24/7, Rivals, ESPN star ranking – limitations and insights
With the CFB season over, while hunting around for information, came across an interesting video that discusses the limitations of the "star" systems (24/7, Rivals, ESPN).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eVXWCnfLnQM
In brief: the more tangible measurements are important in the role, the better the predictive value – so 4/5 star RBs generally are more likely to be very good/great RBs in the NFL. But other positions like QB and LB – this doesn’t work as well. Longtime readers would know some of these points, but it is well done and liked the use of the Kaskey Kids football guys. (Too bad the company no longer has a license for the Wolverines)
Finally, the scoring system of some systems were aimed originally at the notion of getting drafted in the NFL, not necessarily how well they would play in college and in the NFL. Brian Cook noted this in a recent MGopodcast that the system is flawed as shown by recent UM results - missing the potential and/or the importance of the right training and coaching.
For fun, 24/7 composite ranking of recruiting classes under Jim Harbaugh:
- 2024: 15th
- 2023: 17th
- 2022: 9th
- 2021: 13th
- 2020: 10th
- 2019: 8th
- 2018: 22nd
- 2017: 5th
- 2016: 8th
- 2015: 37th
https://eu.freep.com/story/sports/college/university-michigan/2024/01/09/michigan-football-recruiting-ranking-247-talent-metric-cfp-national-champions-jim-harbaugh/72164921007/
January 28th, 2024 at 11:27 AM ^
If we could get to that 2019-2022 ranking range I think the dominance will continue for the foreseeable future w good coaching.
January 28th, 2024 at 11:39 AM ^
Do we have any intel on how / why Michigan's scouting department has killed it? I presume that JH wasn't exactly grinding high school tape in his free time. The only two people I know who were specifically flagged as excellent talent evaluators are no longer with the program (Courtney Morgan as a west coast spotter and Don Brown's through the connection with all the New England prep schools).
January 28th, 2024 at 12:06 PM ^
A different JH (Jay Harbaugh) seems pretty good at it. Hope we keep him.
January 28th, 2024 at 1:30 PM ^
It - superb hidden talent identification - is a consistent theme with Harbaugh teams at Stanford and Michigan, without having many/any of the same people involved, which strongly suggests it’s systemic.
January 29th, 2024 at 12:26 AM ^
My guess is that Jim Harbaugh recruited not just kids who had talent and athleticism, but those who brought passion for the game and a high competitive drive. Those were always things he emphasized. There have also been snippets over the years that he liked people who were multi-sport athletes, or at least those who would eagerly compete at another sport if they proverbially “rolled the balls out”.
Maybe it’s not just about coaching, but about bringing in high-character, hungry, coachable players, even if they lack star power. It’s probably better to have a high 3-star kid who works his butt off than a blue chip who rests on his laurels.
January 28th, 2024 at 11:39 AM ^
I agree.. Top 10 classes would be a good objective / goal for the program on an annual basis.
I would appreciate one little addition to the chart (and, I follow 247’s Team Talent Composite) - the addition is just a line item which notes when NIL was allowed - and, when the portal / transfer rule was changed.
Michigan’s approach toward NIL, which I agree with - will continue to face challenges when competing for prospects with programs who seem to offer Inducements, Pay for Play, and “very significant perks”.
The collegiate landscape is dynamic - and, I hope Michigan can sustain its culture and effectiveness in development.
Go Blue!
January 28th, 2024 at 11:41 AM ^
FWIW the "bad" 2018 class included some heavy hitters that were seriously underrated - Hutch, Haskins, Barrett, Bell, Schoonmaker - plus Moody (who as a kicker didn't get ranked) and a few guys who ended up transferring and played well at their new schools.
Harbaugh's staff clearly had a good eye for talent, even if the 247 "experts" couldn't see it that way. Hopefully that continues to be true.
January 28th, 2024 at 12:42 PM ^
The Athletic went back and reranked the 2018 recruiting class, giving points for on-field performance.
5 points: All-American, award winner, top-50 NFL Draft pick
4: Multiyear starter, all-conference honors
3: One-year starter or key reserve
2: Career backup
0: Minor or no contribution, left the program
Michigan came in at #3, behind Georgia and Clemson.
