247 Talent Composite: How far away is Michigan from competing in the Playoff?

Submitted by ScooterTooter on January 14th, 2020 at 11:06 AM

With another year of college football in the books and Michigan still searching for titles, I wanted to look at where the Wolverines stacked up in comparison to the playoff teams we've seen over the years. 247 tracks the talent on the roster and rather conveniently has done so since Harbaugh's first year at Michigan. 

What stands out: 

Talent matters, but only to the extent of coaching, conference and the state of your rival.

Alabama has made the playoff every year except this one and has been 1 or 2 in talent each year. It took an injury to their star QB to knock them out of this year's edition. 

Oklahoma has made the playoff four times with less talent than Michigan, but plays in a weak conference and their main rival has been down for a number of years. 

Clemson is in the same boat: Florida State routinely has more highly regarded players than Clemson, but due to the constant coaching turmoil, cannot put it together. 

Speaking of FSU, they combine with USC to squander the most talent on a yearly basis. Each team has never finished outside the top 6 in the composite and yet have not made the playoff over that time period. 

If you aren't in the top 2/3 in talent in your conference, there is almost no chance you make the playoff. Only two teams have - 2015 MSU and 2016 Washington. Washington was 4th in the Pac-12 and MSU was 4th in the Big Ten. And that's not even taking into consideration the fluke it took to get MSU in the playoff in 2015. 

So where does Michigan stand in all of this? Unfortunately, they have everything going against them: They play in probably the 1st or 2nd most difficult division in the sport as well as in the 2nd most difficult conference. Their main rival replaced a legendary coach with probably the only upgrade available and now his protege has taken over and appears to have them firing on all cylinders, so OSU falling off does not look like a solution to the problem. They've yet to recruit or develop a Burrow/Watson type to get them over the hump in the fashion of LSU/Clemson. While the program finally seems to have coaching stability, the inability to win big games has likely put a ceiling on the level of talent that can be brought in in any given recruiting cycle. 

You'll note that Michigan's best chance of making the leap occurred in 2016: Ohio State was down relatively speaking, Michigan was near their peak and likely underrated given guys like Glasgow, Stribling, Chesson, etc. + all the experience. Michigan came at the king and damn it all, they missed.

So unfortunately, the answer is what it always is these days: Michigan is toppling (some way, somehow) Ohio State  away from making the leap.

https://247sports.com/Season/2015-Football/CollegeTeamTalentComposite/

2015

Clemson 13

Alabama 1

Michigan State 23

Oklahoma 16

Michigan 9 (Ohio State 3)

2016

Alabama 1

Clemson 9

Ohio State 5

Washington 24

Michigan 8

2017

Clemson 9

Oklahoma 16

Georgia 4

Alabama 1

Michigan 7 (Ohio State 2)

2018

Alabama 2

Clemson 6

Notre Dame 10

Oklahoma 11

Michigan 8 (Ohio State 1)

2019

LSU 5

Ohio State 2

Clemson 9

Oklahoma 8

Michigan 11

 

MGoBoard

maize-blue

January 14th, 2020 at 11:13 AM ^

OSU is the roadblock.

Without OSU in the conference, Michigan goes to the playoffs in 2016 and maybe 2018.

But UM isn't going anytime soon until OSU takes a step back or UM plays over their heads and beats OSU. Since UM withers in big games, don't expect UM to be in the Final 4 for quite some time. Maybe they can make an expanded 8 team, if OSU doesn't blow them out every year.

Joined: 01/10/2013

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Monk

January 14th, 2020 at 12:23 PM ^

they could make it like the Alabama team that didn't win the division but still got in the playoffs, but they would need some things to break their way, basically the big-12 and pac 12 to not have a cfp team.  But they have to go 11-1 and the 1 loss being close to OSU, which hasn't happened in any season under JH.  The other way to get in would be a three way tie with say PSU and OSU, where UM wins the tiebreaker.

