only symptoms were a mild stuffy nose and loss of taste and only lasted 3-5 days, he was never to the point were he felt really sick. My wife was pretty much the same as him but had severe fatigue and hers lasted a little longer (7-10 days). I (51 years old) had a fever for two days, sinus pressure, loss of smell and taste, mild headache and fatigue. The worst of the symptoms for me was the constant headache and severe fatigue. My first symptoms were on 8/21 and I finally felt fully recovered around 9/11. 

10 out of the 20 people at my work all had it, all of various ages, almost all had the same symptoms as mine, with the headache and fatigue being the most prevalent and longest lasting.  

Joined: 11/02/2013

MGoPoints: 5721