2016 FB Realistic Recruiting Pool via 247 "Warm Interest" V3.0
Hello football junkies. A quiet time of the year so this post should get lost between favorite Leave it to Beaver episodes and Top bands of the 00s soon enough. But for a moment - some football talk.
This is version 3.0 of a monthly segment I will do of UM offers that are (as a floor) receiving "modest" interest, utilizing 247's "warm interest" gauge. V2.0 (April 24th) was here and V1.0 (March 26th) was here.
As always this has all the caveats which one should read before complaining about anything from this methodology. We know it's not perfect. This is just a way to organize the overwhelming amount of offers (eventually headed to 200ish) down to a manageable level (40-50ish).
Aquaman was kind enough to comment on methodology of the "warm interest" on the first thread so I'll copy/paste that here:
The "temps" are usually set by how our analysts agree on where a certain prospect is leaning, but if a prospect reaches out and wants his page a certain way, we always go with their wishes.
Good example is Jeffrey McCulloch (http://247sports.com/Player/Jeffrey-McCulloch-47648). Michigan is in his top group with Texas, Bama, LSU and probably A&M among others, but he wanted his page to reflect that he's even with everyone, even though we know they're not.
It's about as good a basic gauge as you'll get on a prospect's interest. We try to avoid situations where it appears the interest is being embellished. In fact, I'd probably move Curtis Robinson and Isaiah Chambers among others to "cool" at this point.
The one group this methodology misses are those committed elsewhere who are strongly considering UM - so for that I am just going by common knowledge. I've only put Desmond Fitzpatrick, Tony Butler and Lavert Hill in this group. If there are any others, just make a comment and I'll adjust. (I am not including Hayes in this as he still seems like a unicorn.)
Also it doesn't account for a position filling - i.e. multiple RBs are still "warm" interest for UM even if that position seems full. I'll continue to include just in case.
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If it seems quiet in the last month it is because it has been. The prior 30 day period saw 4 commits; this 30 days had none. And very little new movement at all in terms of strong interest - outside of Wr Brad Hawkins moving a bit towards UM and Lavert Hill and Donnie Corley moving away, not much happened.
Changes since V2.0:
- New commits - 0
- New Michigan "leaders" in ballz - none
- New warm interest (Offense) - RB Kiante Enis, RB Vavae Malepeai, WR Jack Jones, WR Austin Mack, TE Michael Irvin Jr, OT Jean Delance, OT Will Fries
- New warm interest (Defense) - DE Ron Johnson, DE Jimmie Taylor, DE Daniel Joseph, DT Keyshon Camp
- No longer Warm - RB Robert Washington (Syracuse), #2 TE Devin Asiasi (Uncommited), OT Michael Jordan (OSU), DE Josh King (most think MSU early June)
OFFENSE (24 players, 6 UM is a "leader")
| Pos | Name | State | Starz | Ntl Rnk | Pos Rnk | Leader | # Pred |
| RB | Rakeem Boyd | TX | 3 | 406 | 23 | N/A | |
| RB | Kiante Enis | IN | 3 | 713 | 52 | UM 50% / Indiana 50% | 2 |
| RB | Vavae Malepeai | HI | 3 | 742 | 53 | 100% Oregon | 3 |
| RB | Toks Akinribade | IN | 3 | 799 | 60 | UM 75% / Indiana 25% | 4 |
| FB | N/A | ||||||
| WR | Dylan Crawford | CA | 4 | 68 | 8 | USC 62% / ASU 25% | 8 |
| WR | Jack Jones | CA | 4 | 70 | 4 | USC 71% / UCLA+UM 14% | 7 |
| WR | Ahmir Mitchell | NJ | 4 | 74 | 5 | OSU 67% / Rutgers 22% | 9 |
| WR | Donnie Corley | MI | 4 | 105 | 14 | MSU 73% / ND 13% | 15 |
| WR | Austin Mack | IN | 4 | 131 | 20 | OSU 90% / UM 5% | 20 |
| WR | Brad Hawkins | NJ | 4 | 142 | 25 | South Car 56% / UM 31% | 16 |
| WR | Tre Nixon | FL | 4 | 231 | 43 | ND 75% / Duke 25% | 4 |
| WR | Desmond Fitzpatrick | MI | 3 | 328 | 56 | UM 79% - Louisville commit | 28 |
| WR | Donald Stewart | NJ | 3 | 885 | 130 | UM 100% | 5 |
| WR | Korey Banks | GA | 3 | 942 | 91 | UM 100% | 4 |
| TE | Naseir Upshur | PA | 4 | 137 | 4 | Miami 40% / UM 20% | 10 |
| TE | Michael Irvin Jr | FL | 3 | 601 | 26 | Miami 100% | 26 |
| OT | Ben Bredeson | WI | 5 | 26 | 4 | Wisc 79% / UM 17% | 24 |
| OT | Devery Hamilton | MD | 4 | 236 | 25 | Maryland 50% / Stanford 50% | 3 |
| OT | Jean Delance | TX | 4 | 94 | 11 | Texas A&M 53% / OU 27% | 15 |
| OT | Alex Akingbulu | CA | 3 | 392 | 39 | UCLA 100% | 2 |
| OT | Will Fries | NJ | 3 | 387 | 37 | PSU 79% / Rutgers 21% | 14 |
| OG | Terrance Davis | MD | 4 | 87 | 2 | UM 60% / Maryland 40% | 10 |
| OG | Michael Onwenu | MI | 4 | 183 | 6 | UM 78% / OSU 22% | 9 |
| OG | Josh Sills | OH | 3 | 1595 | 83 | N/A |
DEFENSE (27 players, 3 UM is a "leader" - kicker not incl.)