Joined: 12/25/2008

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ScooterTooter

January 14th, 2020 at 11:34 AM ^

This is the real question of the Harbaugh era: Why is Michigan - routinely a bottom half of the top-10 talent composite - trading wins with Wisconsin, a team who has never been ranked higher than 33rd? 

Penn State and Notre Dame make sense, they are roughly on par with the those teams. But there's no real reason Michigan shouldn't be at least 3-1 vs. Wisconsin. They shouldn't be 2-2 with two double-digit losses. 

 

Joined: 06/01/2017

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JPC

January 14th, 2020 at 11:40 AM ^

The 2017 loss gets a pass IMO since that whole season was a disaster. Even though 8-5 is a shit record, not losing the team was a good coaching job.

This year was bad though. Wisconsin made Michigan look like they didn't belong on the field against them. There's no way that a disinterested Alabama isn't superior to the Wisconsin team that embarrassed Michigan. The coaches failed against Wisconsin.

Joined: 10/13/2018

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Yost Ghost

January 14th, 2020 at 11:40 AM ^

Maybe there's something to the suggestion that motivating players on the road is not as easy as it is at home and the current staff isn't good at it. 

https://www.si.com/college/michigan/football/analysis-from-former-players-on-what-s-wrong-and-how-to-fix-michigan-football-v7eXDlgBuUqVW-z0SayBhg

 

There are a lot of things Coach Harbaugh is really good at, but pre-game pep talks is not one of them.

Joined: 01/18/2011

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ScooterTooter

January 14th, 2020 at 12:13 PM ^

Almost certainly we would have played in the Big Ten title game in 2016 and 2018. 

I know the schedules would be different but both Michigan and Wisconsin finished 7-2 in 2016 and Michigan won head to head. 

In 2018, both Michigan and Northwestern finished 8-1 and Michigan won head to head. 

Michigan's schedule was almost certainly more difficult those years as the West is better than the East, so moving to the East probably wouldn't have made a difference. 

Joined: 06/01/2017

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mitchewr

January 14th, 2020 at 11:29 AM ^

At this point, this has absolutely nothing to do with needing better recruits. Guys, we don't do anything with the talent we DO get! Just look at those composite talent numbers since Harbaugh has been here. We've out-talented every team in the B1G except for OSU and yet we continue to trade games with the likes of MSU, Wisconsi, PSU, Iowa, ND, etc.

At this point, there's a clear coaching and development deficit in the Michigan football program. We constantly "out-talent" our opponents and yet consistently struggle. And when was the last time we saw highly recruited and talented players come to Michigan and just light up the field?? MAYBE Peppers? Devin Bush Jr. was really good. Chase W. was really good....and uh...yeah. We aren't developing and improving our players with any level of significance and it shows because we have never won a game we weren't supposed to win and the only time this team has fought back and won after getting punched in the mouth (that I can think of at the moment) was that Northwestern game a year or two ago....NORTHWESTERN folks, NORTHWESTERN. While I respect the hell out of coach Fitzgerald, that team is so inferior talent-wise that it should never even come to that.

Point being is this: We won't get better recruits on any semblance of a consistent basis until we start proving on the field that we can fully utilize the recruits we already have. I mean my gosh, look at the putrid on-field numbers by our star-studded WR class we took a few years ago. We literally got the best WR in the country that year and the closest he ever got to 1000 yards receiving in a single season was 2018, coming in just over 600 yards. Or Nico Collins, or Tarik Black, or Oliver Martin, etc. Horrible numbers relative to the expectations when they first got here. 

And a lot of you will say "That's the QB's fault for not being able to throw the ball". And you'd be partially correct. But who's fault is it that our QBs are so mediocre? Who's fault is it that the best QB on the team can't throw further than 15 yards? Or who's fault is it that our WRs rarely get good separation or constantly drop passes that do hit them in the hands. 

