2016 FB Realistic Recruiting Pool via 247 "Warm Interest" V3.0
Hello football junkies. A quiet time of the year so this post should get lost between favorite Leave it to Beaver episodes and Top bands of the 00s soon enough. But for a moment - some football talk.
This is version 3.0 of a monthly segment I will do of UM offers that are (as a floor) receiving "modest" interest, utilizing 247's "warm interest" gauge. V2.0 (April 24th) was here and V1.0 (March 26th) was here.
As always this has all the caveats which one should read before complaining about anything from this methodology. We know it's not perfect. This is just a way to organize the overwhelming amount of offers (eventually headed to 200ish) down to a manageable level (40-50ish).
Aquaman was kind enough to comment on methodology of the "warm interest" on the first thread so I'll copy/paste that here:
The "temps" are usually set by how our analysts agree on where a certain prospect is leaning, but if a prospect reaches out and wants his page a certain way, we always go with their wishes.
Good example is Jeffrey McCulloch (http://247sports.com/Player/Jeffrey-McCulloch-47648). Michigan is in his top group with Texas, Bama, LSU and probably A&M among others, but he wanted his page to reflect that he's even with everyone, even though we know they're not.
It's about as good a basic gauge as you'll get on a prospect's interest. We try to avoid situations where it appears the interest is being embellished. In fact, I'd probably move Curtis Robinson and Isaiah Chambers among others to "cool" at this point.
The one group this methodology misses are those committed elsewhere who are strongly considering UM - so for that I am just going by common knowledge. I've only put Desmond Fitzpatrick, Tony Butler and Lavert Hill in this group. If there are any others, just make a comment and I'll adjust. (I am not including Hayes in this as he still seems like a unicorn.)
Also it doesn't account for a position filling - i.e. multiple RBs are still "warm" interest for UM even if that position seems full. I'll continue to include just in case.
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If it seems quiet in the last month it is because it has been. The prior 30 day period saw 4 commits; this 30 days had none. And very little new movement at all in terms of strong interest - outside of Wr Brad Hawkins moving a bit towards UM and Lavert Hill and Donnie Corley moving away, not much happened.
Changes since V2.0:
- New commits - 0
- New Michigan "leaders" in ballz - none
- New warm interest (Offense) - RB Kiante Enis, RB Vavae Malepeai, WR Jack Jones, WR Austin Mack, TE Michael Irvin Jr, OT Jean Delance, OT Will Fries
- New warm interest (Defense) - DE Ron Johnson, DE Jimmie Taylor, DE Daniel Joseph, DT Keyshon Camp
- No longer Warm - RB Robert Washington (Syracuse), #2 TE Devin Asiasi (Uncommited), OT Michael Jordan (OSU), DE Josh King (most think MSU early June)
OFFENSE (24 players, 6 UM is a "leader")
| Pos | Name | State | Starz | Ntl Rnk | Pos Rnk | Leader | # Pred |
| RB | Rakeem Boyd | TX | 3 | 406 | 23 | N/A | |
| RB | Kiante Enis | IN | 3 | 713 | 52 | UM 50% / Indiana 50% | 2 |
| RB | Vavae Malepeai | HI | 3 | 742 | 53 | 100% Oregon | 3 |
| RB | Toks Akinribade | IN | 3 | 799 | 60 | UM 75% / Indiana 25% | 4 |