| Pos | Name | State | Starz | Ntl Rnk | Pos Rnk | Leader | # Pred |
| DE | Xavier Kelly | KS | 4 | 180 | 10 | Nebraska 67% / UM 33% | 3 |
| DE | Erick Fowler | TX | 4 | 77 | 5 | Texas 100% | 8 |
| DE | Ron Johnson | NJ | 4 | 201 | 11 | PSU 67% / Rutgers 25% | 12 |
| DE | Bryson Young | CA | 4 | 294 | 19 | USC 100% | 2 |
| DE | Connor Murphy | AZ | 3 | 358 | 22 | UM 67% / ASU 33% | 3 |
| DE | Jimmie Taylor | NC | 3 | 752 | 45 | 100% NC | 2 |
| DE | Khalid Kareem | MI | 4 | 187 | 13 | Bama 60% / MSU 20% | 5 |
| DE | Daniel Joseph | IL | 4 | 258 | 16 | UM 50% / MSU 50% | 2 |
| DT | Rashan Gary | NJ | 5 | 1 | 1 | Alabama 48% / UM 32% | 31 |
| DT | Chris Daniels | TX | 4 | 114 | 14 | TCU 56% , Texas A&M 33% | 9 |
| DT | Keyshon Camp | FL | 4 | 213 | 20 | Miami 50% / FSU 50% | 2 |
| LB | Dontavious Jackson | TX | 4 | 123 | 5 | Texas 55% / OU 27% | 12 |
| LB | Jaquan Yulee | VA | 4 | 151 | 7 | North Carolina 83% | 6 |
| LB | Caleb Kelly | CA | 5 | 18 | 3 | Oklahoma 100% | 16 |
| LB | Devin Bush Jr | FL | 4 | 217 | 9 | FSU 100% | 17 |
| LB | Camilo Eifler | CA | 4 | 265 | 19 | Washington 100% | 2 |
| LB | Jonathan Jones | FL | 4 | 467 | 33 | UM 78% / LSU 11% | 9 |
| LB | LaMar Winston | OR | 4 | 230 | 16 | 83% Oregon / 17% UW | 6 |
| CB | David Long | CA | 4 | 153 | 13 | Washington 50% / USC 33% | 6 |
| CB | Wayne Davis | VA | 3 | 329 | 30 | OSU 56% / VA Tech 44% | 9 |
| CB | Lavert Hill | MI | 4 | 179 | 17 | UM 56% / MSU 38% - PSU commit | 16 |
| CB | Lamar Jackson | CA | 3 | 473 | 29 | N/A | |
| CB | Tony Butler | OH | 3 | 598 | 54 | 60% OSU / 40% UM - Pitt commit | 5 |
| S | C.J. Pollard | CA | 4 | 251 | 10 | 100% USC | 9 |
| S | Andrew Pryts | PA | 3 | 372 | 21 | 100% Penn State | 11 |
| ATH | Devin White | LA | 4 | 86 | 8 | 83% LSU | 18 |
| K | Quinn Nordin | MI | 3 | 1100 | 1 | 100% UM | 11 |
*Bolded dudes who UM is a crystall ballz leader or 50/50.
I have the crystal ballz leader and # of predictions on the far right of the table. The # of predictions is helpful as a 75%/25% split among 4 people is not as useful as that same split among 20 people.
