Not only do things set up nicely as described above, Meyer has done this transition a few times like Hoke. Couple this with getting a six week head start over Hokes schedule, Meyer will get a fast start. Hopefully there is still at least a handslapping from the NCAA to provide at least one bump in the road. Otherwise I would put 50/50 odds on a rematch of the 2012 version of The Game next December.
Urban Meyers Path to Success in Year One.
URBAN MEYERS PATH TO SUCCESS IN YEAR ONE
Urban Meyer has a way. It’s difficult to pinpoint exactly what Meyer brings to the table because he brings a multitude of desired qualities that any school would seek. Be it charisma, pedigree, or an unrelenting desire to win, Meyer should be able to quickly right the ship in Columbus after a year of scandal and uncertainty. With Meyer standing at the podium, flashing his trademark smile and describing a Buckeye team that would compete as ferociously as his teams at Florida, Buckeye fans nationwide swooned. With that, the first seeds of success were planted at the Woody Hayes Athletic Center. Meyer won the press conference, a key victory in establishing the tone of the future at Ohio State. But the path to success is often determined by how you compete in your first year. Fortunately for Ohio State, the slate is set for an instant turnaround in Year One.
It would be dishonest to discuss Ohio State's transition without in some ways comparing it to the very same process of its arch rival Michigan. Brady Hoke won his first press conference and set the tone for the season ahead by consistently hammering home the importance of the Ohio State game into the minds of his players. Meyer, who cut his teeth coaching at Ohio State, understands how important The Game is in defining his legacy and his tenure as Head Coach. Faced with a similar rebuilding process this season, Hoke transformed a uninspired, poorly coached 7-5 team, fresh off of a 52-14 lashing in the Gator Bowl, to a fundamentally sound football team that finished 10-2 and finds itself on the brink of it’s first BCS bid since 2006. Hoke was also recently awarded the Hayes-Schembechler award for Coach of the Year for turning the Wolverines around in such a short span. But make no mistake, Hoke, despite his constant emphasis on beating Ohio State, benefited from a schedule that was favorable for success. The Wolverines finished the season 8-0 at home and only faced one truly taxing road game, a game they lost to Michigan State, en route to 10 wins.
Meyer's path in Year One is eerily similar: Ohio State travels away from the Columbus only once in its first six games with a late September trip to East Lansing to face a rebuilding Spartan side that loses its starting quarterback, both starting wide receivers, and the potential early exit of tweener first rounder Jerel Worthy. A 5-0 start with a home showdown against Nebraska the following week would be a great start for Meyer and Co. in his first season. Perhaps the other most notable obstacle to such a start would be when Ohio State faces a potentially intriguing out of conference matchup with Cal. Cal has struggled mightily on the defensive front and Ohio State should likely be favored in the matchup.
Michigan had the luxury of returning talent at quarterback in Denard Robinson as does Meyer with dynamic Big 10 Freshman of the Year Braxton Miller. Meyer made it abundantly clear in his presser that meeting Braxton Miller was priority one and unsurprisingly so as his history of molding young quarterbacks is nearly unparalleled. He turned Alex Smith into the top overall pick, harnessed Chris Leak’s talents in a way that Ron Zook’s staff never could, and also notoriously make Tim Tebow a Heisman Trophy winner and two-time national champion. Couple that with the wealth of young defensive talent returning for the Buckeyes, most notably Ryan Shazier, and a 10-0 start with a de facto Leaders Division title game looming in Madison the following week is certainly on the table. If that scenario plays out, Meyer will have done enough, even before The Game, to potentially be the second recipient of the Hayes-Schembechler Award.
Consider this: Had Rich Rodriquez lasted one more year at Michigan and the Wolverines ultimately hired Hoke for the 2012 season, Hoke's first year as coach would be significantly more daunting solely because of the schedule. Michigan opens its 2012 slate against Alabama at Cowboy Stadium and faces road trips to Notre Dame, Nebraska and Ohio State. It would be difficult to imagine the Wolverines finishing the season 10-2 despite having senior leadership on offense. Urban Meyer is an amazing coach and relentless recruiter. He will bring top-tier talent to Columbus and undoubtedly have high-ranking recruiting classes. However, Urban Meyer, for all his talents, will benefit from having a favorable schedule in Year One as much, if not more, than Brady Hoke did at Michigan.
The schedule does set up well for ohio state and the young d will continue to improve. HOWEVER...they lose A LOT of offense and will struggle to put up points. Braxton Miller can't do everything on his own and that was clear with no Herron or Posey. But in 2012, they have no Herron, no Posey and no good replacements for them. They also lose their 2 best starting OL. That line had the most sacks against them in 2011 and losing their best two OL doesn't help improve. They will struggle to score points.
