1st Down Play Calling (with some data)
I debated if I should make this a diary or post it in a snowflake thread, but neither felt quite right to me. Mods feel free to move or delete as you see fit.
I was reading the offense and coaching snowflakes threads, and I noticed a ton of negativity on first down play calling, so I decided for some reason to actually chart first downs to see if these hot takes are justified (yes, I know hot takes need no justification, that's what makes them great. And yes, I know hot takes are impervious to data-based conclusion drawing, but I'm doing this anyway).
My observations:
1) Except for the final drive of the 4th (not charted/heavy run), the Run ratio on first down was 65%. Run ratio by half was basically the same.
2) The average/run was 6.65 yards/carry. The average on drop backs was 10.9 yards/drop back, for an overall average of 8 yards/play. Since averages can be deceiving because of chunk plays, the median was 4 for run only plays and for all plays. There was a difference by half. First half 1st down yardage was a lot better (despite only scoring 7 points in the half). 10.2 yds/play vs. 6.4.
3) Michigan used play action on almost all passes on first down except for WR screens. This helped on Eubanks 21 yard reception, Peoples-Jones 25 yard end around (fake to Higdon), and somewhat on Eubanks 24 yard reception. It played a role in Collins 36 yard reception, though that probably was further downfield and hard to say how much the safety was out of position. So, the runs between the tackles played a role in chunk plays by helping set them up.
4) Higdon specifically averaged 5.5 per carry on first down with 1 TD. His median carry (on a sample of 15 was 3 yards).
5) Higdon had a better first half, which could provide the rationale why the coaches continued going to him between the tackles in the second half. Higdon's first half first down runs went for 1, 8, 18, 4, 4, 30, 3. He even started the 2nd half well going for 7 and 5, before running into a brick wall going -3, 2, 1, 1, 0, 1.
So, in summary:
I am not an expert, by any means. My numbers may even be off, because it's late, and I'm slightly stoned. But here is how I feel after doing this deeper dive. Yes, our run/pass ratio on 1st down seems a little high. I have no idea how it compares to other teams, on average. However, an average of 6.6 yards/run and 10.9/pass seems good. Again, I did not bother to compare against other teams or large data sets. It just feels good. The median of 4 yards per play seems a little low for my liking, but not bad. So, while the ratio is high and there were more 0 and 1 yard results than I would have liked, the results through the first half justified the play calling. It's especially worth noting it did help set up (at some level) many chunk plays that went against tendency.
What's it mean for next week and beyond? I have no idea. I just wanted to see if the snowflake hot takes about terrible play calling (especially the run heavy first downs) were justified. My hot take (supported by some rudimentary analysis) on those hot takes is that I get where people are coming from, especially looking at the 4th quarter results, but overall I think the play calling on first down was actually sound, set up some manageable 2nd downs, and helped set up several 20+ yard gains.
September 30th, 2018 at 2:53 AM ^
Hmm, well okay then
I mean I hear what you're saying, I just want to see a little creativity at crucial times like trying to get a few yards instead of throwing it deep on 2nd and 9 or something like that.
I want to see versatility in the ebb and flow of the game, some of those runs just felt predictable is all.
September 30th, 2018 at 9:36 AM ^
I saw a little creativity. The last TD where Mason came in motion and then at the snap came across the formation and Higdon cut backside.
Then they used that exact same look and Patterson kept it instead to pick up solid yards in the last 2 min.
We all agree that those downs that led to 2nd and 9 were frustrating. Seeing the data here suggests that there was a point to completely change the approach on first down. Or not, I don’t know? Higdon lands on his shoulder instead of his butt and M is kneeling it instead of punting with 1 min to go.
September 30th, 2018 at 2:55 AM ^
It was so easy to predict the first down play. Probably 6-7 times in the late third and all of fourth quarter, I turned to the guys watching with me and said "they will hand the ball to Higdon for a dive play". Lo and behold, every time, I was right. And each run was for 1 yard. It was only the two times when they had 4 receivers bunched left, and sent Mason in motion right to lineup next to the TE, that they made any yardage on 1st down.
The predictability is astounding.
September 30th, 2018 at 3:15 AM ^
You are definitely a better coach than Fitzpatrick as I’m going to guess his plan wasn’t to let us get nearly 7 yards per run on first down
September 30th, 2018 at 9:24 AM ^
You mean Gerald Fitzpatrick?