The part where I over analyze:
- Not much different then comments from last version. I am perplexed at the lack of interest by TEs in a Jim Harbaugh offense. And higher end wide receivers. There is some mild movement towards UM from South Carolina on Brad Hawkins but that's about it in that department. And #2 overall TE Devin Asiasi has gone from warm to cold.
- Still tons of work to do on the defense. A few new warm interests on the DL but nothing at all in the back 7 -- which was already void of interest. Lavert Hill seemed to be going UM's way a month ago and now MSU's way if he does flip. He is a King guy ... as is Corley. Corley seems to be headed to MSU, and supposedly they want to play together. Outside of that UM has almost no interest from anyone in the back 7 outside of Jonathan Jones. Who was the only player in this group of warm interests to fall substantially since the last 247 ranking - he fell 130 spots overall and 11 within his position group. There does not seem to be another LB in America with 1 crystal ball is in UM's direction - very strange considering all the playing time 2016 LBs could get very quickly at UM with all the losses in veterans UM will have at that position in the next 12 months. Similar comments for DBs - aside from Hill and Pitt commit Tony Butler (2 guys committed elsewhere) there doesnt seem to be a crystal ball in America for a DB pointing to UM at this point.
- Almost total lack of OH representation. 1 low rated OL and mid rated Pitt commit Butler...that's it. Very un-Michigan situation.
- Yes there is still time - but there are 28 less days then the last time we said there is time. Aside from DT Gary and DE Murphy ...both guys with personal connections to UM personnel there is not much action out there on the defense. Hopefully some movement happens around camp time in June.
whatever the date is unless they are an early enrollee.
There is time to change guys as they see how the program operates.
Michigan is also pursuing a lot of guys who are making late decisions and aren't likely to change their decision date to appease the Michigan fan base so we have a choice of waiting or taking someone the coaching staff feels will not be as good.
They have a lot of offers out there but they are handling them differently. They may not all be executable. It's not like Harbaugh hasn't done this before. We may have the most exciting NSD ever and if that is what happens I will be very happy that day.
Well, when we kept having disapointing season after disapointing season I never felt any recruit was safe. But if your team keeps winning, and meets or exceeds expectations almost every recruit will stick. Of course you loose some kids to the Alabama and OSUs of the world, but once you reach that level of on field results at a school like Michigan you shouldn't be losing those players anymore.
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I'm not going to worry at all about recruiting until about the day after the tOSU game in November.
It's interesting reading for me and I like not being surprised by the names but bottom line, if and when the wins come the recruiting and Harbaugh! effect will occur.
I believe Korey Banks is a cornerback. At least thats what all the recruiting services have him as. Or are we recruiting him as a WR?
I don't know.... I have him classified as 247 classified him. Seems Jim is willing to flip guys a lot so how we recruit certain positions doesn't seem to matter much - a DB could go to WR and vice versa... unless said WR is 6'5.
We are recruiting Korey Banks as a WR.
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Think I'll go listen to The Cure now, maybe some Morrisey, thanks.
I think there was (and is) a lot of belief he is not truly going to end up at PSU by next Feb. He has been visiting UM and MSU lately, the latter more recently.
Unfort since 5/1 there have been 6 picks for MSU and 0 for UM. All the UM picks were from Jul-Aug 2014 when most thought this is where he would land. He was 100% UM thru early fall. That's when we used to have a loaded 2015 class and all was hopeful going into the fall of 2014. So you can think the UM crystal balls as legacy picks...
He is not really a favorite to UM by recent standards but I just used the total allocations to stay consistent.
is that it is a points-based "contest" that depends on being correct and how early you predicted it. You also cannot CB a recruit to a school that he has already verballed - so most who picked wrong switch their picks to the school they feel a recruit is most likely to flip - or keep their picks (to M) in hopes of a flip and higher points. M was an easy pick for those who missed on L. Hill to PSU and it's a no-lose proposition for those who were already wrong.
The trend to MSU is based on the assumption that D. Corley is headed to MSU and as a teammate at Detriot King, Hill may want to play with him in college. (Plus he recently visited MSU)
I am more perplexed at the defense. Jim is getting guys in on offense - maybe not as highly ranked as some expected but there are guys there. We are not getting defensive guys nor are we even getting serious interest on almost anyone on the defense despite having what are considered 2 elite recruiters in Durkin and Mattison.
What I did notice is on offense a lot of players are Midwest or Atlantic coast. Meanwhile a lot of the "warms" on defense are TX, CA, deep south - areas harder to recruit. Look at the LBs - its CA, TX, FL...only 1 guy from VA is an area we normally have a decent hit rate on. So those are more difficult conversions with a lot of local powers competing for those players and distance plays into it.