That being said, they are still a 9-10 win team based on a weak schedule and a better head coach but I am still not worried about that team in 2012.
Good answer. You raised the most important points as well. The team will take a step back on offense across the board no matter what system they run. Interesting comparisons can be made with his Florida teams. At first he had the top coordinators in the country with an existing team and beat Ohio but lost to Michigan, after 2 of the top recruiting classes in the country but losing both assistants senior Tim Tebow led the team to a mediocre season.
With Tebow, Florida had exactly one mediocre (9-4 in 2007). They were 13-1 in each of his other seasons. In his senior year their only loss was to eventual champion Alabama in the SEC title game.
His last team in 2010 was mediocre, yes, but Tebow was in the NFL then.
You've outlined the upside of Urban Meyer pretty well, and his schedule does look favorable in 2012, but what you fail to mention or address are the potential downsides:
1) Different expectations for a team that may be 6-6 in 2011, but was 11-1 in 2010 and 10-2 in 2009 and 10-2 in 2008 vs a team that was 7-5 in 2010 and 5-7 in 2009 and 3-9 in 2008.
2) NCAA sanctions are not yet announced. Yes, they may be weak or nothing, but no one knows yet.
Urban may do well, but a wait and see attitude is best at this point.
I agree that based on OSU's past performance in 08', 09 and 10'. I was simply trying to make a 1st year comparison for both coaches based on their schedules in the first year. We don't know the sanctions, if any, but by the looks of it it seems like it will only be a slap on the wrist and Meyer will start building his team.
Seems he did not get a lot of it in Florida, does he expect more at OSU????
Besides, I understand that to win at OSU you have to follow Tressel's path and make a deal with this guy:
that our home schedule must be changed. There is nothing that can be done about the B1G games ... but for several years now we've had either 75% of our "big" games at home or 25%. This year it was 3 (nd, Nebraska and tsio) and next year its msu alone.
I for one think its past time to tell nd that they are off the every year rotation. I say 2 on (home and home) and 4 off. This allows UofM to schedule a home and home with LSU (pick any SEC but I like LSU) and another home and home with Texas or Oklahoma .... somebody, anybody try to tell me this wouldn't be better than some team "always returning to glory" ever freaking year!
I don't care it you want to drop ND, but why would you want to pick up an SEC team?
You like losses?
You like using one of our 4 non-conference games to go play in a stadium our players have never seen before?
You just like to see "marquee matchups"? That's what bowl games are for.
The preseason is for cupcakes. You get some wins, build some confidence, work out some kinks, and go into Big 10 play ready to fight for the championship. Then, you go play your SEC team in a bowl game.
I'm going to have to respectfully disagree with you here. Preseason is not for cupcakes, especially when the BCS can ultimately come down to playing an Alabama vs. Slippery Rock. I'd rather play the best teams and lose than to blow out a FCS team. The only way to get better, is to play better opponents.
According to College Football Data Warehouse, as of the end of the 2007 season Michigan's record against the SEC is 19-5-1.
the 2011 Gator Bowl never happened ...
I don't mean we can't beat any SEC teams. What I'm saying, and I think we can all agree on, is that any SEC team has a better chance to beat us than the MAC teams we currently schedule. Why take the chance? More prestige? If Michigan get's any more prestigious, they'll be me.
I just don't think we should schedule any really threatening games, particularly on the road. Our conference schedule is good enough that if we run the table, we'll have no problem getting a shot at the NC.
ND is ok, because while they can always spring an upset, we generally beat them. And, because they are constantly on the schedule, the away game isn't particularly daunting -- upperclassmen will have played at their house twice. It's not like going to Baton Rouge for a one-off, which is completely foreign territory.
I don't see how we gain anything from playing home-and-homes with SEC teams. A big win every once in a while. Probably not worth the early season losses that we'll get roughly 50% of the time. Why handicap ourselves that way?
For the guy who said we used to play Miami and FSU, sure. But all 4 games against those teams were in our house. I'll schedule SEC teams, but I won't travel down there. And there's the rub. They won't agree to anything but a home-away or neutral site one-off.
But I guarantee none of it will matter if he can't beat Michigan, which is no obviously no given for Urby.
You know, we all have this unrealistic fear of UM (sorry, had to do it), much the same way many Ohio fans did of RR when we hired him. If you recall, the press was overall impressed with our hire of RR while the press has been mixed at best for Ohio's hire of UM. He could well flop as bad or worse than RR. RR was faced with a less talented roster than UM, which means UM's failure may come in the form of 6-7, 7-6 the first couple years instead of our start with RR. That kind of start would be considered an epic failure and would not be tolerated in Columbus. UM would find a reason to quit for sure. This is every bit as likely as Ohio being 9-3 or 10-2 next year. We all need to keep calm...give UM a chance to fail like we know he can.