January 28th, 2024 at 12:54 PM ^
Your link doesn't work
January 28th, 2024 at 1:30 PM ^
Thanks for the assist! I'm not sure what the hell I was linking to there (some expired MGoBlog page?).
January 28th, 2024 at 11:59 AM ^
With the new B1G and SEC realignments and the NIL-Portal the way they are, I really don't see any team "dominating" going forward. Georgia, Alabama, OSU, Michigan etc..... will always be major players but now we have schools like Texas and Oregon - with oil money and Phil Knight (Nike) backing - making their presence known in the next few years. Just a different CF game today than it was even 2 to 3 years ago
January 28th, 2024 at 12:19 PM ^
How do you define “dominate”?
The NIL programs of a handful of schools will continue to be an influence - and you noted several teams that will be rather liberal with NIL monies. The teams - Bama, Georgia, LSU, A&M, Texas, Florida, Ole Miss, O$U, Oregon, Miami, and USC. Look at that list - it’s over ten teams.
Brown bagging is a tradition at many schools - and, anyone who doesn’t think it’s still happening needs to open their eyes.
The key for Michigan is - identifying under the radar, “high ceiling” prospects - like Sainristil - developing everyone on the roster - having players drafted into The League - and sustaining the culture. And, having a high caliber QB.
January 28th, 2024 at 2:09 PM ^
That was my point. The years of "dominating" - like Alabama, Georgia, Clemson, OSU over the last 10 to 12 years and Michigan the last 3 years - are long over. Just too many schools now with a chance at the NC with NIL and Portal in play. And keep in mind, the 12-team Playoff (more games to win) next year will decrease any team dominating like in the past.
January 28th, 2024 at 2:34 PM ^
NIL, as a bag-man replacement tool for inducing recruits, serves to dilute concentration of talent. More schools can have leverage in acquiring talent. My conclusion is that raises the value of coaching and development and that plays well into Michigan’s hand.
January 28th, 2024 at 3:40 PM ^
We need to pump the brakes a bit. Yes, we won the national championship, but we did it with an unprecedented amount of guys who stayed in college. Some this was NIL induced, some of this was Covid year eligibility, and a lot of this was the uniqueness of a true team with a common goal. This does not happen very often anymore and this can’t be relied upon to get us by in the future. This is what made us competitive. This was a unique time. Recruiting both HS and portal is going to need to be a focus for us more than ever. Culture is great, but unless we want to wait another 27 years for a championship, recruiting classes and stars DO matter. I’m not saying we don’t rely on our own scouting to also identify underrated kids, or that we need top 5 classes every year, but if we aren’t averaging around the top 10, it will be a collosal struggle.
January 28th, 2024 at 11:30 AM ^
On one hand we under-recruit for our brand through the lens of star-rankings.
On another, our development and focus on the LOS has taken us the farthest a team can go.
Will be interesting to see where Moore's strategy may align and diverge.
January 28th, 2024 at 2:23 PM ^
Yes, but not all positions are created equal, and this is the #1 problem with recruiting rankings.
1) 5* d-linemen are worth much more than 5* receivers and running backs. I'd even argue that a 4* d-lineman is worth more than 5* receivers and running backs. Look at Clemson and Michigan. Had their best years with efficient QB play and elite D-line play. Clemson had better QB play with Watson and Lawrence, but UM had better O-line play.
2) Years in program/college. A 4th or 5th year senior may not have the porfessional ceiling of a 2nd year sophomore starter, but will probably perform at a comparable level in college - specifically at positions like LB, CB O-line and safety - where much of the game is mental. O-line is similar, but also a position where so much is determined on development.
Balance rosters are key, but D-line and QB play win championships.
January 28th, 2024 at 11:35 AM ^
Has someone done the PFF vs star comparison across teams and positions? Would be interested to see. Or do you have to pay for anything PFF related?
January 28th, 2024 at 11:50 AM ^
That would be something that the recruiting services should look into doing. It would be pretty cool if they did, though I'm not quire sure they'd like the results.