| FB | N/A | ||||||
| WR | Dylan Crawford | CA | 4 | 68 | 8 | USC 62% / ASU 25% | 8 |
| WR | Jack Jones | CA | 4 | 70 | 4 | USC 71% / UCLA+UM 14% | 7 |
| WR | Ahmir Mitchell | NJ | 4 | 74 | 5 | OSU 67% / Rutgers 22% | 9 |
| WR | Donnie Corley | MI | 4 | 105 | 14 | MSU 73% / ND 13% | 15 |
| WR | Austin Mack | IN | 4 | 131 | 20 | OSU 90% / UM 5% | 20 |
| WR | Brad Hawkins | NJ | 4 | 142 | 25 | South Car 56% / UM 31% | 16 |
| WR | Tre Nixon | FL | 4 | 231 | 43 | ND 75% / Duke 25% | 4 |
| WR | Desmond Fitzpatrick | MI | 3 | 328 | 56 | UM 79% - Louisville commit | 28 |
| WR | Donald Stewart | NJ | 3 | 885 | 130 | UM 100% | 5 |
| WR | Korey Banks | GA | 3 | 942 | 91 | UM 100% | 4 |
| TE | Naseir Upshur | PA | 4 | 137 | 4 | Miami 40% / UM 20% | 10 |
| TE | Michael Irvin Jr | FL | 3 | 601 | 26 | Miami 100% | 26 |
| OT | Ben Bredeson | WI | 5 | 26 | 4 | Wisc 79% / UM 17% | 24 |
| OT | Devery Hamilton | MD | 4 | 236 | 25 | Maryland 50% / Stanford 50% | 3 |
| OT | Jean Delance | TX | 4 | 94 | 11 | Texas A&M 53% / OU 27% | 15 |
| OT | Alex Akingbulu | CA | 3 | 392 | 39 | UCLA 100% | 2 |
| OT | Will Fries | NJ | 3 | 387 | 37 | PSU 79% / Rutgers 21% | 14 |
| OG | Terrance Davis | MD | 4 | 87 | 2 | UM 60% / Maryland 40% | 10 |
| OG | Michael Onwenu | MI | 4 | 183 | 6 | UM 78% / OSU 22% | 9 |
| OG | Josh Sills | OH | 3 | 1595 | 83 | N/A |
DEFENSE (27 players, 3 UM is a "leader" - kicker not incl.)
| Pos | Name | State | Starz | Ntl Rnk | Pos Rnk | Leader | # Pred |
| DE | Xavier Kelly | KS | 4 | 180 | 10 | Nebraska 67% / UM 33% | 3 |
| DE | Erick Fowler | TX | 4 | 77 | 5 | Texas 100% | 8 |
| DE | Ron Johnson | NJ | 4 | 201 | 11 | PSU 67% / Rutgers 25% | 12 |
| DE | Bryson Young | CA | 4 | 294 | 19 | USC 100% | 2 |
| DE | Connor Murphy | AZ | 3 | 358 | 22 | UM 67% / ASU 33% | 3 |
| DE | Jimmie Taylor | NC | 3 | 752 | 45 | 100% NC | 2 |
| DE | Khalid Kareem | MI | 4 | 187 | 13 | Bama 60% / MSU 20% | 5 |
| DE | Daniel Joseph | IL | 4 | 258 | 16 | UM 50% / MSU 50% | 2 |
| DT | Rashan Gary | NJ | 5 | 1 | 1 | Alabama 48% / UM 32% | 31 |
| DT | Chris Daniels | TX | 4 | 114 | 14 | TCU 56% , Texas A&M 33% | 9 |
| DT | Keyshon Camp | FL | 4 | 213 | 20 | Miami 50% / FSU 50% | 2 |
| LB | Dontavious Jackson | TX | 4 | 123 | 5 | Texas 55% / OU 27% | 12 |
| LB | Jaquan Yulee | VA | 4 | 151 | 7 | North Carolina 83% | 6 |
| LB | Caleb Kelly | CA | 5 | 18 | 3 | Oklahoma 100% | 16 |
| LB | Devin Bush Jr | FL | 4 | 217 | 9 | FSU 100% | 17 |
| LB | Camilo Eifler | CA | 4 | 265 | 19 | Washington 100% | 2 |
| LB | Jonathan Jones | FL | 4 | 467 | 33 | UM 78% / LSU 11% | 9 |
| LB | LaMar Winston | OR | 4 | 230 | 16 | 83% Oregon / 17% UW | 6 |
| CB | David Long | CA | 4 | 153 | 13 | Washington 50% / USC 33% | 6 |
| CB | Wayne Davis | VA | 3 | 329 | 30 | OSU 56% / VA Tech 44% | 9 |
| CB | Lavert Hill | MI | 4 | 179 | 17 | UM 56% / MSU 38% - PSU commit | 16 |
| CB | Lamar Jackson | CA | 3 | 473 | 29 | N/A | |
| CB | Tony Butler | OH | 3 | 598 | 54 | 60% OSU / 40% UM - Pitt commit | 5 |
| S | C.J. Pollard | CA | 4 | 251 | 10 | 100% USC | 9 |
| S | Andrew Pryts | PA | 3 | 372 | 21 | 100% Penn State | 11 |
| ATH | Devin White | LA | 4 | 86 | 8 | 83% LSU | 18 |
| K | Quinn Nordin | MI | 3 | 1100 | 1 | 100% UM | 11 |
*Bolded dudes who UM is a crystall ballz leader or 50/50.