September 30th, 2018 at 9:59 AM ^
Lol, yes, Pat Gerald Fitzpatrick Fitzgerald
September 30th, 2018 at 3:55 AM ^
Well they definitely weren't dive plays, that's for sure. But the general sentiment is correct.
September 30th, 2018 at 7:49 AM ^
Higdon up the middle on 1?
September 30th, 2018 at 10:12 AM ^
We were also trying to bleed clock on those middle runs on first down. By that point we were in the mode of trying to make 3rd manageable. I think Fitz just did a good job having The Gaz stunt to the interior and back-fill with Paddy. That disruption was targeted to keep us from getting the 3 or 4 yard gain on first down. That’s why the plays where Patterson kept it and Higdon cut back were effective. Everything is a chess match. You can’t just dial up the “right” call in every situation - there is another team and coach out there afterall.
September 30th, 2018 at 11:13 AM ^
We were losing when they were trying to bleed clock, though.
September 30th, 2018 at 3:05 AM ^
Thought we were alright
September 30th, 2018 at 3:07 AM ^
I have no problem running it on first down more than usual. My issue was that every first down DPJ and Collins would come running off the field for Ronnie Bell and a fullback. It screamed “we’re running the ball!”
I get it’s to establish tendency but even deep into the fourth they kept doing it and NW seemed to figure it out. But then on 2nd and long we’d have a big play so I can’t complain too much.
September 30th, 2018 at 6:04 AM ^
I didnt notice tht, but it's interesting. One thing to think about is that sideline dime from DCaff to Bell. Maybe they're setting that up? Not sure.
September 30th, 2018 at 3:12 AM ^
The conservative play calling IMHO is trying to save at all costs different looks for tougher opponents. This is what I truly want to believe.
September 30th, 2018 at 8:33 AM ^
Why not? Isn't this what Sparty does every year?
Every year they look like garbage early, then come out and look much better against Michigan.
I don't think they are the 2013/14 version of MSU this year, but they'll definitely look okay vs. Michigan. Is it really so far-fetched to believe that Harbaugh hasn't learned to do the same?
September 30th, 2018 at 8:54 AM ^
JH did the same thing in the SMU game, at least in the 1st half, against a similar 8-9 man front LBs crashing into gaps without any hesitation style D.
But JH did a lot of the same stuff yesterday when M was on the road and trailing for most of the game.
So this is just what JH is and what he does.
The problem is not the run/pass ratio. The problem is that certain types of running and passing plays were not used to counter what NW D was doing.
Problems...
1. When running the play calling is often way to predictable and easy for a D to counter. Outside of maybe two or three exception, where were the misdirection running plays yesterday? Where were the run calls that would punish a D for so aggressively playing to stop the between the tackles runs?
2. The passing game seems to lack plays with short and quick passes. Why? That is a useful tool to have is certain situations. Why not more RPOs? We heard about them from August practice pressers, but...they are not really a big part of the offense. They are treating them more like a gadget play that they will use a few times per game.
If not for some individual play making by Patterson (both feet and arm) on M's final scoring drive, that would have been an L. That drive very easily could have stalled.
Look folks, calling a few more creative plays here and there--such as a misdirection running play on the last drive to kill the clock--would not require JH to put a huge amount of stuff on film.
The reality is that with a small lead in the 4th (and even when trailing in a one score game on the road in the 4th!) JH gets very conservative and predictable with his play calling.
It is not really about trying to save stuff for MSU, OSU, PSU, Wisc. It is just the way JH is. It is what he does.
September 30th, 2018 at 10:08 AM ^
Sadly I think you are right. He thinks this is the 80's with no scholarship limits and "we're Michigan and we are bigger, stronger, and tougher than you" still works.
September 30th, 2018 at 11:23 AM ^
No. That was Hoke's mentality. I've seen nothing out of Harbaugh that suggests he's out of touch with the modern game.
I think he predicted a defensive struggle, and didn't predict that our defense would show up 17 minutes after kickoff.
September 30th, 2018 at 5:06 PM ^
I'd love to see some analysis regarding looks and personnel groupings tipping certain plays. There's no doubt our opponents generally know what's coming much of the time.
We just don't seem to care. Bigger/Stronger/Tougher. Won't work later on in the year though, just like always.