Let's not call him "UM". Just no.
It could get really REALLY confusing around here if we start referring to Ohio's Big Man as UM.
In truly tasteless fashion, the folks over at tigerdroppings.com call him UM. But they also add the first letter of the word Coach. (Coach Urban Meyer)
Ohio has not had very much success with relatively big name hires. Cooper was hired after taking ASU to its first and only Rose Bowl, then fired when he could not beat Ohio's biggest rival. Earl Bruce of the goofy hat fame was somewhat of a big name due to his success at Iowa State and he was fired. We all know the Woody story.
However, Ohio had huge success with Tressel, who seemed like a huge reach coming from Youngstown State.
In a somewhat similar manner, Bump Elliott was a big name in Michigan football and not a successful coach. The line of successful UM head coaches commenced with hiring the unknown Bo and continued until Martin hired the big name Rich Rod.
I think it will be very difficult to handle the massive expectations of Urban Meyer and his health issues seem to be related to stress and overworking. How does he make that work at Ohio?
Meyer is so fortunate to have what Rich Rod did not: a good quarterback. The poor guy was saddled with Threet and Nick Sheridan. Might it have been different if Jason Forcier did not transfer to Stanford? He could not possibly have been worse than those two.
The game is won in the trenches, or so I've been told. A big difference between Meyer's first year and Hoke's may well be in the offensive line. Hoke had returning starters Lewan, Omameh, Molk, and Huyge. OSU loses Brewster, Adams, and Shugarts. I may be desperately grasping for straws, but I wouldn't discount this fact.
Especially if the last two recruits are on board, Garnett and Diamond...
I disagree that OSU looks set to dominate in 2012. Their defense will be improved with so many returning starters, but the offense looks like Miller and not much else. They lose their only difference-making RB and WR in Herron and Posey, and their 3 best OL in Adams, Brewster, and Shugarts. Their offensive situation looks a bit like ours would have in 2008 if you substitute a sophomore D Robinson for Threet.
Now in 2013, I think they win at least 10.
to Meyer's path to success at OSU by reading the board here.
Emphasize "The Game" more than opposing coach.
Win said game clearly due to new-found emphasis
Now that Urban Meyer is in charge, we can add item #1 to the over/under list for OSU this off-season:
1. # of players arrested:
2. # of players caught taking cash for memorabilia:
3. # of players caught taking cash for dinners, birthday parties, etc.:
4. # of new tattoos:
5. # of free rounds of golf:
6. # of cars purchased at deep discount:
7. # of self reports:
8. # of coaches caught covering up said acts:
9. # of claims of having the world's best compliance department:
10. # of presidents fired by head coach:
Did the NCAA even investigate the car deals or Talbott's relationship with OSU?
It is amazing that it appears that OSU is going to get almost no punishment after all of the sh*t that came out in the last year, not to mention the sh*t they got away with during the Clarett/Troy Smith years.
Meyer will have to deal with the kid that he wanted to convert to a defensive back, who will be the senior QB for Michigan!
We don't know which Urban Meyer the Buckeyes got, and we have no idea what the sanctions will be. And it remains to be seen how well Braxton Miller will develop in Meyer's offfense. He will be learning a new system for the second year in a row, and Ohio might be full of typical Big Ten stiffs who are very strong and fast in a straight line, but not very agile, which wouldn't be great for his system.
Three years ago, I would have been petrified at this hire. At this point in time, it could still turn out to be our worst nightmare, but it isn't guaranteed. If Braxton MIller kills the Wolverines as a senior while Shane Morris is getting his bleep handed to him, it could be a very bad sign. Really, though, you never know what is going to happen in football. Hopefully, Meyer has lost his taste for 100-hour weeks and "retires" again within a year or two.
Are you sure you aren't a closet OSU fan?
This was practically a love letter to Urban Meyer and an exact copy of what has been running through every Bucknut's head since Meyer was rumored to be the next OSU coach.
Jesus God no. I simply looked at OSU's schedule, did a little research and made an opinion based on Hoke's first year and the potential of Meyer's first year.
I used to live in Gainesville, I know that Meyer is a good coach. I hope that I'm wrong.
If Ohio does have a lot of wins coming into The Game, it will make Michigan's victory all the sweeter.
Ohio will probably be favored in all but three of their games leading up to The Game, At the Spartans and Badgers, and at home against Nebraska. If they come in with 8 or 9 wins, it'll make the Wolverine victory over them all the sweeter.
the awesome use of white space?
FUCK URBAN MEYER
I'm not worried about Urban Myth Meyer. He's overrated and over paid. Brady Hoke will kick his ass in the Hoof Print (I mean the Horse Shoe) and send him back to the football retiremet home!