And again being shut out of OH is difficult - usually we'd get 3-5 kids a class from that state.
I know that OSU is cleaning up even more than usual, but most years there are enough high-rated recruits that OSU can't even take half of them.
MSU has gotten that 1 reciever and DeWeaver but the only other non-OSU commit I can remember being a big potential target for M was a TE that wanted to go to OSU but that they were probably already full at the position. -- Sorry I forget his name and didn't see him listed above.
It's a average or maybe slightly above average year in Ohio.
If you follow any of the Ohio recruiting sites (not just Ohio State, but state of Ohio), they are all unanimous in their utter bewilderment and disbelief at the lack of interest UM is showing in Ohio. Nothing like this has occurred in anyone's memory. It's as if HARBAUGH! laid down a mandate that he didn't want anyone wasting any time in the state or something.
There are AT LEAST 10 kids that are good enough to get Ohio State offers right now who won't get one because of numbers, and Michigan isn't even showing passing interest in any of them.
If this is actually true, then Harbaugh and his staff are making an inexplicably short-sighted mistake.
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He was the plan B. The plan A stayed at Kentucky after spurning UM. And we replaced that slot on the staff with a 25 year old with no college contacts and really not a lot to say on a recruiting trip other than I was the video analyst for a Super Bowl team. And he is close to their ages so I guess he can play Instagram.
Look if it took hiring Tom Crean to be our offensive coordinator to get Jim here, I'd support it so I'm fine with Jay as a necessary evil but I have not seen much utility from him and frankly some of the stuff he has put out I think is a bad look. Some guys are going to just have a lot more going for them than others. Vince Marrow was a big asset to UK in Ohio - they were competing with Mork for a ton of commits the past 3 years - guys who were plan Bs for OSU. At a school with zero football lineage. So we struck out on Marrow and dont really have an OH guy per se. We have a lesser known guy in Zordich. Who (I think) is supposed to be more of a PA guy although i think he is from/near Youngstown? Could be geting it wrong - lots of football guys of late are from Youngstown.
Just looking at the state there are a lot of kids already spoken for by ND and OSU and then guys who are free are guys like Ferns whose brother left UM.
http://247sports.com/Season/2016-Football/CompositeRecruitRankings?Stat…
- ND has the #1 and #4 player
- OSU has #2, #5, #6, #8, #11
- MSU has #9 and #12
- #3 is Ferns
- #7 is Sammons (massive OSU lean)
- #10 is Farrell (massive OSU lean)
That's your first dozen - only #12 has UM had any chance with and that was DeWeaver. I think guys like Eichenberg and Hausmann sort of gave UM a passing glance at one point but nothing serious.
To put in perspective depth the 14th-15th player in OH this year is 247 ranked low 400s to mid 400s so just outside a 4 ranking. These guys would be much higher ranked than a Jake Ryan, Frank Clark, or Henry.
For those curious we have 18 scholarship kids from OH. That is 21% of outstanding scholarships.
About half are starters or competing for a starter. i.e. Wilson, Charlton, Bolden, Henry, Butt, Kalis...Wormley, Smith, Thomas, Gedeon.
Which makes the shutout in OH a head scratcher. Should be kids in the 15-25 range we like ... if nothing else keep these relationships with OH HS coaches viable.
Notre Dame did go to a BCS Championship game recently(granted a blowout) among their many 8-5 seasons but still some success. Tennessee on the other hand might be more of the bagman variety. IDK
And when is the last time we tuned in to MGoBlog for a REAL HELLO post--u know--the 4 and 5 star high school type that we KNOW is going to DRIVE this program to national success. NOT the 3 star that is a 'sleeper' or that has a great HS highlight reel.
I'm just saying...big Brands do Bold and Big things and this is just not happening so far with these 2 big brands (UofM and Harbaugh).
And the 'realistic' list provided above is NOT going to get us to a B1G title, let along National prominence.
Is anyone else afraid that all is not as it seems in AA and that this is going to go down alongside of NewCoke as a failed experiment?
Just say'n.
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well see without Narduzzi in the box..
I think we're ALL hoping to see a rabbit (several?) out of the hat. But that's not how you build sustainable, predictable in my experience.
Poorly, except on game day
The truth is... and this might be a tough pill to swallow for a lot of people... that we really can't compete with those programs anymore. At least not on a yearly basis. Hard to achieve recruiting parity when your home state has less than half the talent of Florida, Ohio, Texas, Alabama, Louisiana, ect. There's going to be years when things line up and we're able to be competitive vs those schools, but expecting to go .500 vs them (recruiting and on the field) is honestly unreasonable. :(