September 30th, 2018 at 5:09 AM ^
The predictability made the couple of critical big gainers possible. Curse though one might have at the repeated first down runs into the teeth of the NW D, the payoff was considerable.
Things might have looked a little different if Evans wasn't injured.
September 30th, 2018 at 8:35 AM ^
All I needed to see was every person on NW looking right at Karan Higdon without the ball on replay of Patterson's keeper to understand the purpose of those runs.
But hey, be angry everyone. BAWWWWWW! UNACCEPTABLE!
September 30th, 2018 at 8:42 AM ^
Introducing logic and perspective into their narrative will bring accusations of gang rape.
September 30th, 2018 at 9:08 AM ^
Scooter you are arguing against a straw man. No one is saying that JH should not purse the basic strategy of setting up the opposing D for a counter by running his base plays. So you are arguing against...no one.
The point is that the creative plays, and even the counters, were very rare yesterday. Too rare.
In addition, the situational play calling was at times terrible. Example: Both goal-to-go drives that ended in field goals. Example: On the last offensive drive to kill the clock the play calling was very predictable and easy for NW to defend.
You are not running base plays to set up a counter when you are in a goal-to-go situation, or when you are trying to get one more 1st down to deny NW one last possession.
September 30th, 2018 at 9:56 AM ^
I agree on the two FG red zone series. Watching some of the red zone pass plays ND drew up last night seem like the kind of things Collins/Gentry/DPJ could do. Not to mention Stanford’s simple, I creative, jump ball to a big body that worked perfectly fine.
I don’t entirely agree on the clock kill strategy. The Patterson run was the same formation and motion as Higdon’s 2nd TD but this time Patterson kept. That set up Higdon landing a foot short from being able to kneel the game away.
We would all love to see some kind of counter where Higdon grabs 15 yards and the kneel down is obvious but I don’t know what the play call is to be that creative and effective.
September 30th, 2018 at 5:10 PM ^
Ghost with the perfect response.
September 30th, 2018 at 10:07 AM ^
Do you hear yourself? Good coaches losing on the road intentionally waste a play running for 1 or fewer yards (leaving themselves in 2nd & 9 or 3rd & 6) between 6 and 8 times a game to set up a 20 yard run sometime in the future?
Where does this belief stem from that you have to run crappy plays to set up good ones? I didn't realize this was the secret sauce Alabama and OSU were using all these years. This kind of logic says Jim took the loss at ND to preserve his "good" plays. He was saving the old "7 plays, 7 yards, then sting em for 20" to bail the team out on the road at NW.
September 30th, 2018 at 6:09 AM ^
I think the issue with the play calling was more at the end of the game when northwestern sold out to stop the run and we kept just running it right up the gut. 6 first down runs in a row we got no yards. It was painful to watch.
i didn’t have a problem with the run game before NW had sold out
September 30th, 2018 at 8:36 AM ^
This is on the money. The other issue was Shea. He was missing open guys or failing to read them almost the entire game. If thAt is going to be his worst performance of the year, however, i’ll Take it.
September 30th, 2018 at 8:45 AM ^
And what did it get us? A huge run by Shea when the NW DE sold out to stop Higdon and less than 40 seconds with no TO for NW to win or tie the game. Yes that was some stupid play calling.
September 30th, 2018 at 7:04 AM ^
Exactly. During that stretch I kept waiting for the play action on first down, but it never came. However, the winning TD and first down to effectively ice the game.did come, so OK.
September 30th, 2018 at 8:00 AM ^
Thanks for putting this together. Further proof that emotional venting on game threads is not just annoying, but it is also usually wrong. It would be fun if people were given some accountability for their posts hating on Harbaugh and certain players when something does not go that fan’s way early enough for that fan’s liking. Running into a stacked front achieved the ultimate goal - win. Also, another game with minimal hits on our QB is something to be celebrated. Running on first down keeps him upright and helps to wear down the defensive line. NW has a legitimately good run D, and we put a very respectable 180 rushing yards on them. Ironically, we got in trouble in the first quarter offensively by being creative and not running straight forward carries on first down.
September 30th, 2018 at 8:13 AM ^
yes, agree. And further: some of Higdon's last carries were in the "clock's running out, we're going to run for sure" mode. Sure, it would be great that even then, we could get more yards. But that's tough sledding for anyone, much less Michigan.