January 28th, 2024 at 11:38 AM ^
It’s going to be very interesting to watch OSU this year. They have a team absolutely loaded with 5 stars which means some of they won’t be playing as much as they would like. Add in the pressure on Day to win it all and now BoB in the mix and the potential for problems expand exponentially.
I wonder if you have a team with too many alleged superstars if the unhappiness in the locker room will overshadow the talent on the field. I guess we’ll see.
January 28th, 2024 at 11:56 AM ^
All those 5 stars yet a vacuum of talent on the O line. Maybe the butterfingers center they got from Alabama will stop greasing up his hands before every snap, but I think they are still weak as hell up front.
January 28th, 2024 at 12:08 PM ^
IMO - despite Air Raid / pass heavy offenses - the game still “really begins” in the trenches. The OL is the most intricate position group on the field - and, that is the foundation regardless whether teams play on Fridays, Saturdays, or Sundays.
This past November - to their credit - the Buckeyes had a solid ground based series that resulted in a TD. But, they went away from that to leverage their receiving corps.
Those boys in Columbus have pushed all their chips into the center of the table. I wonder what the O$U v Oregon game looks like.
January 28th, 2024 at 1:01 PM ^
Would it be mean for opposing fans to chant BUTT-ER FIN-GERS every time he snaps the ball?
Yippee ki yay!
January 28th, 2024 at 12:10 PM ^
I peeked at OSU's schedule and came away with a what the fuck...Prior to "CHEETERZ!", their fanbase mantra was "Michigan played a weak schedule", of course. I thought with the addition of the PAC refugees that they might have do more than beat us and Penn State to make some noise. Yeah...a game in Oregon. Otherwise it's MACrifices, rebuilding/awful B1G programs and Iowa in the Shoe with their mighty offense. Five stars across the board and only three games that won't require 12 turnovers to lose. I'll enjoy jumping on boards to point that out when they puff out their chests.
January 28th, 2024 at 12:23 PM ^
What you described is why a Michigan win on November 30th would be the coup de grace…
January 28th, 2024 at 12:26 PM ^
Can happen - does happen from time to time in given seasons. Alabama and Georgia have seemed to handle it well for years. Unfortunately, OSU's schedule seems to shape up nicely to smooth over rough spots without racking up losses. Oregon, is the most fascinating test in the first half of the season and that program could also have some 5 stars not playing as much as they'd like.
Going to be a really fascinating college football season. I like UM's chances to sneak into a CFA berth if Moore gets his staff right and can just keep what he has. Fingers crossed through the summer.
January 28th, 2024 at 12:41 PM ^
I agree.
https://mgoblog.com/mgoboard/moore-introductory-press-conference-open-thread#comment-245236753
January 28th, 2024 at 12:51 PM ^
Can't wait to see this unfold.
January 28th, 2024 at 2:11 PM ^
Ohio will probably be very good. But their 21 and 22 teams were just as loaded, with CJ and Marv, and still lost. And there’s always a decent chance that a team loaded with (paid) 5-star mercenaries could implode due to ego, selfishness, and greed. Happens plenty.
January 28th, 2024 at 11:40 AM ^
Here’s the thing, there are tangible and intangible traits/qualities that make a good football player. Does somebody actually love football? Are they football smart, or are they just athletic and do well at camps? The star system has enough cache and legitimacy because of results, but there are obviously outliers. Michigan has been struggling in recruiting for a while now and for a program of their caliber, it’s baffling. There is no way in hell to continue the success we’ve witnessed recently without a significant uptick in recruiting.
January 28th, 2024 at 11:45 AM ^
Cachet.
Unless you mean that it's hiding star players away in places inaccessible to the public.
January 28th, 2024 at 12:07 PM ^
My guess is now that other teams can’t negatively recruit against us by accurately asking players “do you know if the HC still be the HC when you get there?” things will start to improve.
Weak NIL + uncertainty at HC < results on the field
January 28th, 2024 at 1:09 PM ^
Good point. It was messing with our heads. Had to definitely mess with recruits heads.