I have the crystal ballz leader and # of predictions on the far right of the table. The # of predictions is helpful as a 75%/25% split among 4 people is not as useful as that same split among 20 people.
The part where I over analyze:
- Not much different then comments from last version. I am perplexed at the lack of interest by TEs in a Jim Harbaugh offense. And higher end wide receivers. There is some mild movement towards UM from South Carolina on Brad Hawkins but that's about it in that department. And #2 overall TE Devin Asiasi has gone from warm to cold.
- Still tons of work to do on the defense. A few new warm interests on the DL but nothing at all in the back 7 -- which was already void of interest. Lavert Hill seemed to be going UM's way a month ago and now MSU's way if he does flip. He is a King guy ... as is Corley. Corley seems to be headed to MSU, and supposedly they want to play together. Outside of that UM has almost no interest from anyone in the back 7 outside of Jonathan Jones. Who was the only player in this group of warm interests to fall substantially since the last 247 ranking - he fell 130 spots overall and 11 within his position group. There does not seem to be another LB in America with 1 crystal ball is in UM's direction - very strange considering all the playing time 2016 LBs could get very quickly at UM with all the losses in veterans UM will have at that position in the next 12 months. Similar comments for DBs - aside from Hill and Pitt commit Tony Butler (2 guys committed elsewhere) there doesnt seem to be a crystal ball in America for a DB pointing to UM at this point.
- Almost total lack of OH representation. 1 low rated OL and mid rated Pitt commit Butler...that's it. Very un-Michigan situation.
- Yes there is still time - but there are 28 less days then the last time we said there is time. Aside from DT Gary and DE Murphy ...both guys with personal connections to UM personnel there is not much action out there on the defense. Hopefully some movement happens around camp time in June.
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This may be unpopular given our expectations when we hired Harbaugh (and the media's expectations of a top 10 class), but I think it says something that many of Harbaugh's past players don't really go out of their way to speak highly of him unless nudged by the media. I mean Baldwin and Sherman may have been isolated incidents, but it seems to be telling now.
Harbaugh doesn't seem to be a "player friendly" coach like Hoke was. Shit, even David Shaw was cold as fuck when asked about Harbaugh returning to CFB on CBS. Dude straight up said "I don't wanna talk about/I have nothing to comment on."
Now this may all not matter if Michigan goes all Stanford circa 2007-2010 regardless of recruiting rankings, but it's still kinda disheartening at the moment.
It's not a common thing, but neither are former players, co-workers, and employees coming out blatantly going "ehhhh" whenever people ask them about Harbaugh. Your standard PR answer is "good guy, good coach etc." Instead in Harbaugh's case you get 2 former guys speaking ill of him and a former employee going "I don't wanna talk about it." How often does that happen over the former standard response?
Not saying it's a totally negative thing. I mean everyone loves Michael Jordan, and the dude's a total jerk but also GOAT. Harbaugh's personality could be the same due to his competitive nature as well.
Data? What data? My original comment was obvious projection from stated opinions from former Harbaugh players (Baldwin and Sherman) and co-worker (Shaw).
It's just my thoughts on the reason why there "seems" to be a lag in recruiting atm.
Considering all the other over the top reactions below in this thread, I think mine is fairly level headed.
No, my concern or thoughts are based on actual players and people talking about Harbaugh in an interesting/negative manner.
Now whether said thoughts are true are completely up in the air. So as I said before, they are just my thoughts on the situation.
I never stated them as fact, hence the "I think."
You're trying to invalidate an opinion, which is already admittedly a projection. Kudos to you I guess.