September 30th, 2018 at 8:38 AM ^
And btw, Higdon was incredibly close to icing the game on his third down run when it was "run out the clock" mode.
September 30th, 2018 at 8:41 AM ^
Ah yes. The critics, once again, show their ignorance. And fans seem to think that officiating is some distant, ancillary aspect to a game's outcome. And here, officiating was once again a very big deal...and this is coming from an official. I never officiated sports that I hadn't played and coached extensively in. The egregiously bad calls these past few games, to me, are mind-boggling...do these officials have any sense of the athletic endeavor???
September 30th, 2018 at 8:22 AM ^
“I am not an expert, by any means. My numbers may even be off, because it's late, and I'm slightly stoned.”
Going to start using this disclaimer at work.
September 30th, 2018 at 8:24 AM ^
MGoBlog is one of the most miserable places on earth on gameday if we aren’t blowing out our opponent. Winning a B1G game on the road is hard to do and Northwestern is a good football team who brought their best game on a national stage.
September 30th, 2018 at 8:38 AM ^
Id give you a million MGoBlog points for this if I could. One of the truest statements ever made on this blog.
September 30th, 2018 at 8:47 AM ^
Agreed. Winning in league play is a big deal at any level. The familiarity with your opponent is literally game-changing. NW had two weeks to prepare, they were at home and the officials were once again godawful...and Michigan played mediocre football. The "quadfecta" almost did them in.
September 30th, 2018 at 9:42 AM ^
People are right to be concerned that the offense was just mediocre.
NW is probably the 6th or 7th best team in the Big Ten (sort of between Iowa and NW for 6th at this point).
Winning by 3 against the 6th or 7th best in the Big Ten is...a legit cause for concern.
Officiating was really bad on 2 calls. Otherwise it was just the normal officiating that is not great but is a normal part of the game.
D played great after first three NW drives.
Offense has to be a lot better (less predictable play calling) starting in 13 days...
September 30th, 2018 at 10:22 AM ^
The same Iowa that was beating Wisconsin at the end of the 3rd quarter last week?
September 30th, 2018 at 3:07 PM ^
Yes, that Iowa. That Iowa if probably no. 6 in the Big Ten right now.
1. OSU.
2. PSU.
3. Michigan
4. Wisconsin
5. MSU
6. Iowa
7. NW
8 and beyond: Who cares?
September 30th, 2018 at 10:08 AM ^
I'm just a "Homer" but I think losing that RB to retirement actually gave them a little boost yesterday. Combine that with a home game on a weird field in a "night game" type setting, coming off a bye week. It would be great if Michigan was so good that those type of intangibles didn't matter, but Michigan isn't there yet. Our talented offense is still young. They're probably not going to light it on fire every week .
September 30th, 2018 at 12:08 PM ^
No....stop. Northwestern is bad and every other team they played managed to score more points than us yesterday. Fucking Akron scored 39!! Duke's defense held them to 7!!
They haven't played anyone and a narrow win doesn't bode well for us at all going into the teeth of the schedule.
September 30th, 2018 at 8:32 AM ^
Your data shows the problem clearly, look at 1st down on the last six drives. We go -3, 2, 1, 1, 0, 1. Northwestern adjusted to take away whatever was working in the first half, and we should have started passing on first down after that adjustment. Instead we kept wasting first down when the game was on the line.
September 30th, 2018 at 8:37 AM ^
But Michigan sucks because they didnt dominate from the get go and needed halftime adjustments to stop NW? Im not pointing at you, because I have no idea if you were one of these people, but Ive seen some takes that said similar and your post brought it to mind.
There are a great many pie in the sky Michigan fans that truly suck and give us all a bad name.
September 30th, 2018 at 9:45 AM ^
Pretty sure it was the -3, 2, 1, 1, 0, 1 on the last six 1st and 10 plays that is giving M a bad name.
September 30th, 2018 at 8:33 AM ^
I want to know how many of the people here that are railing against the play calling and, more specifically, the run calls on 1st down, were screaming at their TVs to run the damn football after going 3 and out with three straight passes on the opening drive.
September 30th, 2018 at 8:39 AM ^
All of them.
September 30th, 2018 at 9:49 AM ^
So...one series where pass plays did not get a first down proves that no one can criticize running between the tackles for -3, 2, 1, 1, 0, 1 on the last 6 first and tens of the game as too predictable and easy to defend?
Got it.