January 28th, 2024 at 10:09 PM ^
Absolutely. Moore is an ace recruiter so I do expect an improvement.
January 28th, 2024 at 11:43 AM ^
Elite teams (in terms of the 247 Talent Composite) very rarely underperform on the field. But having an 'elite' team is by no means a necessary condition for elite results. Coaching certainly matters.
(I'm working on a diary where I compare coaches along these two dimensions from 2015-23. Hopefully at the beginning of this week).
January 28th, 2024 at 12:04 PM ^
Your diary entry will be very interesting. To my untrained (and somewhat color challenged) eyes any correlation in the chart you posted seems pretty rough, but the trend(?) lines do make sense. Wondering if that's Clemson populating almost the entirety of the upper right.
January 28th, 2024 at 12:17 PM ^
The colors for the ACC and SEC are probably too similar. Upper right (elite 'talent' and elite results) are primarily Alabama, Georgia, and a couple of OSU.
I'll have individual years with team labels in other graphs.
January 28th, 2024 at 10:58 PM ^
This data is really interesting; while their is a clear and obvious correlation between recruiting results and improved on field play, the spread of these residuals is huge and indicates there really is something to be said for culture, coaching and all of the other exogenous variables.
January 28th, 2024 at 12:04 PM ^
Totally disagree with us not being able to continue our success with our current state of recruiting. What's happening is our superior game coaching and player development both mentally and physically.
Go Blue!
Digme 71
January 28th, 2024 at 12:11 PM ^
I actually find the rankings increasingly helpful by viewing them through the lens of the mgoblog rule about risers vs. those who fall. Time and time again, I’m noticing that the pool of best college players is composed of guys who stick at the top w/o slippage + the guys who are trending up towards the end of the process.
January 28th, 2024 at 12:16 PM ^
And I’ll just add in a second note - darn I really wish we’d landed Jordan Shipp and Brian Robinson. Both have made big moves up the rankings and seem poised to do well at major positions of need (WR and now DT for Robinson).
January 28th, 2024 at 12:34 PM ^
Yeah, and I think those are the type of guys that a little more, umm.. encouragement like OSU is using could swing the decision.
Not sure how UM nuances that NIL/Inducement conundrum. When you are one of the schools that their selective enforcement is targeting it is risky to cross those lines. FSU getting the current hammer for what appears to be far less improper than what you can glean on social media from Texas players about their program.
January 28th, 2024 at 1:50 PM ^
I always had the opinion that our recruits fall because they picked UM while others rise because they have a SEC school on their list. Also, how did Jordan Shipp rise while J Davis drop when he the one throwing him the ball
January 28th, 2024 at 4:43 PM ^
RE: Shipp. Dude tore it up during all-star week. That’s usually an important time for corrections, bc I recall sites were slowly dropping Will Johnson until he set everyone straight during his all-star event.
January 28th, 2024 at 12:15 PM ^
I think Harbaugh and staff clearly had a very good eye for talent and were good at finding guys who were underrated by the recruiting services. I’m sure Moore will do his best to continue that.
But it’s not as if there aren’t highly ranked guys that the staff doesn’t also evaluate as good players. I think Moore will try and get us engaged in more of these recruitments.
January 28th, 2024 at 12:18 PM ^
Someone on one of the MgoPodcasts mentioned that the vast majority of people who assign stars to the players have never played a down of organized football, so this leads to a lot of them following how others are assigning stars at the top of the range (i.e. top 200 or so). Furthermore, it means they spend a lot more time with top recruits to ensure they get that correct, than with lower rated recruits.
In short, you can get a good judgement from the star ranking services in the top 200sih, but beyond that its a total crap shoot. This is where we win.
January 28th, 2024 at 1:09 PM ^
Logically, if these guys were truly better at identifying talent than anyone else, college teams would be hiring them left and right as analysts. Working for 247 is probably an OK gig but you're not going to make bank doing it. A school like Bama could easily outpay 247 for their services. Evidently, no one thinks they're worth it.
January 28th, 2024 at 1:42 PM ^
Very good point. +1 Informative