You should try invalidating the OP's thesis since he's actually providing examples and concrete info vs. my brainstorming.
I think it's just kind of rare that players immediately leave a program and speak positively of their former boss. Regardless of who it is, coaches often rub people the wrong way. And oftentimes, the split is not amicable - it involves the coach getting fired, the player getting traded, the player getting released, etc.
Harbaugh himself said that players will not necessarily realize their coaches' positive traits and impact until years down the road.
What did you expect from him? Harbaugh very nearly hired his S&C coach away from him. He might not be happy about Lyons either. That hardly makes him representative of his former assistants.
The only one that comes to mind is actually Lloyd Carr. Say what you will about him, but his players loved him, no doubt about that.
Harbaugh brought to UM Co-ordinators that were either employed at P5 programs (USC) or in high demand (TAMU, etc.). They chose to leave those opportunities to work with Harbaugh. And, as has been noted on this board...Harbaugh already has a extensive coaching tree and he gets invited to damn near everything and is doing everything...so someone must like him.
His former QB is participating in the Air Raid camp. Frank Gore spoke highly of him when he left the niners as did others. Even Boone's 'criticism' was in many ways complementary.
Basically, the only real criticisms I've seen are that he's a tough perfectionist that sometimes pushes so hard that he get's on peoples nerves....which is probably the type of thing a lot of people say about the vast majority of successful coaches.
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to Mr. ClassyPants
look at mr. personality Mark Dantonio. If there ever was a more joyless stick-in-the-ass as a football coach I've never seen it.
But. Win enough, year after year, and the recruits will hold their nose & show up.
shows a total lack of character for someone and it isn't Hoke.
This classless comment is actually getting upvoted? Sad.
It seems like most prejudices are unacceptable on this board, but everyone's cool with fat shaming. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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Well he was clearly not head coaching well at Michigan, but one of the current Dlinemen told me he's the best position coach he's ever had.
He shouted to the crowd 'Buckle Up!" yesterday or the day before yesterday.
While stars do matter I don't think it would be bad to get a bunch of lower ranked recruits who have the stomach to fight.
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Really thought we would have like 10-12 guys right now, with big time players wanting to play here.
Whats going on ? Why are things so slow right now? Seems like everyone is picking up kids right now.
people Michigan is still the place to go. He apparently is not as upset as has been indicated.
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But a lot of kids will be off the board by the "time we win" i.e. November 2015. Much harder to flip someone - esp a lot of these guys who will have been committed for many months (half a year+) then get an original committment. There are only so many top 300 players out there to be had and a lot are going to programs that are expected to be competing for conf championships. We're not competing with Vanderbilt for most of these guys.
Michigan has only had 2 or 3 10+ win seasons in these kids' ENTIRE lives.... so in the words of Mork "we are selling hope" at least to some extent.
Couple that with the facts that: 1. most of our coaching staff doesn't have recent ties to the HS coaching community 2. Our regional rivals are coming off impressive runs of success 3. We are targeting an unprecedented amount of kids from way out of the region who may wait for official visits 4. Many of the highest kids wait until late in the process to commit and you are faced with a slow start in recruiting.
Key to 2016 recruiting imo is landing top-quality recruits at Receiver, LB, and DT. TE would be a bonus but Harbaugh's offense will make most players look better as long as he gets enough numbers. OL needs numbers too, but if they can add Bredeson they will have 2 top 100-150 tackles which is a pretty good pull.
On the bright side - Sam Webb is hinting that we may have a silent-verbal from a 4-star, one that isn't visiting in June -- and rumblings look good for the receiver from NJ and the LB from Florida who are visiting in June.
I will do research on that...
No, in all seriousness I meant there are only so many uncommitted top 300s to be had //// and less when you consider those who will leave the south. Then add those who will seriously consider UM in any scenario on earth. And its a smaller #. So its not a huge pool to begin with and we are not in play for too many in any fashion at this point.
Waiting 6 months for this potential 8 win season to showcase to recruits when they are being recruited by programs projected for 10-11 this year is also notsomething I see as a viable way to win over a ton of recruits. We are going to have to be selling NFL development more than anything at this stage with the type of coaches we have.