After five years, it's abundantly clear that we have an issue when it comes to developing and coaching up the talent we do get and it shows on the football field because we consistently play down to our competition, despite having almost every conceivable advantage on paper, and we never play up to competition better than us.

We don't need to cry about the number of 5 stars we get, or how many guys are in the ESPN top 100....we need to do a better job coaching and developing the players we do have first. If we can demonstrate substantial improvement and development of the players we already have, that will translate to on-field performance and THAT will draw the better players in....that and handing out rolls of cash to players after games, but you know....who's counting

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Yost Ghost

January 14th, 2020 at 5:18 PM ^

Bo went:

8-4 or worse four times in 21 seasons

Lloyd went:

9-4 or worse four times in 13 seasons

Jim went:

9-4 or worse two times in 5 seasons.

If 9-4 is a failure then what does that say about Lloyd and Bo?

 

I think we need to pump the brakes on the hyperbole. 9-4 is not where anyone in the program or outside it wants to go but it's also not a failure. By that logic anything short of a NC is a failure.

 

Joined: 01/18/2011

MGoPoints: 223

Yost Ghost

January 15th, 2020 at 1:45 PM ^

Bo's last 4 loss season happened in 1987. They had bad conference teams back then too. Prior to Rutgers and Maryland being admitted teams like Northwestern, Purdue, Indiana, Minnesota and Wisconsin took turns as conference doormats.

Of UM's 8 wins that year, one was versus Northwestern (29-6). These were the Dennis Green/Francis Peay seasons where Northwestern went 2-9 or 3-8 every year. Another win was against Wisconsin (49-0) that was in the midst of the Don Morton era where they finished at the bottom of the conference almost every year.

Joined: 01/18/2011

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BahamaMama

January 14th, 2020 at 9:59 PM ^

We’ve given up our tickets after 30 years and there are 8 other families in our tailgate group doing the same this year. Partly because we’re tired of the ticket prices/fees, difficulty in making travel plans due to not knowing what time kickoff is, and last but not least - the current product on the field. Fully support the effort that is given by the players, but something is lacking and we will support them from our living rooms in the future.

Joined: 02/02/2017

MGoPoints: 1040

SilleyAce711

January 14th, 2020 at 1:59 PM ^

The level in which I disagree with your post is difficult to put into words.  Take a poll of all coaches in HS, College and the Pro level and Jim Harbaugh plus Don Brown will show up in the Top 20 for their development skills on every single card.  Blaming coaches on player development is the cheap and easy out that does not require an ounce of brain usage.  Don't take it from me - take it directly from the coaches mouths - :57 in listen to what Gattis had to say about Shea Patterson's lack of off season work that concerned him - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MrQmpXUvPpw&t=58s.   In a sport that is now dominated by the Quarterback Position, Michigan's QB choose a summer of playing golf over football.  Never once did any coach, any announcer, any side story or in game report ever call Shea Patterson the hardest worker on the team, a guy that put extra time in film study, extra time in the summer putting together workouts with the team - Hell the man wasn't even voted team captain as a Senior returning starter on his team.  Blame the coaches if it makes you feel warm and fuzzy inside, but Shea Patterson choose golf over championships and big wins.  Read articles about Rudock his only year at Michigan - he put in 8-10 hours per day at Bo hall to get ready for his only season which ended with him in the NFL.  Read about Justin Fields who doesn't even know what the campus looks like in Columbus since he spends every moment he can at the football complex, pull up video of Jalen Hurts lifting weights in the most intense session I can recall AFTER playing a full game, read about Joe Burrow's 30 hour film sessions and countless workouts outside of practice with his skilled players then let's do a fair evaluation.  I will bet my paycheck, that the QB's that led their teams to championships and especially the 4 that played in the playoffs put in three times the work hours that Shea Patterson did.  Coaches are only allowed a certain amount of hours and that is why in today's college football world - the Champions put in the work when no one else is watching which Shea Patterson did not do.  

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